Equity considerations for the implementation of health insurance benefit package in Ethiopia: result of expert Delphi exercise.

BACKGROUND: Efficiency, equity and financial risk protection are key health systems objectives. Equitable distribution of health care is among the priority strategic initiative of the government of Ethiopia. However, data on the distribution of interventions benefits or on disease burden disaggregated by subpopulations to guide health care priority setting is not available in Ethiopia. METHODS: Aligned with policy documents, we identified the following groups to be the worse off in the Ethiopian context: under-five children, women of reproductive age, the poor, and rural residents. We used the Delphi technique by a panel of 28 experts to assign a score for 253 diseases/conditions over a period of two days, in phases. The expert panel represented different institutes and professional mix. Experts assigned a score 1 to 4; where 4 indicates disease/condition predominantly affecting the poor and rural residents and 1 indicates a condition more prevalent among the wealthy and urban residents. Subsequently, the average equity score was computed for each disease/condition. RESULTS: The average scores ranged from 1.11 (for vitiligo) to 3.79 (for obstetric fistula). We standardized the scores to be bounded between 1 and 2; 1 the lowest equity score and 2 the highest equity score. The scores for each disease/condition were then assigned to their corresponding interventions. We used these equity scores to adjust the CEA values for each of the interventions. To adjust the CEA values for equity, we multiplied the health benefits (the denominator of the cost-effectiveness value) of each intervention by the corresponding equity scores, resulting in equity adjusted CEA values. The equity adjusted CEA was then used to rank the interventions using a league table. CONCLUSIONS: The Delphi method can be useful in generating equity scores for prioritizing health interventions where disaggregated data on the distribution of diseases or access to interventions by subpopulation groups are not available.

Financial hardship associated with catastrophic out-of-pocket spending tied to primary care services in low- and lower-middle-income countries: findings from a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Financial risk protection (FRP) is a key component of universal health coverage (UHC): all individuals must be able to obtain the health services they need without experiencing financial hardship. In many low-income and lower-middle-income countries, however, the health system fails to provide sufficient protection against high out-of-pocket (OOP) spending on health services. In 2018, OOP health spending comprised approximately 40% of current health expenditures in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. METHODS: We model the household risk of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), conditional on having a given disease or condition-defined as OOP health spending that exceeds a threshold percentage (10, 25, or 40%) of annual income-for 29 health services across 13 disease categories (e.g., diarrheal diseases, cardiovascular diseases) in 34 low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Health services were included in the analysis if delivered at the primary care level and part of the Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition "highest priority package." Data were compiled from several publicly available sources, including national health accounts, household surveys, and the published literature. A risk of CHE, conditional on having disease, was modeled as depending on usage, captured through utilization indicators; affordability, captured via the level of public financing and OOP health service unit costs; and income. RESULTS: Across all countries, diseases, and health services, the risk of CHE (conditional on having a disease) would be concentrated among poorer quintiles (6.8% risk in quintile 1 vs. 1.3% in quintile 5 using a 10% CHE threshold). The risk of CHE would be higher for a few disease areas, including cardiovascular disease and mental/behavioral disorders (7.8% and 9.8% using a 10% CHE threshold), while lower risks of CHE were observed for lower cost services. CONCLUSIONS: Insufficient FRP stands as a major barrier to achieving UHC, and risk of CHE is a major problem for health systems in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Beyond its threat to the financial stability of households, CHE may also lead to worse health outcomes, especially among the poorest for whom both ill health and financial risk are most severe. Modeling the risk of CHE associated with specific disease areas and services can help policymakers set progressive health sector priorities. Decision-makers could explicitly include FRP as a criterion for consideration when assessing the health interventions for inclusion in national essential benefit packages.

