Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management.

Adaptive management (AM) is widely promoted to improve management of natural resources, yet its implementation is challenging. We show that obstacles to the implementation of AM are related not only to the AM process per se but also to external factors such as ecosystem properties and governance systems. To overcome obstacles, there is a need to build capacities within the AM process by ensuring adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. Additionally, building capacities in the legal and institutional frames can enable the necessary flexibility in the governance system. Furthermore, in systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities may be even more critical as more flexibility will be needed to cope with increased uncertainty and changed environmental conditions.

Population control by means of organised hunting effort: Experiences from a voluntary goose hunting arrangement.

Implementing management objectives may be challenging when decisions are made at different scales than where they are supposed to be carried out. In this study we present a situation where local goose hunting arrangements respond to objectives in an international management plan for pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) and a local wish to reduce goose numbers as means to reduce grazing damage on farmland. A unique ten-year dataset provides an evaluation of the efficiency of voluntary actions at a local scale for implementing a policy of population control of geese, and general lessons are drawn for collaboration and co-production of knowledge for adaptive management. The study demonstrates how both the hunters and geese adapt in a situation where increasing the harvest of geese is the main objective. Introducing hunting-free days and safe foraging areas significantly increased goose numbers in the study area, with a corresponding increase in hunting success in terms of number of harvested geese. The geese's behavioural response to hunting also triggered the hunters to adapt accordingly by optimal timing and placement in the landscape. Based on the results of the present study we suggest a framework for local implementation of management actions. Bringing end-users on board, facilitates processes and strengthens the achievements, as they represent the actors where implementation occurs. Specifically, our findings demonstrate how optimal goose hunting can be practiced by the use of an adaptive framework with active stakeholder participation.

Springtime grazing by Arctic-breeding geese reduces first- and second-harvest yields on sub-Arctic agricultural grasslands.

Large population increases of Arctic-breeding waterfowls over recent decades have intensified the conflict with agricultural interests in both Eurasia and North America. In the spring-staging region Vesterålen in sub-Arctic Norway, sheep, dairy and meat farmers have reported reduced agricultural grassland yields due to pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus and barnacle geese Branta leucopsis that rest and forage in the region for 3-4 weeks in spring on their way to their breeding grounds on Svalbard. Here, we report from an experimental exclosure design where goose access to plots at three grassland fields in Vesterålen was prevented. The experiment was conducted over 3 years between 2012 and 2014. Goose abundance varied greatly between fields and years as a function of variable spring weather and forage quantity, facilitating evaluation of longer-term impacts under contrasting grazing intensities. First and second harvest yields across fields and years were 20% and 19% higher in exclosures than in plots open for grazing, while total yields (sum of first and second harvests) were on average 27% higher. Within-year effects on harvest yields varied substantially, primarily due to highly contrasting sward development during the spring-staging periods. Cool weather (2012) led to slow sward development and little or no effects on harvest yields, warmer weather (2013) resulted in generally large effects, while variable weather (2014) led to treatment effects varying across fields, with one field experiencing 61% higher yields in exclosures while there were no significant impacts on first-harvest yields at the two other fields. Goose grazing did not increase dry weight-based proportions of weeds. Overall, the farmers' reports on yield-loss due to goose grazing were confirmed, although impacts varied substantially between years. A novel finding is that second-harvest yields were also reduced. For the most affected farmers, it is unlikely that the current subsidy scheme is sufficient to cover all the their losses.

Seroprevalence of avian influenza in Baltic common eiders (Somateria mollissima) and pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus).

Blood plasma was collected during 2016-2018 from healthy incubating eiders (Somateria molissima, n = 183) in three Danish colonies, and healthy migrating pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus, n = 427) at their spring roost in Central Norway (Svalbard breeding population) and their novel flyway through the Finnish Baltic Sea (Russian breeding population). These species and flyways altogether represent terrestrial, brackish and marine ecosystems spanning from the Western to the Eastern and Northern part of the Baltic Sea. Plasma of these species was analysed for seroprevalence of specific avian influenza A (AI) antibodies to obtain information on circulating AI serotypes and exposure. Overall, antibody prevalence was 55% for the eiders and 47% for the pink-footed geese. Of AI-antibody seropositive birds, 12% (22/183) of the eiders and 3% (12/427) of the pink-footed geese had been exposed to AI of the potentially zoonotic serotypes H5 and/or H7 virus. AI seropositive samples selected at random (n = 33) showed a low frequency of serotypes H1, H6 and H9. Future projects should aim at sampling and isolating AI virus to characterize dominant serotypes and virus strains (PCR). This will increase our understanding of how AI exposure may affect health, breeding and population viability of Baltic common eiders and pink-footed geese as well as the potential spill-over to humans (zoonotic potential).

Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience.

All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250 km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54 days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25 years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.

Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe.

The management of conflicts between wildlife conservation and agricultural practices often involves the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the cost of wildlife impacts on crops. Vital to the success of these strategies is the perception that changes in management efforts are synchronized relative to changes in impact levels, yet this expectation is never evaluated. We assess the level of synchrony between time series of population counts and management effort in the context of conflicts between agriculture and five populations of large grazing birds in northern Europe. We reveal inconsistent patterns of synchrony and asynchrony between changes in population counts and impact management effort relating to population harvesting, monetary payments, or scaring practices. This variation is likely due to differing management aims, the existence of lags between management decisions and population monitoring, and the inconsistent use of predictive models across case studies. Overall, our findings highlight the need for more adaptive and timely responses of management to changes in target species numbers so as not to unexpectedly increase social conflicts and jeopardize the status of wildlife populations.

Potential Effect of Migration Strategy on Pollutant Occurrence in Eggs of Arctic Breeding Barnacle Geese ( Branta leucopsis).

Arctic-breeding geese acquire resources for egg production from overwintering grounds, spring stopover sites and breeding grounds, where pollutant exposure may differ. We investigated the effect of migration strategy on pollutant occurrence of lipophilic polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and protein-associated poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and mercury (Hg) in eggs of herbivorous barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis) from an island colony on Svalbard. Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in eggs and vegetation collected along the migration route were similar. Pollutant concentrations in eggs were low, reflecting their terrestrial diet (∑PCB = 1.23 ± 0.80 ng/g ww; ∑PFAS = 1.21 ± 2.97 ng/g ww; Hg = 20.17 ± 7.52 ng/g dw). PCB concentrations in eggs increased with later hatch date, independent of lipid content which also increased over time. Some females may remobilize and transfer more PCBs to their eggs, by delaying migration several weeks, relying on more polluted and stored resources, or being in poor body condition when arriving at the breeding grounds. PFAS and Hg occurrence in eggs did not change throughout the breeding season, suggesting migration has a greater effect on lipophilic pollutants. Pollutant exposure during offspring production in arctic-breeding migrants may result in different profiles, with effects becoming more apparent with increasing trophic levels.

Combining modelling tools to evaluate a goose management scheme.

Many goose species feed on agricultural land, and with growing goose numbers, conflicts with agriculture are increasing. One possible solution is to designate refuge areas where farmers are paid to leave geese undisturbed. Here, we present a generic modelling tool that can be used to designate the best locations for refuges and to gauge the area needed to accommodate the geese. With a species distribution model, locations are ranked according to goose suitability. The size of the area to be designated as refuge can be chosen by including more or less suitable locations. A resource depletion model is then used to estimate whether enough resources are available within the designated refuge to accommodate all geese, taking into account the dynamics of food resources, including depletion by geese. We illustrate this with the management scheme for pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus implemented in Norway. Here, all geese can be accommodated, but damage levels appear to depend on weather, land use and refuge size.

Implementation of the first adaptive management plan for a European migratory waterbird population: The case of the Svalbard pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus.

An International Species Management Plan for the Svalbard population of the pink-footed goose was adopted under the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds in 2012, the first case of adaptive management of a migratory waterbird population in Europe. An international working group (including statutory agencies, NGO representatives and experts) agreed on objectives and actions to maintain the population in favourable conservation status, while accounting for biodiversity, economic and recreational interests. Agreements include setting a population target to reduce agricultural conflicts and avoid tundra degradation, and using hunting in some range states to maintain stable population size. As part of the adaptive management procedures, adjustment to harvest is made annually subject to population status. This has required streamlining of monitoring and assessment activities. Three years after implementation, indicators suggest the attainment of management results. Dialogue, consensus-building and engagement among stakeholders represent the major process achievements.

