RESUMEN
The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most frequently performed cardiovascular diagnostic test, but it is unclear how much information resting ECGs contain about long term cardiovascular risk. Here we report that a deep convolutional neural network can accurately predict the long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality and disease based on a resting ECG alone. Using a large dataset of resting 12-lead ECGs collected at Stanford University Medical Center, we developed SEER, the Stanford Estimator of Electrocardiogram Risk. SEER predicts 5-year cardiovascular mortality with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 in a held-out test set at Stanford, and with AUCs of 0.78 and 0.83 respectively when independently evaluated at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Columbia University Irving Medical Center. SEER predicts 5-year atherosclerotic disease (ASCVD) with an AUC of 0.67, similar to the Pooled Cohort Equations for ASCVD Risk, while being only modestly correlated. When used in conjunction with the Pooled Cohort Equations, SEER accurately reclassified 16% of patients from low to moderate risk, uncovering a group with an actual average 9.9% 10-year ASCVD risk who would not have otherwise been indicated for statin therapy. SEER can also predict several other cardiovascular conditions such as heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Using only lead I of the ECG it predicts 5-year cardiovascular mortality with an AUC of 0.80. SEER, used alongside the Pooled Cohort Equations and other risk tools, can substantially improve cardiovascular risk stratification and aid in medical decision making.
RESUMEN
Wearable devices enable theoretically continuous, longitudinal monitoring of physiological measurements such as step count, energy expenditure, and heart rate. Although the classification of abnormal cardiac rhythms such as atrial fibrillation from wearable devices has great potential, commercial algorithms remain proprietary and tend to focus on heart rate variability derived from green spectrum LED sensors placed on the wrist, where noise remains an unsolved problem. Here we develop DeepBeat, a multitask deep learning method to jointly assess signal quality and arrhythmia event detection in wearable photoplethysmography devices for real-time detection of atrial fibrillation. The model is trained on approximately one million simulated unlabeled physiological signals and fine-tuned on a curated dataset of over 500 K labeled signals from over 100 individuals from 3 different wearable devices. We demonstrate that, in comparison with a single-task model, our architecture using unsupervised transfer learning through convolutional denoising autoencoders dramatically improves the performance of atrial fibrillation detection from a F1 score of 0.54 to 0.96. We also include in our evaluation a prospectively derived replication cohort of ambulatory participants where the algorithm performed with high sensitivity (0.98), specificity (0.99), and F1 score (0.93). We show that two-stage training can help address the unbalanced data problem common to biomedical applications, where large-scale well-annotated datasets are hard to generate due to the expense of manual annotation, data acquisition, and participant privacy.
RESUMEN
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are poised to influence nearly every aspect of the human condition, and cardiology is not an exception to this trend. This paper provides a guide for clinicians on relevant aspects of artificial intelligence and machine learning, reviews selected applications of these methods in cardiology to date, and identifies how cardiovascular medicine could incorporate artificial intelligence in the future. In particular, the paper first reviews predictive modeling concepts relevant to cardiology such as feature selection and frequent pitfalls such as improper dichotomization. Second, it discusses common algorithms used in supervised learning and reviews selected applications in cardiology and related disciplines. Third, it describes the advent of deep learning and related methods collectively called unsupervised learning, provides contextual examples both in general medicine and in cardiovascular medicine, and then explains how these methods could be applied to enable precision cardiology and improve patient outcomes.
