PNPLA3, obesity and heavy alcohol use in cirrhosis patients may exert a synergistic increase hepatocellular carcinoma risk.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with cirrhosis, continued heavy alcohol consumption and obesity may increase risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined whether germline susceptibility to hepatic steatosis not only independently predisposes to HCC but may also act synergistically with other risk factors. METHODS: We analyzed data from 1911 patients in two multicenter prospective cohort studies in the U.S. We classified patients according to alcohol consumption (current heavy vs. not current heavy), obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 vs. <30), and PNPLA3 I148M variant status (carrier of at least one G risk allele vs. noncarrier). We examined the independent and joint effects of these risk factors on risk of developing HCC using Cox regression with competing risks. RESULTS: Mean age was 59.6y, 64.3% male, 28.7% Hispanic, 18.3% non-Hispanic Black, 50.9% were obese, 6.2% had current heavy alcohol consumption, and 58.4% harbored at least one PNPLA3 G-allele. 116 patients developed HCC. Compared to PNPLA3 noncarriers without heavy alcohol consumption, HCC risk was 2.65-fold higher (hazard ratio [HR], 2.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-5.86) for carriers who had current heavy alcohol consumption. Compared to noncarrier patients without obesity, HCC risk was higher (HR, 2.40; 95%CI, 1.33-4.31) for carrier patients who were obese. PNPLA3 and alcohol consumption effect was stronger among patients with viral etiology of cirrhosis (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.31-8.90). PNPLA3 improved 1-year risk prediction for HCC when added to a clinical risk model. CONCLUSIONS: The PNPLA3 variant may help refine risk stratification for HCC in patients with cirrhosis with heavy alcohol consumption or obesity who may need specific preventive measures.

Helicobacter pylori infection does not influence the progression from gastroesophageal reflux disease to Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted a meta-analysis evaluating the overall risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in individuals with Helicobacter pylori infection, and a network meta-analysis to assess the role of H. pylori infection in the progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to EAC. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases were searched between 1988 and June 2023 for observational studies of H. pylori infection and the risk of EAC. Summary odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using the DerSimonian-Laird method. I2 statistics were calculated to examine heterogeneity. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analysis and 3 additional studies were included in the network meta-analysis. For comparisons with controls, individuals with H. pylori infection were 46% less likely to develop EAC than individuals without H. pylori infection (OR, 0.54; 95% CI: 0.46, 0.64), with low heterogeneity between studies (I2=4.4%). The magnitude of the inverse association was stronger in the two large cohort studies (OR=0.31) than in the 11 case-control studies (OR=0.55). When comparing to controls, the network meta-analysis of 6 studies showed that H. pylori infection was associated with a lower risk of GERD (OR=0.68) or BE (OR=0.59) or EAC (OR=0.54); however, H. pylori infection was not associated with risk of EAC in patients with BE (OR=0.91; 95% CI: 0.68, 1.21). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis provides the strongest evidence yet that H. pylori infection is inversely associated with EAC. H. pylori does not appear to be associated with BE progression to EAC.

An Electronic Health Record Model for Predicting Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis in Primary Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: One challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease. AIM: To derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes. METHODS: We used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides. RESULTS: Of 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.

Somatic mutations of esophageal adenocarcinoma: a comparison between Black and White patients.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is the most common histological subtype of esophageal cancer in Western countries and shows poor prognosis with rapid growth. EAC is characterized by a strong male predominance and racial disparity. EAC is up to fivefold more common among Whites than Blacks, yet Black patients with EAC have poorer survival rates. The racial disparity remains largely unknown, and there is limited knowledge of mutations in EAC regarding racial disparities. We used whole-exome sequencing to show somatic mutation profiles derived from tumor samples from 18 EAC male patients. We identified three molecular subgroups based on the pre-defined esophageal cancer-specific mutational signatures. Group 1 is associated with age and NTHL1 deficiency-related signatures. Group 2 occurs primarily in Black patients and is associated with signatures related to DNA damage from oxidative stress and NTHL1 deficiency-related signatures. Group 3 is associated with defective homologous recombination-based DNA often caused by BRCA mutation in White patients. We observed significantly mutated race related genes (LCE2B in Black, SDR39U1 in White) were (q-value < 0.1). Our findings underscore the possibility of distinct molecular mutation patterns in EAC among different races. Further studies are needed to validate our findings, which could contribute to precision medicine in EAC.

