25 year trends in cancer incidence and mortality among adults aged 35-69 years in the UK, 1993-2018: retrospective secondary analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine and interpret trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality for all cancers combined and for the most common cancer sites in adults aged 35-69 years. DESIGN: Retrospective secondary data analysis. DATA SOURCES: Cancer registration data, cancer mortality and national population data from the Office for National Statistics, Public Health Wales, Public Health Scotland, Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, NHS England, and the General Register Office for Northern Ireland. SETTING: 23 cancer sites were included in the analysis in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Men and women aged 35-69 years diagnosed with or who died from cancer between 1993 to 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Change in cancer incidence and mortality age standardised rates over time. RESULTS: The number of cancer cases in this age range rose by 57% for men (from 55 014 cases registered in 1993 to 86 297 in 2018) and by 48% for women (60 187 to 88 970) with age standardised rates showing average annual increases of 0.8% in both sexes. The increase in incidence was predominantly driven by increases in prostate (male) and breast (female) cancers. Without these two sites, all cancer trends in age standardised incidence rates were relatively stable. Trends for a small number of less common cancers showed concerning increases in incidence rates, for example, in melanoma skin, liver, oral, and kidney cancers. The number of cancer deaths decreased over the 25 year period, by 20% in men (from 32 878 to 26 322) and 17% in women (28 516 to 23 719); age standardised mortality rates reduced for all cancers combined by 37% in men (-2.0% per year) and 33% in women (-1.6% per year). The largest decreases in mortality were noted for stomach, mesothelioma, and bladder cancers in men and stomach and cervical cancers and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in women. Most incidence and mortality changes were statistically significant even when the size of change was relatively small. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality had a substantial reduction during the past 25 years in both men and women aged 35-69 years. This decline is likely a reflection of the successes in cancer prevention (eg, smoking prevention policies and cessation programmes), earlier detection (eg, screening programmes) and improved diagnostic tests, and more effective treatment. By contrast, increased prevalence of non-smoking risk factors are the likely cause of the observed increased incidence for a small number of specific cancers. This analysis also provides a benchmark for the following decade, which will include the impact of covid-19 on cancer incidence and outcomes.

Use of chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on international variation in chemotherapy use, despite it being a key treatment type for some patients with cancer. Here, we aimed to examine the presence and size of such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), eight Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring from within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in chemotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 893 461 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 111 569 (12·5%) did not meet the inclusion criteria, and 781 892 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in chemotherapy use for all studied cancers, with wide 95% PIs: 47·5 to 81·2 (pooled estimate 66·4%) for ovarian cancer, 34·9 to 59·8 (47·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 22·3 to 62·3 (40·8%) for rectal cancer, 25·7 to 55·5 (39·6%) for stomach cancer, 17·2 to 56·3 (34·1%) for pancreatic cancer, 17·9 to 49·0 (31·4%) for lung cancer, 18·6 to 43·8 (29·7%) for colon cancer, and 3·5 to 50·7 (16·1%) for liver cancer. For patients with stage 3 colon cancer, the interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with colon cancer (95% PI 38·5 to 78·4; 60·1%). Patients aged 85-99 years had 20-times lower odds of chemotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with very large interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio 0·05; 95% PI 0·01 to 0·19). There was large variation in median time to first chemotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation, particularly for rectal cancer (95% PI -15·5 to 193·9 days; pooled estimate 89·2 days). Patients aged 85-99 years had slightly shorter median time to first chemotherapy compared with those aged 65-74 years, consistently between jurisdictions (-3·7 days, 95% PI -7·6 to 0·1). INTERPRETATION: Large variation in use and time to chemotherapy initiation were observed between the participating jurisdictions, alongside large and variable age group differences in chemotherapy use. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, the underlying reasons for these patterns need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Whole-population trends in pathology-confirmed cancer incidence in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 epidemic interrupted normal cancer diagnosis procedures. Population-based cancer registries report incidence at least 18 months after it happens. Our goal was to make more timely estimates by using pathologically confirmed cancers (PDC) as a proxy for incidence. We compared the 2020 and 2021 PDC with the 2019 pre-pandemic baseline in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (NI). METHODS: Numbers of female breast (ICD-10 C50), lung (C33-34), colorectal (C18-20), gynaecological (C51-58), prostate (C61), head and neck (C00-C14, C30-32), upper gastro-intestinal (C15-16), urological (C64-68), malignant melanoma (C43), and non-melanoma skin (NMSC) (C44) cancers were counted. Multiple pairwise comparisons generated incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS: Data were accessible within 5 months of the pathological diagnosis date. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of pathologically confirmed malignancies (excluding NMSC) decreased by 7315 (14.1 %). Scotland experienced early monthly declines of up to 64 % (colorectal cancers, April 2020 versus April 2019). Wales experienced the greatest overall change in 2020, but Northern Ireland experienced the quickest recovery. The pandemic's effects varied by cancer type, with no significant change in lung cancer diagnoses in Wales in 2020 (IRR 0.97 (95 % CI 0.90-1.05)), followed by an increase in 2021 (IRR 1.11 (1.03-1.20). CONCLUSION: PDC are useful in reporting cancer incidence quicker than cancer registrations. Temporal and geographical differences between participating countries mirrored differences in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating face validity and the potential for quick cancer diagnosis assessment. To verify their sensitivity and specificity against the gold standard of cancer registrations, however, additional research is required.

