Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission. Results: We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination. Funding: JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).

Xpert Ultra stool testing to diagnose tuberculosis in children in Ethiopia and Indonesia: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The WHO currently recommends stool testing using GeneXpert MTB/Rif (Xpert) for the diagnosis of paediatric tuberculosis (TB). The simple one-step (SOS) stool method enables processing for Xpert testing at the primary healthcare (PHC) level. We modelled the impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing the SOS stool method at PHC for the diagnosis of paediatric TB in Ethiopia and Indonesia, compared with the standard of care. SETTING: All children (age <15 years) presenting with presumptive TB at primary healthcare or hospital level in Ethiopia and Indonesia. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Cost-effectiveness estimated as incremental costs compared with incremental disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) saved. METHODS: Decision tree modelling was used to represent pathways of patient care and referral. We based model parameters on ongoing studies and surveillance, systematic literature review, and expert opinion. We estimated costs using data available publicly and obtained through in-country expert consultations. Health outcomes were based on modelled mortality and discounted life-years lost. RESULTS: The intervention increased the sensitivity of TB diagnosis by 19-25% in both countries leading to a 14-20% relative reduction in mortality. Under the intervention, fewer children seeking care at PHC were referred (or self-referred) to higher levels of care; the number of children initiating anti-TB treatment (ATT) increased by 18-25%; and more children (85%) initiated ATT at PHC level. Costs increased under the intervention compared with a base case using smear microscopy in the standard of care resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of US$132 and US$94 per DALY averted in Ethiopia and Indonesia, respectively. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 0.5×gross domestic product per capita, the projected probability of the intervention being cost-effective in Ethiopia and Indonesia was 87% and 96%, respectively. The intervention remained cost-effective under sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of the SOS stool method to national algorithms for diagnosing TB in children is likely to be cost-effective in both Ethiopia and Indonesia.

Discordant results of Xpert MTB/Rif assay and BACTEC MGIT 960 liquid culture to detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis in community screening in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/Rif, a molecular test to detect tuberculosis (TB), has been proven to have high sensitivity and specificity when compared with liquid culture in clinical settings. However, little is known about its performance in community TB screening. METHODS: In Vietnam, a national TB prevalence survey was conducted in 2017. Survey participants who screened positive by chest X-ray, cough symptoms and/or recent history of tuberculosis were requested to provide at least two sputum samples that were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis by Xpert MTB/Rif G4 (Xpert) and BACTEC MGIT960 culture (MGIT). RESULTS: There were 4,649 eligible participants provided both samples for testing. Among them, 236 (5.1%) participants tested positive for TB by Xpert, 244 (5.3%) tested positive by MGIT and 317 tested positive by at least one test; 163 (51.4%) had discordant test results. Of the positive Xpert, 162 (68.6%) showed a low or very low bacterial load. In multivariate logistic regression comparing discordant with Xpert-MGIT concordant positive results, discordant Xpert-positive results occurred more often among participants who had low sputum bacterial load, male sex, a history of TB treatment, or night sweats. The associated factors were male sex, abnormal chest X-ray and having night sweats when the logistic model was against those with both Xpert and MGIT negative. CONCLUSIONS: We found high rates of discordance in the performance of Xpert and MGIT for community-based TB case finding. In situations where the majority of TB cases are expected to have a low bacterial load, multiple diagnostic tests and/or multiple samples are required to reach sufficient sensitivity.

Social determinants of the changing tuberculosis prevalence in Viet Nam: Analysis of population-level cross-sectional studies.

