Centering relationships to place for more meaningful research and engagement.

Research has the potential to simultaneously generate new knowledge and contribute meaningful social-ecological benefits; however, research processes and outcomes can also perpetuate extractive patterns that have manifested the climate, biodiversity, and social justice crises. One approach to enhance the societal value of research processes is to strengthen relationships with places of study and the peoples of those places. Deepening relational engagement with the social-ecological context and history of a place can lead to more accurate results and improved public trust in the scientific process and is particularly important for natural scientists who work at the interface of nature and society. We provide three actionable pathways that range from individual to systemic change to enhance place-based relationships within research systems: 1) deepen reflection and communication about relationships with places and peoples; 2) strengthen collaboration among research teams and partners; and 3) transform systems of knowledge creation to foster place-based roots. Action on any of these proposed pathways, but especially action taken across all three, can build empathy and connections to place and people, strengthening the meaningful impact of research both locally and globally.

A data-driven approach to multiple-stressor impact assessment for a marine protected area.

The coastal environment is not managed in a way that considers the impact of cumulative threats, despite being subject to threats from all realms (marine, land, and atmosphere). Relationships between threats and species are often nonlinear; thus, current (linear) approaches to estimating the impact of threats may be misleading. We developed a data-driven approach to assessing cumulative impacts on ecosystems and applied it to explore nonlinear relationships between threats and a temperate reef fish community. We used data on water quality, commercial fishing, climate change, and indicators of recreational fishing and urbanization to build a cumulative threat map of the northern region in New South Wales, Australia. We used statistical models of fish abundance to quantify associations among threats and biophysical covariates and predicted where cumulative impacts are likely to have the greatest impact on fish. We also assessed the performance of no-take zones (NTZs), to protect fish from cumulative threats across 2 marine protected area networks (marine parks). Fishing had a greater impact on fish than water quality threats (i.e., percent increase above the mean for invertivores was 337% when fishing was removed and was 11% above the mean when water quality was removed inside NTZs), and fishing outside NTZs affected fish abundances inside NTZs. Quantifying the spatial influence of multiple threats enables managers to understand the multitude of management actions required to address threats.

Una estrategia basada en datos para la evaluación de impacto de múltiples estresores en un área marina protegida Resumen Los ambientes costeros no se manejan de manera que se considere el impacto de las amenazas acumulativas, a pesar de que se enfrentan a amenazas de todos los entornos (marinas, terrestres y atmosféricas). Las relaciones entre las amenazas y las especies casi siempre son no lineales; por lo tanto, las estrategias actuales (lineales) para estimar el impacto de las amenazas pueden ser engañosas. Desarrollamos una estrategia basada en datos para evaluar el impacto acumulativo sobre los ecosistemas y la aplicamos para explorar las relaciones no lineales entre las amenazas y la comunidad de peces de arrecifes templados. Usamos datos de la calidad del agua, pesca comercial, cambio climático e indicadores de pesca recreativa y urbanización para construir un mapa acumulativo de amenazas de la región norte de Nueva Gales del Sur, Australia. Usamos modelos estadísticos de la abundancia de peces para cuantificar las asociaciones entre las amenazas y las covarianzas biofísicas y pronosticamos en dónde es probable que los impactos acumulativos sean mayores sobre los peces. También evaluamos el desempeño de las zonas de veda para así proteger a los peces de las amenazas acumulativas en dos redes de áreas marinas protegidas (parques marinos). La pesca tuvo un mayor impacto que la calidad del agua sobre los peces (es decir, el incremento del porcentaje por encima de la media de depredadores de invertebrados fue de 337% cuando se eliminó la pesca y fue de 11% por encima de la media cuando se eliminó la calidad del agua dentro de las zonas de veda) y la pesca fuera de las zonas de veda afectó la abundancia de los peces dentro de ellas. La cuantificación de la influencia espacial de las múltiples amenazas permite que los gestores entiendan la multitud de acciones de manejo que se requieren para abordar las amenazas.

Protected area planning to conserve biodiversity in an uncertain future.

