Intraindividual time-varying dynamic network of affects: linear autoregressive mixed-effects models for ecological momentary assessment.

An interesting recent development in emotion research and clinical psychology is the discovery that affective states can be modeled as a network of temporally interacting moods or emotions. Additionally, external factors like stressors or treatments can influence the mood network by amplifying or dampening the activation of specific moods. Researchers have turned to multilevel autoregressive models to fit these affective networks using intensive longitudinal data gathered through ecological momentary assessment. Nonetheless, a more comprehensive examination of the performance of such models is warranted. In our study, we focus on simple directed intraindividual networks consisting of two interconnected mood nodes that mutually enhance or dampen each other. We also introduce a node representing external factors that affect both mood nodes unidirectionally. Importantly, we disregard the potential effects of a current mood/emotion on the perception of external factors. We then formalize the mathematical representation of such networks by exogenous linear autoregressive mixed-effects models. In this representation, the autoregressive coefficients signify the interactions between moods, while external factors are incorporated as exogenous covariates. We let the autoregressive and exogenous coefficients in the model have fixed and random components. Depending on the analysis, this leads to networks with variable structures over reasonable time units, such as days or weeks, which are captured by the variability of random effects. Furthermore, the fixed-effects parameters encapsulate a subject-specific network structure. Leveraging the well-established theoretical and computational foundation of linear mixed-effects models, we transform the autoregressive formulation to a classical one and utilize the existing methods and tools. To validate our approach, we perform simulations assuming our model as the true data-generating process. By manipulating a predefined set of parameters, we investigate the reliability and feasibility of our approach across varying numbers of observations, levels of noise intensity, compliance rates, and scalability to higher dimensions. Our findings underscore the challenges associated with estimating individualized parameters in the context of common longitudinal designs, where the required number of observations may often be unattainable. Moreover, our study highlights the sensitivity of autoregressive mixed-effect models to noise levels and the difficulty of scaling due to the substantial number of parameters.

Basal MET phosphorylation is an indicator of hepatocyte dysregulation in liver disease.

Chronic liver diseases are worldwide on the rise. Due to the rapidly increasing incidence, in particular in Western countries, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is gaining importance as the disease can develop into hepatocellular carcinoma. Lipid accumulation in hepatocytes has been identified as the characteristic structural change in MASLD development, but molecular mechanisms responsible for disease progression remained unresolved. Here, we uncover in primary hepatocytes from a preclinical model fed with a Western diet (WD) an increased basal MET phosphorylation and a strong downregulation of the PI3K-AKT pathway. Dynamic pathway modeling of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) signal transduction combined with global proteomics identifies that an elevated basal MET phosphorylation rate is the main driver of altered signaling leading to increased proliferation of WD-hepatocytes. Model-adaptation to patient-derived hepatocytes reveal patient-specific variability in basal MET phosphorylation, which correlates with patient outcome after liver surgery. Thus, dysregulated basal MET phosphorylation could be an indicator for the health status of the liver and thereby inform on the risk of a patient to suffer from liver failure after surgery.

Design of a Biohybrid Materials Circuit with Binary Decoder Functionality.

Synthetic biology applies concepts from electrical engineering and information processing to endow cells with computational functionality. Transferring the underlying molecular components into materials and wiring them according to topologies inspired by electronic circuit boards has yielded materials systems that perform selected computational operations. However, the limited functionality of available building blocks is restricting the implementation of advanced information-processing circuits into materials. Here, a set of protease-based biohybrid modules the bioactivity of which can either be induced or inhibited is engineered. Guided by a quantitative mathematical model and following a design-build-test-learn (DBTL) cycle, the modules are wired according to circuit topologies inspired by electronic signal decoders, a fundamental motif in information processing. A 2-input/4-output binary decoder for the detection of two small molecules in a material framework that can perform regulated outputs in form of distinct protease activities is designed. The here demonstrated smart material system is strongly modular and can be used for biomolecular information processing for example in advanced biosensing or drug delivery applications.

Likelihood-ratio test statistic for the finite-sample case in nonlinear ordinary differential equation models.

