The impact of continuity correction methods in Cochrane reviews with single-zero trials with rare events: A meta-epidemiological study.

Meta-analyses examining dichotomous outcomes often include single-zero studies, where no events occur in intervention or control groups. These pose challenges, and several methods have been proposed to address them. A fixed continuity correction method has been shown to bias estimates, but it is frequently used because sometimes software (e.g., RevMan software in Cochrane reviews) uses it as a default. We aimed to empirically compare results using the continuity correction with those using alternative models that do not require correction. To this aim, we reanalyzed the original data from 885 meta-analyses in Cochrane reviews using the following methods: (i) Mantel-Haenszel model with a fixed continuity correction, (ii) random effects inverse variance model with a fixed continuity correction, (iii) Peto method (the three models available in RevMan), (iv) random effects inverse variance model with the treatment arm continuity correction, (v) Mantel-Haenszel model without correction, (vi) logistic regression, and (vii) a Bayesian random effects model with binominal likelihood. For each meta-analysis we calculated ratios of odds ratios between all methods, to assess how the choice of method may impact results. Ratios of odds ratios <0.8 or <1.25 were seen in ~30% of the existing meta-analyses when comparing results between Mantel-Haenszel model with a fixed continuity correction and either Mantel-Haenszel model without correction or logistic regression. We concluded that injudicious use of the fixed continuity correction in existing Cochrane reviews may have substantially influenced effect estimates in some cases. Future updates of RevMan should incorporate less biased statistical methods.

Development of quality indicators for pregnancy and childbirth in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVES: A quality indicator for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus during pregnancy and childbirth that is useful for sharing standard treatment policies has not yet been developed. This study aimed to develop a quality indicator for systemic lupus erythematosus associated with pregnancy and childbirth. METHODS: To identify candidate quality indicators, we conducted a systematic literature review on the development of quality indicators for systemic lupus erythematosus related to pregnancy and childbirth and on clinical practice guidelines. Candidate quality indicator items were extracted from the final selected articles, and a first evaluation, panel meeting, and second evaluation were conducted to determine whether the candidate items were appropriate as quality indicators. Items for which all panel members reached a consensus were designated pregnancy and childbirth-related systemic lupus erythematosus quality indicators. RESULTS: Four articles on systemic lupus erythematosus-quality indicator development and 28 practice guidelines were listed through abstract/text screening. Based on these studies, 52 candidate quality indicators were extracted that were limited to items related to pregnancy and childbirth, and 41 items were selected on which all panel members agreed. CONCLUSION: We developed pregnancy-related systemic lupus erythematosus quality indicators using the RAND/UCLA method and selected 41 items, which could be used clinically.

Prevalence of hazardous drinking and suspected alcohol dependence in Japanese primary care settings.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the prevalence of hazardous drinking and potential alcohol dependence among Japanese primary care patients, and their readiness to change and awareness of others' concerns. METHODS: From July to August 2023, we conducted a multi-site cross-sectional study as a screening survey for participants in a cluster randomized controlled trial. The trial included outpatients aged 20-74 from primary care clinics. Using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) alongside a self-administered questionnaire, we evaluated the prevalence of hazardous drinking and suspected alcohol dependence, patients' readiness to change, and their awareness of others' concerns. RESULTS: Among the 1388 participants from 18 clinics, 22% (95% confidence interval (CI): 20% to 24%) were identified as engaging in hazardous drinking or suspected of being alcohol dependent. As the AUDIT scores increased, so did their readiness to change. However, only 22% (95%CI: 16% to 28%) of those with scores ranging from 8 to 14 reported that others, including physicians, had expressed concerns about their drinking during the past year. For those with scores of 15 or higher, the figure was 74%. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the need for universal or high-risk alcohol screening and brief intervention in Japanese primary care settings. Trial registry UMIN-CTR (https://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/) (UMIN000051388).

Perspectives on the optimal timing of advance care planning among Japanese patients undergoing dialysis and clinicians: a cross-sectional study.

