Quality of relationships in mothers and their partners in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

Quality of relationship between partners is associated with a wide range of physical and psychological outcomes like anxiety and depression. There are relatively few longitudinal studies with detailed and repeated measures for quality of relationship, particularly in both partners. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a large birth cohort study in the UK with five post-partum repeated measures of quality of relationship between mothers and their partners assessed using the Intimate Bond Measure (IBM). The Measure includes two subscales named "Care" and "Control". These were measured at 2.75, 6, 9, 12, and 18 years post-partum (baseline N for mothers: 8675; baseline N for partners: 5499). The aims of this data note are to provide a comprehensive overview on the existing IBM data in ALSPAC and to describe both its strengths and limitations for future users. The internal consistency of the subscales were high (Cronbach's alpha 0.95 and 0.88 for the Care and Control subscales) in both mothers and their partners at the baseline. In the Care subscale, all 12 items were highly correlated with the overall score (r>0.62) at the baseline, but in the Control subscale there were three items that had relatively low correlations with the total subscale (r<0.46). This should be taken into account in future research. The longitudinal nature of this data on both mothers and partners will enable detailed explorations of the causes and consequences of differences in quality of relationship.

Burn Wound Healing Effect of a Sterilized Traditional Formulation of Boswellia carteri vs. Silver Sulfadiazine Cream 1% in Patients Presenting Second-degree Burn Wounds: A Randomized, Double-blind Clinical Trial.

Background: Burn wounds rank among the most serious healthcare issues. Many studies reported the effectiveness of natural products in the wound-healing process. The present study compared the effects of a standardized herbal formulation derived from Boswellia carteri (B. carteri) and silver sulfadiazine (SSD) cream 1% on the healing of burn wounds. Methods: This randomized double-blind clinical trial was conducted at Shiraz Burn Hospital (Shiraz, Iran) between July 2012 to August 2013. A sterilized formulation comprising B. carteri 40% was prepared. 54 second-degree burn patients of both sexes with age ranges of 20 to 60 were invited to participate in this double-blind, randomized clinical trial. They were randomly divided into two groups and given either the Boswellia formulation or SSD cream. The healing index was determined based on the wound area assessment using the planimetry technique. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to assess the primary outcome, which was the amount of time until complete healing. Results: The trial was completed by 17 patients from the SSD group and 15 patients from the Boswellia group. During the study period, both groups showed a progressive healing trend. The mean (95% CI) healing time in the SSD group was 10.94 (9.03-12.85) days and 10.73 (9.23-12.23) days in the Boswellia group (P=0.71), indicating no significant difference. On the 17th day, the healing index of all patients in the Boswellia group reached 1. Conclusion: Boswellia topical formulation had a burn wound healing effect comparable to that of the standard SSD 1% treatment. Based on the findings of this study, the likelihood of contact dermatitis with Boswellia should be taken into consideration.

Opium Use and the Risk of Cataract: a Hospital-based, Group-matched, Case-control Study in Iran.

PURPOSE: Cataract is the most prevalent cause of reversible blindness worldwide. Although studies have identified risk factors for cataract, its association with opium use has not been studied. This study aimed to evaluate the association between opium use and cataract in Iran in 2020. METHODS: In a hospital-based, group-matched case-control study in Kerman, a city in southeast Iran, 160 new cases of cataract and 320 controls without cataract underwent ophthalmological examination and were interviewed. Logistic regression models tested the association between cataract and history of opium use, adjusting for demographic characteristics and history of hypertension, coronary heart disease, renal disease, smoking, alcohol use, and unprotected sun exposure. RESULTS: After controlling for potential confounders, opium use increased the odds of cataract, exhibiting a dose-response relationship. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for mild use was 1.44 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.80-2.58), and 2.10 (95% CI 1.04-4.25) for heavy use. Exposure to opium juice use further increased the odds of cataract (aOR 2.24, 95% CI 1.00-5.10). Other significant associations with cataract were lower education level (aOR 5.46, 95% CI 2.45-11.29), being unmarried (aOR 2.88, 95% CI 1.65-5.00), both underweight (BMI <18.5, aOR 5.27, 95% CI 2.02-13.70) and overweight (BMI >25, aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15-2.87), and family history of cataract (aOR 2.07, 95% CI 1.32-3.23). CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence that opium use could increase the odds of cataract. Results also support the association of cataract with other modifiable risk factors, such as very low and high BMI and unprotected sun exposure.