BACKGROUND: An ecological relationship between economic development and reduction in tuberculosis prevalence has been observed. Between 2007 and 2017, Viet Nam experienced rapid economic development with equitable distribution of resources and a 37% reduction in tuberculosis prevalence. Analysing consecutive prevalence surveys, we examined how the reduction in tuberculosis (and subclinical tuberculosis) prevalence was concentrated between socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We combined data from 2 nationally representative Viet Nam tuberculosis prevalence surveys with provincial-level measures of poverty. Data from 94,156 (2007) and 61,763 (2017) individuals were included. Of people with microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis, 21.6% (47/218) in 2007 and 29.0% (36/124) in 2017 had subclinical disease. We constructed an asset index using principal component analysis of consumption data. An illness concentration index was estimated to measure socioeconomic position inequality in tuberculosis prevalence. The illness concentration index changed from -0.10 (95% CI -0.08, -0.16; p = 0.003) in 2007 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06, 0.18; p = 0.158) in 2017, indicating that tuberculosis was concentrated among the poorest households in 2007, with a shift towards more equal distribution between rich and poor households in 2017. This finding was similar for subclinical tuberculosis. We fitted multilevel models to investigate relationships between change in tuberculosis prevalence, individual risks, household socioeconomic position, and neighbourhood poverty. Controlling for provincial poverty level reduced the difference in prevalence, suggesting that changes in neighbourhood poverty contribute to the explanation of change in tuberculosis prevalence. A limitation of our study is that while tuberculosis prevalence surveys are valuable for understanding socioeconomic differences in tuberculosis prevalence in countries, given that tuberculosis is a relatively rare disease in the population studied, there is limited power to explore socioeconomic drivers. However, combining repeated cross-sectional surveys with provincial deprivation estimates during a period of remarkable economic growth provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the relationship between tuberculosis and economic development in Viet Nam. CONCLUSIONS: We found that with equitable economic growth and a reduction in tuberculosis burden, tuberculosis became less concentrated among the poor in Viet Nam.

Revisiting the Natural History of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Bayesian Estimation of Natural Recovery and Mortality Rates.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) natural history remains poorly characterized, and new investigations are impossible as it would be unethical to follow up TB patients without treatment. METHODS: We considered the reports identified in a previous systematic review of studies from the prechemotherapy era, and extracted detailed data on mortality over time. We used a Bayesian framework to estimate the rates of TB-induced mortality and self-cure. A hierarchical model was employed to allow estimates to vary by cohort. Inference was performed separately for smear-positive TB (SP-TB) and smear-negative TB (SN-TB). RESULTS: We included 41 cohorts of SP-TB patients and 19 cohorts of pulmonary SN-TB patients in the analysis. The median estimates of the TB-specific mortality rates were 0.389 year-1 (95% credible interval [CrI], .335-.449) and 0.025 year-1 (95% CrI, .017-.035) for SP-TB and SN-TB patients, respectively. The estimates for self-recovery rates were 0.231 year-1 (95% CrI, .177-.288) and 0.130 year-1 (95% CrI, .073-.209) for SP-TB and SN-TB patients, respectively. These rates correspond to average durations of untreated TB of 1.57 years (95% CrI, 1.37-1.81) and 5.35 years (95% CrI, 3.42-8.23) for SP-TB and SN-TB, respectively, when assuming a non-TB-related mortality rate of 0.014 year-1 (ie, a 70-year life expectancy). CONCLUSIONS: TB-specific mortality rates are around 15 times higher for SP-TB than for SN-TB patients. This difference was underestimated dramatically in previous TB modeling studies, raising concerns about the accuracy of the associated predictions. Despite being less infectious, SN-TB may be responsible for equivalent numbers of secondary infections as SP-TB due to its much longer duration.

Correction: The second national tuberculosis prevalence survey in Vietnam.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232142.].