Cost of childhood cancer treatment in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Despite the recent interest in expanding pediatric oncology units in Ethiopia, reflected in the National Childhood and Adolescent Cancer Control Plan (NCACCP), little is known about the cost of running a pediatric oncology unit and treating childhood cancers. METHODS: We collected historical cost data and quantity of services provided for the pediatric oncology unit and all other departments in Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH) from 8 July 2018 to 7 July 2019, using a provider perspective and mixed (top-down and bottom-up) costing approaches. Direct costs (human resources, drugs, supplies, medical equipment) of the pediatric oncology unit, costs at other relevant clinical departments, and overhead cost share are summed up to estimate the total annual cost of running the unit. Further, unit costs were estimated at specific childhood cancer levels. RESULTS: The estimated annual total cost of running a pediatric oncology unit was USD 776,060 (equivalent to USD 577 per treated child). The cost of running a pediatric oncology unit per treated child ranged from USD 469 to USD 1,085, on the scenario-based sensitivity analysis. Drugs and supplies, and human resources accounted for 33% and 27% of the total cost, respectively. Outpatient department and inpatient department shared 37% and 63% of the cost, respectively. For the pediatric oncology unit, the cost per OPD visit, cost per bed day, and cost per episode of hospital admission were USD 36.9, 39.9, and 373.3, respectively. The annual cost per treated child ranged from USD 322 to USD 1,313 for the specific childhood cancers. CONCLUSION: Running a pediatric oncology unit in Ethiopia is likely to be affordable. Further analysis of cost effectiveness, equity, and financial risk protection impacts of investing in childhood cancer programs could better inform the prioritization of childhood cancer control interventions in the Ethiopia Essential Health Service Package.

Out-of-pocket expenditures and financial risks associated with treatment of vaccine-preventable diseases in Ethiopia: A cross-sectional costing analysis.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) remain major causes of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Universal access to vaccination, besides improved health outcomes, would substantially reduce VPD-related out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures and associated financial risks. This paper aims to estimate the extent of OOP expenditures and the magnitude of the associated catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) for selected VPDs in Ethiopia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cross-sectional costing analysis, from the household (patient) perspective, of care-seeking for VPDs in children aged under 5 years for pneumonia, diarrhea, measles, and pertussis, and in children aged under 15 years for meningitis. Data on OOP direct medical and nonmedical expenditures (2021 USD) and household consumption expenditures were collected from 995 households (1 child per household) in 54 health facilities nationwide between May 1 and July 31, 2021. We used descriptive statistics to measure the main outcomes: magnitude of OOP expenditures, along with the associated CHE within households. Drivers of CHE were assessed using a logistic regression model. The mean OOP expenditures per disease episode for outpatient care for diarrhea, pneumonia, pertussis, and measles were $5·6 (95% confidence interval (CI): $4·3, 6·8), $7·8 ($5·3, 10·3), $9·0 ($6·4, 11·6), and $7·4 ($3·0, 11·9), respectively. The mean OOP expenditures were higher for inpatient care, ranging from $40·6 (95% CI: $12·9, 68·3) for severe measles to $101·7 ($88·5, 114·8) for meningitis. Direct medical expenditures, particularly drug and supply expenses, were the major cost drivers. Among those who sought inpatient care (345 households), about 13·3% suffered CHE, at a 10% threshold of annual consumption expenditures. The type of facility visited, receiving inpatient care, and wealth were significant predictors of CHE (p-value < 0·001) while adjusting for area of residence (urban/rural), diagnosis, age of respondent, and household family size. Limitations include inadequate number of measles and pertussis cases. CONCLUSIONS: The OOP expenditures induced by VPDs are substantial in Ethiopia and disproportionately impact those with low income and those requiring inpatient care. Expanding equitable access to vaccines cannot be overemphasized, for both health and economic reasons. Such realization requires the government's commitment toward increasing and sustaining vaccine financing in Ethiopia.