Protected areas are a key instrument for conservation. Despite this, they are vulnerable to risks associated with weak governance, land-use intensification, and climate change. We used a novel hierarchical optimization approach to identify priority areas for expanding the global protected area system that explicitly accounted for such risks while maximizing protection of all known terrestrial vertebrate species. To incorporate risk categories, we built on the minimum set problem, where the objective is to reach species distribution protection targets while accounting for 1 constraint, such as land cost or area. We expanded this approach to include multiple objectives accounting for risk in the problem formulation by treating each risk layer as a separate objective in the problem formulation. Reducing exposure to these risks required expanding the area of the global protected area system by 1.6% while still meeting conservation targets. Incorporating risks from weak governance drove the greatest changes in spatial priorities for protection, and incorporating risks from climate change required the largest increase (2.52%) in global protected area. Conserving wide-ranging species required countries with relatively strong governance to protect more land when they bordered nations with comparatively weak governance. Our results underscore the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination and demonstrate how risk can be efficiently incorporated into conservation planning. Planeación de las áreas protegidas para conservar la biodiversidad en un futuro incierto.

Aunque las áreas protegidas son un instrumento clave para la conservación, no dejan de ser vulnerables a los riesgos asociados a una gestión pobre, la intensificación del uso de suelo y al cambio climático. Usamos una estrategia novedosa de optimización jerárquica para identificar las áreas prioritarias para la expansión del sistema global de áreas protegidas. La estrategia consideró de manera explícita los riesgos mencionados y también maximizó la protección de todas las especies conocidas de vertebrados terrestres. Para incorporar a las categorías de riesgo partimos del mínimo problema establecido, en donde el objetivo es lograr los objetivos de protección de la distribución de especies mientras se considera sólo una restricción, como el costo o área del suelo. Expandimos esta estrategia para que incluyera varios objetivos que consideraran el riesgo desde la formulación del problema mediante el manejo de cada nivel de riesgo como un objetivo aparte durante la formulación del problema. La reducción de la exposición a estos riesgos requirió que se expandiera el área total del sistema global de áreas protegidas en un 1.6% y así todavía cumplir con los objetivos de conservación. La incorporación de riesgos a partir de una gestión pobre fue el principal impulsor de cambios en las prioridades espaciales para la protección, mientras que la incorporación de riesgos a partir del cambio climático requirió el mayor incremento (2.52%) del área protegida a nivel mundial. La conservación de especies con distribución amplia requirió que los países con una gestión relativamente fuerte protegieran más suelo al tener fronteras con países con una gestión pobre en comparación son la suya. Nuestros resultados destacan la necesidad de una coordinación entre jurisdicciones y demuestran cómo puede incorporarse el riesgo de manera exitosa a la planeación de la conservación.

Recovery of carbon benefits by overharvested baleen whale populations is threatened by climate change.

Despite the importance of marine megafauna on ecosystem functioning, their contribution to the oceanic carbon cycle is still poorly known. Here, we explored the role of baleen whales in the biological carbon pump across the southern hemisphere based on the historical and forecasted abundance of five baleen whale species. We modelled whale-mediated carbon sequestration through the sinking of their carcasses after natural death. We provide the first temporal dynamics of this carbon pump from 1890 to 2100, considering both the effects of exploitation and climate change on whale populations. We reveal that at their pre-exploitation abundance, the five species of southern whales could sequester 4.0 × 105 tonnes of carbon per year (tC yr-1). This estimate dropped to 0.6 × 105 tC yr-1 by 1972 following commercial whaling. However, with the projected restoration of whale populations under a RCP8.5 climate scenario, the sequestration would reach 1.7 × 105 tC yr-1 by 2100, while without climate change, recovered whale populations could sequester nearly twice as much (3.2 × 105 tC yr-1) by 2100. This highlights the persistence of whaling damages on whale populations and associated services as well as the predicted harmful impacts of climate change on whale ecosystem services.

Accounting for direct and indirect cumulative effects of anthropogenic pressures on salmon- and herring-linked land and ocean ecosystems.

Salmon and herring support both land and ocean predators and are critical to ecosystem resilience. Their linkages across land and sea realms make them highly susceptible to human activities, which can have flow-on effects up the food web. We quantify and compare the potential cumulative effects of human-driven pressures on interdependent species in salmon- and herring-linked ecosystems of western Canada using a risk assessment methodology. Adding indirect risks resulted in 68% greater total risks for land species than for direct risk alone, versus 15% for marine species. Inclusion of climate change pressures resulted in the greatest change in risk for low trophic marine species and habitats (greater than 25% increase). Forestry-related pressures accounted for the highest risk to all species and projected management of these pressures resulted in a total reduction of risk across all ecosystem components that was more than 14% greater than management of fisheries pressures. Ignoring land food web linkages and pressures underestimated cumulative risk by more than 40% for salmon and herring. This simple framework can be used to evaluate potential risk of existing human uses and future change to inform immediate management of linked land-sea ecosystems and help species avoid the 'death by a thousand cuts'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems'.