Risk factors and prognostic implications of diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission (emergency presentation): an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Greater understanding of international cancer survival differences is needed. We aimed to identify predictors and consequences of cancer diagnosis through emergency presentation in different international jurisdictions in six high-income countries. METHODS: Using a federated analysis model, in this cross-sectional population-based study, we analysed cancer registration and linked hospital admissions data from 14 jurisdictions in six countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK), including patients with primary diagnosis of invasive oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer during study periods from Jan 1, 2012, to Dec 31, 2017. Data were collected on cancer site, age group, sex, year of diagnosis, and stage at diagnosis. Emergency presentation was defined as diagnosis of cancer within 30 days after an emergency hospital admission. Using logistic regression, we examined variables associated with emergency presentation and associations between emergency presentation and short-term mortality. We meta-analysed estimates across jurisdictions and explored jurisdiction-level associations between cancer survival and the percentage of patients diagnosed as emergencies. FINDINGS: In 857 068 patients across 14 jurisdictions, considering all of the eight cancer sites together, the percentage of diagnoses through emergency presentation ranged from 24·0% (9165 of 38 212 patients) to 42·5% (12 238 of 28 794 patients). There was consistently large variation in the percentage of emergency presentations by cancer site across jurisdictions. Pancreatic cancer diagnoses had the highest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (46·1% [30 972 of 67 173 patients]), with the jurisdictional range being 34·1% (1083 of 3172 patients) to 60·4% (1317 of 2182 patients). Rectal cancer had the lowest percentage of emergency presentations on average overall (12·1% [10 051 of 83 325 patients]), with a jurisdictional range of 9·1% (403 of 4438 patients) to 19·8% (643 of 3247 patients). Across the jurisdictions, older age (ie, 75-84 years and 85 years or older, compared with younger patients) and advanced stage at diagnosis compared with non-advanced stage were consistently associated with increased emergency presentation risk, with the percentage of emergency presentations being highest in the oldest age group (85 years or older) for 110 (98%) of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, and in the most advanced (distant spread) stage category for 98 (97%) of 101 jurisdiction-cancer site strata with available information. Across the jurisdictions, and despite heterogeneity in association size (I2=93%), emergency presenters consistently had substantially greater risk of 12-month mortality than non-emergency presenters (odds ratio >1·9 for 112 [100%] of 112 jurisdiction-cancer site strata, with the minimum lower bound of the related 95% CIs being 1·26). There were negative associations between jurisdiction-level percentage of emergency presentations and jurisdiction-level 1-year survival for colon, stomach, lung, liver, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer, with a 10% increase in percentage of emergency presentations in a jurisdiction being associated with a decrease in 1-year net survival of between 2·5% (95% CI 0·28-4·7) and 7·0% (1·2-13·0). INTERPRETATION: Internationally, notable proportions of patients with cancer are diagnosed through emergency presentation. Specific types of cancer, older age, and advanced stage at diagnosis are consistently associated with an increased risk of emergency presentation, which strongly predicts worse prognosis and probably contributes to international differences in cancer survival. Monitoring emergency presentations, and identifying and acting on contributing behavioural and health-care factors, is a global priority for cancer control. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; the Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

COVID-19 and cancer screening in Scotland: A national and coordinated approach to minimising harm.