The second national tuberculosis prevalence survey in Vietnam.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Vietnam. The current TB burden is unknown as not all individuals with TB are diagnosed, recorded and notified. The second national TB prevalence survey was conducted in 2017-2018 to assess the current burden of TB disease in the country. METHOD: Eighty-two clusters were selected using a multistage cluster sampling design. Adult (≥15 years of age) residents having lived for 2 weeks or more in the households of the selected clusters were invited to participate in the survey. The survey participants were screened for TB by a questionnaire and digital chest X-ray after providing written informed consent. Individuals with a positive symptom screen and/or chest X-ray suggestive of TB were asked to provide sputum samples to test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis by Ziehl-Neelsen direct light microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF G4, BACTEC MGIT960 liquid culture and Löwenstein-Jensen solid culture. Bacteriologically confirmed TB cases were defined by an expert panel following a standard decision tree. RESULT: Of 87,207 eligible residents, 61,763 (70.8%) participated, and 4,738 (7.7%) screened positive for TB. Among these, 221 participants were defined as bacteriologically confirmed TB cases. The estimated prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed adult pulmonary TB was 322 (95% CI: 260-399) per 100,000, and the male-to-female ratio was 4.0 (2.8-5.8, p<0.001). In-depth interviews with the participants with TB disease showed that only 57.9% (95% CI: 51.3-64.3%) reported cough for 2 weeks or more and 32.1% (26.3-38.6%) did not report any symptom consistent with TB, while their chest X-ray results showed that 97.7% (95% CI: 94.6-99.1) had abnormal chest X-ray images suggesting TB. CONCLUSION: With highly sensitive diagnostics applied, this survey showed that the TB burden in Vietnam remains high. Half of the TB cases were not picked up by general symptom-based screening and were identified by chest X-ray only. Our results indicate that improving TB diagnostic capacity and access to care, along with reducing TB stigma, need to be top priorities for TB control and elimination in Vietnam.

Infection control and tuberculosis among health care workers in Viet Nam, 2009-2013: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Data on tuberculosis (TB) among health care workers (HCW) and TB infection control (TBIC) indicators are rarely available at national level. We assessed multi-year trends in notification data of TB among HCW and explored possible associations with TBIC indicators. METHODS: Notified TB incidence among HCW and 3 other TBIC indicators were collected annually from all 64 provincial and 3 national TB facilities in Vietnam. Time trends in TB notification between 2009 and 2013 were assessed using linear regression analysis. Multivariate regression models were applied to assess associations between the facility-specific 5-year notification rate and TBIC indicators. RESULTS: Forty-seven (70 %) of 67 facilities contributed data annually over five years; 15 reported at least one HCW with TB in 2009 compared to six in 2013. The TB notification rate dropped from 593 to 197 per 100,000 HCW (ptrend = 0.02). Among 104 TB cases reported, 30 were employed at TB wards, 24 at other clinical wards, ten in the microbiology laboratory, six at the MDR-TB ward, and 34 in other positions. The proportion of facilities with a TBIC plan and focal person remained relatively stable between 70 % and 84 %. The proportion of facilities providing personal protective equipment (PPE) to their staff increased over time. Facilities with a TBIC focal person were 7.6 times more likely to report any TB cases than facilities without a focal person. CONCLUSIONS: The TB notification rates among HCW seemed to decrease over time. Availability of PPE increased over the same period. Appointing a TBIC focal person was associated with reporting of TB cases among HCW. It remains unclear whether TBIC measures helped in reduction of the TB notification rates in HCW.

The path to impact of operational research on tuberculosis control policies and practices in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Operational research is currently one of the pillars of the global strategy to control tuberculosis. Indonesia initiated capacity building for operational research on tuberculosis over the last decade. Although publication of the research in peer-reviewed journals is an important indicator for measuring the success of this endeavor, the influence of operational research on policy and practices is considered even more important. However, little is known about the process by which operational research influences tuberculosis control policy and practices. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the influence of operational research on tuberculosis control policy and practice in Indonesia between 2004 and 2014. DESIGN: Using a qualitative study design, we conducted in-depth interviews of 50 researchers and 30 policy makers/program managers and performed document reviews. Transcripts of these interviews were evaluated while applying content analysis. RESULTS: Operational research contributed to tuberculosis control policy and practice improvements, including development of new policies, introduction of new practices, and reinforcement of current program policies and practices. However, most of these developments had limited sustainability. The path from the dissemination of research results and recommendations to policy and practice changes was long and complex. The skills, interests, and political power of researchers and policy makers, as well as health system response, could influence the process. CONCLUSIONS: Operational research contributed to improving tuberculosis control policy and practices. A systematic approach to improve the sustainability of the impact of operational research should be explored.