An introduction to decision science for conservation.

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.

Las decisiones sobre la conservación de la biodiversidad son difíciles de tomar, especialmente cuando involucran diferentes valores, objetivos multidimensionales complejos, recursos limitados, urgencia y una incertidumbre considerable. Las ciencias de la decisión incorporan una teoría sobre cómo tomar decisiones difíciles y una variedad extensa de marcos de trabajo y herramientas que transforman esa teoría en práctica. Buscamos mejorar la claridad conceptual y la aplicación práctica de las ciencias de la decisión para ayudar al órgano decisorio a aplicar estas ciencias a los problemas de conservación. Nos enfocamos en las barreras para la aceptación de las ciencias de la decisión, incluyendo la falta de capacitación y de conciencia por estas ciencias; la confusión por la terminología común y cuáles herramientas y marcos de trabajo aplicar; y la impresión errónea de que la aplicación de estas ciencias consume tiempo y debe ser costosa y compleja. Para asistir en la navegación de la literatura extensa y dispar de las ciencias de la decisión, aclaramos el significado de varios términos comunes: ciencias de la decisión, teoría de la decisión, análisis de decisiones, toma estructurada de decisiones y herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones. La aplicación de las ciencias de la decisión no tiene que ser compleja ni debe llevar mucho tiempo; de hecho, todo comienza con saber cómo pensar detenidamente en los componentes de una decisión mediante el análisis de decisiones (es decir, definir el problema, producir objetivos, desarrollar alternativas, estimar consecuencias y realizar compensaciones). Lo anterior se logra de mejor manera mediante la aplicación de una estrategia prototipos rápidos. En cada paso, las herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones pueden proporcionar visión y claridad adicionales, mientras que los marcos de apoyo para las decisiones (p.ej.: gestión de amenazas prioritarias y planeación sistemática de la conservación) pueden asistir en la navegación de los diferentes pasos de un análisis de decisiones para contextos particulares. Resumimos los marcos de trabajo y las herramientas más importantes de apoyo para las decisiones y describimos el paso, y el contexto, del análisis de decisiones para el que es más útil aplicarlos. Nuestra introducción a las ciencias de la decisión apoyará en la contextualización de las estrategias actuales y los nuevos desarrollos, y ayudarán al órgano decisorio a comenzar a aplicar estas ciencias en los problemas de conservación.

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs.

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.

Identificación de Oportunidades de Gestión para Combatir las Amenazas Climáticas, Marinas y Terrestres en los Arrecifes de Coral Menos Expuestos al Clima Resumen La conservación de los arrecifes de coral es de suma importancia para mantener la biodiversidad marina y para sostener el medio de vida en muchas comunidades costeras. El cambio climático es una amenaza mundial para los arrecifes de coral; aun así, los investigadores han identificado un portafolio de arrecifes de coral (unidades bioclimáticas[UBCs]) que se encuentran relativamente menos expuestos a los impactos climáticos y están conectados a otros sistemas arrecifales. Estos arrecifes proporcionan una oportunidad proactiva de asegurar un futuro a largo plazo para los arrecifes de coral frente al cambio climático. Para ayudar a guiar los esfuerzos locales de manejo, cuantificamos el impacto humano acumulativo (IHA) sobre los ambientes marinos a partir de las presiones climáticas, marinas y terrestres (del 2008 al 2013) en las UBCs y en los países encargados del manejo de estas. Además, creamos un índice de manejo con base en las medidas y políticas comunes de gestión para cada fuente de presión (clima, ambiente marino, suelo) para identificar la intención y el compromiso de cada país para manejar de manera efectiva estas presiones. Veintidós países (79%) tuvieron incrementos en el IHA entre 2008 y 2013. Las presiones por el cambio climático tuvieron la contribución proporcional más alta al IHA en todos los arrecifes y en todos los países excepto uno (Singapur), pero 18 UBCs (35%) y nueve países que cuentan con UBCs (32%) tuvieron impactos terrestres y marinos relativamente altos. Hubo una relación positiva significativa entre el impacto climático y el índice de manejo climático entre los países (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), lo que potencialmente significa que los países con un mayor impacto climático están más comprometidos con su manejo. Sin embargo, esta tendencia estuvo impulsada por las intenciones de manejo climático en Fiyi y en Bangladesh. Nuestros resultados pueden usarse para orientar los análisis a fina escala, las políticas nacionales y las decisiones locales de manejo en el futuro. Nuestros índices de manejo también revelan áreas en donde se pueden mejorar los componentes gestores. El manejo rentable de las presiones locales (p. ej.: la pesca, los nutrientes) dentro de las UBCs es esencial para construir un futuro preparado climáticamente que beneficie a los arrecifes y a las personas.