Serum biomarker signature is predictive of the risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers have been associated with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) risk in phases I and II biomarker studies. We developed and internally validated a robust metabolic biomarker panel predictive of HCC in a longitudinal phase III study. METHODS: We used data and banked serum from a prospective cohort of 2266 adult patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC (n=126). We custom designed a FirePlex immunoassay to measure baseline serum levels of 39 biomarkers and established a set of biomarkers with the highest discriminatory ability for HCC. We performed bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance using C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We quantified the incremental predictive value of the biomarker panel when added to previously validated clinical models. RESULTS: We identified a nine-biomarker panel (P9) with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.67), including insulin growth factor-1, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor ß1, adipsin, fetuin-A, interleukin-1 ß, macrophage stimulating protein α chain, serum amyloid A and TNF-α. Adding P9 to our clinical model with 10 factors including AFP improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 4.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Adding P9 to aMAP score improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 14.2% and 7.6%, respectively. Adding AFP L-3 or DCP did not change the predictive ability of the P9 model. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a panel of nine serum biomarkers that is independently associated with developing HCC in cirrhosis and that improved the predictive ability of risk stratification models containing clinical factors.

Hepatocellular and extrahepatic cancer risk in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. Much of the recognised health-care burden occurs in the minority of people with NAFLD who progress towards cirrhosis and require specialist follow-up, including risk stratification and hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. NAFLD is projected to become the leading global cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, but the frequency of non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma provides a challenge to existing surveillance strategies. Deaths from extrahepatic cancers far exceed those from hepatocellular carcinoma in NAFLD. Unlike hepatocellular carcinoma, the increased extrahepatic cancer risk in NAFLD is not dependent on liver fibrosis stage. Given that almost 30% of the world's adult population has NAFLD, extrahepatic cancer could represent a substantial health and economic issue. In this Review, we discuss current knowledge and controversies regarding hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance practices in people with NAFLD. We also assess the associations of extrahepatic cancers with NAFLD and their relevance both in the clinic and the wider community.

Recent Trends in the Incidence of Gastric Cancer in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer (GC) incidence rates overall in the United States have declined over recent decades and are predicted to continue declining. However, there have been mixed recent findings regarding the potential stabilization of rates and potential divergent trends by age group. We used the most recent cancer data for the United States and examined trends in GC between 1992 and 2019, overall and in important subgroups of the population. METHODS: Age-adjusted GC incidence rates and trends in adults 20 years or older were calculated using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 12 program. Secular trends were examined overall and by age group, sex, race/ethnicity, SEER registry, and tumor location. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent changes, average annual percent changes, and associated 95% CI. RESULTS: GC rates decreased by 1.23% annually from 1992 to 2019. Despite overall decreases, GC incidence rates increased for age groups below 50 years, predominately driven by noncardia GC (74.3% of all GCs). Cardia GC (26.7% of GC) rates decreased in all age groups except for 80 to 84 years. Overall GC rates decreased for both sexes, all races, and for all SEER registry regions, with the largest decreases occurring in males, Asians and Pacific Islanders, and in Hawaii. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed that birth cohorts before 1940 and after 1980 both had increased rates of GC compared with the reference birth cohort of 1955. CONCLUSION: GC rates overall have continued to decline through 2019, despite increases in the rate of noncardia GC for younger age groups.

Geographic Variation in Late-Stage Cervical Cancer Diagnosis.