Cost-effectiveness of running a paediatric oncology unit in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of running a paediatric oncology unit in Ethiopia to inform the revision of the Ethiopia Essential Health Service Package (EEHSP), which ranks the treatment of childhood cancers at a low and medium priority. METHODS: We built a decision analytical model-a decision tree-to estimate the cost-effectiveness of running a paediatric oncology unit compared with a do-nothing scenario (no paediatric oncology care) from a healthcare provider perspective. We used the recently (2018-2019) conducted costing estimate for running the paediatric oncology unit at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH) and employed a mixed costing approach (top-down and bottom-up). We used data on health outcomes from other studies in similar settings to estimate the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted of running a paediatric oncology unit compared with a do-nothing scenario over a lifetime horizon. Both costs and effects were discounted (3%) to the present value. The primary outcome was incremental cost in US dollars (USDs) per DALY averted, and we used a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 50% of the Ethiopian gross domestic product per capita (USD 477 in 2019). Uncertainty was tested using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The incremental cost and DALYs averted per child treated in the paediatric oncology unit at TASH were USD 876 and 2.4, respectively, compared with no paediatric oncology care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of running a paediatric oncology unit was USD 361 per DALY averted, and it was cost-effective in 90% of 100 000 Monte Carlo iterations at a USD 477 WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS: The provision of paediatric cancer services using a specialised oncology unit is most likely cost-effective in Ethiopia, at least for easily treatable cancer types in centres with minimal to moderate capability. We recommend reassessing the priority-level decision of childhood cancer treatment in the current EEHSP.

Equitable Prioritization of Health Interventions by Incorporating Financial Risk Protection Weights Into Economic Evaluations.

OBJECTIVES: Financial risk protection (FRP), or the prevention of medical impoverishment, is a major objective of health systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where the extent of out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures can be substantial. We sought to develop a method that allows decision makers to explicitly integrate FRP outcomes into their priority-setting activities. METHODS: We used literature review to identify 31 interventions in low- and middle-income countries, each of which provided measures of health outcomes, costs, OOP health expenditures averted, and FRP (proxied by OOP health expenditures averted as a percentage of income), all disaggregated by income quintile. We developed weights drawn from the Z-score of each quintile-intervention pair based on the distribution of FRP of all quintile-intervention pairs. We next ranked the interventions by unweighted and weighted health outcomes for each income quintile. We also evaluated how pro-poor they were by, first, ordering the interventions by cost-effectiveness for each quintile and, next, calculating the proportion of interventions each income quintile would be targeted for a given random budget. A ranking was said to be pro-poor if each quintile received the same or higher proportion of interventions than richer quintiles. RESULTS: Using FRP weights produced a more pro-poor priority setting than unweighted outcomes. Most of the reordering produced by the inclusion of FRP weights occurred in interventions of moderate cost-effectiveness, suggesting that these weights would be most useful as a way of distinguishing moderately cost-effective interventions with relatively high potential FRP. CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary method of integrating FRP into priority-setting would likely be most suitable to deciding between health interventions with intermediate cost-effectiveness.

The magnitude and perceived reasons for childhood cancer treatment abandonment in Ethiopia: from health care providers' perspective.

BACKGROUND: Treatment abandonment is one of major reasons for childhood cancer treatment failure and low survival rate in low- and middle-income countries. Ethiopia plans to reduce abandonment rate by 60% (2019-2023), but baseline data and information about the contextual risk factors that influence treatment abandonment are scarce. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted from September 5 to 22, 2021, on the three major pediatric oncology centers in Ethiopia. Data on the incidence and reasons for treatment abandonment were obtained from healthcare professionals. We were unable to obtain data about the patients' or guardians' perspective because the information available in the cancer registry was incomplete to contact adequate number of respondents. We used a validated, semi-structured questionnaire developed by the International Society of Pediatric Oncology Abandonment Technical Working Group. We included all (N = 38) health care professionals (physicians, nurses, and social workers) working at these centers who had more than one year of experience in childhood cancer service provision (a universal sampling and 100% response rate). RESULTS: The perceived mean abandonment rate in Ethiopia is 34% (SE 2.5%). The risk of treatment abandonment is dependent on the type of cancer (high for bone sarcoma and brain tumor), the phase of treatment and treatment outcome. The highest risk is during maintenance and treatment failure or relapse for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and during pre- or post-surgical phase for Wilms tumor and bone sarcoma. The major influencing risk factors in Ethiopia includes high cost of care, low economic status, long travel time to treatment centers, long waiting time, belief in the incurability of cancer and poor public awareness about childhood cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The perceived abandonment rate in Ethiopia is high, and the risk of abandonment varies according to the type of cancer, phase of treatment or treatment outcome. Therefore, mitigation strategies to reduce the abandonment rate should include identifying specific risk factors and prioritizing strategies based on their level of influence, effectiveness, feasibility, and affordability.