Likelihood ratios are frequently utilized as basis for statistical tests, for model selection criteria and for assessing parameter and prediction uncertainties, e.g. using the profile likelihood. However, translating these likelihood ratios into p-values or confidence intervals requires the exact form of the test statistic's distribution. The lack of knowledge about this distribution for nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models requires an approximation which assumes the so-called asymptotic setting, i.e. a sufficiently large amount of data. Since the amount of data from quantitative molecular biology is typically limited in applications, this finite-sample case regularly occurs for mechanistic models of dynamical systems, e.g. biochemical reaction networks or infectious disease models. Thus, it is unclear whether the standard approach of using statistical thresholds derived for the asymptotic large-sample setting in realistic applications results in valid conclusions. In this study, empirical likelihood ratios for parameters from 19 published nonlinear ODE benchmark models are investigated using a resampling approach for the original data designs. Their distributions are compared to the asymptotic approximation and statistical thresholds are checked for conservativeness. It turns out, that corrections of the likelihood ratios in such finite-sample applications are required in order to avoid anti-conservative results.

Activator-blocker model of transcriptional regulation by pioneer-like factors.

Zygotic genome activation (ZGA) in the development of flies, fish, frogs and mammals depends on pioneer-like transcription factors (TFs). Those TFs create open chromatin regions, promote histone acetylation on enhancers, and activate transcription. Here, we use the panel of single, double and triple mutants for zebrafish genome activators Pou5f3, Sox19b and Nanog, multi-omics and mathematical modeling to investigate the combinatorial mechanisms of genome activation. We show that Pou5f3 and Nanog act differently on synergistic and antagonistic enhancer types. Pou5f3 and Nanog both bind as pioneer-like TFs on synergistic enhancers, promote histone acetylation and activate transcription. Antagonistic enhancers are activated by binding of one of these factors. The other TF binds as non-pioneer-like TF, competes with the activator and blocks all its effects, partially or completely. This activator-blocker mechanism mutually restricts widespread transcriptional activation by Pou5f3 and Nanog and prevents premature expression of late developmental regulators in the early embryo.

Uncovering specific mechanisms across cell types in dynamical models.

Ordinary differential equations are frequently employed for mathematical modeling of biological systems. The identification of mechanisms that are specific to certain cell types is crucial for building useful models and to gain insights into the underlying biological processes. Regularization techniques have been proposed and applied to identify mechanisms specific to two cell types, e.g., healthy and cancer cells, including the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). However, when analyzing more than two cell types, these approaches are not consistent, and require the selection of a reference cell type, which can affect the results. To make the regularization approach applicable to identifying cell-type specific mechanisms in any number of cell types, we propose to incorporate the clustered LASSO into the framework of ordinary differential equation modeling by penalizing the pairwise differences of the logarithmized fold-change parameters encoding a specific mechanism in different cell types. The symmetry introduced by this approach renders the results independent of the reference cell type. We discuss the necessary adaptations of state-of-the-art numerical optimization techniques and the process of model selection for this method. We assess the performance with realistic biological models and synthetic data, and demonstrate that it outperforms existing approaches. Finally, we also exemplify its application to published biological models including experimental data, and link the results to independent biological measurements.

Dynamic Modelling of Mental Resilience in Young Adults: Protocol for a Longitudinal Observational Study (DynaM-OBS).