Population Based National Tuberculosis Prevalence Survey among Adults (>15 Years) in Pakistan, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) amongst the adult population in 2010-2011 in Pakistan. METHOD: A nationwide cross-sectional survey with multistage cluster sampling was conducted among adults (≥15 years) in 95 clusters in 2010-2011. All consenting participants were screened for cough and by chest X-ray. Participants with presumptive TB submitted two sputum samples for smear microscopy, culture, and molecular testing if needed. The TB prevalence estimates were adjusted for missing data and the cluster design. RESULT: Of 131,329 eligible individuals, 105,913 (81%) participated in the survey, of whom 10,471 (9.9%) were eligible for sputum examination. We found 341 bacteriologically positive TB cases of whom 233 had sputum smear-positive TB. The adjusted prevalence estimates for smear and bacteriologically positive TB were 270/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 217-323), and 398/100,000 (95% CI 333-463), respectively. Only 61% of the diagnosed TB cases screened positive on symptoms (cough >2wks), whereas the other TB cases were detected based on X-ray abnormalities. The TB prevalence increased with age and was 1.8 times higher among men than women. The prevalence-to-notification ratio of smear-positive TB was 3.1 (95% CI 2.5-3.7), was higher among men than women, and increased with age. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that there is under-detection and/or -notification of TB, especially among men and elderly. TB control should be strengthened specifically in these risk groups. X-ray examination should be combined with symptom screening to enhance case detection.

Embedding operational research into national disease control programme: lessons from 10 years of experience in Indonesia.

There is growing recognition that operational research (OR) should be embedded into national disease control programmes. However, much of the current OR capacity building schemes are still predominantly driven by international agencies with limited integration into national disease control programmes. We demonstrated that it is possible to achieve a more sustainable capacity building effort across the country by establishing an OR group within the national tuberculosis (TB) control programme in Indonesia. Key challenges identified include long-term financial support, limited number of scientific publications, and difficulties in documenting impact on programmatic performance. External evaluation has expressed concerns in regard to utilisation of OR in policy making. Efforts to address this concern have been introduced recently and led to indications of increased utilisation of research evidence in policy making by the national TB control programme. Embedding OR in national disease control programmes is key in establishing an evidence-based disease control programme.

Factors associated to referral of tuberculosis suspects by private practitioners to community health centres in Bali Province, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: The contrast between the low proportion of tuberculosis (TB) suspects referred from private practitioners in Bali province and the high volume of TB suspects seeking care at private practices suggests problems with TB suspect referral from private practitioners to the public health sector. We aimed to identify key factors associated with the referral of TB suspects by private practitioners. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study conducted in Bali province, Indonesia. The cases were private practitioners who had referred at least one TB suspect to a community health centre between 1 January 2007 and the start of data collection, while the controls were private practitioners who had not referred a single TB suspect in the same time. RESULTS: The following factors were independently associated with referral of TB suspects by private practitioners: having received information about the directly observed treatment short-course (DOTS) strategy (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.1-3.8), ever having been visited by a district TB program officer (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.0-4.5), availability of TB suspect referral forms in the practice (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.5-5.2), and less than 5 km distance between the private practice and the laboratory for smear examination (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.2-4.0). CONCLUSIONS: Education and exposure of private practitioners to the TB program improves referral of TB suspects from private practitioners to the national TB program. We recommend that the TB program provides all private practitioners with information about the DOTS strategy and TB suspect referral forms, and organizes regular visits to private practitioners.

Epidemiology of isoniazid resistance mutations and their effect on tuberculosis treatment outcomes.

Isoniazid resistance is highly prevalent in Vietnam. We investigated the molecular and epidemiological characteristics and the association with first-line treatment outcomes of the main isoniazid resistance mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis in codon 315 of the katG and in the promoter region of the inhA gene. Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains with phenotypic resistance to isoniazid from consecutively diagnosed smear-positive tuberculosis patients in rural Vietnam were subjected to Genotype MTBDRplus testing to identify katG and inhA mutations. Treatment failure and relapse were determined by sputum culture. In total, 227 of 251 isoniazid-resistant strains (90.4%) had detectable mutations: 75.3% in katG codon 315 (katG315) and 28.2% in the inhA promoter region. katG315 mutations were significantly associated with pretreatment resistance to streptomycin, rifampin, and ethambutol but not with the Beijing genotype and predicted both unfavorable treatment outcome (treatment failure or death) and relapse; inhA promoter region mutations were only associated with resistance to streptomycin and relapse. In tuberculosis patients, M. tuberculosis katG315 mutations but not inhA mutations are associated with unfavorable treatment outcome. inhA mutations do, however, increase the risk of relapse, at least with treatment regimens that contain only isoniazid and ethambutol in the continuation phase.