A randomized clinical trial on the effect of foot reflexology performed in the fourth stage of labor on uterine afterpain.

BACKGROUND: Uterine afterpains are among the most prevalent complaints after natural vaginal delivery. Non-pharmacological treatment modalities to relieve afterpains are an important care priority. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of foot reflexology in the fourth stage of labor on afterpains in multiparous women. METHODS: This single-blind, randomized, clinical trial recruited 80 eligible pregnant women presenting to Allameh Bohlool Hospital in Gonabad and 17-Shahrivar Hospital in Mashhad, Iran, in 2019. In the first and second hours postpartum, the reflexology group received 10 min of general massage and specific reflexology massage on each foot on the uterine, pituitary, and solar plexus points. The control group received 10 min of general massage, and then rotational massage on a neutral point on the lateral side of the heel. The pain was measured every hour up to 4 h postpartum using a visual analogue  scale. The collected data were analyzed in SPSS-16 software at a significance level of P < 0.05. RESULTS: The median of the afterpain score in the first hour (P = 0.05) and second hour (P = 0.274) postpartum did not differ significantly between the two groups, but this score was lower in the reflexology group at the third hour (P < 0.001) and fourth hour (P < 0.001) postpartum. The mean total afterpain score in the 4 h postpartum was significantly lower in the reflexology group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The results revealed that foot reflexology in the fourth stage of labor has positive effects on relief from uterine afterpain. Reflexology is therefore recommended as a measure to reduce postpartum uterine afterpains.

Demographic and socioeconomic predictors of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours in a prospective cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England: Results from the parental generation.

Background: We explored associations between possible demographic and socioeconomic causes of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours (RSBB) in the parental generation of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Methods : We used a prospective birth cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England with 14,157 enrolled mothers and 14,154 associated partners. Three RSBB outcome measures collected during pregnancy were examined: religious belief (belief in God/a divine power; yes/not sure/no), religious affiliation (Christian/none/other) and religious attendance (frequency of attendance at a place of worship). Multiple demographic and socioeconomic exposures were assessed (23 in mothers and 22 in partners). We explored age-adjusted associations between each exposure and outcome using multinomial regression, in addition to exposure-age interactions. Results: Many demographic and socioeconomic factors were associated with RSBB, including age, ethnicity, marital status, education, income and deprivation. Overall, higher socioeconomic position was associated with increased levels of RSBB, particularly regarding religious attendance. For instance, compared to mothers with the lowest level of educational attainment, a degree-level education was associated with a six-fold increase in the relative risk ratio of religious attendance at least once a week, relative to not attending at all (RRR=5.90; 95% CI=[4.44; 7.86]). The magnitude of these associations often varied by outcome, e.g., income was associated with religious attendance, but only weakly with religious affiliation. Although results were demographically and socially patterned, overall effect sizes were relatively small, with a largest pseudo- R 2 value of 2.4%. Patterns of association were similar for mothers and partners. Conclusion: The observed positive association between socioeconomic position and RSBB is contrary to much previous theoretical and empirical work. Potential reasons for these differences are discussed, including cross-cultural variation in religiosity and state support, and differences between RSBB measures. This descriptive paper can also help inform future studies using these data regarding the consideration of appropriate confounders.

Estimating COVID-19-Related Infections, Deaths, and Hospitalizations in Iran Under Different Physical Distancing and Isolation Scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios. METHODS: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800). CONCLUSION: With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.