BACKGROUND: Stress-related mental disorders are highly prevalent and pose a substantial burden on individuals and society. Improving strategies for the prevention and treatment of mental disorders requires a better understanding of their risk and resilience factors. This multicenter study aims to contribute to this endeavor by investigating psychological resilience in healthy but susceptible young adults over 9 months. Resilience is conceptualized in this study as the maintenance of mental health or quick recovery from mental health perturbations upon exposure to stressors, assessed longitudinally via frequent monitoring of stressors and mental health. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the factors predicting mental resilience and adaptive processes and mechanisms contributing to mental resilience and to provide a methodological and evidence-based framework for later intervention studies. METHODS: In a multicenter setting, across 5 research sites, a sample with a total target size of 250 young male and female adults was assessed longitudinally over 9 months. Participants were included if they reported at least 3 past stressful life events and an elevated level of (internalizing) mental health problems but were not presently affected by any mental disorder other than mild depression. At baseline, sociodemographic, psychological, neuropsychological, structural, and functional brain imaging; salivary cortisol and α-amylase levels; and cardiovascular data were acquired. In a 6-month longitudinal phase 1, stressor exposure, mental health problems, and perceived positive appraisal were monitored biweekly in a web-based environment, while ecological momentary assessments and ecological physiological assessments took place once per month for 1 week, using mobile phones and wristbands. In a subsequent 3-month longitudinal phase 2, web-based monitoring was reduced to once a month, and psychological resilience and risk factors were assessed again at the end of the 9-month period. In addition, samples for genetic, epigenetic, and microbiome analyses were collected at baseline and at months 3 and 6. As an approximation of resilience, an individual stressor reactivity score will be calculated. Using regularized regression methods, network modeling, ordinary differential equations, landmarking methods, and neural net-based methods for imputation and dimension reduction, we will identify the predictors and mechanisms of stressor reactivity and thus be able to identify resilience factors and mechanisms that facilitate adaptation to stressors. RESULTS: Participant inclusion began in October 2020, and data acquisition was completed in June 2022. A total of 249 participants were assessed at baseline, 209 finished longitudinal phase 1, and 153 finished longitudinal phase 2. CONCLUSIONS: The Dynamic Modelling of Resilience-Observational Study provides a methodological framework and data set to identify predictors and mechanisms of mental resilience, which are intended to serve as an empirical foundation for future intervention studies. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/39817.

Mutual repression between JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT stratifies senescent and proliferative cell behaviors during tissue regeneration.

Epithelial repair relies on the activation of stress signaling pathways to coordinate tissue repair. Their deregulation is implicated in chronic wound and cancer pathologies. Using TNF-α/Eiger-mediated inflammatory damage to Drosophila imaginal discs, we investigate how spatial patterns of signaling pathways and repair behaviors arise. We find that Eiger expression, which drives JNK/AP-1 signaling, transiently arrests proliferation of cells in the wound center and is associated with activation of a senescence program. This includes production of the mitogenic ligands of the Upd family, which allows JNK/AP-1-signaling cells to act as paracrine organizers of regeneration. Surprisingly, JNK/AP-1 cell-autonomously suppress activation of Upd signaling via Ptp61F and Socs36E, both negative regulators of JAK/STAT signaling. As mitogenic JAK/STAT signaling is suppressed in JNK/AP-1-signaling cells at the center of tissue damage, compensatory proliferation occurs by paracrine activation of JAK/STAT in the wound periphery. Mathematical modelling suggests that cell-autonomous mutual repression between JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT is at the core of a regulatory network essential to spatially separate JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT signaling into bistable spatial domains associated with distinct cellular tasks. Such spatial stratification is essential for proper tissue repair, as coactivation of JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT in the same cells creates conflicting signals for cell cycle progression, leading to excess apoptosis of senescently stalled JNK/AP-1-signaling cells that organize the spatial field. Finally, we demonstrate that bistable separation of JNK/AP-1 and JAK/STAT drives bistable separation of senescent signaling and proliferative behaviors not only upon tissue damage, but also in RasV12, scrib tumors. Revealing this previously uncharacterized regulatory network between JNK/AP-1, JAK/STAT, and associated cell behaviors has important implications for our conceptual understanding of tissue repair, chronic wound pathologies, and tumor microenvironments.

Engineering a material-genetic interface as safety switch for embedded therapeutic cells.