Clustering of Beijing genotype Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from the Mekong delta in Vietnam on the basis of variable number of tandem repeat versus restriction fragment length polymorphism typing.

BACKGROUND: In comparison to restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing, variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) typing is easier to perform, faster and yields results in a simple, numerical format. Therefore, this technique has gained recognition as the new international gold standard in typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, some reports indicated that VNTR typing may be less suitable for Beijing genotype isolates. We therefore compared the performance of internationally standardized RFLP and 24 loci VNTR typing to discriminate among 100 Beijing genotype isolates from the Southern Vietnam. METHODS: Hundred Beijing genotype strains defined by spoligotyping were randomly selected and typed by RFLP and VNTR typing. The discriminatory power of VNTR and RFLP typing was compared using the Bionumerics software. RESULTS: Among 95 Beijing strains available for analysis, 14 clusters were identified comprising 34 strains and 61 unique profiles in 24 loci VNTR typing ((Hunter Gaston Discrimination Index (HGDI = 0.994)). 13 clusters containing 31 strains and 64 unique patterns in RFLP typing (HGDI = 0.994) were found. Nine RFLP clusters were subdivided by VNTR typing and 12 VNTR clusters were split by RFLP. Five isolates (5%) revealing double alleles or no signal in two or more loci in VNTR typing could not be analyzed. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 24 loci VNTR typing and RFLP typing had similar high-level of discrimination among 95 Beijing strains from Southern Vietnam. However, loci VNTR 154, VNTR 2461 and VNTR 3171 had hardly added any value to the level of discrimination.

Adverse events in healthy individuals and MDR-TB contacts treated with anti-tuberculosis drugs potentially effective for preventing development of MDR-TB: a systematic review.

A recent systematic review concluded that there is insufficient evidence on the effectiveness to support or reject preventive therapy for treatment of contacts of patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Whether preventive therapy is favorable depends both on the effectiveness and the adverse events of the drugs used. We performed a systematic review to assess adverse events in healthy individuals and MDR-TB contacts treated with anti-tuberculosis drugs potentially effective for preventing development of MDR-TB. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and other databases (August 2011). Record selection, data extraction, and study quality assessment were done in duplicate. The quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. Of 6,901 identified references, 20 studies were eligible. Among the 16 studies in healthy volunteers (a total of 87 persons on either levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, ofloxacin, or rifabutin, mostly for 1 week), serious adverse events and treatment discontinuation due to adverse events were rare (<1 and <5%, respectively), but mild adverse events frequently occurred. Due to small sample sizes of the levofloxacin and ofloxacin studies an increased frequency of mild adverse events compared to placebo could not be demonstrated or excluded. For moxifloxacin the comparative results were inconsistent. In four studies describing preventive therapy of MDR-TB contacts, therapy was stopped for 58-100% of the included persons because of the occurrence of adverse events ranging from mild adverse events such as nausea and dizziness to serious events requiring treatment. The quality of the evidence was very low. Although the number of publications and quality of evidence are low, the available evidence suggests that shortly after starting treatment the occurrence of serious adverse events is rare. Mild adverse events occur more frequently and may be of importance because these may provoke treatment interruption.

