Meta-analysis and adjusted estimation of COVID-19 case fatality risk in India and its association with the underlying comorbidities.

Management of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India is a top government priority. However, there is a lack of COVID-19 adjusted case fatality risk (aCFR) estimates and information on states with high aCFR. Data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the first pandemic wave and 17 state-specific geodemographic, socio-economic, health and comorbidity-related factors were collected. State-specific aCFRs were estimated, using a 13-day lag for fatality. To estimate country-level aCFR in the first wave, state estimates were meta-analysed based on inverse-variance weighting and aCFR as either a fixed- or random-effect. Multiple correspondence analyses, followed by univariable logistic regression, were conducted to understand the association between aCFR and geodemographic, health and social indicators. Based on health indicators, states likely to report a higher aCFR were identified. Using random- and fixed-effects models, cumulative aCFRs in the first pandemic wave on 27 July 2020 in India were 1.42% (95% CI 1.19%-1.70%) and 2.97% (95% CI 2.94%-3.00%), respectively. At the end of the first wave, as of 15 February 2021, a cumulative aCFR of 1.18% (95% CI 0.99%-1.41%) using random and 1.64% (95% CI 1.64%-1.65%) using fixed-effects models was estimated. Based on high heterogeneity among states, we inferred that the random-effects model likely provided more accurate estimates of the aCFR for India. The aCFR was grouped with the incidence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and acute respiratory infections in the first and second dimensions of multiple correspondence analyses. Univariable logistic regression confirmed associations between the aCFR and the proportion of urban population, and between aCFR and the number of persons diagnosed with diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and stroke per 10,000 population that had visited NCD (Non-communicable disease) clinics. Incidence of pneumonia was also associated with COVID-19 aCFR. Based on predictor variables, we categorised 10, 17 and one Indian state(s) expected to have a high, medium and low aCFR risk, respectively. The current study demonstrated the value of using meta-analysis to estimate aCFR. To decrease COVID-19 associated fatalities, states estimated to have a high aCFR must take steps to reduce co-morbidities.

Evaluation of the modified immune prognostic index to prognosticate outcomes in metastatic uveal melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic uveal melanoma (MUM) is associated with poor survival and inferior response to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy when compared with metastatic cutaneous melanoma. Currently, prognostic biomarkers are lacking to guide treatment decisions. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study using a centralized, province-wide cancer database in Alberta, Canada. We identified 37 patients with histologically confirmed MUM who received at least one dose of single-agent pembrolizumab or nivolumab, or combination therapy nivolumab and ipilimumab. A modified immune prognostic index (IPI), based on the previously reported lung immune prognostic index, was used to stratify patients into favorable and poor IPI groups. Survival analyses were conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for baseline age (≥60) and ECOG performance status, to assess the associations between IPI and overall survival (OS). Time to treatment failure (TTF) was also assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The association between IPI and objective response rate was examined using chi-squared tests. Logistic regression was used to determine the association between IPI and immune-related adverse events (irAEs). RESULTS: Median OS was 15.6 (range 0.6-57.6) months with 45.9% 1-year survival rate at a median follow-up of 11.8 months. We found that a favorable IPI was significantly associated with OS [median 30.5 (12.0-not reached) months in the favorable IPI group compared with 4.6 (2.1-16.0) months in the poor IPI group (p = 0.001)] (HR=4.81, 95% CI; 1.64-14.10, p = 0.004), TTF [median 5.1 (95% CI; 2.1-10.4) months in the favorable IPI group compared with 3.7 (95% CI; 1.4-6.4) months in the poor IPI group (p = 0.0191)], and irAE (HR=6.67, 95% CI; 1.32-33.69, p = 0.0220). CONCLUSIONS: The modified IPI may be a useful tool in clinical practice for identifying MUM patients who are more likely to experience irAEs and realize a survival benefit from ICI treatment.

Public health interventions slowed but did not halt the spread of COVID-19 in India.

