Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s).

The transition from a humid green Sahara to today's hyperarid conditions in northern Africa ~5.5 thousand years ago shows the dramatic environmental change to which human societies were exposed and had to adapt to. In this work, we show that in the 620,000-year environmental record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift, with its decadal resolution, this one thousand year long transition is particularly well documented, along with 20-80 year long droughts, recurring every ~160 years, as possible early warnings. Together with events of extreme wetness at the end of the transition, these droughts form a pronounced climate "flickering", which can be simulated in climate models and is also present in earlier climate transitions in the Chew Bahir environmental record, indicating that transitions with flickering are characteristic of this region.

Interpolation and sampling effects on recurrence quantification measures.

The recurrence plot and the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) are well-established methods for the analysis of data from complex systems. They provide important insights into the nature of the dynamics, periodicity, regime changes, and many more. These methods are used in different fields of research, such as finance, engineering, life, and earth science. To use them, the data have usually to be uniformly sampled, posing difficulties in investigations that provide non-uniformly sampled data, as typical in medical data (e.g., heart-beat based measurements), paleoclimate archives (such as sediment cores or stalagmites), or astrophysics (supernova or pulsar observations). One frequently used solution is interpolation to generate uniform time series. However, this preprocessing step can introduce bias to the RQA measures, particularly those that rely on the diagonal or vertical line structure in the recurrence plot. Using prototypical model systems, we systematically analyze differences in the RQA measure average diagonal line length for data with different sampling and interpolation. For real data, we show that the course of this measure strongly depends on the choice of the sampling rate for interpolation. Furthermore, we suggest a correction scheme, which is capable of correcting the bias introduced by the prepossessing step if the interpolation ratio is an integer.

Pleistocene climate variability in eastern Africa influenced hominin evolution.

Despite more than half a century of hominin fossil discoveries in eastern Africa, the regional environmental context of hominin evolution and dispersal is not well established due to the lack of continuous palaeoenvironmental records from one of the proven habitats of early human populations, particularly for the Pleistocene epoch. Here we present a 620,000-year environmental record from Chew Bahir, southern Ethiopia, which is proximal to key fossil sites. Our record documents the potential influence of different episodes of climatic variability on hominin biological and cultural transformation. The appearance of high anatomical diversity in hominin groups coincides with long-lasting and relatively stable humid conditions from ~620,000 to 275,000 years bp (episodes 1-6), interrupted by several abrupt and extreme hydroclimate perturbations. A pattern of pronounced climatic cyclicity transformed habitats during episodes 7-9 (~275,000-60,000 years bp), a crucial phase encompassing the gradual transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technologies, the emergence of Homo sapiens in eastern Africa and key human social and cultural innovations. Those accumulative innovations plus the alignment of humid pulses between northeastern Africa and the eastern Mediterranean during high-frequency climate oscillations of episodes 10-12 (~60,000-10,000 years bp) could have facilitated the global dispersal of H. sapiens.

Orbital controls on eastern African hydroclimate in the Pleistocene.

Understanding eastern African paleoclimate is critical for contextualizing early human evolution, adaptation, and dispersal, yet Pleistocene climate of this region and its governing mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the lack of long, orbitally-resolved, terrestrial paleoclimate records. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope records of rainfall from paleolake sediment cores from key time windows that resolve long-term trends, variations, and high-latitude effects on tropical African precipitation. Eastern African rainfall was dominantly controlled by variations in low-latitude summer insolation during most of the early and middle Pleistocene, with little evidence that glacial-interglacial cycles impacted rainfall until the late Pleistocene. We observe the influence of high-latitude-driven climate processes emerging from the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5) to the present, an interval when glacial-interglacial cycles were strong and insolation forcing was weak. Our results demonstrate a variable response of eastern African rainfall to low-latitude insolation forcing and high-latitude-driven climate change, likely related to the relative strengths of these forcings through time and a threshold in monsoon sensitivity. We observe little difference in mean rainfall between the early, middle, and late Pleistocene, which suggests that orbitally-driven climate variations likely played a more significant role than gradual change in the relationship between early humans and their environment.

Paleo-ENSO influence on African environments and early modern humans.

In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620 ky, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth's eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans.

Episodes of environmental stability versus instability in Late Cenozoic lake records of Eastern Africa.