Screening is an important component of cancer control internationally. In Scotland, the National Health Service Scotland provides screening programmes for cervical, bowel and breast cancers. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the suspension of these programmes in March 2020. We describe the integrated approach to managing the impact of the pandemic on cancer screening programmes in Scotland throughout 2020. We outline the policy context and decision-making process leading to suspension, and the criteria and framework informing the subsequent, staggered, restart in subsequent months. The decision to suspend screening services in order to protect screening invitees and staff, and manage NHS capacity, was made after review of numbers of screening participants likely to be affected, and the potential number of delayed cancer diagnoses. Restart principles and a detailed route map plan were developed for each programme, seeking to ensure broad consistency of approach across the programmes and nationally. Early data indicates bowel, breast and cervical screening participation has increased since restart. Primary care has had to adapt to new infection prevention control measures for delivery of cervical screening. Cancer charities provided cancer intelligence and policy briefs to national bodies and Scottish Government, as well as supporting the public, patients and screening invitees through information and awareness campaigns. Emerging from the pandemic, there is recognition of the need and the opportunity to transform and renew both cancer and screening services in Scotland, and in particular to address long-standing workforce capacity problems through innovation and investment, and to continue to prioritise addressing health inequalities.

Mortality related to novel psychoactive substances in Scotland, 2012: an exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: The growth of novel psychoactive substances (NPS) over the last decade, both in terms of availability and consumption, is of increasing public health concern. Despite recent increases in related mortality, the circumstances surrounding and characteristics of individuals involved in NPS deaths at a population level remain relatively unknown. METHODS: The Scottish National Drug Related Death Database (NDRDD) collects a wide-range of data relating to the nature and circumstances of individuals who have died a drug-related death (DRD). We conducted exploratory descriptive analysis of DRDs involving NPS recorded by the NDRDD in 2012. Statistical testing of differences between sub-groups was also conducted where appropriate. RESULTS: In 2012, we found 36 DRDs in Scotland to have NPS recorded within post-mortem toxicology. However, in only 23 of these cases were NPS deemed by the reporting pathologist to be implicated in the actual cause of death. The majority of NPS-implicated DRDs involved Benzodiazepine-type drugs (13), mainly Phenazepam (12). The remaining 10 NPS-implicated deaths featured a range of different Stimulant-type drugs. The majority of these NPS-implicated deaths involved males and consumption of more than one drug was recorded by toxicology in all except one case. NPS-implicated deaths involving Benzodiazepine-type NPS drugs appeared to involve older individuals known to be using drugs for a considerable period of time, many of whom had been in prison at some point in their lives. They also typically involved combinations of opioids and benzodiazepines; no stimulant drugs were co-implicated. Deaths where stimulant-type NPS drugs were implicated appeared to be a younger group in comparison, all consuming two or more Stimulant-type drugs in combination. CONCLUSION: This exploratory study provides an important insight into the circumstances surrounding and characteristics of individuals involved in NPS deaths at a population level. It identifies important issues for policy and practice, not least the prominent role of unlicensed benzodiazepines in drug-related mortality, but also the need for a range of harm reduction strategies to prevent future deaths.

Descriptive epidemiology of cancer of unknown primary site in Scotland, 1961-2010.