Financial risk of road traffic trauma care in public and private hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A cross-sectional observational study.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic injuries are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality and cause substantial economic loss to households in Ethiopia. This study estimates the financial risks of seeking trauma care due to road traffic injuries in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional survey on out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures related to trauma care in three public and one private hospital in Addis Ababa from December 2018 to February 2019. Direct medical and non-medical costs (2018 USD) were collected from 452 trauma cases. Catastrophic health expenditures were defined as OOP health expenditures of 10% or more of total household expenditures. Additionally, we investigated the impoverishment effect of OOP expenditures using the international poverty line of $1.90 per day per person (adjusted for purchasing power parity). RESULTS: Trauma care seeking after road traffic injuries generate catastrophic health expenditures for 67% of households and push 24% of households below the international poverty line. On average, the medical OOP expenditures per patient seeking care were $256 for outpatient visits and $690 for inpatient visits per road traffic injury. Patients paid more for trauma care in private hospitals, and OOP expenditures were six times higher in private than in public hospitals. Transport to facilities and caregiver costs were the two major cost drivers, amounting to $96 and $68 per patient, respectively. CONCLUSION: Seeking trauma care after a road traffic injury poses a substantial financial threat to Ethiopian households due to lack of strong financial risk protection mechanisms. Ethiopia's government should enact multisectoral interventions for increasing the prevention of road traffic injuries and implement universal public finance of trauma care.

Toward health system strengthening in low- and middle-income countries: insights from mathematical modeling of drug supply chains.

BACKGROUND: Global health priority setting increasingly focuses on understanding the functioning of health systems and on how they can be strengthened. Beyond vertical programs, health systems research should examine system-wide delivery platforms (e.g. health facilities) and operational elements (e.g. supply chains) as primary units of study and evaluation. METHODS: We use dynamical system methods to develop a simple analytical model for the supply chain of a low-income country's health system. In doing so, we emphasize the dynamic links that integrate the supply chain within other elements of the health system; and we examine how the evolution over time of such connections would affect drug delivery, following the implementation of selected interventions (e.g. enhancing road networks, expanding workforce). We also test feedback loops and forecasts to study the potential impact of setting up a digital system for tracking drug delivery to prevent drug stockout and expiration. RESULTS: Numerical simulations that capture a range of supply chain scenarios demonstrate the impact of different health system strengthening interventions on drug stock levels within health facilities. Our mathematical modeling also points to how implementing a digital drug tracking system could help anticipate and prevent drug stockout and expiration. CONCLUSION: Our mathematical model of drug supply chain delivery represents an important component toward the development of comprehensive quantitative frameworks that aim at describing health systems as complex dynamical systems. Such models can help predict how investments in system-wide interventions, like strengthening drug supply chains in low-income settings, may improve population health outcomes.

The burden of household out-of-pocket health expenditures in Ethiopia: estimates from a nationally representative survey (2015-16).

