Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models.

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water's indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water's spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human-natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society's institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.

Geomorphic and ecological disturbance and recovery from two small dams and their removal.

Dams are known to impact river channels and ecosystems, both during their lifetime and in their decommissioning. In this study, we applied a before-after-control-impact design associated with two small dam removals to investigate abiotic and biotic recovery trajectories from both the elimination of the press disturbance associated with the presence of dams and the introduction of a pulse disturbance associated with removal of dams. The two case studies represent different geomorphic and ecological conditions that we expected to represent low and high sensitivities to the pulse disturbance of dam removal: the 4 m tall, gravel-filled Brownsville Dam on the wadeable Calapooia River and the 12.5 m tall, sand and gravel-filled Savage Rapids Dam on the largely non-wadeable Rogue River. We evaluated both geomorphic and ecological responses annually for two years post removal, and asked if functional traits of the macroinvertebrate assemblages provided more persistent signals of ecological disturbance than taxonomically defined assemblages over the period of study. Results indicate that: 1) the presence of the dams constituted a strong ecological press disturbance to the near-downstream reaches on both rivers, despite the fact that both rivers passed unregulated flow and sediment during the high flow season; 2) ecological recovery from this press disturbance occurred within the year following the restoration action of dam removal, whereas signals of geomorphic disturbance from the pulse of released sediment persisted two years post-removal, and 3) the strength of the press disturbance and the rapid ecological recovery were detected regardless of whether recovery was assessed by taxonomic or functional assemblages and for both case studies, in spite of their different geomorphic settings.

Assessing the influence of Environmental Impact Assessments on science and policy: an analysis of the Three Gorges Project.

The need to understand and minimize negative environmental outcomes associated with large dams has both contributed to and benefited from the introduction and subsequent improvements in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. However, several limitations in the EIA process remain, including those associated with the uncertainty and significance of impact projections. These limitations are directly related to the feedback between science and policy, with information gaps in scientific understanding discovered through the EIA process contributing valuable recommendations on critical focus areas for prioritizing and funding research within the fields of ecological conservation and river engineering. This paper presents an analysis of the EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China as a case study for evaluating this feedback between the EIA and science and policy. For one of the best-studied public development projects in the world, this paper presents an investigation into whether patterns exist between the scientific interest (via number of publications) in environmental impacts and (a) the identification of impacts as uncertain or priority by the EIA, (b) decisions or political events associated with the dam, and (c) impact type. This analysis includes the compilation of literature on TGP, characterization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP through a hierarchy of impacts, coding of EIA impacts as "uncertain" impacts that require additional study and "priority" impacts that have particularly high significance, mapping of an event chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and decisions about TGP as "events" that could influence the focus and intensity of scientific investigation, and analysis of the number of publications by impact type and order within the impact hierarchy. From these analyses, it appears that the availability and consistency of scientific information limit the accuracy of environmental impact projections. These analyses also suggest a lack of direct feedback between the EIA process and emerging science, as indicated by the failure of literature to focus on issues related to the design and management of TGP, ultimately challenging the environmental sustainability of the project. While the EIA process has enormous potential for improving both the basic sciences and the planning and sustainability of hydrodevelopment, important institutional changes need to occur for this potential to be realized. This paper concludes with recommendations about those institutional changes needed to improve the feedback between the science and policy, and ultimately the environmental sustainability, of large dams.

Modeling the costs and benefits of dam construction from a multidisciplinary perspective.

Although the benefits of dam construction are numerous, particularly in the context of climate change and growing global demand for electricity, recent experience has shown that many dams have serious negative environmental, human, and political consequences. Despite an extensive literature documenting the benefits and costs of dams from a single disciplinary perspective, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the distribution of biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical implications of dams. To meet the simultaneous demands for water, energy, and environmental protection well into the future, a broader view of dams is needed. We thus propose a new tool for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of dam construction based on multi-objective planning techniques. The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is designed to integrate biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical perspectives into a single cost/benefit analysis of dam construction. Each of 27 different impacts of dam construction is evaluated both objectively (e.g., flood protection, as measured by RYI years) and subjectively (i.e., the valuation of said flood protection) by a team of decision-makers. By providing a visual representation of the various costs and benefits associated with two or more dams, the IDAM tool allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the decision process about dams more informed and more transparent. For all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an important evolutionary step in dam evaluation.