The government of India implemented social distancing interventions to contain the COVID-19 epidemic. However, effects of these interventions on epidemic dynamics are yet to be understood. Rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infections per day and effective reproduction number (Rt ) were estimated for 7 periods (Pre-lockdown, Lockdown Phases 1 to 4 and Unlock 1-2) according to nationally implemented interventions with phased relaxation. Adoption of these interventions was estimated using Google mobility data. Estimates at the national level and for 12 Indian states most affected by COVID-19 are presented. Daily case rates ranged from 0.03 to 285.60/10 million people across 7 discrete periods in India. From 18 May to 31 July 2020, the NCT of Delhi had the highest case rate (999/10 million people/day), whereas Madhya Pradesh had the lowest (49/10 million/day). Average Rt was 1.99 (95% CI 1.93-2.06) and 1.39 (95% CI 1.38-1.40) for the entirety of India during the period from 22 March 2020 to 17 May 2020 and from 18 May 2020 to 31 July 2020, respectively. Median mobility in India decreased in all contact domains during the period from 22 March 2020 to 17 May 2020, with the lowest being 21% in retail/recreation, except home which increased to 129% compared to the 100% baseline value. Median mobility in the 'Grocery and Pharmacy' returned to levels observed before 22 March 2020 in Unlock 1 and 2, and the enhanced mobility in the Pharmacy sector needs to be investigated. The Indian government imposed strict contact mitigation, followed by a phased relaxation, which slowed the spread of COVID-19 epidemic progression in India. The identified daily COVID-19 case rates and Rt will aid national and state governments in formulating ongoing COVID-19 containment plans. Furthermore, these findings may inform COVID-19 public health policy in developing countries with similar settings to India.

Risk of Depression in Patients With Psoriatic Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous systematic reviews have assessed the prevalence and odds ratio (OR) of depression for patients with psoriatic disease. Due to probable bidirectional effects, prevalence and prevalence ORs are difficult to interpret. No prior reviews have quantified the relative risk (RR) of depression following a diagnosis of psoriatic disease. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the RR of depression in individuals with psoriasis and in psoriatic arthritis (PsA), clear-to-moderate psoriasis, and moderate-to-severe psoriasis subgroups. METHODS: Observational studies investigating the risk of depression in adults with psoriatic disease were systematically searched for in Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and CINAHL databases; 4989 unique references were screened. Studies that reported measures of incident depression in psoriasis patients were included. Thirty-one studies were included into the systematic review, of which 17 were meta-analyzed. Random effects models were employed to synthesize relevant data. Sources of heterogeneity were explored with subgroup analysis and meta-regression. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were included in meta-analyses. The pooled RR of depression in psoriasis patients compared to nonpsoriasis controls was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.16-1.89). Heterogeneity was high (I2 = 99.8%). Subgroup analysis and meta-regression did not indicate that PsA status or psoriasis severity (clear-to-mild, moderate-to-severe) were sources of heterogeneity. No evidence of publication bias was found. CONCLUSIONS: This review demonstrates that the risk of depression is greater in patients with psoriasis and PsA. Future research should focus on developing strategies to address the mental health needs of this patient population for depression, including primary prevention, earlier detection, and treatment strategies.

