Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023: a retrospective surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: By March, 2023, 54 countries, areas, and territories (hereafter CAT) in the WHO European Region had reported more than 2·2 million COVID-19-related deaths to the WHO Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimated how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the WHO European Region from December, 2020, to March, 2023. METHODS: In this retrospective surveillance study, we estimated the number of lives directly saved by age group, vaccine dose, and circulating variant-of-concern (VOC) period, regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and infection, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, and SARS-CoV-2 virus characterisations by lineage downloaded from The European Surveillance System on June 11, 2023, as well as vaccine effectiveness data from the literature. We included data for six age groups (25-49 years, 50-59 years, ≥60 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years, and ≥80 years). To be included in the analysis, CAT needed to have reported both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality data for at least one of the four older age groups. Only CAT that reported weekly data for both COVID-19 vaccination and mortality by age group for 90% of study weeks or more in the full study period were included. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths. FINDINGS: Between December, 2020, and March, 2023, in 34 of 54 CAT included in the analysis, COVID-19 vaccines reduced deaths by 59% overall (CAT range 17-82%), representing approximately 1·6 million lives saved (range 1·5-1·7 million) in those aged 25 years or older: 96% of lives saved were aged 60 years or older and 52% were aged 80 years or older; first boosters saved 51% of lives, and 60% were saved during the Omicron period. INTERPRETATION: Over nearly 2·5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among the most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

High Rate of Hepatitis C Virus Reinfection Among Recently Injecting Drug Users: Results From the TraP Hep C Program-A Prospective Nationwide, Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The Treatment as Prevention for Hepatitis C program started in 2016 in Iceland, offering treatment with direct-acting antivirals to hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals. Reinfections through injection drug use (IDU) can hamper elimination efforts. We determined reinfection rates of HCV among patients in the program. METHODS: Clinical data were gathered prospectively. The study cohort consisted of HCV-cured patients with an estimated sustained virologic response between 1 February 2016 and 20 November 2018, with follow-up until 20 November 2019. The observation period and time until reinfection was estimated using a single random point imputation method coupled with Monte Carlo simulation. The reinfection rates were expressed as reinfections per 100 person-years (PY). RESULTS: In total, 640 treatments of 614 patients (417 male; mean age, 44.3 years) resulted in cure, with 52 reinfections subsequently confirmed in 50 patients (37 male). Follow-up was 672.1 PY, with a median time to reinfection of 232 days. History of IDU was reported by 523 patients (84.8%) and recent IDU with 220 treatments (34.4%). Stimulants were the preferred injected drug in 85.5% of patients with a history of IDU. The reinfection rate was 7.7/100 PY. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models for interval-censored data, age (hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% confidence interval, .94-.99]) and recent IDU (2.91 [1.48-5.76]) were significantly associated with reinfection risk. CONCLUSIONS: The reinfection rate is high in a setting of widespread stimulant use, particularly in young people with recent IDU. Regular follow-up is important among high-risk populations to diagnose reinfections early and reduce transmission. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02647879.

Reconstruction of a large-scale outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Iceland informs vaccination strategies.

OBJECTIVES: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioural. The effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions can be attributed largely to changes in human behaviour, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to directly compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons. METHODS: The transmission tree enables us to model the effect that a given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had one of three different vaccination strategies been implemented before that time. This allows us to compare the effectiveness of the strategies in terms of minimizing the number of cases, deaths, critical cases, and severe cases. RESULTS: We found that people diagnosed outside of quarantine (Rˆ=1.31) were 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine (Rˆ=0.70) and that infectiousness decreased as a function of time spent in quarantine before diagnosis, with people diagnosed outside of quarantine being 144% more infectious than those diagnosed after ≥3 days in quarantine (Rˆ=0.54). People of working age, 16 to 66 years (Rˆ=1.08), were 46% more infectious than those outside of that age range (Rˆ=0.74). DISCUSSION: We found that vaccinating the population in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age, without significantly affecting the expected number of deaths, critical cases, or severe cases.

