Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics.

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

Survival, growth, and functional traits of tropical wet forest tree seedlings across an experimental soil moisture gradient in Puerto Rico.

Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8-month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture-defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions-and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture-defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species-specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions.

Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities.

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Tropical tree ectomycorrhiza are distributed independently of soil nutrients.

Mycorrhizae, a form of plant-fungal symbioses, mediate vegetation impacts on ecosystem functioning. Climatic effects on decomposition and soil quality are suggested to drive mycorrhizal distributions, with arbuscular mycorrhizal plants prevailing in low-latitude/high-soil-quality areas and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) plants in high-latitude/low-soil-quality areas. However, these generalizations, based on coarse-resolution data, obscure finer-scale variations and result in high uncertainties in the predicted distributions of mycorrhizal types and their drivers. Using data from 31 lowland tropical forests, both at a coarse scale (mean-plot-level data) and fine scale (20 × 20 metres from a subset of 16 sites), we demonstrate that the distribution and abundance of EcM-associated trees are independent of soil quality. Resource exchange differences among mycorrhizal partners, stemming from diverse evolutionary origins of mycorrhizal fungi, may decouple soil fertility from the advantage provided by mycorrhizal associations. Additionally, distinct historical biogeographies and diversification patterns have led to differences in forest composition and nutrient-acquisition strategies across three major tropical regions. Notably, Africa and Asia's lowland tropical forests have abundant EcM trees, whereas they are relatively scarce in lowland neotropical forests. A greater understanding of the functional biology of mycorrhizal symbiosis is required, especially in the lowland tropics, to overcome biases from assuming similarity to temperate and boreal regions.

Effect of an intensive lifestyle intervention on the structural and functional substrate for atrial fibrillation in people with metabolic syndrome.

AIMS: To evaluate the effect of an intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) on the structural and functional cardiac substrate of atrial fibrillation (AF) in overweight or obese people with metabolic syndrome (Mets). METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants of the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterranea-Plus trial (n = 6874) were randomized 1:1 to an ILI programme based on an energy-reduced Mediterranean diet, increased physical activity, and cognitive-behavioural weight management or to a control intervention of low-intensity dietary advice. A core echocardiography lab evaluated left atrial (LA) strain, function, and volumes in 534 participants at baseline, 3-year, and 5-year follow-ups. Mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of the ILI on LA structure and function. In the subsample, the baseline mean age was 65 years [standard deviation (SD) 5 years], and 40% of the participants were women. The mean weight change after 5 years was -3.9 kg (SD 5.3 kg) in the ILI group and -0.3 kg (SD 5.1 kg) in the control group. Over the 5-year period, both groups experienced a worsening of LA structure and function, with increases in LA volumes and stiffness index and decreases in LA longitudinal strain, LA function index, and LA emptying fraction over time. Changes in the ILI and control groups were not significantly different for any of the primary outcomes {LA emptying fraction: -0.95% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.93, -0.98] in the control group, -0.97% [95% CI -0.94, -1.00] in the ILI group, Pbetween groups = 0.80; LA longitudinal strain: 0.82% [95% CI 0.79, 0.85] in the control group, 0.85% [95% CI 0.82, 0.89] in the ILI group, Pbetween groups = 0.24} or any of the secondary outcomes. CONCLUSION: In overweight or obese people with Mets, an ILI had no impact on the underlying structural and functional LA substrate measurements associated with AF risk.

This study evaluated whether an intervention-modifying lifestyle had an effect on the parts of the heart involved in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), a common problem of the heart rhythm. This intervention was implemented in people who had excessive body weight and the metabolic syndrome (Mets), which is a combination of several cardiovascular risk factors. The lifestyle intervention included promoting a Mediterranean diet low in calories and increasing exercise to facilitate weight loss, and this intervention was compared with a control intervention to follow a healthy diet. We performed repeated studies of the heart structure and function with imaging over a period of 5 years. During the 5 years of the study, both study groups (intervention and control) showed changes in their heart consistent with ageing. However, these changes were not different in those who were receiving the lifestyle intervention. Also, participants who lost more weight, adhered better to the study diet, or did more physical activity, overall did not show any differences in their heart compared with those who did not achieve their lifestyle goals.In conclusion, a lifestyle intervention focusing on weight loss, better diet, and more exercise was not effective in improving parts of the heart potentially involved with the risk of AF.In people with metabolic syndrome, a weight control lifestyle intervention, based on an energy-reduced Mediterranean diet and physical activity, had no effect on the structural and functional cardiac substrate of atrial fibrillation.

