Exploring a causal model in observational cohort data: The role of parents and peers in shaping substance use trajectories.

AIMS: To explore the process of applying counterfactual thinking in examining causal determinants of substance use trajectories in observational cohort data. Specifically, we examine the extent to which quality of the parent-adolescent relationship and affiliations with deviant peers are causally related to trajectories of alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use across adolescence and into young adulthood. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Australian Temperament Project, a population-based cohort study that has followed a sample of young Australians from infancy to adulthood since 1983. Parent-adolescent relationship quality and deviant peer affiliations were assessed at age 13-14 years. Latent curve models were fitted for past month alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use (n = 1590) from age 15-16 to 27-28 years (5 waves). Confounding factors were selected in line with the counterfactual framework. RESULTS: Following confounder adjustment, higher quality parent-adolescent relationships were associated with lower baseline cannabis use, but not alcohol or tobacco use trajectories. In contrast, affiliations with deviant peers were associated with higher baseline binge drinking, tobacco, and cannabis use, and an earlier peak in the cannabis use trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Despite careful application of the counterfactual framework, interpretation of associations as causal is not without limitations. Nevertheless, findings suggested causal effects of both parent-adolescent relationships and deviant peer affiliations on the trajectory of substance use. Causal effects were more pervasive (i.e., more substance types) and protracted for deviant peer affiliations. The exploration of causal relationships in observational cohort data is encouraged, when relevant limitations are transparently acknowledged.

Childhood disadvantage and adolescent socioemotional wellbeing as predictors of future parenting behaviour.

INTRODUCTION: In extending work on early life antecedents of parenting, we investigate associations between childhood family history of disadvantage, adolescent socioemotional wellbeing, and age at first parenthood and subsequent parenting behaviour. METHODS: Parent-child interactions were recorded when participants in the longitudinal Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study (New Zealand) had a three-year-old child. Data were available for 358 mothers and 321 fathers, aged between 17.7 and 41.5 at the time of their child's birth. Associations between parenting and antecedent data on socioeconomic disadvantage, adolescent wellbeing and mental health, as well as current adult mental health and age at parenting, were tested for using structural equation modelling. RESULTS: Family disadvantage in childhood and lower adolescent wellbeing was associated with less positive future parenting, but only adult (not adolescent) anxiety/depression symptoms were directly associated with parenting behaviour. Childhood family disadvantage was associated with further disadvantage across the life course that included less positive parenting of the next generation. In contrast, socioemotional wellbeing during adolescence and later age of onset of parenting were associated with more positive parenting. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing childhood disadvantage and improving socioemotional wellbeing during childhood and adolescence is likely to have intergenerational benefits through better parenting of the next generation.

Trends in the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators in Australia: a 10-year nationwide study from 2000-2009.

BACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) have been demonstrated to reduce mortality in survivors of life-threatening arrhythmias (secondary prevention) and in patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (primary prevention). Other nations have reported significant increases in ICD use in recent years. AIM: To investigate Australian nationwide trends of ICD procedures over a 10-year period (2000-2009). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare's National Hospital Morbidity Database was performed to determine the annual number of ICD implantation and replacement procedures between 2000 and 2009. Rates were calculated using Australian Bureau of Statistics data on the annual estimated population. Time trends in the yearly procedure number and rate were analysed using negative binomial regression models with comparisons made by age and sex. RESULTS: The number of new ICD implantations increased from 708 to 3198 procedures between 2000 and 2009. Replacement procedures increased from 290 to 1378. The implantation rate (per million) increased from 37.0 to 145.6 and the replacement rate from 15.1 to 62.7. When rates were adjusted for age and sex, the implantation rate increased annually by 15.8% and the replacement rate by 16.6% (P < 0.0001). Procedures occurred most commonly in men (implantations: 80.1%; replacements: 78.0%) between ages 70-79. CONCLUSIONS: ICD procedures increased significantly in Australia between 2000-2009. Despite these increases, other studies have suggested ICD devices are currently under-utilised. During the study period, males accounted for the majority of ICD procedures. While there are numerous reasons for this, it is not known if device under-use is more common in females.

HIV and Long QT syndrome--cause or coincidence.

The Long QT syndrome is a disorder characterized by abnormalities of cardiac repolarisation, resulting in a propensity to polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (torsades de pointes) and sudden cardiac death. It remains unclear whether cardiac involvement with the HIV virus itself can cause QT prolongation. We report a case of a HIV infected young female presenting with recurrent syncope due to torsades de pointes.

Monomorphic ventricular tachycardia related to Wolff-Parkinson-White surgery.

Monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (MVT) is well described in patients who have had a ventricular scar due to repair of congenital heart disease. A 54-year-old woman presented with MVT 20 years after WPW surgery for a left-sided accessory pathway. The circuit was mapped to an area at the base of the left ventricle consistent with the incision described in the operation report. Entrainment confirmed the re-entrant circuit. Successful radiofrequency ablation was performed in a zone of slowed conduction consistent with the circuit isthmus. Any iatrogenic ventricular scar may form the substrate for MVT and be treated with standard electrophysiology techniques.