Sleep quality and risk of recurrent aphthous ulcers: A Spanish cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Recurrent aphthous stomatitis (RAS) is a condition that affects 20% of the world population and is characterized by painful ulcers in the oral mucosa. So far, the epidemiology and risk factors of RAS have been infrequently studied. Our objective was to determine whether sleep-related factors are related to the occurrence of RAS in the first prospective study carried out on this topic. METHODS: A cohort of 11210 Spanish students, 13-17 years old, was followed up for one year. Sleep disorders were assessed at baseline using a standard validated questionnaire. RESULTS: We detected 2655 new cases of RAS with a total of 287,262 person-week of follow-up. Subjects with high (4th quartile) Insomnia Index showed an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of RAS of 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.45), while subjects with high Hypersomnia Index presented an IRR of 1.42 (95% CI 1.26-1.61). A high score of sleep-related phenomena was also associated with an increased IRR: 1.53 (95% CI 1.37-1.69). Adolescents with high level of sleep satisfaction were at lower risk of RAS: 0.88 (95% CI 0.77-1.01). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that sleep disorders are moderately associated with RAS in adolescents.

The Epidemiology of Burn and Lethal Area of Fifty Percentage (LA50) in Children in Shiraz, Southern Iran.

BACKGROUND: This study was conducted to assess the epidemiology of burn and lethal area of fifty percentage (LA50) in children in Shiraz, Southern Iran. METHODS: In this case series study, 619 hospitalized burn children from burn centers affiliated to Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran from 2012 to 2016 were enrolled. Demographic characteristics of patients such as age, gender, place and cause of burn, and morality rate were evaluated. LA50 was measured using Probit analysis. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 4.4±3.4 years. The mortality rate in burn patients was 8.7% and LA50 of total body surface area (TBSA%) ranged from 40.1% in 2012 to 68.3% in 2016. Although the number of male burn patients (65%) was more than females (35%), the mortality rate in females was more than males (11.4% vs. 7.2%). Scald and flame were the most common causes of burn. CONCLUSION: The findings in our burn center comparing burn patients to developed countries showed that LA50 and survival rate were lower denoting to an urgent necessity to promote current policies in burn care and prevention and to decrease the mortality rate too.

Menopause uncertainty: the impact of two educational interventions among women during menopausal transition and beyond.

INTRODUCTION: Menopause is a natural part of women's lives, which is associated with physical and mental changes and can lead to uncertainty and consequent undesirable effects in the lives of menopausal women. The present study was conducted to compare the impact of multimedia and booklet educational methods on the uncertainty about menopause during this transition period. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a cluster randomized trial 68 women aged 45-55 years were randomly allocated into two groups: multimedia and booklet. Data were collected using knowledge and uncertainty questionnaires about menopause in three stages, i.e. before intervention, immediately after intervention (two weeks later), and one month later. Repeated-measures analysis of variance (rANOVA) was used to compare knowledge and uncertainty scores between two groups for the duration of the study. Data were analysed using SPSS software and p values < 0.05 were considered as statistically significant. RESULTS: The results of the study indicated a high level of uncertainty in both groups before the implementation of the educational program. There was no significant difference between groups in terms of knowledge and uncertainty about menopause over time (p > 0.05). However, we found a significant increase in knowledge and a significant decrease in uncertainty scores in both groups (p < 0.001) after the interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the findings of this study did not show a significant difference between the effect of multimedia and booklet educational methods in postmenopausal women, the high level of uncertainty of women before intervention and its significant reduction after the implementation of the educational programs indicated the importance of education throughout this period.

Prenatal Exposure to Macrolides and Risk of Congenital Malformations: A Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Macrolides are widely used during pregnancy; however, their fetal safety remains uncertain. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the relation between prenatal exposure to macrolides and occurrence of congenital malformations. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and other databases until June 12, 2019. We assessed the quality of the studies and checked for heterogeneity and publication bias. We performed three different analyses and compared the effect of macrolides with each of the following unexposed populations: Group 1: babies unexposed to any medicine before birth, Group 2: babies exposed to non-macrolide antibiotics/non-teratogens, and Group 3: mixed population of the first and second comparators. RESULTS: A weak association between macrolides and congenital malformation of any type was observed when macrolides were compared with the mixed population (ORgroup 3 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.10]). Subgroup analysis showed that this weak association is restricted to fetus exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]) and to cohort studies (OR 1.07 [95% CI 1.02-1.13]). Digestive system malformations were found to be slightly associated with prenatal exposure to macrolides (ORgroup 3 1.14 [95% CI 1.02-1.26]). The musculoskeletal system was also found to be potentially affected (ORgroup 2 1.21 [95% CI 1.08-1.35] and ORgroup 3 1.15 [95% CI 1.05-1.26]). European studies showed a slightly stronger association than American studies in these two comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests a weak association between prenatal use of macrolides and congenital malformations, limited to exposure in early pregnancy, and musculoskeletal and digestive systems. In addition to studies with a larger control of confounding, risk-benefit research is needed to determine the usefulness of macrolides during pregnancy.