20th-Century hurricanes leave long-lasting legacies on tropical forest height and the abundance of a dominant wind-resistant palm.

Projected increases in hurricane intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on many forest ecosystems. One key challenge is to disentangle the effects of wind damage from the myriad factors that influence forest structure and species distributions over large spatial scales. Here, we employ a novel machine learning framework with high-resolution aerial photos, and LiDAR collected over 115 km2 of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico to examine the effects of topographic exposure to two hurricanes, Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998), and several landscape-scale environmental factors on the current forest height and abundance of a dominant, wind-resistant species, the palm Prestoea acuminata var. montana. Model predictions show that the average density of the palm was 32% greater while the canopy height was 20% shorter in forests exposed to the two storms relative to unexposed areas. Our results demonstrate that hurricanes have lasting effects on forest canopy height and composition, suggesting the expected increase in hurricane severity with a warming climate will alter coastal forests in the North Atlantic.

Hydraulic variability of tropical forests is largely independent of water availability.

Tropical rainforest woody plants have been thought to have uniformly low resistance to hydraulic failure and to function near the edge of their hydraulic safety margin (HSM), making these ecosystems vulnerable to drought; however, this may not be the case. Using data collected at 30 tropical forest sites for three key traits associated with drought tolerance, we show that site-level hydraulic diversity of leaf turgor loss point, resistance to embolism (P50 ), and HSMs is high across tropical forests and largely independent of water availability. Species with high HSMs (>1 MPa) and low P50 values (< -2 MPa) are common across the wet and dry tropics. This high site-level hydraulic diversity, largely decoupled from water stress, could influence which species are favoured and become dominant under a drying climate. High hydraulic diversity could also make these ecosystems more resilient to variable rainfall regimes.

Demography of the understory herb Heliconia acuminata (Heliconiaceae) in an experimentally fragmented tropical landscape.

Habitat fragmentation remains a major focus of research by ecologists decades after being put forward as a threat to the integrity of ecosystems. While studies have documented myriad biotic changes in fragmented landscapes, including the local extinction of species from fragments, the demographic mechanisms underlying these extinctions are rarely known. However, many of them-especially in lowland tropical forests-are thought to be driven by one of two mechanisms: (1) reduced recruitment in fragments resulting from changes in the diversity or abundance of pollinators and seed dispersers or (2) increased rates of individual mortality in fragments due to dramatically altered abiotic conditions, especially near fragment edges. Unfortunately, there have been few tests of these potential mechanisms due to the paucity of long-term and comprehensive demographic data collected in both forest fragments and continuous forest sites. Here we report 11 years (1998-2009) of demographic data from populations of the Amazonian understory herb Heliconia acuminata (LC Rich.) found at Brazil's Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP). The data set comprises >66,000 plant × year records of 8586 plants, including 3464 seedlings established after the first census. Seven populations were in experimentally isolated fragments (one in each of four 1-ha fragments and one in each of three 10-ha fragments), with the remaining six populations in continuous forest. Each population was in a 50 × 100 m permanent plot, with the distance between plots ranging from 500 m to 60 km. The plants in each plot were censused annually, at which time we recorded, identified, marked, and measured new seedlings, identified any previously marked plants that died, and recorded the size of surviving individuals. Each plot was also surveyed four to five times during the flowering season to identify reproductive plants and record the number of inflorescences each produced. These data have been used to investigate topics ranging from the way fragmentation-related reductions in germination influence population dynamics to statistical methods for analyzing reproductive rates. This breadth of prior use reflects the value of these data to future researchers. In addition to analyses of plant responses to habitat fragmentation, these data can be used to address fundamental questions in plant demography and the evolutionary ecology of tropical plants and to develop and test demographic models and tools. Though we welcome opportunities to collaborate with interested users, there are no restrictions on the use of this data set. However, we do request that those using the data for teaching or research purposes inform us of how they are doing so and cite this paper and the data archive when appropriate. Any publication using the data must also include a BDFFP Technical Series Number in the Acknowledgments. Authors can request this series number upon the acceptance of their article by contacting the BDFFP's Scientific Coordinator or E. M. Bruna.