BACKGROUND: Cancers of unknown primary site (CUP) pose problems for diagnosis, treatment, and accurate prediction of prognosis. However, there are limited published data describing the epidemiology of this disease entity. Our aim was to describe the epidemiology of CUP in Scotland. METHODS: Anonymised data, covering the period 1961-2010, were extracted from the Scottish Cancer Registry database, based on the following ICD-10 diagnostic codes: C26.0, C26.8, C26.9, C39, and C76-C80. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated by direct standardisation to the World Standard Population. Estimates of observed survival were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Between 1961 and 2010, there were 50,941 registrations of CUP, representing 3.9% of all registrations of invasive cancers. Age-standardised rates increased to a peak in the early to mid-1990s, followed by a steeper decrease in rates. During 2001-2010, age-standardised rates of CUP were higher in the most compared with the least deprived fifth of the population. Observed survival was marginally higher in patients diagnosed during 2001-2010 (median 5.6 weeks) compared with those diagnosed in the previous two decades. During the most recent decade, survival decreased with age at diagnosis, and was higher in patients with squamous cell carcinoma and with lymph node metastases. CONCLUSION: Patterns of CUP in Scotland are largely consistent with those reported from the few other countries that have published data. However, in comparing studies, it is important to note that there is heterogeneity in terms of definition of CUP, as well as calendar period of diagnosis or death. Variation in the definition of CUP between different epidemiological studies suggests that there would be merit in seeking international agreement on guidelines for the registration of CUP as well as a standard grouping of diagnostic codes for analysis.

A qualitative investigation of the motivations, experiences and views of female sunbed users under the age of 18 in England.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the motivations, experiences and views of female regular sunbed users aged 15-17 and consider the implications of legislation seeking to restrict sunbed use among the under-18s. Design Qualitative study of 12 focus groups. METHOD: Participants were recruited opportunistically through community and social networks, around tanning salons, leisure and educational facilities in six English towns and cities. Interviews were transcribed, a thematic framework generated and a validation exercise conducted. Setting Urban communities in England. Participants Sixty-nine female regular sunbed users aged 15-18. RESULTS: Respondents consistently valued tanning and attached considerable personal and social importance to it. They showed an awareness of the risks of sunbed use that they accepted, downplayed and/or ignored. While experiences and responses to supervision varied, respondents were resistant to any measures that restricted their use and expressed willingness to find ways around such restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: The sunbed users interviewed in this study attached considerable significance to tanning, rationalized the risks of sunbed use and expressed their determination to continue using them. The impact of legislation to limit sunbed access may be weakened without requirements to ensure supervision of salons.

Impact of the UK colorectal cancer screening pilot studies on incidence, stage distribution and mortality trends.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the UK colorectal cancer guaiac faecal occult blood test screening pilot studies on incidence trends, stage distribution and mortality trends. DESIGN: Ecological study. SETTING: Scotland and the West Midlands. DATA: We extracted anonymised colorectal cancer (ICD-10 C18-C20) registration (1982-2006) and death records (1982-2007), along with corresponding mid-year population estimates. INTERVENTION: Residents of the screening pilot areas, in the age group 50-69 years, were offered biennial guaiac faecal occult blood test screening from 2000 onwards. Screening was not offered routinely in non-pilot areas until the start of the roll-out of the national screening programmes in England and in Scotland in 2006 and 2007, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We analysed trends in age-specific incidence and mortality rates, and Dukes' stage distribution. Within each country/region, we compared the screening pilot areas to non-screening pilot ('control') areas using Chi square tests and Poisson regression modelling. RESULTS: Following the start of the screening pilots, as expected in the prevalent round of a new screening programme, in the pilot areas there was a short-lived increase in incidence of colorectal cancer among 50-69 year olds except for females in the West Midlands. A trend towards earlier stage and less advanced disease was also observed, with males showing significant increases in Dukes' A and corresponding decreases in Dukes' C in the screening pilot areas (all P < 0.03). With the exception of females in the West Midlands, mortality rates for colorectal cancer decreased significantly and at a faster rate in the populations invited for screening. CONCLUSION: The existence of a natural control population not yet invited for screening provided a unique opportunity to assess whether the benefits of colorectal cancer screening, beyond the setting of a randomised controlled trial, could be detected using routinely collected statistics. Our analysis suggests that screening will fulfil its aim of reducing mortality from colorectal cancer.