In Ethiopia, little is known about the extent of out-of-pocket health expenditures and the associated financial hardships at national and regional levels. We estimated the incidence of both catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures using data from the 2015/16 Ethiopian household consumption and expenditure and welfare monitoring surveys. We computed incidence of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) at 10% and 25% thresholds of total household consumption and 40% threshold of household capacity to pay, and impoverishing health expenditures (IHE) using Ethiopia's national poverty line (ETB 7184 per adult per year). Around 2.1% (SE: 0.2, P < 0.001) of households would face CHE with a 10% threshold of total consumption, and 0.9% (SE: 0.1, P < 0.001) of households would encounter IHE, annually in Ethiopia. CHE rates were high in the regions of Afar (5.8%, SE: 1.0, P < 0.001) and Benshangul-Gumuz (4.0%, SE: 0.8, P < 0.001). Oromia (n = 902 000), Amhara (n = 275 000) and Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) (n = 268 000) regions would have the largest numbers of affected households, due to large population size. The IHE rates would also show similar patterns: high rates in Afar (5.0%, SE: 0.96, P < 0.001), Oromia (1.1%, SE: 0.22, P < 0.001) and Benshangul-Gumuz (0.9%, SE: 0.4, P = 0.02); a large number of households would be impoverished in Oromia (n = 356 000) and Amhara (n = 202 000) regions. In summary, a large number of households is facing financial hardship in Ethiopia, particularly in Afar, Benshangul-Gumuz, Oromia, Amhara and SNNP regions and this number would likely increase with greater health services utilization. We recommend regional-level analyses on services coverage to be conducted as some of the estimated low CHE/IHE regional values might be due to low services coverage. Periodic analyses on the financial hardship status of households could also be monitored to infer progress towards universal health coverage.

Financial burden of HIV and TB among patients in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are major global health threats and can result in household financial hardships. Here, we aim to estimate the household economic burden and the incidence of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) incurred by HIV and TB care across income quintiles in Ethiopia. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey. SETTING: 27 health facilities in Afar and Oromia regions for TB, and nationwide household survey for HIV. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1006 and 787 individuals seeking HIV and TB care were enrolled, respectively. OUTCOME MEASURES: The economic burden (ie, direct and indirect cost) of HIV and TB care was estimated. In addition, the CHE incidence and intensity were determined using direct costs exceeding 10% of the household income threshold. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of HIV and TB patient was 40 (10), and 30 (14) years, respectively. The mean (SD) patient cost of HIV was $78 ($170) per year and $115 ($118) per TB episode. Out of the total cost, the direct cost of HIV and TB constituted 69% and 46%, respectively. The mean (SD) indirect cost was $24 ($66) per year for HIV and $63 ($83) per TB episode. The incidence of CHE for HIV was 20%; ranges from 43% in the poorest to 4% in the richest income quintile (p<0.001). Similarly, for TB, the CHE incidence was 40% and ranged between 58% and 20% among the poorest and richest income quintiles, respectively (p<0.001). This figure was higher for drug-resistant TB (62%). CONCLUSIONS: HIV and TB are causes of substantial economic burden and CHE, inequitably, affecting those in the poorest income quintile. Broadening the health policies to encompass interventions that reduce the high cost of HIV and TB care, particularly for the poor, is urgently needed.

Health gains and financial risk protection afforded by public financing of selected malaria interventions in Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a public health burden and a major cause for morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia. Malaria also places a substantial financial burden on families and Ethiopia's national economy. Economic evaluations, with evidence on equity and financial risk protection (FRP), are therefore essential to support decision-making for policymakers to identify best buys amongst possible malaria interventions. The aim of this study is to estimate the expected health and FRP benefits of universal public financing of key malaria interventions in Ethiopia. METHODS: Using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA), the potential health and FRP benefits were estimated, and their distributions across socio-economic groups, of publicly financing a 10% coverage increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and malaria vaccine (hypothetical). RESULTS: ACT, LLIN, IRS, and vaccine would avert 358, 188, 107 and 38 deaths, respectively, each year at a net government cost of $5.7, 16.5, 32.6, and 5.1 million, respectively. The annual cost of implementing IRS would be two times higher than that of the LLIN interventions, and would be the main driver of the total costs. The averted deaths would be mainly concentrated in the poorest two income quintiles. The four interventions would eliminate about $4,627,800 of private health expenditures, and the poorest income quintiles would see the greatest FRP benefits. ACT and LLINs would have the largest impact on malaria-related deaths averted and FRP benefits. CONCLUSIONS: ACT, LLIN, IRS, and vaccine interventions would bring large health and financial benefits to the poorest households in Ethiopia.