Goose management schemes to resolve conflicts with agriculture: Theory, practice and effects.

In 2012, the four countries hosting the Svalbard population of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus along its flyway launched an International Species Management Plan for the population. One of the aims was to reduce conflicts between geese and agriculture to an acceptable level. Since 2006, Norway has offered subsidies to farmers that provide refuge areas for geese on their land. We evaluate the mid-Norwegian goose management subsidy scheme, with a view to its adjustment to prevailing ecological and socio-economic parameters. The analysis indicates that the legitimacy of the scheme is highly dependent on transparency of knowledge management and accountability of management scheme to the farming community. Among farmers, as well as front-line officials, outcomes of prioritisation processes within the scheme are judged unfair when there is an evident mismatch between payments and genuine damage. We suggest how the scheme can be made more fair and responsive to ecological changes, within a framework of adaptive management.

Scaring as a tool to alleviate crop damage by geese: Revealing differences between farmers' perceptions and the scale of the problem.

Expanding populations of farmland foraging geese are causing escalating conflict with agriculture. We used questionnaires to investigate farmers´ perceptions in mid-Norway of spring staging geese and the extent to which they attempt to reduce pasture damage by goose scaring. We predicted farmers' scaring effort (a measure of dissatisfaction) to increase on fields closer to goose roosting sites where goose grazing intensity was highest (measured by dropping counts). Results showed no such relationship, suggesting that farmers' perception of goose use was not linked to actual goose use, but influenced by sociological factors and individual opinion. These results confirm the need to distribute subsidies/compensation to affected farmers based upon quantifiable measures of goose use rather than complaint levels. To avoid further conflict escalation, it is equally important that managers are aware of farmers´ perceptions and their causes, to effectively target communication about policies and measures to mitigate goose-agriculture problems.

Agriculture and herbivorous waterfowl: a review of the scientific basis for improved management.

Swans, geese and some ducks (Anatidae) are obligate herbivores, many are important quarry species and all contribute to a variety of ecosystem services. Population growth and shifting ranges have led to increasing proximity to man and thus increasing conflicts. We review and synthesize the role of these birds as herbivores on agricultural land (cropland, rotational grassland and pasture) and other terrestrial habitats where conflict with human interests may occur. A bibliographic analysis of peer-reviewed papers (N = 359) shows that publication activity peaked in 1991-2000 in North America and 2000-2010 in Europe, and has decreased since. Taxonomic and geographical biases are obvious in research to date: Snow Goose Chen caerulescens was the most studied species (N = 98), and Canada Branta canadensis, Barnacle B. leucopsis and Brent geese B. bernicla all featured in more than 40 studies; most studies originated in northwest Europe or North America, very few have been carried out in Asia and European Russia. On the basis of nutrient/energy budgets of herbivorous waterfowl, it is evident that dense single-species crops (such as rotational grassland, early-growth cereals and root crops) and spilled grain in agricultural landscapes offer elevated energetic and nutritional intake rates of food of higher quality compared to natural or semi-natural vegetation. Hence, although affected by seasonal nutritional demands, proximity to roost, field size, disturbance levels, access to water, food depletion and snow cover, agricultural landscapes tend to offer superior foraging opportunities over natural habitats, creating potential conflict with agriculture. Herbivorous waterfowl select for high protein, soluble carbohydrate and water content, high digestibility as well as low fibre and phenolic compounds, but intake rates from grazing varied with goose body and bill morphology, creating species-specific loci for conflict. Crop damage by trampling and puddling has not been demonstrated convincingly, nor do waterfowl faeces deter grazing stock, but where consumption of crops evidently reduces yields this causes conflict with farmers. Studies show that it is difficult and expensive to assess the precise impacts of waterfowl feeding on yield loss because of other sources of variation. However, less damage has been documented from winter grazing compared to spring grazing and yield loss after spring grazing on grassland appears more pronounced than losses on cereal fields. Although yield losses at national scales are trivial, individual farmers in areas of greatest waterfowl feeding concentrations suffer disproportionately, necessitating improved solutions to conflict. Accordingly, we review the efficacy of population management, disturbance, provision of alternative feeding areas, compensation and large-scale stakeholder involvement and co-management as options for resolving conflict based on the existing literature and present a framework of management advice for the future. We conclude with an assessment of the research needs for the immediate future to inform policy development, improve management of waterfowl populations and reduce conflict with agriculture.