Sunbed use in children aged 11-17 in England: face to face quota sampling surveys in the National Prevalence Study and Six Cities Study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the use of sunbeds in young people across England, identify geographical variation, and explore patterns of use, including supervision. DESIGN: Two random location sampling surveys. SETTING: National Prevalence Study in England; Six Cities Study in Liverpool, Stoke/Stafford, Sunderland, Bath/Gloucester, Oxford/Cambridge, and Southampton. PARTICIPANTS: 3101 children aged 11-17 in the National Prevalence study and 6209 in the Six Cities study. RESULTS: In the National Prevalence Study 6.0% (95% confidence interval 5.1% to 6.8%) of those aged 11-17 had used a sunbed. Use was higher in girls than in boys (8.6% (7.2% to 10.0%) v 3.5% (2.6% to 4.4%), respectively), in those aged 15-17 compared with those aged 11-14 (11.2% (9.5% to 12.9%) v 1.8% (1.2% to 2.4%), respectively), and in those from lower rather than higher social grades (7.6% (5.7% to 9.5%) v 5.4% (4.5% to 6.3%), respectively). Sunbed use was higher in the "north" (11.0%, 8.9% to 13.0%) than in the "midlands" (4.2%, 2.5% to 5.8%) and the "south" (4.2%, 3.3% to 5.2%). In the Six Cities Study, sunbed use was highest in Liverpool and Sunderland (20.0% (17.5% to 22.4%) and 18.0% (15.6% to 20.3%), respectively), with rates especially high in girls, those aged 15-17, or from lower social grades. Mean age of first use was 14, and 38.4% (34.7% to 42.1%) of children used a sunbed at least once a week. Nearly a quarter (23.0%, 19.8% to 26.1%) of children had used a sunbed at home (including home of friends/relatives), and 24.7% (21.0% to 28.4%) said they had used sunbeds unsupervised in a tanning/beauty salon or gym/leisure centre. CONCLUSIONS: Sunbed use by children is widespread in England, is often inadequately supervised, and is a health risk. National legislation is needed to control sunbed outlets.

The risk of oesophageal cancer is not affected by a diagnosis of breast cancer.

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is less common and develops at a later age in women compared with men. Endogenous oestrogen may therefore protect against OAC development. A cohort of women with breast cancer, a tumour commonly treated with oestrogen antagonists, was examined to identify the subsequent risk of developing OAC. Earlier studies have implicated radiotherapy in increasing oesophageal cancer (OC) risk among women with breast cancer. West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit data recording cancer diagnosis and treatment information was examined to identify patients with a first malignant primary breast cancer during 1977-2004. Patients were followed until diagnosis of a second primary cancer, death or end of the time period examined. Age-adjusted and period-adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated as an estimate of relative risk for a second primary OC. Seventy-three thousand six hundred and thirteen women were eligible for the study, providing 486 679 person years at risk for analysis. One hundred and thirty-two second primary OCs were observed, compared with 121 expected (SIR 1.09; 95% confidence interval: 0.91-1.29). Radiotherapy treatment in 37 888 women did not affect the risk of a second primary OC (SIR 1.07; 95% confidence interval: 0.79-1.41). No difference was identified when examined by OC morphology.There was no association between breast cancer and a second primary OC. Radiotherapy that avoids deep irradiation in the treatment of breast cancer, local nodes or recurrence was not associated with an increased risk of developing a second primary OC.

Correcting population-based survival for DCOs - why a simple method works and when to avoid it.

A high proportion of cancer registrations solely based on a death certificate (DCOs) indicates poor data quality and biases cancer survival estimates. Intensive trace-back of registrations initiated after death (DCIs) can reduce the proportion of DCOs to an acceptable level and also improve data quality in other areas (such as increasing the information on disease extent, morphology and treatment) but is expensive in staff time. Our approach - based on a proportional hazards model for DCOs relative to all other cases - can be used to predict what the likely effect of the trace-back will be on survival and to justify the extra work involved. It can also be used to correct results from other sources (including historical data) especially when these sources contain high percentages of DCOs. Of course, the ability to make this correction is no excuse for omitting trace-back of DCI cases when resources permit. With our model the true survival tends ultimately to (1-p) *S where p is the proportion of DCOs and S is the observed survival, which is a simple correction noted by others. The worse the assumed survival of DCOs is relative to all other cases, the earlier is the time for the maximum difference between observed and true survival. Correction to the later part of survival curves is easy and an example is shown using EUROCARE data. This paper shows why the simple method works and suggests that researchers should always think about adjusting their survival estimates with regard to the percentage of DCOs. This paper also shows when the simple correction can (on 5-year survival estimates) and cannot (on 1-year survival estimates, generally) be used to adjust survival figures when comparisons are made across regions or countries with differing percentages of DCOs. We also present examples of some hazard ratios found in practice.