Anthropogenic pressures and life history predict trajectories of seagrass meadow extent at a global scale.

Seagrass meadows are threatened by multiple pressures, jeopardizing the many benefits they provide to humanity and biodiversity, including climate regulation and food provision through fisheries production. Conservation of seagrass requires identification of the main pressures contributing to loss and the regions most at risk of ongoing loss. Here, we model trajectories of seagrass change at the global scale and show they are related to multiple anthropogenic pressures but that trajectories vary widely with seagrass life-history strategies. Rapidly declining trajectories of seagrass meadow extent (>25% loss from 2000 to 2010) were most strongly associated with high pressures from destructive demersal fishing and poor water quality. Conversely, seagrass meadow extent was more likely to be increasing when these two pressures were low. Meadows dominated by seagrasses with persistent life-history strategies tended to have slowly changing or stable trajectories, while those with opportunistic species were more variable, with a higher probability of either rapidly declining or rapidly increasing. Global predictions of regions most at risk for decline show high-risk areas in Europe, North America, Japan, and southeast Asia, including places where comprehensive long-term monitoring data are lacking. Our results highlight where seagrass loss may be occurring unnoticed and where urgent conservation interventions are required to reverse loss and sustain their essential services.

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information.

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.

Marxan es la herramienta de apoyo a las decisiones que más comúnmente se usa para orientar el diseño de los sistemas de áreas protegidas. La versión original de Marxan no considera el riesgo y la incertidumbre asociados con los procesos amenazantes que afectan a las áreas protegidas, incluyendo la incertidumbre sobre la ubicación y la condición de las poblaciones de las especies y su hábitat ahora y en el futuro. Describimos y analizamos la funcionalidad de una versión modificada de Marxan: Marxan con Probabilidad. Este software considera explícitamente cuatro tipos de incertidumbre: probabilidad de que una característica exista en un lugar en particular (estimada con base en los modelos de distribución de especies o con modelos de población espacialmente explícitos); probabilidad de que las características de un sitio se pierdan en el futuro debido a un proceso amenazante, como el cambio climático, las catástrofes naturales y las intervenciones humanas descontroladas; probabilidad de que una característica existirá en el futuro debido a los procesos naturales de sucesión; como los incendios o las inundaciones; y probabilidad de que una característica exista pero haya sido degradada por los procesos amenazantes, como la sobrepesca y la contaminación, y por lo tanto no puede contribuir a los objetivos de conservación. Sintetizamos los resultados de cinco estudios que ilustraron cómo cada tipo de incertidumbre puede usarse para orientar el diseño del área protegida. Si hubiera incertidumbre en la distribución de la especie o de su hábitat, los usuarios podrían maximizar la posibilidad de que estas características estuvieran representadas mediante la inclusión de Marxan con Probabilidad. De manera similar, si los procesos amenazantes estuvieran considerados, los usuarios minimizarían la posibilidad de que se pierda la especie o degrade el hábitat usando Marxan con Probabilidad. Marxan con Probabilidad abre nuevas vías importantes para la investigación sobre la planeación sistemática de la conservación y su aplicación por parte de las agencias.

Artificial Intelligence Meets Citizen Science to Supercharge Ecological Monitoring.

