Sex differences in the prognostic role of achieving target doses of heart failure medications: Data from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry.

AIMS: Guidelines recommend target doses (TD) of heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) medications regardless of sex. Differences in pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics may explain heterogeneity in treatment response, adverse reactions, and tolerability issues across sexes. The aim of this study was to explore sex-based differences in the association between TD achievement and mortality/morbidity in HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with HFrEF and HF duration ≥6 months registered in the Swedish HF Registry between May 2000 and December 2020 (follow-up until December 2021) were analysed. Treatments of interest were renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASI) or angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI), and beta-blockers. Multivariable Cox regression models were performed to explore the risk of cardiovascular mortality or hospitalization for HF across dose categories in females versus males. A total of 17 912 patients were analysed (median age 77.0 years, interquartile range [IQR] 70.0-83.0), 29% were female. Over a median follow-up of 1.33 years (IQR 0.29-3.22), for RASI/ARNI there was no significant difference in outcome for females achieving 50-99% versus 100% of TD (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.83-1.03), whereas males showed a gradual lowering in risk together with the achievement of higher % of TD (p-interaction = 0.030). For beta-blockers the achievement of TD was associated with the lowest risk of outcome regardless of sex. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that females and males might differently benefit from the same dose of RASI/ARNI, and do represent a general call for randomized controlled trials to consider sex-specific up-titration schemes when testing HFrEF treatments in need of up-titration.

Sex differences in the intensity of statin prescriptions at initiation in a primary care setting.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for the prevention and management of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) provide similar recommendations for the use of statins in both women and men. In this study, we assessed sex differences in the intensity of statin prescriptions at initiation and in the achievement of treatment targets, among individuals without and with CVD, in a primary care setting. METHODS: Electronic health record data from statin users were extracted from the PHARMO Data Network. Poisson regressions were used to investigate sex differences in statin intensity and in the achievement of treatment targets. Analyses were stratified by age group, disease status and/or CVD risk category. RESULTS: We included 82 714 individuals (46% women) aged 40-99 years old. In both sexes, the proportion of individuals with a dispensed prescription for high-intensity statin at initiation increased between 2011 and 2020. Women were less likely to be prescribed high-intensity statins as compared with men, both in the subgroups without a history of CVD (risk ratio (RR) 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.75)) and with CVD (RR 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74 to 0.81)). Women were less likely than men to achieve target levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol following statin initiation in the subgroup without CVD (RR 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.00)) and with a history of CVD (RR 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89 to 0.98)). CONCLUSION: Compared with men, women were less likely to be prescribed high-intensity statins at initiation and to achieve treatment targets, both in people without and with a history of CVD, and independent of differences in other individual and clinical characteristics.

Sex Differences in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases in a Dutch Primary Care Setting.

Background: Sex differences in the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been shown, but the evidence is mixed and fragmented. In this study, we assessed sex differences in cardiovascular risk factors assessment, risk factor levels, treatment, and meeting of treatment targets, within a Dutch primary care setting. Methods: Data were obtained from individuals aged 40 to 70 years old, without prior CVD, registered during the entire year in 2018 at one of the 51 general practices participating in the Julius General Practitioner's Network (JGPN). History of CVD was defined based on the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). Linear and Poisson regressions were used to investigate sex differences in risk factor assessment, risk factor levels, treatment, and meeting of treatment targets. Results: We included 83,903 individuals (50% women). With the exception of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), all risk factors for CVD were more often measured in women than in men. Lipid measurements and body mass index values were higher in women, while blood pressure (BP) and HbA1c levels were higher in men, along with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels. Among individuals with elevated BP or cholesterol levels, no sex difference was observed in the prescription of antihypertensive medications (RR 1.00, 95% CI: 0.94-1.06) but women were less likely than men to receive lipid-lowering medications (RR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.95). Among treated individuals, women were more likely than men to meet adequate levels of blood pressure (RR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.09-1.25) and less likely to meet target levels of cholesterol (RR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83-0.98). Conclusion: While women were more likely to have their CVD risk factors measured, they were less likely to be prescribed lipid-lowering medications and to meet target levels. When treated, men were less likely to achieve adequate blood pressure control.

Embedding routine health care data in clinical trials: with great power comes great responsibility.

Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) are vital for medical progress. Unfortunately, 'traditional' RCTs are expensive and inherently slow. Moreover, their generalisability has been questioned. There is considerable overlap in routine health care data (RHCD) and trial-specific data. Therefore, integration of RHCD in an RCT has great potential, as it would reduce the effort and costs required to collect data, thereby overcoming some of the major downsides of a traditional RCT. However, use of RHCD comes with other challenges, such as privacy issues, as well as technical and practical barriers. Here, we give a current overview of related initiatives on national cardiovascular registries (Netherlands Heart Registration, Heart4Data), showcasing the interrelationships between and the relevance of the different registries for the practicing physician. We then discuss the benefits and limitations of RHCD use in the setting of a pragmatic RCT from a cardiovascular perspective, illustrated by a case study in heart failure.

Does Heterogeneity Exist in Treatment Associations With Renin-Angiotensin-System Inhibitors or Beta-blockers According to Phenotype Clusters in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction?

BACKGROUND: We explored the association between use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and beta-blockers, with mortality/morbidity in 5 previously identified clusters of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed 20,980 patients with HFpEF from the Swedish HF registry, phenotyped into young-low comorbidity burden (12%), atrial fibrillation-hypertensive (32%), older-atrial fibrillation (24%), obese-diabetic (15%), and a cardiorenal cluster (17%). In Cox proportional hazard models with inverse probability weighting, there was no heterogeneity in the association between renin-angiotensin system inhibitor use and cluster membership for any of the outcomes: cardiovascular (CV) mortality, all-cause mortality, HF hospitalisation, CV hospitalisation, or non-CV hospitalisation. In contrast, we found a statistical interaction between beta-blocker use and cluster membership for all-cause mortality (P = .03) and non-CV hospitalisation (P = .001). In the young-low comorbidity burden and atrial fibrillation-hypertensive cluster, beta-blocker use was associated with statistically significant lower all-cause mortality and non-CV hospitalisation and in the obese-diabetic cluster beta-blocker use was only associated with a statistically significant lower non-CV hospitalisation. The interaction between beta-blocker use and cluster membership for all-cause mortality could potentially be driven by patients with improved EF. However, patient numbers were diminished when excluding those with improved EF and the direction of the associations remained similar. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HFpEF, the association with all-cause mortality and non-CV hospitalisation was heterogeneous across clusters for beta-blockers. It remains to be elucidated how heterogeneity in HFpEF could influence personalized medicine and future clinical trial design.

Ideal cardiovascular health and cardiovascular related events: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to systematically review and quantitatively summarise the evidence on the association between Life Simple's 7 (LS7) and multiple cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). METHODS: EMBASE and PubMed were searched from January 2010 to March 2022 for observational studies that investigated the association between ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) with CVD or CMD outcomes in an adult population. Two reviewers independently selected studies according to the eligibility criteria, extracted data, and evaluated risk of bias. Data were analysed with a random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: This meta-analysis included 59 studies (1,881,382 participants). Participants with ideal CVH had a considerably lower risk of a variety of CVDs and CMDs as compared to those with poor CVH, varying from 40% lower risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR = 0.60 [95% CI 0.44-0.83]) to 82% lower risk for myocardial infarction (HR = 0.18 [95% CI 0.12-0.28]). Intermediate CVH was associated with 27%-57% lower risk in CVDs and CMDs compared to poor CVH, with the highest hazard for AF (HR = 0.73 [95% CI 0.59-0.91]), and the lowest hazard for peripheral arterial disease (HR = 0.43 [95% CI 0.30-0.60]). CONCLUSION: Ideal and moderate CVH were associated with a lower incidence of CVDs and CMDs than poor CVH. LS7 holds significant potential for promoting overall CVH and thereby contributing to the prevention of CVDs.

Healthy lifestyle is very important to prevent cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD), such as diabetes and kidney diseases. Therefore, in 2010, the American Heart Association introduced Life's Simple 7 (LS7), a scoring system using seven lifestyle factors to measure cardiovascular health in populations and these factors are diet, physical activity, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipids, blood sugar, and weight. In this review, we investigated the relationship between LS7 score and CVDs or CMDs. Higher LS7 score, meaning a healthier lifestyle score, was related to lower risks of CVDs. Promoting healthy lifestyle (higher LS7 score) could possibly lead to prevention of CVDs.