Encapsulated cell-based therapies involve the use of genetically-modified cells embedded in a material in order to produce a therapeutic agent in a specific location in the patient's body. This approach has shown great potential in animal model systems for treating diseases such as type I diabetes or cancer, with selected approaches having been tested in clinical trials. Despite the promise shown by encapsulated cell therapy, though, there are safety concerns yet to be addressed, such as the escape of the engineered cells from the encapsulation material and the resulting production of therapeutic agents at uncontrolled sites in the body. For that reason, there is great interest in the implementation of safety switches that protect from those side effects. Here, we develop a material-genetic interface as safety switch for engineered mammalian cells embedded into hydrogels. Our switch allows the therapeutic cells to sense whether they are embedded in the hydrogel by means of a synthetic receptor and signaling cascade that link transgene expression to the presence of an intact embedding material. The system design is highly modular, allowing its flexible adaptation to other cell types and embedding materials. This autonomously acting switch constitutes an advantage over previously described safety switches, which rely on user-triggered signals to modulate activity or survival of the implanted cells. We envision that the concept developed here will advance the safety of cell therapies and facilitate their translation to clinical evaluation.

Detecting frequency modulation in stochastic time-series data.

We propose a statistical test to identify nonstationary frequency-modulated stochastic processes from time-series data. Our method uses the instantaneous phase as a discriminatory statistics with reliable critical values derived from surrogate data. We simulated an oscillatory second-order autoregressive process to evaluate the size and power of the test. We found that the test we propose is able to correctly identify more than 99% of nonstationary data when the frequency of the simulated data is doubled after the first half of the time series. Our method is easily interpretable, computationally cheap, and does not require choosing hyperparameters that are dependent on the data.

BlotIt-Optimal alignment of Western blot and qPCR experiments.

Biological systems are frequently analyzed by means of mechanistic mathematical models. In order to infer model parameters and provide a useful model that can be employed for systems understanding and hypothesis testing, the model is often calibrated on quantitative, time-resolved data. To do so, it is typically important to compare experimental measurements over broad time ranges and various experimental conditions, e.g. perturbations of the biological system. However, most of the established experimental techniques such as Western blot, or quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction only provide measurements on a relative scale, since different sample volumes, experimental adjustments or varying development times of a gel lead to systematic shifts in the data. In turn, the number of measurements corresponding to the same scale enabling comparability is limited. Here, we present a new flexible method to align measurement data that obeys different scaling factors and compare it to existing normalization approaches. We propose an alignment model to estimate these scaling factors and provide the possibility to adapt this model depending on the measurement technique of interest. In addition, an error model can be specified to adequately weight the different data points and obtain scaling-model based confidence intervals of the finally scaled data points. Our approach is applicable to all sorts of relative measurements and does not need a particular experimental condition that has been measured over all available scales. An implementation of the method is provided with the R package blotIt including refined ways of visualization.

Disentangling ERBB Signaling in Breast Cancer Subtypes-A Model-Based Analysis.

Targeted therapies have shown striking success in the treatment of cancer over the last years. However, their specific effects on an individual tumor appear to be varying and difficult to predict. Using an integrative modeling approach that combines mechanistic and regression modeling, we gained insights into the response mechanisms of breast cancer cells due to different ligand-drug combinations. The multi-pathway model, capturing ERBB receptor signaling as well as downstream MAPK and PI3K pathways was calibrated on time-resolved data of the luminal breast cancer cell lines MCF7 and T47D across an array of four ligands and five drugs. The same model was then successfully applied to triple negative and HER2-positive breast cancer cell lines, requiring adjustments mostly for the respective receptor compositions within these cell lines. The additional relevance of cell-line-specific mutations in the MAPK and PI3K pathway components was identified via L1 regularization, where the impact of these mutations on pathway activation was uncovered. Finally, we predicted and experimentally validated the proliferation response of cells to drug co-treatments. We developed a unified mathematical model that can describe the ERBB receptor and downstream signaling in response to therapeutic drugs targeting this clinically relevant signaling network in cell line that represent three major subtypes of breast cancer. Our data and model suggest that alterations in this network could render anti-HER therapies relevant beyond the HER2-positive subtype.

Dynamic modeling of Nrf2 pathway activation in liver cells after toxicant exposure.