Holes in the Head. Double cranial surgery on an individual from the Chalcolithic burial site of Camino del Molino (SE Spain).

OBJECTIVE: This article analyses new prehistoric evidence of trepanation from a collective burial site in the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula. MATERIALS: The trepanned individual was documented in the Chalcolithic burial site of Camino del Molino, where 1348 individuals (30.7 % non-adults and 69.3 % adults) were deposited in two contiguous funerary phases, making it a reference site for the knowledge of Recent Prehistoric populations. METHODS: The individual has been sexed using traditional anthropological methods and ancient DNA. C14 dating has also been obtained. The lesion has been analysed macroscopically and microscopically using SEM. RESULTS: The skull under study belonged to an adult female deposited in the second burial phase (2566-2239 years cal BCE). It exhibits in the anterior region of the right temporal fossa two contiguous and partially overlapping holes that correspond to two trepanations performed using the scraping technique. CONCLUSIONS: It is a double cranial trepanation with signs of bone remodelling suggesting survival from surgery. No pathological signs were identified potentially associated with the intervention. SIGNIFICANCE: This is the second case of surgical interventions in the geographical area of study and one of the few evidences of this practice in women during prehistoric times. LIMITATIONS: So far only the articulated skeletons from this burial have been thoroughly analysed. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Further intensive review of skull collection is advised to learn more about these surgical interventions in Copper Age and to go deeper into the causes that motivated their execution.

Effect of an intensive lifestyle intervention on the structural and functional substrate for atrial fibrillation in people with metabolic syndrome.

Aims: To evaluate the effect of an intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) on the structural and functional cardiac substrate of atrial fibrillation (AF) in overweight or obese people with metabolic syndrome (MetS). Methods: Participants of the PREDIMED-PLUS trial (n=6874) were randomised 1:1 to an ILI program based on an energy-reduced Mediterranean diet, increased physical activity, and cognitive-behavioural weight management, or to a control intervention of low-intensity dietary advice. Left atrial (LA) strain, function, and volumes were evaluated by a core echocardiography lab in 534 participants at baseline, 3-year and 5-year follow-up. Mixed models were used to evaluate the effect of the ILI on LA structure and function. Results: In the subsample, baseline mean age was 65 years (SD 5 years), and 40% of the participants were women. Over the 5-year period, both groups experienced worsening of LA structure and function, with increases in LA volumes and stiffness index and decreases in LA longitudinal strain, LA function index and LA emptying fraction over time. Changes in the ILI and control group were not significantly different for any of the primary outcomes (LA emptying fraction: -0.95% (95%CI -0.93, -0.98) in control group, -0.97% (95%CI -0.94, -1.00) in ILI group, p between groups =0.80; LA longitudinal strain: 0.82% (95%CI 0.79, 0.85) in control group, 0.85% (95%CI 0.82, 0.89) in ILI group, p between groups =0.24) or any of the secondary outcomes. Conclusions: In overweight or obese people with MetS, an ILI had no impact on the underlying structural and functional left atrial substrate measurements associated with AF risk.

Oral colonization by gram-negative bacilli in patients with hematologic malignancies and solid tumors compared with healthy controls.