Multimorbidity in Heart Failure: Leveraging Cluster Analysis to Guide Tailored Treatment Strategies.

REVIEW PURPOSE: This review summarises key findings on treatment effects within phenotypical clusters of patients with heart failure (HF), making a distinction between patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). FINDINGS: Treatment response differed among clusters; ACE inhibitors were beneficial in all HFrEF phenotypes, while only some studies show similar beneficial prognostic effects in HFpEF patients. Beta-blockers had favourable effects in all HFrEF patients but not in HFpEF phenotypes and tended to worsen prognosis in older, cardiorenal patients. Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists had more favourable prognostic effects in young, obese males and metabolic HFpEF patients. While a phenotype-guided approach is a promising solution for individualised treatment strategies, there are several aspects that still require improvements before such an approach could be implemented in clinical practice. Stronger evidence from clinical trials and real-world data may assist in establishing a phenotype-guided treatment approach for patient with HF in the future.

Discovering Distinct Phenotypical Clusters in Heart Failure Across the Ejection Fraction Spectrum: a Systematic Review.

REVIEW PURPOSE: This systematic review aims to summarise clustering studies in heart failure (HF) and guide future clinical trial design and implementation in routine clinical practice. FINDINGS: 34 studies were identified (n = 19 in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)). There was significant heterogeneity invariables and techniques used. However, 149/165 described clusters could be assigned to one of nine phenotypes: 1) young, low comorbidity burden; 2) metabolic; 3) cardio-renal; 4) atrial fibrillation (AF); 5) elderly female AF; 6) hypertensive-comorbidity; 7) ischaemic-male; 8) valvular disease; and 9) devices. There was room for improvement on important methodological topics for all clustering studies such as external validation and transparency of the modelling process. The large overlap between the phenotypes of the clustering studies shows that clustering is a robust approach for discovering clinically distinct phenotypes. However, future studies should invest in a phenotype model that can be implemented in routine clinical practice and future clinical trial design. HF = heart failure, EF = ejection fraction, HFpEF = heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, HFrEF = heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, CKD = chronic kidney disease, AF = atrial fibrillation, IHD = ischaemic heart disease, CAD = coronary artery disease, ICD = implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, CRT = cardiac resynchronization therapy, NT-proBNP = N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide, BMI = Body Mass Index, COPD = Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Identifying distinct clinical clusters in heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction.

INTRODUCTION: Heart failure (HF) is a heterogeneous syndrome, and the specific sub-category HF with mildly reduced ejection fraction (EF) range (HFmrEF; 41-49% EF) is only recently recognised as a distinct entity. Cluster analysis can characterise heterogeneous patient populations and could serve as a stratification tool in clinical trials and for prognostication. The aim of this study was to identify clusters in HFmrEF and compare cluster prognosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Latent class analysis to cluster HFmrEF patients based on their characteristics was performed in the Swedish HF registry (n = 7316). Identified clusters were validated in a Dutch cross-sectional HF registry-based dataset CHECK-HF (n = 1536). In Sweden, mortality and hospitalisation across the clusters were compared using a Cox proportional hazard model, with a Fine-Gray sub-distribution for competing risks and adjustment for age and sex. Six clusters were discovered with the following prevalence and hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals (HR [95%CI]) vs. cluster 1: 1) low-comorbidity (17%, reference), 2) ischaemic-male (13%, HR 0.9 [95% CI 0.7-1.1]), 3) atrial fibrillation (20%, HR 1.5 [95% CI 1.2-1.9]), 4) device/wide QRS (9%, HR 2.7 [95% CI 2.2-3.4]), 5) metabolic (19%, HR 3.1 [95% CI 2.5-3.7]) and 6) cardio-renal phenotype (22%, HR 2.8 [95% CI 2.2-3.6]). The cluster model was robust between both datasets. CONCLUSION: We found robust clusters with potential clinical meaning and differences in mortality and hospitalisation. Our clustering model could be valuable as a clinical differentiation support and prognostic tool in clinical trial design.