KEY MESSAGES: The majority of dialysis patients and clinicians favor early advance care planning in our sample. Yet, there is a disconnect: only 11% of patients discussed future care with their clinicians. Our findings indicate Japanese dialysis patients and clinicians support proactive advance care planning at or before dialysis initiation. BACKGROUND: Little is known about the optimal timing of discussions about advance care planning among dialysis patients and clinicians engaged in dialysis care. We aimed to explore the preferred timing for advance care planning and assess actual participation in advance care planning among dialysis patients and their clinicians. METHODS: A scenario-based survey on Japanese patients aged ≥65 years on dialysis and clinicians involved in their dialysis care was performed. Participants were asked if they would feel prepared to engage in advance care planning with their clinicians, offering a choice among four hypothetical stages within the illness trajectory, extending from the initiation of dialysis to a later phase characterized by the patient's extreme frailty. RESULTS: Overall, 181 patients and 128 clinicians participated in the study. Among these, 131 (72%) patients, and 84 (66%) clinicians indicated that they would prefer to initiate advance care planning around the time of dialysis initiation. Only 20 patients (11%) indicated that they had participated in advance care planning with at least one clinician, including 11 (6%) who indicated that they had discussed their preferences around life-sustaining treatments and 8 (4%) who had discussed their preferences around dialysis continuation. CONCLUSIONS: While fewer than 11% of patients undergoing dialysis and their clinicians enrolled in our study had participated in advance care planning, most indicated that they would be comfortable initiating the discussion around the time of dialysis initiation. These findings suggest untapped opportunities to engage patients in advance care planning early in the course of their dialysis.

Physical therapy for peripheral facial palsy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to reveal the efficacy of physical therapy for patients with peripheral facial palsy. METHODS: A literature search was conducted using PubMed, Ichushi-Web, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Published randomized controlled trials comparing the physical therapy versus placebo/non-treatment for peripheral facial palsy such as Bell's palsy, Ramsay Hunt syndrome, and traumatic facial palsy were included for meta-analysis. The primary outcome was non-recovery at the end of the follow-up. Non-recovery was defined according to the authors' definition. The secondary outcomes were the composite score of the Sunnybrook facial grading system and sequelae (presence of synkinesis or hemifacial spasm) at the end of the follow-up. Data was analyzed using Review Manager software and pooled risk ratio (RR) or mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: Seven randomized controlled trials met the eligible criteria. The data on non-recovery from four studies was obtained and included 418 participants in the meta-analysis. Physical therapy might reduce non-recovery (RR = 0.51 [95% CI = 0.31-0.83], low quality). Pooling the data of composite score of the Sunnybrook facial grading system from three studies (166 participants) revealed that physical therapy might increase the composite scores (MD = 12.1 [95% CI = 3.11-21.0], low quality). Moreover, we obtained data on sequelae from two articles (179 participants). The evidence was very uncertain about the effect of physical therapy on reduction of sequelae (RR = 0.64 [95% CI = 0.07-5.95], very low quality). CONCLUSION: The evidence suggested that physical therapy reduces non-recovery in patients with peripheral facial palsy and improves the composite score of the Sunnybrook facial grading system, whereas the efficacy of physical therapy in reducing sequelae remained uncertain. The included studies had high risk of bias, imprecision, or inconsistency; therefore, the certainty of evidence was low or very low. Further well-designed randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm its efficacy.

Prevalence of Drug Fever among Cases of Nosocomial Fever: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Objective Drug fever is defined as a fever that temporally coincides with the start of a culprit drug and disappears after discontinuation of the drug. It is a common cause of nosocomial fever, which refers to a fever that develops beyond the first 48 h after hospital admission. However, the exact prevalence of drug fever among cases of nosocomial fever is unclear, as is the variation in prevalence depending on the clinical setting and most common causative drugs. Methods PubMed MEDLINE, Dialog EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov were systematically searched. Studies that reported the prevalence of drug fever in patients with nosocomial fever were included. Two of the four reviewers conducted independent assessments of the inclusion, data extraction, and quality. Pooled adjusted odds ratios were generated using a random-effects model and presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Fifteen meta-analysis from 15 studies were included. Ten studies did not report the definition of drug fever or excluded febrile patients who were admitted to the hospital within 24-48 h. The pooled prevalence of drug fever among cases of nosocomial fever was 3.0% (95% CI, 0.6-6.8%), which was largely consistent across the settings, except for at oriental medicine hospital. Only four studies reported the causative agents, and antibiotics were the most frequently reported. Conclusions The prevalence of drug fever is low in patients with nosocomial fever. Clinicians should recognize that drug fever is a diagnosis of exclusion, even in cases of nosocomial fever.