Cells are exposed to oxidative stress and reactive metabolites every day. The Nrf2 signaling pathway responds to oxidative stress by upregulation of antioxidants like glutathione (GSH) to compensate the stress insult and re-establish homeostasis. Although mechanisms describing the interaction between the key pathway constituents Nrf2, Keap1 and p62 are widely reviewed and discussed in literature, quantitative dynamic models bringing together these mechanisms with time-resolved data are limited. Here, we present an ordinary differential equation (ODE) based dynamic model to describe the dynamic response of Nrf2, Keap1, Srxn1 and GSH to oxidative stress caused by the soft-electrophile diethyl maleate (DEM). The time-resolved data obtained by single-cell confocal microscopy of green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporters and qPCR of the Nrf2 pathway components complemented with siRNA knock down experiments, is accurately described by the calibrated mathematical model. We show that the quantitative model can describe the activation of the Nrf2 pathway by compounds with a different mechanism of activation, including drugs which are known for their ability to cause drug induced liver-injury (DILI) i.e., diclofenac (DCF) and omeprazole (OMZ). Finally, we show that our model can reveal differences in the processes leading to altered activation dynamics amongst DILI inducing drugs.

Individualizing deep dynamic models for psychological resilience data.

Deep learning approaches can uncover complex patterns in data. In particular, variational autoencoders achieve this by a non-linear mapping of data into a low-dimensional latent space. Motivated by an application to psychological resilience in the Mainz Resilience Project, which features intermittent longitudinal measurements of stressors and mental health, we propose an approach for individualized, dynamic modeling in this latent space. Specifically, we utilize ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and develop a novel technique for obtaining person-specific ODE parameters even in settings with a rather small number of individuals and observations, incomplete data, and a differing number of observations per individual. This technique allows us to subsequently investigate individual reactions to stimuli, such as the mental health impact of stressors. A potentially large number of baseline characteristics can then be linked to this individual response by regularized regression, e.g., for identifying resilience factors. Thus, our new method provides a way of connecting different kinds of complex longitudinal and baseline measures via individualized, dynamic models. The promising results obtained in the exemplary resilience application indicate that our proposal for dynamic deep learning might also be more generally useful for other application domains.

Optimal Experimental Design Based on Two-Dimensional Likelihood Profiles.

Dynamic behavior of biological systems is commonly represented by non-linear models such as ordinary differential equations. A frequently encountered task in such systems is the estimation of model parameters based on measurement of biochemical compounds. Non-linear models require special techniques to estimate the uncertainty of the obtained model parameters and predictions, e.g. by exploiting the concept of the profile likelihood. Model parameters with significant uncertainty associated with their estimates hinder the interpretation of model results. Informing these model parameters by optimal experimental design minimizes the additional amount of data and therefore resources required in experiments. However, existing techniques of experimental design either require prior parameter distributions in Bayesian approaches or do not adequately deal with the non-linearity of the system in frequentist approaches. For identification of optimal experimental designs, we propose a two-dimensional profile likelihood approach, providing a design criterion which meaningfully represents the expected parameter uncertainty after measuring data for a specified experimental condition. The described approach is implemented into the open source toolbox Data2Dynamics in Matlab. The applicability of the method is demonstrated on an established systems biology model. For this demonstration, available data has been censored to simulate a setting in which parameters are not yet well determined. After determining the optimal experimental condition from the censored ones, a realistic evaluation was possible by re-introducing the censored data point corresponding to the optimal experimental condition. This provided a validation that our method is feasible in real-world applications. The approach applies to, but is not limited to, models in systems biology.

Efficient simulation of clinical target response surfaces.

Simulation of combination therapies is challenging due to computational complexity. Either a simple model is used to simulate the response for many combinations of concentration to generate a response surface but parameter variability and uncertainty are neglected and the concentrations are constant-the link to the doses to be administered is difficult to make-or a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model is used to predict the response to combination therapy in a clinical trial taking into account the time-varying concentration profile, interindividual variability (IIV), and parameter uncertainty but simulations are limited to only a few selected doses. We devised new algorithms to efficiently search for the combination doses that achieve a predefined efficacy target while taking into account the IIV and parameter uncertainty. The result of this method is a response surface of confidence levels, indicating for all dose combinations the likelihood of reaching the specified efficacy target. We highlight the importance to simulate across a population rather than focus on an individual. Finally, we provide examples of potential applications, such as informing experimental design.

Pluripotency factors determine gene expression repertoire at zygotic genome activation.