Sex differences in the generalizability of randomized clinical trials in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

AIMS: In order to understand how sex differences impact the generalizability of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in patients with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), we sought to compare clinical characteristics and clinical outcomes between RCTs and HF observational registries stratified by sex. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from two HF registries and five HFrEF RCTs were used to create three subpopulations: one RCT population (n = 16 917; 21.7% females), registry patients eligible for RCT inclusion (n = 26 104; 31.8% females), and registry patients ineligible for RCT inclusion (n = 20 810; 30.2% females). Clinical endpoints included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and first HF hospitalization at 1 year. Males and females were equally eligible for trial enrolment (56.9% of females and 55.1% of males in the registries). One-year mortality rates were 5.6%, 14.0%, and 28.6% for females and 6.9%, 10.7%, and 24.6% for males in the RCT, RCT-eligible, and RCT-ineligible groups, respectively. After adjusting for 11 HF prognostic variables, RCT females showed higher survival compared to RCT-eligible females (standardized mortality ratio [SMR] 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.83), while RCT males showed higher adjusted mortality rates compared to RCT-eligible males (SMR 1.16; 95% CI 1.09-1.24). Similar results were also found for cardiovascular mortality (SMR 0.89; 95% CI 0.76-1.03 for females, SMR 1.43; 95% CI 1.33-1.53 for males). CONCLUSION: Generalizability of HFrEF RCTs differed substantially between the sexes, with females having lower trial participation and female trial participants having lower mortality rates compared to similar females in the registries, while males had higher than expected cardiovascular mortality rates in RCTs compared to similar males in registries.

Redefining clinical venous thromboembolism phenotypes: a novel approach using latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) are commonly classified by the presence or absence of provoking factors at the time of VTE to guide treatment decisions. This approach may not capture the heterogeneity of the disease and its prognosis. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate clinically important novel phenotypic clusters among patients with VTE without cancer and to explore their association with anticoagulant treatment and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Latent class analysis was performed with 18 baseline clinical variables in 3062 adult patients with VTE without active cancer participating in PREFER in VTE, a noninterventional disease registry. The derived latent classes were externally validated in a post hoc analysis of Hokusai-VTE (n = 6593), a randomized trial comparing edoxaban with warfarin. The associations between cluster membership and anticoagulant treatment, recurrent VTE, bleeding, and mortality after initial treatment were studied. RESULTS: The following 5 clusters were identified: young men cluster (n = 1126, 37%), young women cluster (n = 215, 7%), older people cluster (n = 1106, 36%), comorbidity cluster (n = 447, 15%), and history of venous thromboembolism cluster (n = 168, 5%). Patient characteristics varied by age, sex, medical history, and treatment patterns. Consistent clusters were evident on external validation. In Cox proportional hazard models, recurrence risk was lower in the young women cluster (hazard ratio [HR], 0.27; 95% CI, 0.12-0.61) compared with the comorbidity cluster, after adjusting for extended anticoagulation. The risk of bleeding was lower in young men, young women, and older people clusters (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.38-0.66; HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.11-0.46; and HR, 0.55; 95% CI 0.41-0.73, respectively). CONCLUSION: The heterogeneity of VTE cases extends beyond the distinction between provoked and unprovoked VTE.

Biomarker changes as surrogate endpoints in early-phase trials in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

AIMS: No biomarker has achieved widespread acceptance as a surrogate endpoint for early-phase heart failure (HF) trials. We assessed whether changes over time in a panel of plasma biomarkers were associated with subsequent morbidity/mortality in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1040 patients with HFrEF from the BIOSTAT-CHF cohort, we investigated the associations between changes in the plasma concentrations of 30 biomarkers, before (baseline) and after (9 months) attempted optimization of guideline-recommended therapy, on top of the BIOSTAT risk score and the subsequent risk of HF hospitalization/all-cause mortality using Cox regression models. C-statistics were calculated to assess discriminatory power of biomarker changes/month-nine assessment. Changes in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and WAP four-disulphide core domain protein HE4 (WAP-4C) were the only independent predictors of the outcome after adjusting for their baseline plasma concentration, 28 other biomarkers (both baseline and changes), and BIOSTAT risk score at baseline. When adjusting for month-nine rather than baseline biomarkers concentrations, only changes in NT-proBNP were independently associated with the outcome. The C-statistic of the model including the BIOSTAT risk score and NT-proBNP increased by 4% when changes were considered on top of baseline concentrations and by 1% when changes in NT-proBNP were considered on top of its month-nine concentrations and the BIOSTAT risk score. CONCLUSIONS: Among 30 relevant biomarkers, a change over time was significantly and independently associated with HF hospitalization/all-cause death only for NT-proBNP. Changes over time were modestly more prognostic than baseline or end-values alone. Changes in biomarkers should be further explored as potential surrogate endpoints in early phase HF trials.