Dietary patterns in adolescence and risk of colorectal cancer: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: To study whether dietary patterns in adolescence are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Food frequency data were obtained from the AGES-Reykjavik study, conducted between 2002 and 2006, which included 5,078 (58% women) participants with mean age of 77 (± 5.8) years. Principal component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns. Participants were followed through linkage to the Icelandic Cancer Registry. Multivariable Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) of CRC and 95% confidence interval (CI) by dietary patterns. RESULTS: During the follow-up period (mean 8.2 years), 136 participants (75 women and 61 men) were diagnosed with CRC. The main dietary pattern in adolescence was characterized by high intake of traditional food items consumed in the earlier half of the twentieth century, namely, salted or smoked meat and fish, milk, offal, rye bread, and oatmeal. Compared to the lowest tertile, the middle tertile of this pattern was associated with increased risk of CRC (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.04-2.57), while the highest tertile was not statistically associated with CRC (HR 1.48, 95% CI 0.93-2.37), except among women (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.11-3.84). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that strong adherence to a traditional Icelandic diet in adolescence might increase the risk of CRC, particularly among women. More research is need on the association between food items and dietary patterns of relevance to CRC at different points in the life cycle.

Molecular benchmarks of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.

A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures.

Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed. RESULTS: Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

Dietary intake is associated with risk of multiple myeloma and its precursor disease.

The etiology of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor state of multiple myeloma (MM), is mostly unknown and no studies have been conducted on the effect of diet on MGUS or progression from MGUS to MM. We aimed to explore the association between common foods and MGUS and progression to MM. Data from the population-based AGES Study (N = 5,764) were utilized. Food frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intake during adolescence, midlife, and late life. Serum protein electrophoresis and serum free light-chain assay was performed to identify MGUS (n = 300) and LC-MGUS cases (n = 275). We cross linked our data with the Icelandic Cancer Registry to find cases of MM in the study group. We found that intake of fruit at least three times per week during adolescence was associated with lower risk of MGUS when compared to lower fruit consumption (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.95). We additionally found that intake of fruit at least three times per week during the late life period was associated with decreased risk of progressing from MGUS to MM (HR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.13-0.89) when compared to lower intake. Adolescent intake of fruit may reduce risk of MGUS, whereas fruit intake after MGUS onset may reduce risk of progressing to MM. Our findings suggest that diet might alter the risk of developing MGUS and progression to MM.

Correction: Dietary habits in adolescence and midlife and risk of breast cancer in older women.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0198017.].

[Views of Icelandic women towards genetic counseling - and testing of BRCA2 mutations].

Introduction The aim of this study was to explore the attitudes of Icelandic women towards existing genetic information, genetic counseling and genetic testing for BRCA mutations which dramatically increase risk for aggressive cancers. Materials and methods Women attending the cancer prevention clinic in Reykjavik, capital of Iceland, from October 12th until November 20th 2015 received an invitation to participate. Participation involved answering a short online questionnaire about background, family history of cancer as well as attitudes towards genetic counseling, BRCA testing and preventive use of such information. Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests were used to describe differences in attitudes towards those questions between subgroups of women. Results 1129 women (69% response rate) answered the questionnaire. Mean age was 47 years (span 21-76 years). Around half (47%) had heard fairly much about the mutations. Independent of family history of cancer, the majority of women were positive towards receiving genetic counseling (79%) and to undergo genetic testing (83%) for BRCA mutation with younger women being more interested than older women. On the other hand, only 4% of the women had already received genetic counseling and 7% undergone genetic testing. Women with family history of cancer were more knowledgeable about BRCA mutations (p<0.0001) and were less afraid of the consequence of being a mutation carrier (p<0.0001) compared to those with little or no family history. Regardless of family history, half (49%) worried that results from genetic testing could influence their health insurance. Almost all, or 97% of the women, were positive or very positive toward using existing genetic information obtained through scientific work, to inform affected indi-viduals of their mutation status. Conclusion Icelandic women are positive towards genetic counseling and testing for BRCA mutations although half of them worry that a positive result might affect their health insurance. Nevertheless, almost all women believe that existing genetic information should be used to inform carriers for preventive purposes.

