Designing local air pollution policies focusing on mobility and heating to avoid a targeted number of pollution-related deaths: Forward and backward approaches combining air pollution modeling, health impact assessment and cost-benefit analysis.

CONTEXT: Policies aiming at decreasing air pollutants (e.g., fine particulate matter, PM2.5) are often designed without targeting an explicit health benefit nor carrying out cost-benefit analyses. METHODS: We developed a transdisciplinary backward and forward approach at the conurbation level: from health objectives set by local decision-makers, we estimated which reductions in PM2.5 exposures and emissions would allow to reach them, and identified urban policies leading to these reductions (backward approach). We finally conducted health impact and cost-benefit analyses of these policies (forward approach). The policies were related to the most emitting sectors in the considered area (Grenoble, France), wood heating and transport sectors. The forward approach also considered the health impact and co-benefits of these policies related to changes in physical activity and CO2 emissions. FINDINGS: Decision-makers set three health targets, corresponding to decreases by 33% to 67% in PM2.5-attributable mortality in 2030, compared to 2016. A decrease by 42% in PM2.5 exposure (from 13.9 µg/m3) was required to reach the decrease by 67% in PM2.5-attributable mortality. For each Euro invested, the total benefit was about 30€ for policies focusing on wood heating, and 1 to 68€ for traffic policies. Acting on a single sector was not enough to attain a 67% decrease in PM2.5-attributable mortality. This target could be achieved by replacing all inefficient wood heating equipment by low-emission pellet stoves and reducing by 36% the traffic of private motorized vehicles. This would require to increase the share of active modes (walking, biking…), inducing increases in physical activity and additional health benefits beyond the initial target. Annual net benefits were between €484 and €629 per capita for policies with report on active modes, compared to between €162 and €270 without. CONCLUSIONS: Urban policies strongly reducing air pollution-attributable mortality can be identified by our approach. Such policies can be cost-efficient.

Cluster analysis of social and environment inequalities of infant mortality. A spatial study in small areas revealed by local disease mapping in France.

Mapping spatial distributions of disease occurrence can serve as a useful tool for identifying exposures of public health concern. Infant mortality is an important indicator of the health status of a population. Recent literature suggests that neighborhood deprivation status can modify the effect of air pollution on preterm delivery, a known risk factor for infant mortality. We investigated the effect of neighborhood social deprivation on the association between exposure to ambient air NO2 and infant mortality in the Lille and Lyon metropolitan areas, north and center of France, respectively, between 2002 and 2009. We conducted an ecological study using a neighborhood deprivation index estimated at the French census block from the 2006 census data. Infant mortality data were collected from local councils and geocoded using the address of residence. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. The average death rate was 4.2‰ and 4.6‰ live births for the Lille and Lyon metropolitan areas during the period. We found evidence of statistically significant precise clusters of elevated infant mortality for Lille and an east-west gradient of infant mortality risk for Lyon. Exposure to NO2 did not explain the spatial relationship. The Lille MA, socioeconomic deprivation index explained the spatial variation observed. These techniques provide evidence of clusters of significantly elevated infant mortality risk in relation with the neighborhood socioeconomic status. This method could be used for public policy management to determine priority areas for interventions. Moreover, taking into account the relationship between social and environmental exposure may help identify areas with cumulative inequalities.