Increased transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing genotype strains associated with resistance to streptomycin: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing genotype is an emerging pathogen that is frequently associated with drug resistance. This suggests that drug resistant Beijing strains have a relatively high transmission fitness compared to other drug-resistant strains. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied the relative transmission fitness of the Beijing genotype in relation to anti-tuberculosis drug resistance in a population-based study of smear-positive tuberculosis patients prospectively recruited and studied over a 4-year period in rural Vietnam. Transmission fitness was analyzed by clustering of cases on basis of three DNA typing methods. Of 2531 included patients, 2207 (87%) were eligible for analysis of whom 936 (42%) were in a DNA fingerprint cluster. The clustering rate varied by genotype with 292/786 (37%) for the Beijing genotype, 527/802 (67%) for the East-African Indian (EAI) genotype, and 117/619 (19%) for other genotypes. Clustering was associated with the EAI compared to the Beijing genotype (adjusted odds ratio (OR(adj)) 3.4: 95% CI 2.8-4.4). Patients infected with streptomycin-resistant strains were less frequently clustered than patients infected with streptomycin-susceptible strains when these were of the EAI genotype (OR(adj) 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9), while this pattern was reversed for strains of the Beijing genotype (OR(adj) 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.8, p for difference 0.002). The strong association between Beijing and MDR-TB (OR(adj) 7.2; 95% CI 4.2-12.3) existed only if streptomycin resistance was present. CONCLUSIONS: Beijing genotype strains showed less overall transmissibility than EAI strains, but when comparisons were made within genotypes, Beijing strains showed increased transmission fitness when streptomycin-resistant, while the reverse was observed for EAI strains. The association between MDR-TB and Beijing genotype in this population was strongly dependent on resistance to streptomycin. Streptomycin resistance may provide Beijing strains with a fitness advantage over other genotypes and predispose to multidrug resistance in patients infected with Beijing strains.

Mixed tuberculosis infections in rural South Vietnam.

Tuberculosis patients may be infected with or have disease caused by more than one Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain, usually referred to as "mixed infections." These have mainly been observed in settings with a very high tuberculosis incidence and/or high HIV prevalence. We assessed the rate of mixed infections in a population-based study in rural Vietnam, where the prevalences of both HIV and tuberculosis are substantially lower than those in previous studies looking at mixed infections. In total, 1,248 M. tuberculosis isolates from the same number of patients were subjected to IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing, spoligotyping, and variable-number-tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing. We compared mixed infections identified by the presence of (i) discrepant RFLP and spoligotype patterns in isolates from the same patient and (ii) double alleles at ≥ 2 loci by VNTR typing and assessed epidemiological characteristics of these infections. RFLP/spoligotyping and VNTR typing identified 39 (3.1%) and 60 (4.8%) mixed infections, respectively (Cohen's kappa statistic, 0.57). The number of loci with double alleles in the VNTR pattern was strongly associated with the proportion of isolates with mixed infections according to RFLP/spoligotyping (P < 0.001). Mixed infections occurred more frequently in newly treated than in previously treated patients, were significantly associated with minor X-ray abnormalities, and were almost significantly associated with lower sputum smear grades. Although the infection pressure in our study area is lower than that in previously studied populations, mixed M. tuberculosis infections do occur in rural South Vietnam in at least 3.1% of cases.

Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory.

The Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing genotype does not affect tuberculosis treatment failure in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Studies have suggested that the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing genotype causes more severe clinical disease and higher treatment failure rates with standard regimens, possibly in association with an increased risk of acquiring drug resistance. We studied the effect of genotype on treatment failure in a rural area in Vietnam where multidrug resistance is strongly associated with the Beijing genotype. METHODS: In a population-based prospective cohort study, patients with smear-positive tuberculosis were tested before and after treatment by spoligotyping and drug susceptibility analysis. Reinfections were excluded by DNA fingerprinting. The outcome was treatment failure based on culture. RESULTS: Of 1106 patients eligible for analysis, 33 experienced treatment failure (3.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1%-4.1%). The proportion of failure was 5.3% (95% CI, 0.3%-7.9%) among 380 patients with Beijing genotype infections. Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis strongly predicted failure (odds ratio [OR], 114; 95% CI, 30-430). After adjusting for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, treatment failure was not associated with the Beijing genotype (adjusted OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.3-2.0). Amplification of drug resistance occurred in 3 patients (0.3%; 95% CI, 0.1%-0.7%) and was associated with multidrug resistance at baseline (P = .004) but not with the Beijing genotype. No multidrug resistance was created. CONCLUSION: The Beijing genotype was not associated with treatment failure in Vietnam; apparent associations were explained by the strong association of this genotype with multidrug resistance. Amplification of resistance in this patient population was rare.