History of allergic rhinitis and risk of asthma; a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Allergic rhinitis has been suspected to be a risk factor for asthma in several studies but this association is not firmly established. The objective of this study was to synthesize the evidence of the association between allergic rhinitis and the risk of asthma through a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We performed a search in Medline, Scopus, ISI Proceedings databases and other databases from inception until February 2019, followed by manual search to identify potentially relevant case-control and cohort studies that reported relative risk estimates and confidence intervals of the association between allergic rhinitis and asthma. Cross-sectional studies were excluded. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using fixed and random effects models and quality of studies was assessed through a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. RESULTS: Twenty-nine eligible studies, 22 cohort and 7 case-control studies, with a total of 274489 subjects, were included in the meta-analysis. The results show that history of allergic rhinitis is significantly associated with the occurrence of asthma (OR = 3.82; 95% CI: 2.92-4.99). European studies showed a stronger association (OR = 4.35; (95% CI: 3.12-6.06) than non-European studies (OR = 2.75; 95% CI: 2.16-3.50), and case-control studies showed a stronger association (OR = 4.71; 95% CI: 3.58-6.17) than cohort studies (OR = 3.42; 95% CI: 2.60-4.50). CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis shows that allergic rhinitis is strongly associated with asthma. Further prospective studies on the effect of treatment of allergic rhinitis on the development of asthma are needed. Relief of airway allergic manifestations may need dual control of allergic rhinitis and asthma. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO database with registration number CRD42017055156.

The Global and Regional Survival Rate of Women With Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in the world. The aim of this study was to measure the global and regional survival rates of women with breast cancer. We searched Medline/PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar to identify cohort studies on the survival rate of women with primary invasive breast cancer until the end of June 2017. We used random effect models to estimate the pooled 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates. Subgroup analysis and meta-regression models were used to investigate the potential sources of heterogeneity. One hundred twenty-six studies were included in the meta-analysis. Between-study heterogeneities in the 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates were significantly high (all I2s > 50%; P = .001). The global 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year pooled survival rates in women with breast cancer were 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-0.94), 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71-0.79), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.75), and 0.61% (95% CI, 0.54-0.67), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that survival rates varied in different World Health Organization regions, age and stage at diagnosis, year of the studies, and degree of development of countries. Meta-regression indicated that year of the study (ß = 0.07; P = .002) and development of country (ß = -0.1; P = .0001) were potential sources of heterogeneity. The survival rate was improved in recent decades; however, it is lower in developing regions than developed ones.

The relation between stressful life events and breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

PURPOSE: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women with high rate of mortality. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the relation between stressful life events and breast cancer. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Google scholar databases from their inception until June 2018. The keywords and phrases we used in the search were (life events AND stress AND breast cancer OR neoplasm) to identify potentially relevant cohort studies that reported relative risk estimates and confidence intervals of this association. Pooled Risk ratio and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random effects model. RESULTS: Out of 168 potentially relevant publications, 11 documents met the inclusion criteria. The results showed that history of stressful life events slightly increases the risk of breast cancer [pooled Risk Ratio: 1.11 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.19)]. CONCLUSIONS: History of stressful life events could be associated with a moderate increase in the risk of breast cancer. We advise that receiving psychological and counseling services after occurrence of stressful life events of women should be taken seriously.

Quality of Life in Patients with Non-melanoma Skin Cancer: Implications for Healthcare Education Services and Supports.