Importance: There are stark disparities in cervical cancer burden in the United States, notably by race and ethnicity and geography. Late-stage diagnosis is an indicator of inadequate access to and utilization of screening. Objective: To identify geospatial clusters of late-stage cervical cancer at time of diagnosis in Texas. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study used incident cervical cancer data from the Texas Cancer Registry from 2014 to 2018 of female patients aged 18 years or older. Late-stage cervical cancer cases were geocoded at the census tract level (n = 5265) using their residential coordinates (latitude and longitude) at the time of diagnosis. Statistical analysis was performed from April to September 2023. Exposures: Census tract of residence at diagnosis. Main Outcome and Measures: Late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis (ie, cases classified by the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results summary stages 2 to 4 [regional spread] or 7 [distant metastasis]). A Poisson probability-based model of the SaTScan purely spatial scan statistics was applied at the census tract-level to identify geographic clusters of higher (hot spots) or lower (cold spots) proportions than expected of late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis and adjusted for age. Results: Among a total of 6484 female patients with incident cervical cancer cases (mean [SD] age, 48.7 [14.7] years), 2300 (35.5%) were Hispanic, 798 (12.3%) were non-Hispanic Black, 3090 (47.6%) were non-Hispanic White, and 296 (4.6%) were other race or ethnicity. Of the 6484 patients, 2892 with late-stage diagnosis (mean [SD] age, 51.8 [14.4] years were analyzed. Among patients with late-stage diagnosis, 1069 (37.0%) were Hispanic, 417 (14.4%) were non-Hispanic Black, 1307 (45.2%) were non-Hispanic White, and 99 (3.4%) were other race or ethnicity. SaTScan spatial analysis identified 7 statistically significant clusters of late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis in Texas, of which 4 were hot spots and 3 were cold spots. Hot spots included 1128 census tracts, predominantly in the South Texas Plains, Gulf Coast, and Prairies and Lakes (North Texas) regions. Of the 2892 patients with late-stage cervical cancer, 880 (30.4%) were observed within hot spots. Census tract-level comparison of characteristics of clusters suggested that hot spots differed significantly from cold spots and the rest of Texas by proportions of racial and ethnic groups, non-US born persons, and socioeconomic status. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study examining geospatial clusters of late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis, place-based disparities were found in late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis in Texas. These findings suggest that these communities may benefit from aggressive cervical cancer interventions.

Trends and Variations in Pancreatic Cancer Mortality Among US Metro and Nonmetro Adults, 1999-2020.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States. Despite decreasing cancer mortality rates as a whole, pancreatic cancer death rates in the United States remain steady and demonstrate racial/ethnic disparities. Divergent cancer mortality trends have also been observed between metro and nonmetro populations. We therefore aimed to compare metro and nonmetro trends in pancreatic cancer mortality rates in the United States from 1999 to 2020 and investigate potential sex and racial/ethnic differences. METHODS: We analyzed National Center for Health Statistics data for all pancreatic cancer deaths among individuals aged 25 years or older in the United States. We estimated the average annual percent change (AAPC) in age-standardized pancreatic cancer mortality rates in metro versus nonmetro areas by sex and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Of the total 810,425 pancreatic cancer-related deaths identified from 1999 to 2020, 668,547 occurred in metro areas and 141,878 in nonmetro areas. Non-Hispanic Black individuals had the highest rates of pancreatic cancer mortality regardless of metropolitan status. In both metro and nonmetro areas, pancreatic cancer mortality rates among non-Hispanic White individuals increased over the study period (AAPC: metro, males, 0.32%; females, 0.27%; nonmetro, males, 0.77%; females, 0.62%). Non-Hispanic Black individuals in metro areas had a decrease in pancreatic cancer mortality (AAPC: males, -0.25%; females, -0.29%), but rates among non-Hispanic Black women in nonmetro areas increased (AAPC, 0.49%). CONCLUSIONS: There are variations not only in pancreatic cancer mortality by metro and nonmetro status but also by sex and race/ethnicity within these areas. Individuals who live in nonmetro areas have higher pancreatic cancer mortality rates and increasing death rates compared with their metro counterparts. These findings highlight the need for targeted cancer prevention strategies that are specific to metro or nonmetro populations.