Episodes of environmental stability and instability may be equally important for African hominin speciation, dispersal, and cultural innovation. Three examples of a change from stable to unstable environmental conditions are presented on three different time scales: (1) the Mid Holocene (MH) wet-dry transition in the Chew Bahir basin (Southern Ethiopian Rift; between 11 ka and 4 ka), (2) the MIS 5-4 transition in the Naivasha basin (Central Kenya Rift; between 160 ka and 50 ka), and (3) the Early Mid Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) in the Olorgesailie basin (Southern Kenya Rift; between 1.25 Ma and 0.4 Ma). A probabilistic age modeling technique is used to determine the timing of these transitions, taking into account possible abrupt changes in the sedimentation rate including episodes of no deposition (hiatuses). Interestingly, the stable-unstable conditions identified in the three records are always associated with an orbitally-induced decrease of insolation: the descending portion of the 800 kyr cycle during the EMPT, declining eccentricity after the 115 ka maximum at the MIS 5-4 transition, and after ∼ 10 ka. This observation contributes to an evidence-based discussion of the possible mechanisms causing the switching between environmental stability and instability in Eastern Africa at three different orbital time scales (10,000 to 1,000,000 years) during the Cenozoic. This in turn may lead to great insights into the environmental changes occurring at the same time as hominin speciation, brain expansion, dispersal out of Africa, and cultural innovations and may provide key evidence to build new hypotheses regarding the causes of early human evolution.

A synthesis of the theories and concepts of early human evolution.

Current evidence suggests that many of the major events in hominin evolution occurred in East Africa. Hence, over the past two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of Africa has varied over the past 10 Myr. A new consensus is emerging that suggests the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created a complex, environmentally very variable setting. This new understanding of East African climate has led to the pulsed climate variability hypothesis that suggests the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity which may have driven hominin speciation, encephalization and dispersals out of Africa. This hypothesis is unique as it provides a conceptual framework within which other evolutionary theories can be examined: first, at macro-scale comparing phylogenetic gradualism and punctuated equilibrium; second, at a more focused level of human evolution comparing allopatric speciation, aridity hypothesis, turnover pulse hypothesis, variability selection hypothesis, Red Queen hypothesis and sympatric speciation based on sexual selection. It is proposed that each one of these mechanisms may have been acting on hominins during these short periods of climate variability, which then produce a range of different traits that led to the emergence of new species. In the case of Homo erectus (sensu lato), it is not just brain size that changes but life history (shortened inter-birth intervals, delayed development), body size and dimorphism, shoulder morphology to allow thrown projectiles, adaptation to long-distance running, ecological flexibility and social behaviour. The future of evolutionary research should be to create evidence-based meta-narratives, which encompass multiple mechanisms that select for different traits leading ultimately to speciation.

A MATLAB based orientation analysis of Acheulean handaxe accumulations in Olorgesailie and Kariandusi, Kenya Rift.

The Pleistocene archeological record in East Africa has revealed unusual accumulations of Acheulean handaxes at prehistoric sites. In particular, there has been intensive debate concerning whether the artifact accumulation at the Middle Pleistocene Olorgesailie (Southern Kenya Rift) and Kariandusi (Central Kenya Rift) sites were a result of fluvial reworking or of in situ deposition by hominids. We used a two-step approach to test the hypothesis of fluvial reworking. Firstly, the behavior of handaxes in water currents was investigated in a current flume and the flow threshold required to reorientate the handaxes was determined. The results of these experiments suggested that, in relatively high energy and non-steady flow conditions, handaxes will reorientate themselves perpendicular to the current direction. Secondly, an automated image analysis routine was developed and applied to archeological plans from three Acheulean sites, two at Olorgesailie and one at Kariandusi, in order to determine the orientations of the handaxes. A Rayleigh test was then applied to the orientation data to test for a preferred orientation. The results revealed that the handaxes at the Upper Kariandusi Site and the Olorgesailie Main Site Mid Trench had a preferential orientation, suggesting reworking by a paleocurrent. The handaxes from the Olorgesailie Main Site H/6A, however, appeared to be randomly oriented and in situ deposition by the producers therefore remains a possibility.

Hidden diversity in diatoms of Kenyan Lake Naivasha: a genetic approach detects temporal variation.

This study provides insights into the morphological and genetic diversity in diatoms occurring in core sediments from tropical lakes in Kenya. We developed a genetic survey technique specific for diatoms utilizing a short region (76-67 bp) of the ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase large subunit (rbcL) gene as genetic barcode. Our analyses (i) validated the use of rbcL as a barcoding marker for diatoms, applied to sediment samples, (ii) showed a significant correlation between the results obtained by morphological and molecular data and (iii) indicated temporal variation in diatom assemblages on the inter- and intra-specific level. Diatom assemblages from a short core from Lake Naivasha show a drastic shift over the last 200 years, as littoral species (e.g. Navicula) are replaced by more planktonic ones (e.g. Aulacoseira). Within that same period, we detected periodic changes in the respective frequencies of distinct haplotype groups of Navicula, which coincide with wet and dry periods of Lake Naivasha between 1820 and 1938 AD. Our genetic analyses on historical lake sediments revealed inter- and intra-specific variation in diatoms, which is partially hidden behind single morphotypes. The occurrence of particular genetic lineages is probably correlated with environmental factors.