BACKGROUND: Colonization of the oropharynx with gram-negative bacilli (GNB) is considered a negative prognostic factor in immunocompromised individuals. Hemato-oncologic patients represent a high-risk group due to their immunodeficiencies and associated treatments. This study aimed to determine the rates of oral colonization by GNB, associated factors, and clinical outcomes in patients with hematologic malignancies and solid tumors compared with healthy subjects. METHODS: We conducted a comparative study of hemato-oncologic patients and healthy subjects from August to October 2022. Swabs were taken from the oral cavity; specimens with GNB were identified and tested for antimicrobial susceptibility. RESULTS: We included 206 participants (103 hemato-oncologic patients and 103 healthy subjects). Hemato-oncologic patients had higher rates of oral colonization by GNB (34% vs. 17%, P = 0.007) and GNB resistant to third-generation cephalosporins (11.6% vs. 0%, P < 0.001) compared to healthy subjects. Klebsiella spp. was the predominant genus in both groups. The factor associated with oral colonization by GNB was a Charlson index ≥ 3, while ≥ 3 dental visits per year were a protective factor. Regarding colonization by resistant GNB in oncology patients, antibiotic therapy and a Charlson index ≥ 5 were identified as associated factors, while better physical functionality (ECOG ≤ 2) was associated with less colonization. Hemato-oncologic patients colonized with GNB had more 30-day infectious complications (30.5% vs. 2.9%, P = 0.0001) than non-colonized patients. CONCLUSION: Oral colonization by GNB and resistant GNB are prevalent in cancer patients, especially those with higher scores on the severity scales. Infectious complications occurred more frequently in colonized patients. There is a knowledge gap about dental hygiene practices in hemato-oncologic patients colonized by GNB. Our results suggest that patients' hygienic-dietary habits, especially frequent dental visits, are a protective factor against colonization.

Demographic trade-offs and functional shifts in a hurricane-impacted tropical forest.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Understanding shifts in the demographic and functional composition of forests after major natural disturbances has become increasingly relevant given the accelerating rates of climate change and elevated frequency of natural disturbances. Although plant demographic strategies are often described across a slow-fast continuum, severe and frequent disturbance events influencing demographic processes may alter the demographic trade-offs and the functional composition of forests. We examined demographic trade-offs and the shifts in functional traits in a hurricane-disturbed forest using long-term data from the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFPD) in Puerto Rico. METHODS: We analysed information on growth, survival, seed rain and seedling recruitment for 30 woody species in the LFDP. In addition, we compiled data on leaf, seed and wood functional traits that capture the main ecological strategies for plants. We used this information to identify the main axes of demographic variation for this forest community and evaluate shifts in community-weighted means for traits from 2000 to 2016. KEY RESULTS: The previously identified growth-survival trade-off was not observed. Instead, we identified a fecundity-growth trade-off and an axis representing seedling-to-adult survival. Both axes formed dimensions independent of resprouting ability. Also, changes in tree species composition during the post-hurricane period reflected a directional shift from seedling and tree communities dominated by acquisitive towards conservative leaf economics traits and large seed mass. Wood specific gravity, however, did not show significant directional changes over time. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that tree demographic strategies coping with frequent storms and hurricane disturbances deviate from strategies typically observed in undisturbed forests, yet the shifts in functional composition still conform to the expected changes from acquisitive to conservative resource-uptake strategies expected over succession. In the face of increased rates of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in tropical regions, our results anticipate shifts in species demographic trade-offs and different functional dimensions.

Leaf habit affects the distribution of drought sensitivity but not water transport efficiency in the tropics.

Considering the global intensification of aridity in tropical biomes due to climate change, we need to understand what shapes the distribution of drought sensitivity in tropical plants. We conducted a pantropical data synthesis representing 1117 species to test whether xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (KS ), water potential at leaf turgor loss (ΨTLP ) and water potential at 50% loss of KS (ΨP50 ) varied along climate gradients. The ΨTLP and ΨP50 increased with climatic moisture only for evergreen species, but KS did not. Species with high ΨTLP and ΨP50 values were associated with both dry and wet environments. However, drought-deciduous species showed high ΨTLP and ΨP50 values regardless of water availability, whereas evergreen species only in wet environments. All three traits showed a weak phylogenetic signal and a short half-life. These results suggest strong environmental controls on trait variance, which in turn is modulated by leaf habit along climatic moisture gradients in the tropics.