Trends in Up-To-Date Colorectal Cancer Screening Among U.S. Adults Aged 50-75 Years and Variations by Race/Ethnicity and U.S. Census Bureau Divisions.

Introduction: Mortality rates from colorectal cancer have declined over the past decades owing to population-based life-saving screening interventions. However, screening inequalities continue among racial and ethnic minorities despite having a higher disease burden. In this study, we assessed the patterns of up-to-date colorectal cancer screening rates among racial/ethnic groups across the U.S. Census Bureau Divisions. Methods: This population-based cross-sectional study used weighted data from 4 cycles of the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System (2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020) of adults aged 50‒75 years without a previous diagnosis of colorectal cancer. The primary outcome was guideline-recommended up-to-date colorectal cancer screening. We used logistic regression models to examine temporal trends in up-to-date colorectal cancer screening from 2014 to 2020. In addition, we conducted detailed descriptive statistics of up-to-date screening rates, comparing trends in 2020 with those in 2014 overall by race/ethnicity and U.S. census divisions. Results: The overall proportion of individuals with up-to-date colorectal cancer screening increased from 66.5% in 2014 to 72.5% in 2020 (p<0.001). For racial/ethnic subgroups, from 2014 to 2020, screening rates increased significantly among non-Hispanic Whites (68.5%‒74.5%, p<0.001), non-Hispanic Blacks (68.0%‒74.6%, p<0.001), and Hispanics (51.5%‒62.8%, p<0.001). However, increases were not observed in all U.S. Census Bureau Divisions. Conclusions: Although colorectal cancer screening rates improved over time, they fall short of the 80% target. Substantial racial/ethnic and geographic disparities remain. Future studies investigating the factors influencing these disparities are needed.

A Study of Dietary Patterns Derived by Cluster Analysis and Their Association With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Severity Among Hispanic Patients.

INTRODUCTION: Diet is a modifiable metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) risk factor, but few studies have been conducted among Hispanic patients, despite the fact that MASLD prevalence and severity are highest among this ethnic subgroup. We aimed to identify prevalent dietary patterns among Hispanic patients using cluster analysis and to investigate associations with MASLD severity. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis included 421 Harris County MASLD Cohort participants who self-reported Hispanic ethnicity and completed baseline food frequency questionnaires. All included patients had MASLD, diagnosed per standard clinical criteria. K-means analysis was used to identify clusters of patients sharing similar dietary habits. Multivariable adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate associations of dietary clusters with aminotransferases among the overall sample and with histologic steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, and fibrosis among a subsample of patients who underwent liver biopsy within 6 months of their baseline food frequency questionnaire (n = 186). RESULTS: We identified 2 clusters: a plant-food/prudent and a fast-food/meat pattern. The fast-food/meat pattern was associated with 2.47-fold increased odds (95% confidence interval 1.31-4.65) of more severe steatosis than the plant-food/prudent pattern after adjusting for demographics, metabolic score, physical activity, and alcohol ( q = 0.0159). No significant association was observed between diet and aminotransferases, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or fibrosis. DISCUSSION: Given the importance of sociocultural influences on diet, it is important to understand dietary patterns prevalent among Hispanic patients with MASLD. Using cluster analysis, we identified 1 plant-based pattern vs 1 distinct fast-food/meat-based pattern associated with detrimental effects among our population. This information is an important starting point for tailoring dietary interventions for Hispanic patients with MASLD.