Nonlinear detection of paleoclimate-variability transitions possibly related to human evolution.

Potential paleoclimatic driving mechanisms acting on human evolution present an open problem of cross-disciplinary scientific interest. The analysis of paleoclimate archives encoding the environmental variability in East Africa during the past 5 Ma has triggered an ongoing debate about possible candidate processes and evolutionary mechanisms. In this work, we apply a nonlinear statistical technique, recurrence network analysis, to three distinct marine records of terrigenous dust flux. Our method enables us to identify three epochs with transitions between qualitatively different types of environmental variability in North and East Africa during the (i) Middle Pliocene (3.35-3.15 Ma B.P.), (ii) Early Pleistocene (2.25-1.6 Ma B.P.), and (iii) Middle Pleistocene (1.1-0.7 Ma B.P.). A deeper examination of these transition periods reveals potential climatic drivers, including (i) large-scale changes in ocean currents due to a spatial shift of the Indonesian throughflow in combination with an intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, (ii) a global reorganization of the atmospheric Walker circulation induced in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, and (iii) shifts in the dominating temporal variability pattern of glacial activity during the Middle Pleistocene, respectively. A reexamination of the available fossil record demonstrates statistically significant coincidences between the detected transition periods and major steps in hominin evolution. This result suggests that the observed shifts between more regular and more erratic environmental variability may have acted as a trigger for rapid change in the development of humankind in Africa.

Molecular profiling of diatom assemblages in tropical lake sediments using taxon-specific PCR and Denaturing High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (PCR-DHPLC).

Here we present a protocol to genetically detect diatoms in sediments of the Kenyan tropical Lake Naivasha, based on taxon-specific PCR amplification of short fragments (approximately 100 bp) of the small subunit ribosomal (SSU) gene and subsequent separation of species-specific PCR products by PCR-based denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC). An evaluation of amplicons differing in primer specificity to diatoms and length of the fragments amplified demonstrated that the number of different diatom sequence types detected after cloning of the PCR products critically depended on the specificity of the primers to diatoms and the length of the amplified fragments whereby shorter fragments yielded more species of diatoms. The DHPLC was able to discriminate between very short amplicons based on the sequence difference, even if the fragments were of identical length and if the amplicons differed only in a small number of nucleotides. Generally, the method identified the dominant sequence types from mixed amplifications. A comparison with microscopic analysis of the sediment samples revealed that the sequence types identified in the molecular assessment corresponded well with the most dominant species. In summary, the PCR-based DHPLC protocol offers a fast, reliable and cost-efficient possibility to study DNA from sediments and other environmental samples with unknown organismic content, even for very short DNA fragments.

High- and low-latitude forcing of Plio-Pleistocene East African climate and human evolution.

The late Cenozoic climate of East Africa is punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme wetness and aridity, superimposed on a regime of subdued moisture availability exhibiting a long-term drying trend. These periods of extreme climate variability appear to correlate with maxima in the 400-thousand-year (kyr) component of the Earth's eccentricity cycle. Prior to 2.7 Ma the wet phases appear every 400 kyrs, whereas after 2.7 Ma, the wet phases appear every 800 kyrs, with periods of precessional-forced extreme climate variability at 2.7-2.5 Ma, 1.9-1.7 Ma, and 1.1-0.9 Ma before present. The last three major lake phases occur at the times of major global climatic transitions, such as the onset of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (2.7-2.5 Ma), intensification of the Walker Circulation (1.9-1.7 Ma), and the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (1.0-0.7 Ma). High-latitude forcing is required to compress the Intertropical Convergence Zone so that East Africa becomes locally sensitive to precessional forcing, resulting in rapid shifts from wet to dry conditions. These periods of extreme climate variability may have provided a catalyst for evolutionary change and driven key speciation and dispersal events amongst mammals and hominins in East Africa.

Late Cenozoic moisture history of East Africa.

Lake sediments in 10 Ethiopian, Kenyan, and Tanzanian rift basins suggest that there were three humid periods at 2.7 to 2.5 million years ago (Ma), 1.9 to 1.7 Ma, and 1.1 to 0.9 Ma, superimposed on the longer-term aridification of East Africa. These humid periods correlate with increased aridity in northwest and northeast Africa and with substantial global climate transitions. These episodes could have had important impacts on the speciation and dispersal of mammals and hominins, because a number of key events, such as the origin of the genus Homo and the evolution of the species Homo erectus, took place in this region during that time.