Medical Theatre as an Innovative Pedagogical Strategy in Medical Simulation.

Medical education has overshadowed the importance for interpersonal abilities in modern medicine practice. In this work, we report an innovative strategy to teach, practice, and evaluate communication and empathy abilities, based on medical theater. This approach was based on interdisciplinary effort between Medicine, Performing Arts, and Bioethics Faculty. Development and first pilot experience results are here reported. A multidisciplinary team was established with the objective to structure the methodology where simulated clinical consultations were performed: two interviews took place, each with one medical student as physician and one performing arts student as simulated patient. Thirty students and 7 Faculty members participated as spectators. Students received immediate feedback and they qualitatively evaluated the global experience. We conclude that medical theater methodology is a developmental strategy that could promote integral acquisition of communication competences. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40670-022-01551-8.

Hurricanes increase tropical forest vulnerability to drought.

Rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes, including droughts and hurricanes, are likely to influence tropical forests, but our understanding of the compound effects of disturbances on forest ecosystems is extremely limited. Filling this knowledge gap is necessary to elucidate the future of these ecosystems under a changing climate. We examined the relationship between hurricane response (damage, mortality, and resilience) and four hydraulic traits of 13 dominant woody species in a wet tropical forest subject to periodic hurricanes. Species with high resistance to embolisms (low P50 values) and higher safety margins ( SMP50 ) were more resistant to immediate hurricane mortality and breakage, whereas species with higher hurricane resilience (rapid post-hurricane growth) had high capacitance and P50 values and low SMP50 . During 26 yr of post-hurricane recovery, we found a decrease in community-weighted mean values for traits associated with greater drought resistance (leaf turgor loss point, P50 , SMP50 ) and an increase in capacitance, which has been linked with lower drought resistance. Hurricane damage favors slow-growing, drought-tolerant species, whereas post-hurricane high resource conditions favor acquisitive, fast-growing but drought-vulnerable species, increasing forest productivity at the expense of drought tolerance and leading to higher overall forest vulnerability to drought.

Distribution of biomass dynamics in relation to tree size in forests across the world.

Tree size shapes forest carbon dynamics and determines how trees interact with their environment, including a changing climate. Here, we conduct the first global analysis of among-site differences in how aboveground biomass stocks and fluxes are distributed with tree size. We analyzed repeat tree censuses from 25 large-scale (4-52 ha) forest plots spanning a broad climatic range over five continents to characterize how aboveground biomass, woody productivity, and woody mortality vary with tree diameter. We examined how the median, dispersion, and skewness of these size-related distributions vary with mean annual temperature and precipitation. In warmer forests, aboveground biomass, woody productivity, and woody mortality were more broadly distributed with respect to tree size. In warmer and wetter forests, aboveground biomass and woody productivity were more right skewed, with a long tail towards large trees. Small trees (1-10 cm diameter) contributed more to productivity and mortality than to biomass, highlighting the importance of including these trees in analyses of forest dynamics. Our findings provide an improved characterization of climate-driven forest differences in the size structure of aboveground biomass and dynamics of that biomass, as well as refined benchmarks for capturing climate influences in vegetation demographic models.

Demographic composition, not demographic diversity, predicts biomass and turnover across temperate and tropical forests.

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.

Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments.

Deforestation often results in landscapes where remaining forest habitat is highly fragmented, with remnants of different sizes embedded in an often highly contrasting matrix. Local extinction of species from individual fragments is common, but the demographic mechanisms underlying these extinctions are poorly understood. It is often hypothesized that altered environmental conditions in fragments drive declines in reproduction, recruitment, or survivorship. The Amazon basin, in addition to experiencing continuing fragmentation, is experiencing climate change-related increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and unusually wet periods. Whether plant populations in tropical forest fragments are particularly susceptible to extremes in precipitation remains unclear. Most studies of plants in fragments are relatively short (1-6 years), focus on a single life-history stage, and often do not compare to populations in continuous forest. Even fewer studies consider delayed effects of climate on demographic vital rates despite the importance of delayed effects in studies that consider them. Using a decade of demographic and climate data from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the Central Amazon, we assess the effects of climate on populations of an understory herb (Heliconia acuminata, Heliconiaceae). We used distributed lag nonlinear models to understand the delayed effects of climate (measured as standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) on survival, growth, and flowering. We detected delayed effects of climate up to 36 months. Extremes in SPEI in the previous year reduced survival, drought in the wet season 8-11 months prior to the February census increased growth, and drought two dry seasons prior increased flowering probability. Effects of extremes in precipitation on survival and growth were more pronounced in forest fragments compared to continuous forest. The complex delayed effects of climate and habitat fragmentation in our study point to the importance of long-term demography experiments in understanding the effects of anthropogenic change on plant populations.