Bioimpedance analysis predicts the etiology of cirrhosis in a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing cirrhosis. However, body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) may not be indicative of body composition parameters that predispose to cirrhosis. Bioimpedance analysis (BIA) is a noninvasive cost-efficient method for more detailed estimation of body composition. METHODS: We examined patients with cirrhosis who underwent BIA as part of enrollment into a prospective cohort study. We examined the correlation between BIA variables, BMI, and WHR. We performed sex-adjusted and race-adjusted and race-specific multivariable logistic regression analyses to examine the association between anthropometric variables and risk factors [NAFLD, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and HCV]. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 348 cirrhosis patients; 23.3% were women; 48.3% were non-Hispanic White; 19.3% were Hispanic; and 30.7% were African American. The cirrhosis etiology was 21.8% NAFLD, 56.9% HCV mostly cured, and 11.5% ALD. Several BIA variables correlated well with BMI, and others showed modest correlations, but none correlated well with WHR. Higher body fat mass and basal metabolic rate were positively associated, while higher lean body mass, dry lean mass, total body water, or skeletal muscle mass were negatively associated with NAFLD. Associations between these BIA parameters and ALD-related cirrhosis were in the opposite direction. These associations of BIA variables were seen only in Hispanic and non-Hispanic White patients but not non-Hispanic Blacks. BIA variables were more predictive of cirrhosis etiology than BMI or WHR. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with cirrhosis, several BIA-derived measurements indicative of body fat and muscle are associated with NAFLD and ALD etiology. BIA variables show stronger associations, as well as race/ethnicity-specific associations, with cirrhosis etiology than those of BMI or WHR.

Disparities in cancer mortality patterns: A comprehensive examination of U.S. rural and urban adults, 1999-2020.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality rates overall in the U.S. have decreased significantly; however, the rate of decline has not been uniform across sociodemographic groups. We aimed to compare trends in cancer mortality rates from 1999 to 2020 between rural and urban individuals and to examine whether any rural-urban differences are uniform across racial and ethnic groups. METHODS: We used U.S.-wide data from the National Center for Health Statistics, for all cancer deaths among individuals aged 25 years or older. We estimated average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized cancer mortality rates in the U.S. by cancer type, rural-urban status, sex, and race and ethnicity. RESULTS: There was a larger reduction in cancer mortality rates among individuals from urban (males: AAPC, -1.96%; 95% CI, -2.03, -1.90; females: AAPC, -1.56%; 95% CI, -1.64, -1.48) than rural (males: AAPC, -1.43%; 95% CI, -1.47, -1.39; females: AAPC, -0.93; 95% CI, -1.03, -0.82) areas. AAPCs for cancer types were uniformly higher among urban areas compared with rural areas. Despite overall decreases, deaths rates for liver and pancreas cancers increased, including in the most recent period among males (2012-2020, APC, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.49, 2.20) and females (2013-2020, APC, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.03, 3.02) in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer death rates decreased in all racial and ethnic populations; however, the rural-urban differences varied by race/ethnicity. The rate of decline in mortality rates were lower in rural areas and death rates for liver and pancreas cancers increased, particularly for individuals living in rural America.

New Model to Predict Recurrence After Endoscopic Mucosal Resection of Non-pedunculated Colonic Polyps ≥ 20 mm.

BACKGROUND: Polyp recurrence is common after endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) of non-pedunculated colonic polyps ≥ 20 mm. Two models haven been published for polyp recurrence prediction: Sydney EMR recurrence tool (SERT) and the size, morphology, colonic site, and access to target (SMSA) score. None of these models have been evaluated in a real-world United States (U.S.) cohort. We aimed to evaluate the external validity of these two models and develop a new model. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients with non-pedunculated polyps ≥ 20 mm that underwent EMR between 1/1/2012 and 6/30/2020. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictors of polyp recurrence to build a new model. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves for the new model, SERT and a modified version of SMSA were derived and compared. RESULTS: A total of 461 polyps from 461 unique patients were included for analysis. The average polyp size was 29.1 ± 12.4 mm. Recurrence rate at first or second surveillance colonoscopy was 29.0% at a 15.6 months median follow up (IQR 12.3-17.4). A model was created with 4 variables from index colonoscopy: size > 40 mm, tubulovillous adenoma histology, right colon location and piecemeal resection. ROC curves showed that the Area Under the ROC (AUC) for the new model was 0.618, for SERT 0.538 and for mSMSA 0.550. CONCLUSION: SERT score and mSMSA have poor external validity to predict polyp recurrence after EMR of non-pedunculated polyps > 20 mm. Our new model is simpler and performs better in this multiethnic, non-referral cohort from the U.S.