Preventing heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association in collaboration with the European Association of Preventive Cardiology.

The heart failure epidemic is growing and its prevention, in order to reduce associated hospital readmission rates and its clinical and economic burden, is a key issue in modern cardiovascular medicine. The present position paper aims to provide practical evidence-based information to support the implementation of effective preventive measures. After reviewing the most common risk factors, an overview of the population attributable risks in different continents is presented, to identify potentially effective opportunities for prevention and to inform preventive strategies. Finally, potential interventions that have been proposed and have been shown to be effective in preventing heart failure are listed.

Preventing heart failure: a position paper of the Heart Failure Association in collaboration with the European Association of Preventive Cardiology.

The heart failure epidemic is growing and its prevention, in order to reduce associated hospital readmission rates and its clinical and economic burden, is a key issue in modern cardiovascular medicine. The present consensus document aims to provide practical evidence-based information to support the implementation of effective preventive measures. After reviewing the most common risk factors, an overview of the population attributable risks in different continents is presented, to identify potentially effective opportunities for prevention and to inform preventive strategies. Finally, potential interventions that have been proposed and have been shown to be effective in preventing HF are listed.

Generalizability of randomized controlled trials in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) trials have stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria, but limited data exist regarding generalizability of trials. We compared patient characteristics and outcomes between patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in trials and observational registries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual patient data for 16 922 patients from five randomized clinical trials and 46 914 patients from two HF registries were included. The registry patients were categorized into trial-eligible and non-eligible groups using the most commonly used inclusion and exclusion criteria. A total of 26 104 (56%) registry patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria. Unadjusted all-cause mortality rates at 1 year were lowest in the trial population (7%), followed by trial-eligible patients (12%) and trial-non-eligible registry patients (26%). After adjustment for age and sex, all-cause mortality rates were similar between trial participants and trial-eligible registry patients [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.03] but cardiovascular mortality was higher in trial participants (SMR 1.19; 1.12-1.27). After full case-mix adjustment, the SMR for cardiovascular mortality remained higher in the trials at 1.28 (1.20-1.37) compared to RCT-eligible registry patients. CONCLUSION: In contemporary HF registries, over half of HFrEF patients would have been eligible for trial enrolment. Crude clinical event rates were lower in the trials, but, after adjustment for case-mix, trial participants had similar rates of survival as registries. Despite this, they had about 30% higher cardiovascular mortality rates. Age and sex were the main drivers of differences in clinical outcomes between HF trials and observational HF registries.

Cardiac resynchronization therapy with or without defibrillator in patients with heart failure.

AIMS: Randomized data on the efficacy/safety of cardiac resynchronization therapy with vs. without defibrillator (CRT-D,-P) in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are scarce. We aimed to evaluate survival associated with use of CRT-D vs. CRT-P in a contemporary cohort with HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients from Swedish HF Registry treated with CRT-D/CRT-P and fulfilling criteria for primary prevention defibrillator use were included. Logistic regression was used to evaluate predictors of CRT-D non-use. All-cause mortality was compared in CRT-D vs. CRT-P by Cox regression in a 1 : 1 propensity-score-matched cohort. Of 1988 patients with CRT, 1108 (56%) had CRT-D and 880 (44%) CRT-P. Older age, higher ejection fraction (EF), female sex, and the lack of referral to HF nurse-led outpatient clinic were major determinants of CRT-D non-use. After matching, 645 CRT-D patients were compared with 645 with CRT-P. The CRT-D use was associated with lower 1- and 3-year all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR):0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.58-0.98; HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68-0.99, respectively]. Results were consistent in all pre-specified subgroups except for CRT-D use being associated with lower 3-year mortality in patients with an EF < 30% but not in those with an EF ≥ 30% (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.59-0.89 and HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 0.83-1.85, respectively; P-interaction = 0.02). CONCLUSION: In a contemporary HFrEF cohort, CRT-D was associated with lower mortality compared with CRT-P. The CRT-D use was less likely in older patients, females, and in patients not referred to HF nurse-led outpatient clinic. Our findings support the use of CRT-D vs. CRT-P in HFrEF, in particular with severely reduced EF.