Awakening of zygotic transcription in animal embryos relies on maternal pioneer transcription factors. The interplay of global and specific functions of these proteins remains poorly understood. Here, we analyze chromatin accessibility and time-resolved transcription in single and double mutant zebrafish embryos lacking pluripotency factors Pou5f3 and Sox19b. We show that two factors modify chromatin in a largely independent manner. We distinguish four types of direct enhancers by differential requirements for Pou5f3 or Sox19b. We demonstrate that changes in chromatin accessibility of enhancers underlie the changes in zygotic expression repertoire in the double mutants. Pou5f3 or Sox19b promote chromatin accessibility of enhancers linked to the genes involved in gastrulation and ventral fate specification. The genes regulating mesendodermal and dorsal fates are primed for activation independently of Pou5f3 and Sox19b. Strikingly, simultaneous loss of Pou5f3 and Sox19b leads to premature expression of genes, involved in regulation of organogenesis and differentiation.

Preventing COVID-19 outbreaks through surveillance testing in healthcare facilities: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance testing within healthcare facilities provides an opportunity to prevent severe outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the quantitative impact of different available surveillance strategies and their potential to decrease the frequency of outbreaks are not well-understood. METHODS: We establish an individual-based model representative of a mental health hospital yielding generalizable results. Attributes and features of this facility were derived from a prototypical hospital, which provides psychiatric, psychosomatic and psychotherapeutic treatment. We estimate the relative reduction of outbreak probability for three test strategies (entry test, once-weekly test and twice-weekly test) relative to a symptom-based baseline strategy. Based on our findings, we propose determinants of successful surveillance measures. RESULTS: Entry Testing reduced the outbreak probability by 26%, additionally testing once or twice weekly reduced the outbreak probability by 49% or 67% respectively. We found that fast diagnostic test results and adequate compliance of the clinic population are mandatory for conducting effective surveillance. The robustness of these results towards uncertainties is demonstrated via comprehensive sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that active testing in mental health hospitals and similar facilities considerably reduces the number of COVID-19 outbreaks compared to symptom-based surveillance only.

MSPypeline: a python package for streamlined data analysis of mass spectrometry-based proteomics.

Summary: Mass spectrometry-based proteomics is increasingly employed in biology and medicine. To generate reliable information from large datasets and ensure comparability of results, it is crucial to implement and standardize the quality control of the raw data, the data processing steps and the statistical analyses. MSPypeline provides a platform for importing MaxQuant output tables, generating quality control reports, data preprocessing including normalization and performing exploratory analyses by statistical inference plots. These standardized steps assess data quality, provide customizable figures and enable the identification of differentially expressed proteins to reach biologically relevant conclusions. Availability and implementation: The source code is available under the MIT license at https://github.com/siheming/mspypeline with documentation at https://mspypeline.readthedocs.io. Benchmark mass spectrometry data are available on ProteomeXchange (PXD025792). Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics Advances online.

Magnitude of Ubiquitination Determines the Fate of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Upon Ligand Stimulation.

Receptor tyrosine kinases (RTK) bind growth factors and are critical for cell proliferation and differentiation. Their dysregulation leads to a loss of growth control, often resulting in cancer. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is the prototypic RTK and can bind several ligands exhibiting distinct mitogenic potentials. Whereas the phosphorylation on individual EGFR sites and their roles for downstream signaling have been extensively studied, less is known about ligand-specific ubiquitination events on EGFR, which are crucial for signal attenuation and termination. We used a proteomics-based workflow for absolute quantitation combined with mathematical modeling to unveil potentially decisive ubiquitination events on EGFR from the first 30 seconds to 15 minutes of stimulation. Four ligands were used for stimulation: epidermal growth factor (EGF), heparin-binding-EGF like growth factor, transforming growth factor-α and epiregulin. Whereas only little differences in the order of individual ubiquitination sites were observed, the overall amount of modified receptor differed depending on the used ligand, indicating that absolute magnitude of EGFR ubiquitination, and not distinctly regulated ubiquitination sites, is a major determinant for signal attenuation and the subsequent cellular outcomes.