Gastric Cancer Risk in Patients with Long-Term Use of Proton Pump Inhibitors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational and Interventional Studies.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies that differ in design, quality, and results report an association between the use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and the risk of gastric cancer (GC). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, when possible, of observational and interventional studies examining PPI use and risk of GC. METHODS: We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We identified studies fully published in English through January 2023 using MeSH and non-MeSH keywords. We used random effects models to calculate pooled risk estimates with 95% confidence interval (CI) between PPI use and overall GC, cardia GC, and non-cardia GC. We estimated heterogeneity (I2) among studies. We examined the effect of study design and quality, GC site, H. pylori infection, and PPI duration. We assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale and Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions. RESULTS: We identified 15 observational studies, of which 13 were included in the meta-analysis (six cohort and seven case-control). There was a modest 1.67-fold increase in overall GC risk (95% CI 1.39, 2.00) and no increase in cardia GC risk [odds ratio (OR) 1.12; 95% CI 0.80, 1.56] with PPI use. However, there was high heterogeneity (I2 = 61.3%, p = 0.004) among studies. All but one study had at least moderate risk of bias. In the six studies accounting for H. pylori, GC risk associated with PPI use increased slightly (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.25, 2.52). Duration response was not reported consistently to allow pooled estimates. We identified only one interventional randomized controlled study that included GC as an outcome of interest, and it did not show increased GC risk. CONCLUSIONS: The overall available evidence is not supportive of a meaningful change in GC risk, either cardia or non-cardia, with PPI use.

Burden of high-risk phenotype of heavy alcohol consumption among obese U.S. population: results from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2020.

Background: The phenotype of combined heavy alcohol consumption and obesity has the potential to pose as a considerable health burden in the U.S. No studies using nationally representative data in the U.S. have reported their secular joint prevalence trends. We estimated the prevalence and examined the joint trends of heavy alcohol use and obesity over time among adult U.S. men and women in different age groups and according to race/ethnicity. Methods: Using data from 10 cycles of the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2020, we examined secular trends in the combined phenotype of heavy drinking and obesity overall and by age-group, sex, and race/ethnicity. The main outcome measures were prevalence of heavy alcohol consumption (>14 drinks/week in men and >7 drinks/week in women) and obesity (BMI ≥30). Findings: In 45,292 adults (22,684 men, mean age 49.26 years; and 22,608 women, mean age 49.86), the overall weighted prevalence of combined heavy alcohol drinking and obesity increased from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.2%, 3.1%) in 1999-2000 to 3.1% (95% CI: 2.7%, 3.7%) in 2017-2020 representing an increase of 72% over time. In the joinpoint regression, the combined phenotype of heavy alcohol consumption and obesity increased by 3.25% (95% CI: 1.67%, 4.85%) per year overall from 1999 to 2017. An increasing trend of 9.94% (95% CI: 2.37%, 18.06%) per year was observed among adults aged between 40 and 59 years from 2007 onwards. Prevalence of heavy alcohol consumption in obesity increased at a faster rate among women (APC, 3.96%; 95% CI: 2.14%, 5.82%) than men (APC, 2.47%; 95% CI: 0.63%, 4.35%), and increased among non-Hispanic Whites (APC, 4.12%; 95% CI: 1.50%, 6.82%) and non-Hispanic Blacks (APC, 2.78%; 95% CI: 0.47%, 5.14%), but not Hispanics. Interpretation: The prevalence of combined heavy alcohol consumption and obesity increased overall in the U.S., but the rate of increase differed by age, sex, and race/ethnic groups. Given their independent and potential synergistic effects on premature mortality, public health policies on alcohol consumption need to reflect the background obesity epidemic. Funding: Cancer Prevention & Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) for the Systems Epidemiology of Cancer Training (SECT) Program (RP210037; PI: A. Thrift).