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most prevalent type of cancer among Caucasian populations worldwide. The purpose of this work was to measure quality of life (QOL) of the patients with diagnosis of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) who were referred to our cancer clinic. During 1 year, 95 patients were selected and asked to complete Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) questionnaires. Ninety-five patients with NMSC (74 men and 21 women) with mean age of 64.6 ± 12.5 participated in this cross-sectional study. From 95 patients, 75 had BCC, 15 had SCC, and 5 patients had both SCC and BCC. The total DLQI scores of the all participants were between 0 and 16; the mean was 4.1 ± 4.25 and median was 2. Variables which were associated with impaired QOL were marital status (P = 0.03) and tumor location (P = 0.02). By using general dermatology QOL questionnaire, it had been demonstrated that patients with NMSC faced with minimal QOL impairment; also, this handicap was more pronounced in younger patients and singles and patients with tumors located in exposed areas. Our findings demonstrated a need to educate our patients to improve patients' knowledge about different aspects of disease.

Serum and tissue angiotensin-converting enzyme in patients with alopecia areata.

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata is an immune-dependent disorder characterized by the interaction of T-lymphocytes with follicular antigens. Recent studies have shown the existence of a local renin-angiotensin system in the skin, where angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) plays a role in autoimmunity and inflammation. AIM: The objective of this study was to evaluate serum and tissue ACE activity in patients with alopecia areata. METHODS: This case-control study was conducted on patients with alopecia areata and healthy controls. Serum and tissue ACE activity were assessed and compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Twenty-five alopecia areata patients (60% male, mean age 32.1 ± 9.9 years) and 24 controls (50% male, mean age 37.4 ± 8.8 years) were included. Mean serum ACE activity was 52.1 ± 9 U/L in cases and 55.3 ± 14.7 U/L in controls (P = 0.37). Tissue ACE activity was significantly lower in cases in all parts of the skin i.e. epidermis (P = 0.016), follicular epithelium (P = 0.004), and endothelium (P = 0.037). Among cases, serum ACE activity was significantly higher in patients with more severe disease (P = 0.030), nonpatchy alopecia areata (alopecia universalis; ophiasis, patchy and ophiasis, diffuse) (P = 0.029), and with nail involvement (P = 0.027). LIMITATIONS: The sample size was too small to draw definite conclusions. Further, most of the patients had only mild or moderate alopecia areata. CONCLUSION: Unlike in some other inflammatory diseases, the tissue level of ACE seems to be significantly lower in alopecia areata compared to normal controls. Serum ACE was significantly higher in patients with more severe disease.

Skin Cancer Awareness and Sun Protection Behavior Before and Following Treatment Among Skin Cancer-Treated Patients.

There is little known about illness perception in patients with skin tumors. We conducted this study to investigate Iranian patients' understanding of skin tumors, and to evaluate their sun-protective behavior changes after treatment of skin cancer. Patients with a skin biopsy of basal cell carcinoma were asked to complete questionnaires. A total of 110 patients were enrolled in the study. Patients were mostly referred to our tumor clinic from rural areas. At the skin cancer perception investigation, 63% of patients did not consider their disease as a long-lasting situation. Besides, 45.4% of patients consider their illness as a serious condition which significantly affecting their lives. Our patients had a strong belief in treatment control (81%) and 81% of them also described worries about their skin cancer. The leading causes of skin cancer as assumed by patients were: history of skin cancer (37.4%), poor medical care in the past (36.4%), extreme sun exposure (31.5%), and lack of sun protection (27.5%). In regard to sun-protective behavior after treatment of skin cancer, 55.4% of patients showed no changes or even negative change in their sun-protective behavior, But 44.5% of the patients changed their sun-protective behavior in a positive way which was statically significant (P ≤ 0.001). Our study demonstrates how our patients with skin cancer perceive their disease and we need to educate our patients, considering diseases' aspects, causes and symptoms. This is of great value as dermatologists should be aware of patients' perceptions of their disease in order to improve patients' knowledge through educating more about different aspects of disease.

Quality of life in mild and severe alopecia areata patients.