The influence of deprivation and ethnicity on the incidence of esophageal cancer in England.

The incidence of esophageal cancer (EC), particularly esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), has been rising dramatically. In the USA, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is associated with deprivation and black ethnicity, while EAC is more common among whites. The influence of social deprivation and ethnicity has not been studied in England. West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit data were used to study the incidence of ESCC and EAC, and the influence of age, sex, socioeconomic status (Townsend quintiles by postcode) and ethnicity (to individual patients from Hospital Episode Statistics). From 1977 to 2004, a total of 15,138 EC were identified. Five-year directly age standardized incidence rates per 100,000 (95% CI) for men increased from 8.6 (8.0-9.1) in 1977-1981 to 13.7 (13.1-14.3) in 2000-2004 and for women from 5.0 (4.7-5.4) to 6.3 (5.9-6.6). ESCC incidence did not alter, but EAC incidence rose rapidly in males [2.1 (1.9-2.4) to 8.5 (8.1-9.0)] and in females [0.5 (0.4-0.6) to 1.7 (1.5-1.9)]. ESCC was strongly associated with the most socially deprived quintile. EAC was not associated with differences in socioeconomic status. EAC was significantly more common in white men 7.3 (6.9-7.7) and women 1.5 (1.3-1.6) when compared with black and Asian populations. In England the incidence of EAC has rapidly risen, particularly in men over the last three decades. ESCC was strongly associated with social deprivation. EAC was more common in white populations, but no association with the socioeconomic status was found.

Patients with prostate cancer are less likely to develop oesophageal adenocarcinoma: could androgens have a role in the aetiology of oesophageal adenocarcinoma?

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is more common in men. Androgens may therefore contribute to the pathogenesis of OAC. Prostate cancer (PC), an androgen sensitive tumor with a long natural history, may allow insights into this putative association. West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit data from 1977 to 2004 were examined to identify patients with a first malignant primary of PC. Patients were followed until diagnosis of a second primary cancer, death or end of the time period. Age- and period-adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated as an estimate of the relative risk of a second malignant primary of the oesophagus. Between 1977 and 2004, 44,819 men within the West Midlands developed PC as a first primary malignancy. After exclusion for lack of follow-up, 38,627 men were eligible, providing 143,526 person years at risk for analysis. 86 second primary oesophageal cancers were observed, compared with 110 expected, resulting in an SIR of 0.78 (95% CI 0.62-0.96). There was a reduced risk of OAC 0.7 (0.5-0.95) but not of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) 1.03 (0.69-1.47). The risk of developing OAC, but not OSCC, is lower than expected in patients with PC. A diagnosis of PC may be associated with aetiological factors that are negatively associated with OAC, or anti-androgen therapy may influence the development of OAC.

Variation in incidence of breast, lung and cervical cancer and malignant melanoma of skin by socioeconomic group in England.

