EAACI guidelines on environmental science for allergy and asthma: The impact of short-term exposure to outdoor air pollutants on asthma-related outcomes and recommendations for mitigation measures.

The EAACI Guidelines on the impact of short-term exposure to outdoor pollutants on asthma-related outcomes provide recommendations for prevention, patient care and mitigation in a framework supporting rational decisions for healthcare professionals and patients to individualize and improve asthma management and for policymakers and regulators as an evidence-informed reference to help setting legally binding standards and goals for outdoor air quality at international, national and local levels. The Guideline was developed using the GRADE approach and evaluated outdoor pollutants referenced in the current Air Quality Guideline of the World Health Organization as single or mixed pollutants and outdoor pesticides. Short-term exposure to all pollutants evaluated increases the risk of asthma-related adverse outcomes, especially hospital admissions and emergency department visits (moderate certainty of evidence at specific lag days). There is limited evidence for the impact of traffic-related air pollution and outdoor pesticides exposure as well as for the interventions to reduce emissions. Due to the quality of evidence, conditional recommendations were formulated for all pollutants and for the interventions reducing outdoor air pollution. Asthma management counselled by the current EAACI guidelines can improve asthma-related outcomes but global measures for clean air are needed to achieve significant impact.

Atmospheric isoprene measurements reveal larger-than-expected Southern Ocean emissions.

Isoprene is a key trace component of the atmosphere emitted by vegetation and other organisms. It is highly reactive and can impact atmospheric composition and climate by affecting the greenhouse gases ozone and methane and secondary organic aerosol formation. Marine fluxes are poorly constrained due to the paucity of long-term measurements; this in turn limits our understanding of isoprene cycling in the ocean. Here we present the analysis of isoprene concentrations in the atmosphere measured across the Southern Ocean over 4 months in the summertime. Some of the highest concentrations ( >500 ppt) originated from the marginal ice zone in the Ross and Amundsen seas, indicating the marginal ice zone is a significant source of isoprene at high latitudes. Using the United Kingdom Earth System Model we show that current estimates of sea-to-air isoprene fluxes underestimate observed isoprene by a factor >20. A daytime source of isoprene is required to reconcile models with observations. The model presented here suggests such an increase in isoprene emissions would lead to >8% decrease in the hydroxyl radical in regions of the Southern Ocean, with implications for our understanding of atmospheric oxidation and composition in remote environments, often used as proxies for the pre-industrial atmosphere.

Machine learning methods for low-cost pollen monitoring - Model optimisation and interpretability.

Pollen is a major issue globally, causing as much as 40 % of the population to suffer from hay fever and other allergic conditions. Current techniques for monitoring pollen are either laborious and slow, or expensive, thus alternative methods are needed to provide timely and more localised information on airborne pollen concentrations. We have demonstrated previously that low-cost Optical Particle Counter (OPC) sensors can be used to estimate pollen concentrations when machine learning methods are used to process the data and learn the relationships between OPC output data and conventionally measured pollen concentrations. This study demonstrates how methodical hyperparameter tuning can be employed to significantly improve model performance. We present the results of a range of models based on tuned hyperparameter configurations trained to predict Poaceae (Barnhart), Quercus (L.), Betula (L.), Pinus (L.) and total pollen concentrations. The results achieved here are a significant improvement on results we previously reported: the average R2 scores for the total pollen models have at least doubled compared to using previous parameter settings. Furthermore, we employ the explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) technique, SHAP, to interpret the models and understand how each of the input features (i.e. particle sizes) affect the estimated output concentration for each pollen type. In particular, we found that Quercus pollen has a strong positive correlation with particles of optical diameter 1.7-2.3 µm, which distinguishes it from other pollen types such as Poaceae and may suggest that type-specific subpollen particles are present in this size range. There is much further work to be done, especially in training and testing models on data obtained across different environments to evaluate the extent of generalisability. Nevertheless, this work demonstrates the potential this method can offer for low-cost monitoring of pollen and the valuable insight we can gain from what the model has learned.

Designing an automatic pollen monitoring network for direct usage of observations to reconstruct the concentration fields.

We consider several approaches to a design of a regional-to-continent-scale automatic pollen monitoring network in Europe. Practical challenges related to the arrangement of such a network limit the range of possible solutions. A hierarchical network is discussed, highlighting the necessity of a few reference sites that follow an extended observations protocol and have corresponding capabilities. Several theoretically rigorous approaches to a network design have been developed so far. However, before starting the process, a network purpose, a criterion of its performance, and a concept of the data usage should be formalized. For atmospheric composition monitoring, developments follow one of the two concepts: a network for direct representation of concentration fields and a network for model-based data assimilation, inverse problem solution, and forecasting. The current paper demonstrates the first approach, whereas the inverse problems are considered in a follow-up paper. We discuss the approaches for the network design from theoretical and practical standpoints, formulate criteria for the network optimality, and consider practical constraints for an automatic pollen network. An application of the methodology is demonstrated for a prominent example of Germany's pollen monitoring network. The multi-step method includes (i) the network representativeness and (ii) redundancy evaluation followed by (iii) fidelity evaluation and improvement using synthetic data.