Dietary habits in adolescence and midlife and risk of breast cancer in older women.

Recent studies indicate that lifestyle factors in early life affect breast cancer risk. We therefore explored the association of high consumption of meat, milk, and whole grain products in adolescence and midlife, on breast cancer risk. We used data from the population based AGES-Reykjavik cohort (2002-2006), where 3,326 women with a mean age of 77 years (SD 6.0) participated. For food items and principal component derived dietary patterns we used Cox proportional models to calculate multivariate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). During a mean follow-up of 8.8 years, 97 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. For both adolescence and midlife, daily consumption of rye bread was positively associated with breast cancer (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.6 and HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.9, respectively). In contrast, persistent high consumption of oatmeal was negatively associated with breast cancer (0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.9). No association was found for other food items or dietary patterns that included rye bread. High rye bread consumption in adolescence and midlife may increase risk of late-life breast cancer whilst persistent consumption of oatmeal may reduce the risk.

Obesity and risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and progression to multiple myeloma: a population-based study.

All multiple myeloma (MM) cases are preceded by the premalignant state monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Results from previous studies show a positive association between obesity and MM; however, the association between obesity and MGUS is controversial. The aims were to determine (1) if obesity is associated with an increased risk of MGUS and light-chain MGUS (LC-MGUS) and (2) whether obesity is associated with a higher risk of progression to MM and other lymphoproliferative (LP) diseases. Data from the population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (N = 5764) were used. We performed serum protein electrophoresis and serum free light-chain assay on all subjects to identify MGUS and LC-MGUS cases. We included 11 different measures on current and previous obesity in our analysis. Logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazard regression were used to analyze the associations. A total of 300 (5.2%) MGUS and 275 (4.8%) LC-MGUS cases were identified. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 18 had progressed to MM and 11 to other LP diseases. We found no association between the 11 obesity markers and MGUS or LC-MGUS (odds ratios 0.81 to 1.15 for all 11 variables in both conditions). Interestingly, we found that high midlife body mass index increased risk of progression to MM and other LP diseases (hazard ratio, 2.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-6.05). To conclude, obesity was not associated with MGUS. However, we found overweight/obesity to be a risk factor for progression from MGUS to MM and other LP diseases, suggesting that obesity plays a role in the transformation of MGUS to MM.

Bone disease in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: results from a screened population-based study.

Previous studies have shown that individuals with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) have an increased risk of fractures, although the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Our aim was to analyze bone mineral density (BMD), bone volume, and risk of fractures among individuals with MGUS. We performed a screening using the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study cohort, consisting of 5764 elderly individuals, identifying 300 individuals with MGUS, and 275 with light-chain MGUS. Quantitative computerized tomography was performed in the lumbar spine and hip to evaluate BMD and bone geometry. Analysis of variance and the Tukey honest significance test were used to compare the groups. Hospital records were used to record fractures, with a mean follow-up of 6.9 years. Cox proportional hazard was used to compare fracture risk. No difference was found in BMD between subjects with MGUS and others in the spine (P = .34) or in total hip (P = .30). Individuals with MGUS had a significant increase in bone volume compared with others in the spine (P < .001) and total hip (P < .001). Overall, the risk of fractures was not significantly increased in individuals with MGUS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-1.50). Men with MGUS had a significantly increased fracture risk, compared with other men (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.03-2.08). Our results show that although individuals with MGUS do not have decreased BMD, bone volume is increased, and MGUS men have a 50% increased fracture risk. These results indicate that bone disease and fractures in MGUS differ from processes known from osteoporosis.