Ephemeral forest regeneration limits carbon sequestration potential in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Although deforestation remains widespread in the tropics, many places are now experiencing significant forest recovery (i.e., forest transition), offering an optimistic outlook for natural ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration. Naturally regenerated forests, however, may not persist, so a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of forest change in the tropics is critical to ensure the success of reforestation efforts and carbon sequestration targets. Here we use 35 years of detailed land cover data to investigate forest trajectories in 3014 municipalities in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF), a biodiversity and conservation hotspot. Although deforestation was evident in some regions, deforestation reversals, the typical forest transition trajectory, were the prevalent trend in the AF, accounting for 38% of municipalities. However, simultaneous reforestation reversals in the region (13% of municipalities) suggest that these short-term increases in native forest cover do not necessarily translate into persistent trends. In the absence of reversals in reforestation, forests in the region could have sequestered 1.75 Pg C, over three times the actual estimated carbon sequestration (0.52 Pg C). We also showed that failure to distinguish native and planted forests would have masked native forest cover loss in the region and overestimated reforestation by 3.2 Mha and carbon sequestration from natural forest regeneration by 0.37 Pg C. Deforestation reversals were prevalent in urbanized municipalities with limited forest cover and high agricultural productivity, highlighting the importance of favorable socioeconomic conditions in promoting reforestation. Successful forest restoration efforts will require development and enforcement of environmental policies that promote forest regeneration and ensure the permanence of regrowing forests. This is crucial not only for the fate and conservation of the AF, but also for other tropical nations to achieve their restoration and carbon sequestration commitments.

Left atrial strain improves echocardiographic classification of diastolic function in patients with metabolic syndrome and overweight-obesity.

BACKGROUND: Current recommendations for echocardiographic assessment of diastolic function (2016 guidelines of the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE)/European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) in patients with metabolic syndrome and overweight/obesity result in a significant number of patients with indeterminate diastolic dysfunction (LVDD). The aim of this article is to study whether the use of the left atrial strain criterion (LALS) reduces the number of indeterminate patients. METHODS: 229 patients were studied with a complete echocardiographic study that included left ventricular longitudinal strain (LVLS) analysis, LALS and a maximal ergospirometry test with assessment of oxygen uptake (VO2max). RESULTS: The mean age was 65 ±â€¯5 years, 153 (67%) males, with a mean EF of 60 ±â€¯5%. The mean LVLS was -19.4 ±â€¯2% and the LALS Reservoir was 23.8 ±â€¯7%. There were 140 patients who did not meet LVDD criteria and 82 who did meet the indeterminate LVDD criterion. When the left atrial volume index (LAVI) >34 ml/m2 criterion was replaced in the 2016 ASE/EACVI algorithm by LALS Reservoir ≤20%, the number of indeterminate patients was reduced from 36% to 23% (p < 0.001) at the expense of increasing normal studies (61% and 74%). Adding the LALS Reservoir criterion ≤23% in the 82 patients of the indeterminate group resulted in two groups with a different VO2max (11.6 ±â€¯3 and 18 ±â€¯5 ml/kg/min, p:0.081). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the low prevalence of diastolic dysfunction in overweight/obese patients with metabolic syndrome. Adding left atrial strain criterion to the current recommendations significantly reduces the number of indeterminate patients by reclassifying them as normal.