Health system modelling research: towards a whole-health-system perspective for identifying good value for money investments in health system strengthening.

Global health research has typically focused on single diseases, and most economic evaluation research to date has analysed technical health interventions to identify 'best buys'. New approaches in the conduct of economic evaluations are needed to help policymakers in choosing what may be good value (ie, greater health, distribution of health, or financial risk protection) for money (ie, per budget expenditure) investments for health system strengthening (HSS) that tend to be programmatic. We posit that these economic evaluations of HSS interventions will require developing new analytic models of health systems which recognise the dynamic connections between the different components of the health system, characterise the type and interlinks of the system's delivery platforms; and acknowledge the multiple constraints both within and outside the health sector which limit the system's capacity to efficiently attain its objectives. We describe priority health system modelling research areas to conduct economic evaluation of HSS interventions and ultimately identify good value for money investments in HSS.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of maternal and neonatal health interventions in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan African countries contributing to the highest number of maternal and neonatal deaths. Coverage of maternal and neonatal health (MNH) interventions has remained very low in Ethiopia. We examined the cost-effectiveness of selected MNH interventions in an Ethiopian setting. We analysed 13 case management and preventive MNH interventions. For all interventions, we used an ingredients-based approach for cost estimation. We employed a static life table model to estimate the health impact of a 20% increase in intervention coverage relative to the baseline. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as the health outcome measure while costs were expressed in 2018 US$. Analyses were based on local epidemiological, demographic and cost data when available. Our finding shows that 12 out of the 13 interventions included in our analysis were highly cost-effective. Interventions targeting newborns such as neonatal resuscitation (institutional), kangaroo mother care and management of newborn sepsis with injectable antibiotics were the most cost-effective interventions with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of US$7, US$8 and US$17 per DALY averted, respectively. Obstetric interventions (induction of labour, active management of third stage of labour, management of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia and maternal sepsis, syphilis treatment and tetanus toxoid during pregnancy) and safe abortion cost between US$100 and US$300 per DALY averted. Calcium supplementation for pre-eclampsia and eclampsia prevention was the least cost-effective, with a cost per DALY of about US$3100. Many of the MNH interventions analysed were highly cost-effective, and this evidence can inform the ongoing essential health services package revision in Ethiopia. Our analysis also shows that calcium supplementation does not appear to be cost-effective in our setting.

Country contextualisation of cost-effectiveness studies: lessons from Ethiopia.

Emerging demographic, epidemiological and health system changes in low-income countries require revisions of national essential health services packages in accordance with standard healthcare priority setting methods. Policy makers are in need of explicit and user-friendly methods to compare impact of multiple interventions. We provide experiences of country contextualisation of WHO-CHOICE methods and models to a country level. Results from three contextualised cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are presented, and we discuss how this evidence can inform priority setting in Ethiopia. Existing models for a range of interventions in obstetric and neonatal care, psychiatric and neurological treatment and prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases are contextualised to the Ethiopian setting. CEAs are defined as contextualised if they include national analysts and use country-specific input for either costs, epidemiology, demography, baseline coverage or effects. Interventions (n=61) are ranked according to incremental cost-effectiveness rates (ICERs), and expected health outcomes (Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted) and budget impacts are presented for each intervention. Dominated interventions (n=30) were excluded. A US$2.8 increase per capita in the annual health budget is needed in Ethiopia (currently at US$28 per capita) for increasing coverage by 20%-75% for all the 22 interventions with positive net health benefits. This investment is expected to give a net benefit at around 0.5 million DALYs averted in return in total, with a willingness to pay threshold at US$2000 per DALY averted. In particular, three interventions, neonatal resuscitation, kangaroo mother care and antibiotics for newborn sepsis, stand out as best buys in an Ethiopian setting. Our method of contextualised CEAs provides important information for policy makers. Rank ordering of interventions by ICERs, together with presentations of expected budget impact and net health benefits, is a clear and policy friendly illustration of possible efficient stepwise pathways towards universal health coverage.