Is exposure to pollen a risk factor for moderate and severe asthma exacerbations?

Limited number of studies have focused on the impact of pollen exposure on asthma. As a part of the EAACI Guidelines on Environment Science, this first systematic review on the relationship of pollen exposure to asthma exacerbations aimed to bridge this knowledge gap in view of implementing recommendations of prevention. We searched electronic iPubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases using a set of MeSH terms and related synonyms and identified 73 eligible studies that were included for systemic review. When possible, meta-analyses were conducted. Overall meta-analysis suggests that outdoor pollen exposure may have an effect on asthma exacerbation, but caution is needed due to the low number of studies and their heterogeneity. The strongest associations were found between asthma attacks, asthma-related ED admissions or hospitalizations, and an increase in grass pollen concentration in the previous 2-day overall in children aged less than 18 years of age. Tree pollen may increase asthma-related ED visits or admissions lagged up to 7-day overall in individuals younger than 18 years. Rare data show that among subjects under 18 years of age, an exposure to grass pollen lagged up to 3 days may lower lung function. Further research considering effect modifiers of pollen sensitization, hay fever, asthma, air pollution, green spaces, and pre-existing medications is urgently warranted to better evaluate the impacts of pollen on asthma exacerbation. Preventive measures in relation to pollen exposure should be integrated in asthma control as pollen increase continues due to climate change.

Constructing a pollen proxy from low-cost Optical Particle Counter (OPC) data processed with Neural Networks and Random Forests.

Pollen allergies affect a significant proportion of the global population, and this is expected to worsen in years to come. There is demand for the development of automated pollen monitoring systems. Low-cost Optical Particle Counters (OPCs) measure particulate matter and have attractive advantages of real-time high time resolution data and affordable costs. This study asks whether low-cost OPC sensors can be used for meaningful monitoring of airborne pollen. We employ a variety of methods, including supervised machine learning techniques, to construct pollen proxies from hourly-average OPC data and evaluate their performance, holding out 40 % of observations to test the proxies. The most successful methods are supervised machine learning Neural Network (NN) and Random Forest (RF) methods, trained from pollen concentrations collected from a Hirst-type sampler. These perform significantly better than using a simple particle size-filtered proxy or a Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) source apportionment pollen proxy. Twelve NN and RF models were developed to construct a pollen proxy, each varying by model type, input features and target variable. The results show that such models can construct useful information on pollen from OPC data. The best metrics achieved (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.85, coefficient of determination = 0.67) were for the NN model constructing a Poaceae (grass) pollen proxy, based on particle size information, temperature, and relative humidity. Ability to distinguish high pollen events was evaluated using F1 Scores, a score reflecting the fraction of true positives with respect to false positives and false negatives, with promising results (F1 ≤ 0.83). Model-constructed proxies demonstrated the ability to follow monthly and diurnal trends in pollen. We discuss the suitability of OPCs for monitoring pollen and offer advice for future progress. We demonstrate an attractive alternative for automated pollen monitoring that could provide valuable and timely information to the benefit of pollen allergy sufferers.

Alternaria spore exposure in Bavaria, Germany, measured using artificial intelligence algorithms in a network of BAA500 automatic pollen monitors.

Although Alternaria spores are well-known allergenic fungal spores, automatic bioaerosol recognition systems have not been trained to recognize these particles until now. Here we report the development of a new algorithm able to classify Alternaria spores with BAA500 automatic bioaerosol monitors. The best validation score was obtained when the model was trained on both data from the original dataset and artificially generated images, with a validation unweighted mean Intersection over Union (IoU), also called Jaccard Index, of 0.95. Data augmentation techniques were applied to the training set. While some particles were not recognized (false negatives), false positives were few. The results correlated well with manual counts (mean of four Hirst-type traps), with R2 = 0.78. Counts from BAA500 were 1.92 times lower than with Hirst-type traps. The algorithm was then used to re-analyze the historical automatic pollen monitoring network (ePIN) dataset (2018-2022), which lacked Alternaria spore counts. Re-analysis of past data showed that Alternaria spore exposure in Bavaria was very variable, with the highest counts in the North (Marktheidenfeld, 154 m a.s.l.), and the lowest values close to the mountains in the South (Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 735 m a.s.l.). This approach shows that in our network future algorithms can be run on past datasets. Over time, the use of different algorithms could lead to misinterpretations as stemming from climate change or other phenological causes. Our approach enables consistent, homogeneous treatment of long-term series, thus preventing variability in particle counts owing to changes in the algorithms.