Global change and ecosystem connectivity: How geese link fields of central Europe to eutrophication of Arctic freshwaters.

Migratory connectivity by birds may mutually affect different ecosystems over large distances. Populations of geese overwintering in southern areas while breeding in high-latitude ecosystems have increased strongly over the past decades. The increase is likely due to positive feedbacks caused by climate change at both wintering, stopover sites and breeding grounds, land-use practices at the overwintering grounds and protection from hunting. Here we show how increasing goose populations in temperate regions, and increased breeding success in the Arctic, entail a positive feedback with strong impacts on Arctic freshwater ecosystems in the form of eutrophication. This may again strongly affect community composition and productivity of the ponds, due to increased nutrient loadings or birds serving as vectors for new species.

Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population.

To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions.

Carry-Over or Compensation? The Impact of Winter Harshness and Post-Winter Body Condition on Spring-Fattening in a Migratory Goose Species.

Environmental conditions at one point of the annual cycle of migratory species may lead to cross-seasonal effects affecting fitness in subsequent seasons. Based on a long-term mark-resighting dataset and scoring of body condition in an arctic breeding goose species, we demonstrate a substantial effect of winter harshness on post-winter body condition. However, this effect was compensated along the spring migration corridor, and did not persist long enough to influence future reproduction. This highlights the importance of temporal scale when assessing impacts of environmental effects, and suggests a state-dependent physiological mechanism adjusting energy accumulation according to internal energy stores carried into spring. In support of these findings, the development of body condition was unaffected by whether geese used supplementary feeding sites or not. While there was no effect of winter harshness on the average population pre-breeding body condition, individual variations in early spring body condition (probably related to different life-histories) were partly traceable throughout spring. This strongly indicates a carry-over effect on the individual level, possibly related to differences in dominance, site use, disturbance or migration strategy, which may potentially affect future reproduction.

Regional management of farmland feeding geese using an ecological prioritization tool.

Wild geese foraging on farmland cause increasing conflicts with agricultural interests, calling for a strategic approach to mitigation. In central Norway, conflicts between farmers and spring-staging pink-footed geese feeding on pastures have escalated. To alleviate the conflict, a scheme by which farmers are subsidized to allow geese to forage undisturbed was introduced. To guide allocation of subsidies, an ecological-based ranking of fields at a regional level was recommended and applied. Here we evaluate the scheme. On average, 40 % of subsidized fields were in the top 5 % of the ranking, and 80 % were within the top 20 %. Goose grazing pressure on subsidized pastures was 13 times higher compared to a stratified random selection of non-subsidized pastures, capturing 67 % of the pasture feeding geese despite that subsidized fields only comprised 13 % of the grassland area. Close dialogue between scientists and managers is regarded as a key to the success of the scheme.

Towards a solution to the goose-agriculture conflict in North Norway, 1988-2012: the interplay between policy, stakeholder influence and goose population dynamics.

This paper presents results from a multidisciplinary study of a negotiation process between farmers and wildlife authorities which led to an agricultural subsidy scheme to alleviate conflicts between agriculture and geese in Norway. The Svalbard-breeding population of pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus has increased considerably over the last decades and conflicts with farmers have escalated, especially at stopover sites in spring when geese feed on newly sprouted pasture grass. In Vesterålen, an important stopover site for geese in North Norway, farmers deployed scaring of geese at varying intensity dependent on the level of conflict during 1988-2012. We assessed the efficiency of a subsidy scheme established in 2006, in terms of its conflict mitigation, reflected in a near discontinuation of scaring activities. The presence of pink-footed geese was analysed in relation to scaring intensity, the total goose population size and the increasing occurrence of another goose species, the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis. Scaring significantly affected the number of geese staging in Vesterålen, both in absolute and relative terms (controlling for total population size). The geese responded immediately to an increased, and reduced, level of scaring. Despite the establishment of the subsidy scheme, the number of pink-footed geese has recently declined which is probably caused by the increasing number of barnacle geese. For the farmers, the subsidy scheme provides funding that reduces the economic costs caused by the geese. Sustaining a low level of conflict will require close monitoring, dialogue and adaptation of the subsidy scheme to cater for changes in goose population dynamics.