Out-of-pocket expenditures for prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease in general and specialised cardiac hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease poses a great financial risk on households in countries without universal health coverage like Ethiopia. This paper aims to estimate the magnitude and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure and factors associated with catastrophic health expenditure for prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease in general and specialised cardiac hospitals in Addis Ababa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cross-sectional cohort study among individuals who sought cardiovascular disease care in selected hospitals in Addis Ababa during February to March 2015 (n=589, response rate 94%). Out-of-pocket payments on direct medical costs and direct non-medical costs were accounted for. Descriptive statistics was used to estimate the magnitude and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure within households, while logistic regression models were used to assess the factors associated with it.About 27% (26 .7;95% CI 23.1 to 30.6) of the households experienced catastrophic health expenditure, defined as annual out-of-pocket payments above 10% of a household's annual income. Family support was the the most common coping mechanism. Low income, residence outside Addis Ababa and hospitalisation increased the likelihood of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure. The bottom income quintile was about 60 times more likely to suffer catastrophic health expenditure compared with the top quintile (adjusted OR=58.6 (16.5-208.0), p value=0.00). Of those that experienced catastrophic health expenditure, the poorest and richest quintiles spent on average 34% and 15% of households' annual income, respectively. Drug costs constitute about 50% of the outpatient care cost. CONCLUSIONS: Seeking prevention and treatment services for cardiovascular disease in Addis Ababa poses substantial financial burden on households, affecting the poorest and those who reside outside Addis Ababa more. Economic and geographical inequalities should also be considered when setting priorities for expanding coverage of these services. Expanded coverage has to go hand-in-hand with implementation of sound prepayment and risk pooling arrangements to ensure financial risk protection to the most needy.

Prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease in Ethiopia: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The coverage of prevention and treatment strategies for ischemic heart disease and stroke is very low in Ethiopia. In view of Ethiopia's meager healthcare budget, it is important to identify the most cost-effective interventions for further scale-up. This paper's objective is to assess cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in an Ethiopian setting. METHODS: Fifteen single interventions and sixteen intervention packages were assessed from a healthcare provider perspective. The World Health Organization's Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective model for cardiovascular disease was updated with available country-specific inputs, including demography, mortality and price of traded and non-traded goods. Costs and health benefits were discounted at 3 % per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are reported in US$ per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess robustness of our results. RESULTS: Combination drug treatment for individuals having >35 % absolute risk of a CVD event in the next 10 years is the most cost-effective intervention. This intervention costs US$67 per DALY averted and about US$7 million annually. Treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (costing US$1000-US$7530 per DALY averted) and secondary prevention of IHD and stroke (costing US$1060-US$10,340 per DALY averted) become more efficient when delivered in integrated packages. At an annual willingness-to-pay (WTP) level of about US$3 million, a package consisting of aspirin, streptokinase, ACE-inhibitor and beta-blocker for AMI has the highest probability of being most cost-effective, whereas as WTP increases to > US$7 million, combination drug treatment to individuals having >35 % absolute risk stands out as the most cost-effective strategy. Cost-effectiveness ratios were relatively more sensitive to halving the effectiveness estimates as compared with doubling the price of drugs and laboratory tests. CONCLUSIONS: In Ethiopia, the escalating burden of CVD and its risk factors warrants timely action. We have demonstrated that selected CVD intervention packages could be scaled up at a modest budget increase. The level of willingness-to-pay has important implications for interventions' probability of being cost-effective. The study provides valuable evidence for setting priorities in an essential healthcare package for CVD in Ethiopia.