The development and uptake of citizen science and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for ecological monitoring is increasing rapidly. Citizen science and AI allow scientists to create and process larger volumes of data than possible with conventional methods. However, managers of large ecological monitoring projects have little guidance on whether citizen science, AI, or both, best suit their resource capacity and objectives. To highlight the benefits of integrating the two techniques and guide future implementation by managers, we explore the opportunities, challenges, and complementarities of using citizen science and AI for ecological monitoring. We identify project attributes to consider when implementing these techniques and suggest that financial resources, engagement, participant training, technical expertise, and subject charisma and identification are important project considerations. Ultimately, we highlight that integration can supercharge outcomes for ecological monitoring, enhancing cost-efficiency, accuracy, and multi-sector engagement.

A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications.

Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.

Cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce bycatch threats to cetaceans identified using return-on-investment analysis.

Globally, fisheries bycatch threatens the survival of many whale and dolphin species. Strategies for reducing bycatch can be expensive. Management is inclined to prioritize investment in actions that are inexpensive, but these may not be the most effective. We used an economic tool, return-on-investment, to identify cost-effective measures to reduce cetacean bycatch in the trawl, net, and line fisheries of Australia. We examined 3 management actions: spatial closures, acoustic deterrents, and gear modifications. We compared an approach for which the primary goal was to reduce the cost of bycatch reduction to fisheries with an approach that aims solely to protect whale and dolphin species. Based on cost-effectiveness and at a fine spatial resolution, we identified the management strategies across Australia that most effectively abated dolphin and whale bycatch. Although trawl-net modifications were the cheapest strategy overall, there were many locations where spatial closures were the most cost-effective solution, despite their high costs to fisheries, due to their effectiveness in reducing all fisheries interactions. Our method can be used to delineate strategies to reduce bycatch threats to mobile marine species across diverse fisheries at relevant spatial scales to improve conservation outcomes.

Estrategias Rentables de Migración para Reducir las Amenazas que Presenta la Pesca Accesoria para los Cetáceos Identificadas con Análisis de Rendimiento de Inversión Resumen Las pesquerías amenazan la supervivencia de muchas especies de ballenas y delfines a nivel mundial. Las estrategias para reducir la pesca accesoria pueden ser costosas. El manejo está inclinado hacia la priorización de la inversión para acciones que no son costosas, pero éstas pueden no ser las más efectivas. Usamos una herramienta económica, el rendimiento de inversión, para identificar medidas rentables que reduzcan la captura accesoria de cetáceos en las pesquerías de arrastre, de red y de sedal en Australia. Examinamos tres acciones de manejo: cierres espaciales, frenos sonoros y modificaciones al equipo de pesca. Comparamos una estrategia cuyo objetivo primario era la reducción del costo de la disminución de la pesca accesoria con las pesquerías que poseen estrategias que buscan solamente proteger a las especies de ballenas y delfines. Con base en la rentabilidad y a una resolución espacial detallada, identificamos las estrategias de manejo en Australia que amainan con mayor eficiencia la pesca accesoria de ballenas y delfines. Aunque la modificación de las redes de arrastre fue la estrategia más rentable de todas, hubo muchas localidades en donde los cierres espaciales fueron la solución más rentable. Esto a pesar del alto costo que representan para las pesquerías debido a su efectividad para reducir todas las interacciones de la pesquería. Nuestro método puede usarse para delinear estrategias que reducen las amenazas de la pesca accesoria para las especies marinas móviles a través de diversas pesquerías a escalas espaciales relevantes para mejorar los resultados de la conservación.

The Role of Vegetated Coastal Wetlands for Marine Megafauna Conservation.

Habitat loss is accelerating a global extinction crisis. Conservation requires understanding links between species and habitats. Emerging research is revealing important associations between vegetated coastal wetlands and marine megafauna, such as cetaceans, sea turtles, and sharks. But these links have not been reviewed and the importance of these globally declining habitats is undervalued. Here, we identify associations for 102 marine megafauna species that utilize these habitats, increasing the number of species with associations based on current International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) species assessments by 59% to 174, accounting for over 13% of all marine megafauna. We conclude that coastal wetlands require greater protection to support marine megafauna, and present a simple, effective framework to improve the inclusion of habitat associations within species assessments.

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change.

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

A decision tree for assessing the risks and benefits of publishing biodiversity data.

