Crowdsourcing food security: introducing food choice derivatives for sustainability.

Global food supply chains are unprepared for the increasing number and severity of the expected environmental, social and economic shocks in the coming years. The price-setting process of commodities is directly impacted by such shocks, influencing consumer behavior regarding food choice and consumption. Both the market and advances in precision agriculture drive increased production and consumption. However, there has been a lack of consideration of how consumer behavior could be harnessed to mitigate such shocks through decreased consumption and reduced waste. The SAPPhIRE model of causality was applied to design sustainable and ecologically embedded futures derivatives that could have a role in affecting commodity markets. Multi-agent systems were combined with artificial intelligence and edge computing to provide the necessary functionality. The impact of war in Ukraine was used to exemplify the design of consumer "food choice" derivatives. This resulted in a mechanism to bring aggregated acts of consumer compassion and sustainability to commodities markets to mitigate food security shocks. When implementing food choice derivatives, care must be taken to ensure that consumer food choices are rational and compatible with individual nutritional needs and financial situations, and that the legitimate interests of agri-food businesses are protected.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Its Implications for the Global Food Supply Chains.

Food is one of the most traded goods, and the conflict in Ukraine, one of the European breadbaskets, has triggered a significant additional disruption in the global food supply chains after the COVID-19 impact. The disruption to food output, supply chains, availability, and affordability could have a long-standing impact. As a result, the availability and supply of a wide range of food raw materials and finished food products are under threat, and global markets have seen recent increases in food prices. Furthermore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has adversely affected food supply chains, with significant effects on production, sourcing, manufacturing, processing, logistics, and significant shifts in demand between nations reliant on imports from Ukraine. This paper aims to analyze the impacts of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the effectiveness and responsiveness of the global food supply chains. A PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) approach, including grey literature, was deployed to investigate six key areas of the food supply chains that would be impacted most due to the ongoing war. Findings include solutions and strategies to mitigate supply chain impacts such as alternative food raw materials, suppliers and supply chain partners supported by technological innovations to ensure food safety and quality in warlike situations.

COVID-19 demand-induced scarcity effects on nutrition and environment: investigating mitigation strategies for eggs and wheat flour in the United Kingdom.

The COVID-19 pandemic has drawn attention to food insecurity in developed countries. Despite adequate levels of agricultural production, consumers experienced demand-induced scarcity. Understanding the effects on nutrition and the environment is limited, yet critical to informing ecologically embedded mitigation strategies. To identify mitigation strategies, we investigated wheat flour and egg retail shortages in the United Kingdom (UK), focusing on consumer behavior during the COVID-19 lockdown. The 6 Steps for Quality Intervention Development (6SQuID) framework informed the methodology. Mixed qualitative and quantitative methods were used to pinpoint the causes of the shortages, and ecological impacts of consumer behavior were related using survey results (n = 243) and environmental and nutritional databases. This research confirmed consumers' narrowed consideration set, willingness to pay, and significant reliance on processed foods which indicates agronomic biofortification, breeding strategies, selective imports and improved processed food quality are important mitigation strategies. We identified positive and negative synergies in consumer, producer and retailer behavior and related these to mitigation strategies in support of a circular bio-economy for food production. We found that the substitutes or alternative foods consumed during the COVID-19 lockdown were nutritionally inadequate. We identified the most ecological substitute for wheat flour to be corn flour; and for eggs, yogurt. Our findings also indicate that selenium deficiency is a risk for the UK population, especially to the increasing fifth of the population that is vegetarian. Due to the need to implement short-, medium-, and long-term mitigation strategies, a coordinated effort is required by all stakeholders.