RESUMEN
Background: We developed and validated a machine learning diagnostic model for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease, integrating artificial-intelligence-based computed tomography (CT) imaging and clinical features. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in 11 Japanese tertiary care facilities that treated COVID-19 patients. Participants were tested using both real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and chest CTs between January 1 and May 30, 2020. We chronologically split the dataset in each hospital into training and test sets, containing patients in a 7:3 ratio. A Light Gradient Boosting Machine model was used for the analysis. Results: A total of 703 patients were included, and two models-the full model and the A-blood model-were developed for their diagnosis. The A-blood model included eight variables (the Ali-M3 confidence, along with seven clinical features of blood counts and biochemistry markers). The areas under the receiver-operator curve of both models [0.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86 to 0.95 for the full model and 0.90, 95% CI: 0.86 to 0.94 for the A-blood model] were better than that of the Ali-M3 confidence (0.78, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.83) in the test set. Conclusions: The A-blood model, a COVID-19 diagnostic model developed in this study, combines machine-learning and CT evaluation with blood test data and performs better than the Ali-M3 framework existing for this purpose. This would significantly aid physicians in making a quicker diagnosis of COVID-19.
RESUMEN
Ali-M3, an artificial intelligence program, analyzes chest computed tomography (CT) and detects the likelihood of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on scores ranging from 0 to 1. However, Ali-M3 has not been externally validated. Our aim was to evaluate the accuracy of Ali-M3 for detecting COVID-19 and discuss its clinical value. We evaluated the external validity of Ali-M3 using sequential Japanese sampling data. In this retrospective cohort study, COVID-19 infection probabilities for 617 symptomatic patients were determined using Ali-M3. In 11 Japanese tertiary care facilities, these patients underwent reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. They also underwent chest CT to confirm a diagnosis of COVID-19. Of the 617 patients, 289 (46.8%) were RT-PCR-positive. The area under the curve (AUC) of Ali-M3 for predicting a COVID-19 diagnosis was 0.797 (95% confidence interval: 0.762â0.833) and the goodness-of-fit was P = 0.156. With a cut-off probability of a diagnosis of COVID-19 by Ali-M3 set at 0.5, the sensitivity and specificity were 80.6% and 68.3%, respectively. A cut-off of 0.2 yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 89.2% and 43.2%, respectively. Among the 223 patients who required oxygen, the AUC was 0.825. Sensitivity at a cut-off of 0.5% and 0.2% was 88.7% and 97.9%, respectively. Although the sensitivity was lower when the days from symptom onset were fewer, the sensitivity increased for both cut-off values after 5 days. We evaluated Ali-M3 using external validation with symptomatic patient data from Japanese tertiary care facilities. As Ali-M3 showed sufficient sensitivity performance, despite a lower specificity performance, Ali-M3 could be useful in excluding a diagnosis of COVID-19.