Towards European automatic bioaerosol monitoring: Comparison of 9 automatic pollen observational instruments with classic Hirst-type traps.

To benefit allergy patients and the medical practitioners, pollen information should be available in both a reliable and timely manner; the latter is only recently possible due to automatic monitoring. To evaluate the performance of all currently available automatic instruments, an international intercomparison campaign was jointly organised by the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme and the ADOPT COST Action in Munich, Germany (March-July 2021). The automatic systems (hardware plus identification algorithms) were compared with manual Hirst-type traps. Measurements were aggregated into 3-hourly or daily values to allow comparison across all devices. We report results for total pollen as well as for Betula, Fraxinus, Poaceae, and Quercus, for all instruments that provided these data. The results for daily averages compared better with Hirst observations than the 3-hourly values. For total pollen, there was a considerable spread among systems, with some reaching R2 > 0.6 (3 h) and R2 > 0.75 (daily) compared with Hirst-type traps, whilst other systems were not suitable to sample total pollen efficiently (R2 < 0.3). For individual pollen types, results similar to the Hirst were frequently shown by a small group of systems. For Betula, almost all systems performed well (R2 > 0.75 for 9 systems for 3-hourly data). Results for Fraxinus and Quercus were not as good for most systems, while for Poaceae (with some exceptions), the performance was weakest. For all pollen types and for most measurement systems, false positive classifications were observed outside of the main pollen season. Different algorithms applied to the same device also showed different results, highlighting the importance of this aspect of the measurement system. Overall, given the 30 % error on daily concentrations that is currently accepted for Hirst-type traps, several automatic systems are currently capable of being used operationally to provide real-time observations at high temporal resolutions. They provide distinct advantages compared to the manual Hirst-type measurements.

The need for Pan-European automatic pollen and fungal spore monitoring: A stakeholder workshop position paper.

BACKGROUND: Information about airborne pollen concentrations is required by a range of end users, particularly from the health sector who use both observations and forecasts to diagnose and treat allergic patients. Manual methods are the standard for such measurements but, despite the range of pollen taxa that can be identified, these techniques suffer from a range of drawbacks. This includes being available at low temporal resolution (usually daily averages) and with a delay (usually 3-9 days from the measurement). Recent technological developments have made possible automatic pollen measurements, which are available at high temporal resolution and in real time, although currently only scattered in a few locations across Europe. MATERIALS & METHODS: To promote the development of an extensive network across Europe and to ensure that this network will respond to end user needs, a stakeholder workshop was organised under the auspices of the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme. Participants discussed requirements for the groups they represented, ranging from the need for information at various spatial scales, at high temporal resolution, and for targeted services to be developed. RESULTS: The provision of real-time information is likely to lead to a notable decrease in the direct and indirect health costs associated with allergy in Europe, currently estimated between €50-150 billion/year.1 DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: A European measurement network to meet end user requirements would thus more than pay for itself in terms of potential annual savings and provide significant impetus to research across a range of disciplines from climate science and public health to agriculture and environmental management.

Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry-climate model.

Previous multi-model intercomparisons have shown that chemistry-climate models exhibit significant biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We investigate annual-mean tropospheric column ozone in 15 models participating in the SPARC/IGAC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate/International Global Atmospheric Chemistry) Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These models exhibit a positive bias, on average, of up to 40-50% in the Northern Hemisphere compared with observations derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder (OMI/MLS), and a negative bias of up to ~30% in the Southern Hemisphere. SOCOLv3.0 (version 3 of the Solar-Climate Ozone Links CCM), which participated in CCMI, simulates global-mean tropospheric ozone columns of 40.2 DU - approximately 33% larger than the CCMI multi-model mean. Here we introduce an updated version of SOCOLv3.0, "SOCOLv3.1", which includes an improved treatment of ozone sink processes, and results in a reduction in the tropospheric column ozone bias of up to 8 DU, mostly due to the inclusion of N2O5 hydrolysis on tropospheric aerosols. As a result of these developments, tropospheric column ozone amounts simulated by SOCOLv3.1 are comparable with several other CCMI models. We apply Gaussian process emulation and sensitivity analysis to understand the remaining ozone bias in SOCOLv3.1. This shows that ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide, methane and other volatile organic compounds) are responsible for more than 90% of the variance in tropospheric ozone. However, it may not be the emissions inventories themselves that result in the bias, but how the emissions are handled in SOCOLv3.1, and we discuss this in the wider context of the other CCMI models. Given that the emissions data set to be used for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project includes approximately 20% more NOx than the data set used for CCMI, further work is urgently needed to address the challenges of simulating sub-grid processes of importance to tropospheric ozone in the current generation of chemistry-climate models.

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives.

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.