Empagliflozin in Heart Failure With Predicted Preserved Versus Reduced Ejection Fraction: Data From the EMPA-REG OUTCOME Trial.

BACKGROUND: In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial, ejection fraction (EF) data were not collected. In the subpopulation with heart failure (HF), we applied a new predictive model for EF to determine the effects of empagliflozin in HF with predicted reduced (HFrEF) vs preserved (HFpEF) EF vs no HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We applied a validated EF predictive model based on patient baseline characteristics and treatments to categorize patients with HF as being likely to have HF with mid-range EF (HFmrEF)/HFrEF (EF <50%) or HFpEF (EF ≥50%). Cox regression was used to assess the effect of empagliflozin vs placebo on cardiovascular death/HF hospitalization (HHF), cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, and HHF in patients with predicted HFpEF, HFmrEF/HFrEF and no HF. Of 7001 EMPA-REG OUTCOME patients with data available for this analysis, 6314 (90%) had no history of HF. Of the 687 with history of HF, 479 (69.7%) were predicted to have HFmrEF/HFrEF and 208 (30.3%) to have HFpEF. Empagliflozin's treatment effect was consistent in predicted HFpEF, HFmrEF/HFrEF and no-HF for each outcome (HR [95% CI] for the primary outcome 0.60 [0.31-1.17], 0.79 [0.51-1.23], and 0.63 [0.50-0.78], respectively; P interaction = 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: In EMPA-REG OUTCOME, one-third of the patients with HF had predicted HFpEF. The benefits of empagliflozin on HF and mortality outcomes were consistent in nonHF, predicted HFpEF and HFmrEF/HFrEF.

Internal-external cross-validation helped to evaluate the generalizability of prediction models in large clustered datasets.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate how to evaluate the need of complex strategies for developing generalizable prediction models in large clustered datasets. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed eight Cox regression models to estimate the risk of heart failure using a large population-level dataset. These models differed in the number of predictors, the functional form of the predictor effects (non-linear effects and interaction) and the estimation method (maximum likelihood and penalization). Internal-external cross-validation was used to evaluate the models' generalizability across the included general practices. RESULTS: Among 871,687 individuals from 225 general practices, 43,987 (5.5%) developed heart failure during a median follow-up time of 5.8 years. For discrimination, the simplest prediction model yielded a good concordance statistic, which was not much improved by adopting complex strategies. Between-practice heterogeneity in discrimination was similar in all models. For calibration, the simplest model performed satisfactorily. Although accounting for non-linear effects and interaction slightly improved the calibration slope, it also led to more heterogeneity in the observed/expected ratio. Similar results were found in a second case study involving patients with stroke. CONCLUSION: In large clustered datasets, prediction model studies may adopt internal-external cross-validation to evaluate the generalizability of competing models, and to identify promising modelling strategies.

Identification of distinct phenotypic clusters in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: We aimed to derive and validate clinically useful clusters of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF; left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%). METHODS AND RESULTS: We derived a cluster model from 6909 HFpEF patients from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF) and externally validated this in 2153 patients from the Chronic Heart Failure ESC-guideline based Cardiology practice Quality project (CHECK-HF) registry. In SwedeHF, the median age was 80 [interquartile range 72-86] years, 52% of patients were female and most frequent comorbidities were hypertension (82%), atrial fibrillation (68%), and ischaemic heart disease (48%). Latent class analysis identified five distinct clusters: cluster 1 (10% of patients) were young patients with a low comorbidity burden and the highest proportion of implantable devices; cluster 2 (30%) patients had atrial fibrillation, hypertension without diabetes; cluster 3 (25%) patients were the oldest with many cardiovascular comorbidities and hypertension; cluster 4 (15%) patients had obesity, diabetes and hypertension; and cluster 5 (20%) patients were older with ischaemic heart disease, hypertension and renal failure and were most frequently prescribed diuretics. The clusters were reproduced in the CHECK-HF cohort. Patients in cluster 1 had the best prognosis, while patients in clusters 3 and 5 had the worst age- and sex-adjusted prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Five distinct clusters of HFpEF patients were identified that differed in clinical characteristics, heart failure drug therapy and prognosis. These results confirm the heterogeneity of HFpEF and form a basis for tailoring trial design to individualized drug therapy in HFpEF patients.