Peer Support for Patients With Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Peer support, which is given by people with similar life experiences and experiential knowledge, has been shown to be effective for patients with diabetes and mental illness. However, the impact of such peer support on patients coping with heart failure remains indeterminate. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to scrutinize the potential benefits of peer support for patients with heart failure. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effectiveness of peer support for patients with heart failure in contrast to those without peer support. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov until October 2022. We pooled the data on mortality, readmission rate, and quality of life (QoL) as primary outcomes. The certainty of evidence was evaluated by the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation (GRADE) approach. We included three studies with 390 patients with heart failure. Peer support may have resulted in a slight increase in mortality (risk ratio (RR)=1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.61-2.21; low certainty of the evidence) and in a reduction in the readmission rate (RR=0.93, 95% CI=0.74-1.17; low certainty of the evidence). The evidence was very uncertain about the effect of peer support on QoL (standardized mean difference 2.03 higher in the intervention group, 95% CI=1.79 lower to 5.84 higher; very low certainty of the evidence). Despite that the certainty is low or very low, the extant data available evidence suggests that peer support may not yield substantial improvements in critical outcomes for patients with heart failure. Consequently, endorsing peer support for patients with heart failure currently seems unjustifiable.

Epidemiology and Reporting Characteristics of Systematic Reviews in Orthopedic Journals: A Meta-Epidemiological Study.

Systematic reviews (SRs) with complete reporting or rigorous methods can lead to less biased recommendations and decisions. A comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological and reporting characteristics of SRs in orthopedics is lacking. We evaluated 360 SRs, including 165 and 195 published in orthopedic journals in 2012 and 2022. According to the established reporting guidelines, we examined these SRs for key epidemiological characteristics, including focus areas, type of meta-analysis (MA), and reporting characteristics. Most SRs (71%) were therapy-related, with a significant proportion originating from authors in the USA, UK, and China. Pairwise MA was performed on half of the SRs. The proportion of protocol registrations improved by 2022 but remained low (33%). Despite a formal declaration of adherence to the reporting guidelines (68%), they were often not used and reported enough. Only 10% of the studies used full search strategies, including trial registries. Publication bias assessments, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses were not even planned. The risk of bias assessment improved in 2022; however, the certainty of the evidence remained largely unassessed (8%). The use and reporting of standard methods in orthopedic SRs have remained suboptimal. Thus, authors, peer reviewers, journal editors, and readers should criticize the results more.

An open competition involving thousands of competitors failed to construct useful abstract classifiers for new diagnostic test accuracy systematic reviews.

There are currently no abstract classifiers, which can be used for new diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) systematic reviews to select primary DTA study abstracts from database searches. Our goal was to develop machine-learning-based abstract classifiers for new DTA systematic reviews through an open competition. We prepared a dataset of abstracts obtained through database searches from 11 reviews in different clinical areas. As the reference standard, we used the abstract lists that required manual full-text review. We randomly splitted the datasets into a train set, a public test set, and a private test set. Competition participants used the training set to develop classifiers and validated their classifiers using the public test set. The classifiers were refined based on the performance of the public test set. They could submit as many times as they wanted during the competition. Finally, we used the private test set to rank the submitted classifiers. To reduce false exclusions, we used the Fbeta measure with a beta set to seven for evaluating classifiers. After the competition, we conducted the external validation using a dataset from a cardiology DTA review. We received 13,774 submissions from 1429 teams or persons over 4 months. The top-honored classifier achieved a Fbeta score of 0.4036 and a recall of 0.2352 in the external validation. In conclusion, we were unable to develop an abstract classifier with sufficient recall for immediate application to new DTA systematic reviews. Further studies are needed to update and validate classifiers with datasets from other clinical areas.

Twenty-year follow-up of promising clinical studies reported in highly circulated newspapers: a meta-epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVES: Researchers have identified cases in which newspaper stories have exaggerated the results of medical studies reported in original articles. Moreover, the exaggeration sometimes begins with journal articles. We examined what proportion of the studies quoted in newspaper stories were confirmed. METHODS: We identified newspaper stories from 2000 that mentioned the effectiveness of certain treatments or preventions based on original studies from 40 main medical journals. We searched for subsequent studies until June 2022 with the same topic and stronger research design than each original study. The results of the original studies were verified by comparison with those of subsequent studies. RESULTS: We identified 164 original articles from 1298 newspaper stories and randomly selected 100 of them. Four studies were not found to be effective in terms of the primary outcome, and 18 had no subsequent studies. Of the remaining studies, the proportion of confirmed studies was 68.6% (95% CI 58.1% to 77.5%). Among the 59 confirmed studies, 13 of 16 studies were considered to have been replicated in terms of effect size. However, the results of the remaining 43 studies were not comparable. DISCUSSION: In the dichotomous judgement of effectiveness, about two-thirds of the results were nominally confirmed by subsequent studies. However, for most confirmed results, it was impossible to determine whether the effect sizes were stable. CONCLUSIONS: Newspaper readers should be aware that some claims made by high-quality newspapers based on high-profile journal articles may be overturned by subsequent studies within the next 20 years.