Inadequate information on the geographical distribution of biodiversity hampers decision-making for conservation. Major efforts are underway to fill knowledge gaps, but there are increasing concerns that publishing the locations of species is dangerous, particularly for species at risk of exploitation. While we recognize that well-informed control of location data for highly sensitive taxa is necessary to avoid risks, such as poaching or habitat disturbance by recreational visitors, we argue that ignoring the benefits of sharing biodiversity data could unnecessarily obstruct conservation efforts for species and locations with low risks of exploitation. We provide a decision tree protocol for scientists that systematically considers both the risks of exploitation and potential benefits of increased conservation activities. Our protocol helps scientists assess the impacts of publishing biodiversity data and aims to enhance conservation opportunities, promote community engagement and reduce duplication of survey efforts.

Simple rules can guide whether land- or ocean-based conservation will best benefit marine ecosystems.

Coastal marine ecosystems can be managed by actions undertaken both on the land and in the ocean. Quantifying and comparing the costs and benefits of actions in both realms is therefore necessary for efficient management. Here, we quantify the link between terrestrial sediment runoff and a downstream coastal marine ecosystem and contrast the cost-effectiveness of marine- and land-based conservation actions. We use a dynamic land- and sea-scape model to determine whether limited funds should be directed to 1 of 4 alternative conservation actions-protection on land, protection in the ocean, restoration on land, or restoration in the ocean-to maximise the extent of light-dependent marine benthic habitats across decadal timescales. We apply the model to a case study for a seagrass meadow in Australia. We find that marine restoration is the most cost-effective action over decadal timescales in this system, based on a conservative estimate of the rate at which seagrass can expand into a new habitat. The optimal decision will vary in different social-ecological contexts, but some basic information can guide optimal investments to counteract land- and ocean-based stressors: (1) marine restoration should be prioritised if the rates of marine ecosystem decline and expansion are similar and low; (2) marine protection should take precedence if the rate of marine ecosystem decline is high or if the adjacent catchment is relatively intact and has a low rate of vegetation decline; (3) land-based actions are optimal when the ratio of marine ecosystem expansion to decline is greater than 1:1.4, with terrestrial restoration typically the most cost-effective action; and (4) land protection should be prioritised if the catchment is relatively intact but the rate of vegetation decline is high. These rules of thumb illustrate how cost-effective conservation outcomes for connected land-ocean systems can proceed without complex modelling.

Tracing the influence of land-use change on water quality and coral reefs using a Bayesian model.

Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world's coral reef regions that may have severe water quality issues. Here we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that uses freely available satellite data to infer the connection between land-uses in catchments and water clarity in coastal oceans. We apply the model to estimate the influence of land-use change on water clarity in Fiji. We tested the model's predictions against underwater surveys, finding that predictions of poor water quality are consistent with observations of high siltation and low coverage of sediment-sensitive coral genera. The model thus provides a means to link land-use change to declines in coastal water quality.

Trade-offs between data resolution, accuracy, and cost when choosing information to plan reserves for coral reef ecosystems.

Conservation planners must reconcile trade-offs associated with using biodiversity data of differing qualities to make decisions. Coarse habitat classifications are commonly used as surrogates to design marine reserve networks when fine-scale biodiversity data are incomplete or unavailable. Although finely-classified habitat maps provide more detail, they may have more misclassification errors, a common problem when remotely-sensed imagery is used. Despite these issues, planners rarely consider the effects of errors when choosing data for spatially explicit conservation prioritizations. Here we evaluate trade-offs between accuracy and resolution of hierarchical coral reef habitat data (geomorphology and benthic substrate) derived from remote sensing, in spatial planning for Kubulau District, Fiji. For both, we use accuracy information describing the probability that a mapped habitat classification is correct to design marine reserve networks that achieve habitat conservation targets, and demonstrate inadequacies of using habitat maps without accuracy data. We show that using more detailed habitat information ensures better representation of biogenic habitats (i.e. coral and seagrass), but leads to larger and more costly reserves, because these data have more misclassification errors, and are also more expensive to obtain. Reduced impacts on fishers are possible using coarsely-classified data, which are also more cost-effective for planning reserves if we account for data collection costs, but using these data may under-represent reef habitats that are important for fisheries and biodiversity, due to the maps low thematic resolution. Finally, we show that explicitly accounting for accuracy information in decisions maximizes the chance of successful conservation outcomes by reducing the risk of missing conservation representation targets, particularly when using finely classified data.

The value of using feasibility models in systematic conservation planning to predict landholder management uptake.

Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple-use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders' willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders' decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best-supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost-effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost-effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost-efficient and effective manner.