Performance of the SCORE and Globorisk cardiovascular risk prediction models: a prospective cohort study in Dutch general practice.

BACKGROUND: GPs frequently use 10-year-risk estimations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to identify high- risk patients. AIM: To assess the performance of four models for predicting the 10-year risk of CVD in Dutch general practice. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study. Routine data (2009- 2019) was used from 46 Dutch general practices linked to cause of death statistics. METHOD: The outcome measures were fatal CVD for SCORE and first diagnosis of fatal or non- fatal CVD for SCORE fatal and non-fatal (SCORE- FNF), Globorisk-laboratory, and Globorisk-office. Model performance was assessed by examining discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: The final number of patients for risk prediction was 1981 for SCORE and SCORE-FNF, 3588 for Globorisk-laboratory, and 4399 for Globorisk- office. The observed percentage of events was 18.6% (n = 353) for SCORE- FNF, 6.9% (n = 230) for Globorisk-laboratory, 7.9% (n = 323) for Globorisk-office, and 0.3% (n = 5) for SCORE. The models showed poor discrimination and calibration. The performance of SCORE could not be examined because of the limited number of fatal CVD events. SCORE-FNF, the model that is currently used for risk prediction of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice, was found to underestimate the risk in all deciles of predicted risks. CONCLUSION: Wide eligibility criteria and a broad outcome measure contribute to the model applicability in daily practice. The restriction to fatal CVD outcomes of SCORE renders it less usable in routine Dutch general practice. The models seriously underestimate the 10-year risk of fatal plus non-fatal CVD in Dutch general practice. The poor model performance is possibly because of differences between patients that are eligible for risk prediction and the population that was used for model development. In addition, selection of higher-risk patients for CVD risk assessment by GPs may also contribute to the poor model performance.

[Conservative therapy in kidney failure]. / Conservatieve therapie bij nierfalen.

At a certain point, patients with kidney failure will need to decide whether or not to start kidney replacement therapy, i.e. dialysis or kidney transplantation. An increasing number of patients choose to forgo dialysis or transplantation and opt for conservative care. In part, this trend is explained by the ageing population of patients with kidney failure and a more limited survival benefit for dialysis in older patients. Conservative care is a holistic, patient-orientated treatment, aimed at quality of life, advance care planning, reducing symptom burden, and slowing the deterioration of kidney function. As such, conservative care is an active treatment and not merely forgoing kidney replacement therapy. This article will summarize the various aspects of the decision- and treatment phase of conservative care for patients with kidney failure for healthcare providers, both in hospital- and primary care.

[Revision Dutch Guideline Cardiovascular Disease Prevention 2019]. / Herziene richtlijn 'Cardiovasculair risicomanagement'.

The multidisciplinary guideline 'Cardiovascular risk management'(CVRM) appeared in March 2019. It has also been published in the form of a Dutch College of General Practitioners guideline. The CVRM guideline describes the whole spectrum of diagnostics and measures to prevent cardiovascular disease. The guideline also introduces a new classification of risk categories. Lifestyle remains the basis of treatment. Target values for blood pressure and cholesterol have been revised, and there is a specific focus on the elderly. The guideline also concentrates on measures at population level and recommends that primary care should take a programmatic approach to those people at high or very high risk. Working with the patient through the provision of good information and an individual care plan is essential for this.