Prediction Models for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Kawasaki Disease: A Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Approximately 10% to 20% of patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) are refractory to initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy. KD is mainly associated with coronary artery abnormalities. OBJECTIVES: To identify and evaluate all developed prediction models for IVIG resistance in patients with KD and synthesize evidence from external validation studies that evaluated their predictive performances. DATA SOURCES: PubMed Medline, Dialog Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception until October 5, 2021. STUDY SELECTION: All cohort studies that reported patients diagnosed with KD who underwent an initial IVIG of 2 g/kg were selected. DATA EXTRACTION: Study and patient characteristics and model performance measures. Two authors independently extracted data from the studies. RESULTS: The Kobayashi, Egami, Sano, Formosa, and Harada scores were the only prediction models with 3 or more external validation of the161 model analyses in 48 studies. The summary C-statistics were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.73), 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.71), 0.58 (95% CI: 0.55-0.60), 0.50 (95% CI: 0.36-0.63), and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.44-0.78) for the Kobayashi, Egami, Sano, Formosa, and Harada models, respectively. All 5 models showed low positive predictive values (0.14-0.39) and high negative predictive values (0.85-0.92). LIMITATIONS: Potential differences in the characteristics of the target population among studies and lack of assessment of calibrations. CONCLUSIONS: None of the 5 prediction models with external validation accurately distinguished between patients with and without IVIG resistance.

An extension minimal important difference credibility item addressing construct proximity is a reliable alternative to the correlation item.

OBJECTIVES: Minimal important difference (MID), the smallest change or difference that patients perceive as important, aids interpretation of change in patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) scores. A credibility instrument that assesses the methodological rigor of an anchor-based MID includes one core item addressing the correlation between the PROM and the anchor. However, the majority of MID studies in the literature fail to report the correlation. To address this issue, we extended the anchor-based MID credibility instrument by adding an item addressing construct proximity as an alternative to the correlation item. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Informed by an MID methodological survey, we added an alternative item-a subjective assessment of similarity of the constructs (i.e., construct proximity) between PROM and anchor-to the correlation item and generated principles for the assessment. We sampled 101 MIDs and analyzed the assessments performed by each pair of raters. By calculating weighted Cohen's kappa, we assessed the reliability of the assessments. RESULTS: Construct proximity assessment is based on the anticipated association between the anchor and PROM constructs: the closer the anticipated association, the higher the rating. Our detailed principles address the most frequently used anchors: transition ratings, measures of satisfaction, other PROMs, and clinical measures. The assessments showed acceptable agreement (weighted kappa 0.74, 95% CI 0.55-0.94) between raters. CONCLUSION: In the absence of a reported correlation coefficient, construct proximity assessment provides a useful alternative in the credibility assessment of anchor-based MID estimates.

Outcomes in novel hospital-at-home model for patients with COVID-19: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital-at-home (HaH) care has been proposed as an alternative to inpatient care for patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Previous reports were hospital-led and involved patients triaged at the hospitals. To reduce the burden on hospitals, we constructed a novel HaH care model organized by a team of local primary care clinics. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study of the COVID-19 patients who received our HaH care from 1 January to 31 March 2022. Patients who were not able to be triaged for the need for hospitalization by the Health Center solely responsible for the management of COVID-19 patients in Osaka city were included. The primary outcome was receiving medical care beyond the HaH care defined as a composite outcome of any medical consultation, hospitalization, or death within 30 days from the initial treatment. RESULTS: Of 382 eligible patients, 34 (9%) were triaged for hospitalization immediately after the initial visit. Of the remaining 348 patients followed up, 37 (11%) developed the primary outcome, while none died. Obesity, fever, and gastrointestinal symptoms at baseline were independently associated with an increased risk of needing medical care beyond the HaH care. A further 129 (37%) patients were managed online alone without home visit, and 170 (50%) required only 1 home visit in addition to online treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The HaH care model with a team of primary care clinics was able to triage patients with COVID-19 who needed immediate hospitalization without involving hospitals, and treated most of the remaining patients at home.