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata is a relapsing hair disorder characterized by a sudden hairloss and has a considerable impact on patient's quality of life. The goal of this study was to determine quality of life among patients with mild and severe forms of alopecia areata and compare the two groups. METHODS: During one year, 176 patients (96 mild, 80 severe) were selected and asked to complete Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) questionnaires. RESULTS: Our study revealed that the severe group was predominantly female and had higher amount of unemployment, more prolonged disease duration, unstable disease course and facial involvement. The mean DLQI scores in the severe and mild groups were 10.7 ± 7.5 and 5.4 ± 6.8, respectively which was significantly different and severe group had higher DLQI scores and more quality of life impairment. As well, there was a significant association between total DLQI scores and acute stress during last 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that alopecia areata considerably impacts quality of life and this is more pronounced in patients with severe disease and those who had acute stress recently.

Forecasting zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis using meteorological factors in eastern Fars province, Iran: a SARIMA analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To predict the occurrence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) and evaluate the effect of climatic variables on disease incidence in the east of Fars province, Iran using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. METHODS: The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for ZCL incidence from 2004 to 2015. Then the model was used to predict the number of ZCL cases for the year 2016. Finally, we assessed the relation of meteorological variables (rainfall, rainy days, temperature, hours of sunshine and relative humidity) with ZCL incidence. RESULTS: SARIMA(2,0,0) (2,1,0)12 was the preferred model for predicting ZCL incidence in the east of Fars province (validation Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.27). It showed that ZCL incidence in a given month can be estimated by the number of cases occurring 1 and 2 months, as well as 12 and 24 months earlier. The predictive power of SARIMA models was improved by the inclusion of rainfall at a lag of 2 months (ß = -0.02), rainy days at a lag of 2 months (ß = -0.09) and relative humidity at a lag of 8 months (ß = 0.13) as external regressors (P-values < 0.05). The latter was the best climatic variable for predicting ZCL cases (validation RMSE = 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: Time series models can be useful tools to predict the trend of ZCL in Fars province, Iran; thus, they can be used in the planning of public health programmes. Introducing meteorological variables into the models may improve their precision.

Self-Burns in Fars Province, Southern Iran.

BACKGROUND: The alarming incidence of self- burning provoked to set up a multidisciplinary preventive program to decrease the incidence and complications of this harmful issue. This study investigated the incidence and the preventive measures in self-burn in Fars Province, southern Iran. METHODS: This study was a longitudinal prospective design on trend of self-inflicted burn injuries in Fars province after setting up a regional multidisciplinary preventive plan (2009-2012). RESULTS: From 18862 admitted patients, 388 (2%) committed self-burning. While the incidence showed a constant decrease in proportion of suicidal cases among all admitted patients (2.5% to 1.6%). The mean age of self-burning victims ranged from 28.3±10.8 to 30.3±11.7 years. The female victims comprised 67.4% of all suicidal burn patients (Female to male ratio: 2.18). The leading causes of suicide commitment were familial conflicts (75.6%) and psychological problems (16.7%). CONCLUSION: It is crucial to continue the regional preventive programs and pave the way to set up national, and even international collaborations to alleviate relevant financial, social, cultural and infrastructural difficulties in order to have lower incidence for this dramatic issue.

Validity of trichoscopy in the diagnosis of primary cicatricial alopecias.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the validity of dermatoscopy in primary cicatricial alopecias (PCAs) and its subtypes, including lichen planopilaris and discoid lupus erythematosus. Trichoscopic features of PCAs, their prevalence, and validity were evaluated in this study. METHODS: One hundred patients with PCA underwent dermatoscopy. Biopsy specimens were obtained after the site was marked with a dermatoscope. The control group comprised 100 patients with non-cicatricial alopecia and 100 normal individuals. Finally, the prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity of trichoscopic features were evaluated using SPSS and Stata software. RESULTS: The absence of follicular opening, perifollicular scale, and presence of one scarring pattern or white patch were sensitive and specific patterns in the trichoscopy of PCAs. The presence of tortuous branching vessels and follicular keratotic plugging was 100% specific for a diagnosis of discoid lupus erythematosus. CONCLUSIONS: Some trichoscopic features can help a dermatologist to differentiate between non-cicatricial alopecia and PCA. Moreover, a group of dermatoscopic features can be helpful in the diagnosis of PCA subtypes.