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence varies by socioeconomic group and these variations have been linked with environmental and lifestyle factors, differences in access to health care and health seeking behaviour. Socioeconomic variations in cancer incidence by region and age are less clearly understood but they are crucial for targeting prevention measures and health care commissioning. METHODS: Data were obtained from all eight English cancer registries for patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2003, for all invasive cases of female breast cancer (ICD-10 code C50), lung cancer (ICD-10 codes C33-C34), cervical cancer (ICD-10 code C53), and malignant melanoma of the skin (ICD-10 code C43). Socioeconomic status was assigned to each patient based on their postcode of residence at diagnosis, using the income domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004. We analysed the socioeconomic variations in the incidence of breast, lung and cervical cancer and malignant melanoma of the skin for England, and regionally and by age. RESULTS: Incidence was highest for the most deprived patients for lung cancer and cervical cancer, whilst the opposite was observed for malignant melanoma and breast cancer. The difference in incidence between the most and the least deprived groups was higher for lung cancer patients aged under 65 at diagnosis than those over 65 at diagnosis, which may indicate a cohort effect. There were regional differences in the socioeconomic gradients with the gap being widest for lung and cervical cancer in the North (North East, North West and Yorkshire and Humberside) and for malignant melanoma in the East and South West. There were only modest variations in breast cancer incidence by region. If the incidence of lung and cervical cancer were decreased to that of the least deprived group it would prevent 36% of lung cancer cases in men, 38% of lung cancer cases in women and 28% of cervical cancer cases. Incidence of breast cancer and melanoma was highest in the least deprived group, therefore if all socioeconomic groups had incidence rates similar to the least deprived group it is estimated that the number of cases would increase by 7% for breast cancer, 27% for melanoma in men and 29% for melanoma in women. CONCLUSION: National comparison of socioeconomic variations in cancer incidence by region and age can provide an unbiased basis for public health prevention and health commissioning. Decreasing inequalities in incidence requires the integration of information on risk factors, incidence and projected incidence but targeted public health interventions could help to reduce regional inequalities in incidence and reduce the future cancer burden.

Colorectal cancer survival in the Nordic countries and the United Kingdom: excess mortality risk analysis of 5 year relative period survival in the period 1999 to 2000.

A deficit in colorectal cancer survival in Denmark and in the UK compared to Sweden, Norway and Finland was found in the EUROCARE studies. We set out to explore if these differences still exist. Patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer as their first invasive cancer at age 15-89 in the period 1994-2000 were identified using data from 11 cancer registries in the UK and from four Nordic countries. Five-year relative period survival using deaths in 1999-2000 following cancers diagnosed in 1994-2000 was analysed with excess mortality risk modelling. Follow-up time since diagnosis with age as an effect-modifier in the first half year was the most important factor with the highest excess risk of death immediately after diagnosis and with higher age and decreasing with length of follow-up. Variations between countries were bigger in the first half year following diagnosis than in the interval 0.5-5 years with about 30% higher risk in UK and Denmark. The differences between countries are still substantial and the order has not changed, even if the five year relative survival has improved since the EUROCARE studies. Patient management, diagnostics, and comorbidity likely explain the excess deaths in UK and Denmark during the first 6 months. The effect of stage and quality of management and treatment should be examined in population based studies with detailed patient information. Use of more detailed age-intervals than conventionally applied in survival studies proved to be important in statistical modelling and is recommended for future studies.

Factors influencing the use of thoracic radiotherapy in lung cancer--an analysis of the 1995 Scottish lung cancer audit.

AIMS: To determine the frequency of delivery of thoracic radiotherapy (TRT) to patients with lung cancer in Scotland in 1995, and identify patient, disease and process variables affecting the probability of receiving TRT. METHODS: Retrospective case note audit of all patients with lung cancer diagnosed in Scotland in 1995. RESULTS: 1118 (30.8%) of 3,855 patients diagnosed with lung cancer in Scotland in 1995 for whom the medical records could be traced received TRT. In those who did not have small cell lung cancer, multivariate analysis indicated that diagnosis by a lung cancer specialist, clinical extent of disease and microscopic verification of cancer (all P<0.0001) and age (P=0.0005) were associated with an increased chance of receiving TRT. There was also a wide variation between different Health Boards (HB) of residence in the proportion of patients receiving TRT (P<0.0001). There was no association between the presence of local symptoms (cough, chest pain or haemoptysis) and the delivery of TRT. Of 351 patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer, 51 (14.5%) received chemotherapy and TRT, and 19 (5.4%) chemotherapy and cranial irradiation. CONCLUSIONS: TRT was delivered to fewer than one-third of patients with lung cancer in Scotland in 1995. This is lower than reported in other international audits. The chance of receiving TRT seemed to be associated with service issues rather than clinical need.