Diagnostic accuracy of rapid antigen tests in cerebrospinal fluid for pneumococcal meningitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of bacterial meningitis worldwide. Conventional microbiological assays take several days and require the use of various drugs for empirical treatment. Rapid antigen tests in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) may be useful to triage pneumococcal meningitis immediately. OBJECTIVES: To elucidate whether rapid antigen tests in CSF are useful in the triage of pneumococcal meningitis. METHODS: Data sourcesCochrane CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched. Study eligibility criteriaAll types of cohort studies except multiple-group studies, where the sensitivity and specificity of rapid antigen tests in CSF compared with CSF culture can be extracted. ParticipantsPatients with suspected meningitis. TestsRapid antigen tests in CSF. Reference standardsOne or more of the following: blood culture, CSF culture, and polymerase chain reaction in CSF. Assessment of risk of biasThe methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using QUADAS-2. Methods of data synthesisWe used a random-effects bivariate model for the meta-analysis. We conducted a subgroup analysis by dividing studies into types of antigen tests, adults and children, low-income and high-income countries, and with or without exposure to antibiotics before lumbar puncture. RESULTS: Forty-four studies involving 14 791 participants were included. Most studies had a moderate-to-low methodological quality. Summary sensitivity and specificity were 99.5% (95% confidence interval (CI), 92.4-100%) and 98.2% (95% CI, 96.9-98.9%), respectively. Positive predictive values and negative predictive values at the median prevalence (4.2%) in the included studies were 70.8% (95% CI, 56.6-79.9%) and 100% (95% CI, 99.7-100%), respectively. The diagnostic accuracy was consistent across the various subgroups, except for slightly reduced sensitivity in high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid antigen tests in CSF would be useful in triaging pneumococcal meningitis. Further studies are warranted to investigate the clinical benefit of ruling out pneumococcal meningitis based on the results of rapid antigen tests.

Proportion attributable to contextual effects in general medicine: a meta-epidemiological study based on Cochrane reviews.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to examine the magnitude of the proportion attributable to contextual effects (PCE), which shows what proportion of the treatment arm response can be achieved by the placebo arm across various interventions, and to examine PCE variability by outcome type and condition. DESIGN: We conducted a meta-epidemiological study. SETTING: We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews with the keyword 'placebo' in titles, abstracts and keywords on 1 January 2020. PARTICIPANTS: We included reviews that showed statistically significant beneficial effects of the intervention over placebo for the first primary outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We performed a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate PCEs based on the pooled result of each included review, grouped by outcome type and condition. The PCE quantifies how much of the observed treatment response can be achieved by the contextual effects. PUBLIC AND PATIENT INVOLVEMENT STATEMENT: No patient or member of the public was involved in conducting this research. RESULTS: We included 328 out of 3175 Cochrane systematic reviews. The results of meta-analyses showed that PCEs varied greatly depending on outcome type (I2=98%) or condition (I2=98%), but mostly lie between 0.40 and 0.95. Overall, the PCEs were 0.65 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.72) on average. Subjective outcomes were 0.50 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.59), which was significantly smaller than those of semiobjective (PCE 0.78; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.85) or objective outcomes (PCE 0.94; 95% CI 0.91 to 0.97). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that much of the observed benefit is not just due to the specific effect of the interventions. The specific effects of interventions may be larger for subjective outcomes than for objective or semiobjective outcomes. However, PCEs were exceptionally variable. When we evaluate the magnitude of PCEs, we should consider each PCE individually, for each condition, intervention and outcome in its context, to assess the importance of an intervention for each specific clinical setting.

Beta-lactam allergy and drug challenge test in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most cases of beta-lactam allergy in children are likely to be mislabeled. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of true positives, as determined by drug challenge tests, and the rate of false negatives in children with suspected allergies and confirm the safety of the drug challenge test. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to established procedures. Study participants were children with suspected beta-lactam allergy who underwent a drug challenge. PubMed MEDLINE, Dialog EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and clinicaltrials.gov were searched from inception until March 5, 2021. RESULTS: The pooled prevalence of (a) positive results in the first challenge was 0.049 (95% CI, 0.041-0.057; I2 = 71%) from 78 studies; (b) serious adverse events was 0.00 (95% CI, 0.00-0.00; I2 = 0.0%) from 62 studies; and (c) positive results in the second challenge after the first negative result was 0.028 (95% CI, 0.016-0.043; I2 = 38%) from 18 studies. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of children with suspected beta-lactam allergy with true-positive results and false-negative results from the drug challenge test was very low. Serious adverse events resulting from drug challenge tests were also very rare. IMPACT: Most children with suspected beta-lactam allergy were likely to be mislabeled. Serious adverse events caused by the drug challenge test were rare. Few false-negative results were obtained from the drug challenge test.