Association of Diet Quality with Metabolic (Dysfunction) Associated Fatty Liver Disease in Veterans in Primary Care.

BACKGROUND: Diet is associated with metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), but the dietary composition associated with MAFLD risk has not been well-examined. AIM: The purpose of this study was to assess the association of two healthy eating indices with the presence and severity of MAFLD in a sample of Veterans in a primary care setting. METHODS: This was a single center cross-sectional study using a random stratified sample of Veterans enrolled in primary care. Participants underwent a Fibroscan and completed an interviewer-administered Diet History Questionnaire II from which we calculated the Healthy Eating Index-2015 and Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations of dietary quality with MAFLD. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 187 participants, 53.5% of whom were female. On average, participants were 50.2 years of age (SD, 12.3 years) with an average BMI of 31.7 kg/m2. MAFLD was detected in 78 (42%) and at least moderate fibrosis in 12 (6%) participants. We found that the Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score was inversely associated with MAFLD (adjusted OR = 0.85, 95%CI 0.72-1.00), but controlling for BMI and total energy intake attenuated the association (adjusted OR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.74-1.15). We found no statistically significant associations between the Healthy Eating Index-2015 and MAFLD or advanced fibrosis. DISCUSSION: We found that the Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score was significantly associated with lower MAFLD risk in Veterans; however, the association was mediated by BMI and total energy intake. A Mediterranean-style diet could potentially help reduce the risk of MAFLD, particularly if it helps control total energy intake and weight.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021. RESULTS: We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration. CONCLUSION: The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Validation of a pre-endoscopy risk score for predicting the presence of gastric intestinal metaplasia in a U.S. population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Surveillance of gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) may lead to early gastric cancer detection. Our purpose was to externally validate a predictive model for endoscopic GIM previously developed in a veteran population in a second U.S. METHODS: We previously developed a pre-endoscopy risk model for detection of GIM using 423 GIM cases and 1796 control subjects from the Houston Veterans Affairs Hospital. The model included sex, age, race/ethnicity, smoking, and Helicobacter pylori infection with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of .73 for GIM and .82 for extensive GIM. We validated this model in a second cohort of patients from 6 Catholic Health Initiative (CHI)-St Luke's hospitals (Houston, Tex, USA) from January to December 2017. Cases were defined as having GIM on any gastric biopsy sample and extensive GIM as involving both the antrum and corpus. We further optimized the model by pooling both cohorts and assessing discrimination using AUROC. RESULTS: The risk model was validated in 215 GIM cases (55 with extensive GIM) and 2469 control subjects. Cases were older than control subjects (59.8 vs 54.7 years) with more nonwhites (59.1% vs 42.0%) and H pylori infections (23.7% vs 10.9%). The model applied to the CHI-St Luke's cohort had an AUROC of .62 (95% confidence interval [CI], .57-.66) for predicting GIM and of .71 (95% CI, .63-.79) for predicting extensive GIM. When the Veterans Affairs and CHI-St Luke's cohorts were pooled, discrimination of both models improved (GIM vs extensive GIM AUROC: .74 vs .82). CONCLUSIONS: A pre-endoscopy risk prediction model was validated and updated using a second U.S. cohort with robust discrimination for endoscopic GIM. This model should be evaluated in other U.S. populations to risk-stratify patients for endoscopic GIM screening.