The Lung Immune Prognostic Index Discriminates Survival Outcomes in Patients with Solid Tumors Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionized the treatment landscape of several solid tumor types. However, as patient outcomes are heterogeneous, clinical tools to aid in prognostication are needed. The Lung Immune Prognostic Index (LIPI) correlates with outcomes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with ICI, but its applicability beyond NSCLC is poorly defined. We sought to determine whether LIPI is associated with overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and objective response rate (ORR) in a pooled, real-world, retrospective cohort of patients with solid tumors treated with ICI. Of the total pooled cohort (N = 578), 47.2%, 38.2% and 14.5% of patients were stratified into good, intermediate and poor LIPI group, respectively. Median OS were 22.8 (95% CI 17.4-29.5), 7.8 (95% CI 6.6-9.6), and 2.5 months (95% CI 1.4-3.4) (p < 0.0001). Median PFS were 9.9 (95% CI 7.2-11.5), 3.6 (95% CI 2.7-4.3), and 1.4 months (95% CI 1.2-2.2) (p < 0.0001). ORR was also associated with LIPI group (p < 0.001). Intermediate and poor LIPI were independently prognostic of OS compared to good LIPI, with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.8 (95% CI 1.4-2.3, p < 0.001) and 3.6 (95% CI 2.5-5.1, p < 0.001), respectively. These data are the first to suggest that in a real-world setting, the prognostic value of LIPI may be tumor agnostic.

Ustekinumab for the treatment of recalcitrant pyoderma gangrenosum: A case report.

Pyoderma gangrenosum is an ulcerating disease associated with a high degree of morbidity and mortality. Currently, little is known about the pathophysiology of pyoderma gangrenosum, though it has been linked to increased levels of inflammatory cytokines including interleukin-23. As pyoderma gangrenosum is a rare disease, evidence for pyoderma gangrenosum treatment is dependent on reporting of cases with successful therapies. Here, we describe a case of pyoderma gangrenosum developing on the lateral leg of a medically complex 47-year-old male already on chronic immunosuppressive therapy, who achieved successful wound healing with the use of ustekinumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting inhibition of interleukin-12 and interleukin-23. This case lends further evidence for the role of interleukin-23 in the pathogenesis of recalcitrant pyoderma gangrenosum and also suggests that healthcare providers may consider a trial of ustekinumab in pyoderma gangrenosum that has failed previous topical treatments or systemic immunosuppression.

Depression and the risk of rheumatoid arthritis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with negative changes in mental health. This is generally attributed to symptoms of inflammation and the adverse impact of RA on quality of life and functioning. Until recently, causal pathways in the opposite direction have not been fully appreciated. This review examines the recent literature on the risk of RA associated with depression. RECENT FINDINGS: Current literature links depression with an increased risk of RA and with a more detrimental disease course. These effects are likely to be partially mediated by negative effects of depression on coping with RA and on factors such as medication adherence, both of which lead to poorer disease outcomes. Growing evidence also suggests that inflammation is central both to depression and RA and may account for some of the complex interplay between these conditions. SUMMARY: Awareness of a bidirectional relationship between depression and RA through a biopsychosocial framework may assist clinicians in maintaining an appropriate index of suspicion about the co-occurrence of these conditions. This review also suggests an important need for integration of rheumatologic and mental health services and generates hypotheses for future research towards a better understanding of both depression and RA.

Assessment of a Bidirectional Association Between Major Depressive Disorder and Alopecia Areata.

Importance: Alopecia areata (AA) is an autoimmune disease characterized by hair loss that can impose a substantial psychological burden on patients, including major depressive disorder (MDD), yet many patients report mental health symptoms prior to the onset of AA. As such, there may be an association between MDD and AA that acts in both directions. Objective: To assess the bidirectional association between MDD and AA. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based retrospective cohort study included patients 10 to 90 years of age registered with The Health Improvement Network in general practices in the United Kingdom between January 1, 1986, and May 16, 2012. Statistical analysis was conducted from August 17, 2017, to April 23, 2018. To assess the risk of AA, the following 2 cohorts were defined: patients with an incident diagnosis of MDD (exposure) and a reference general population cohort. To assess the risk of MDD, the following 2 cohorts were defined: patients with an incident diagnosis of AA (exposure) and a reference general population cohort. Person-time was partitioned into unexposed and exposed time in the exposure cohorts. Main Outcomes and Measures: In the analysis of the risk of AA, development of incident AA during follow-up was considered the main outcome measure. In the analysis of the risk of MDD, development of incident MDD during follow-up was considered the primary outcome measure. Results: In the analysis of the risk of AA, 405 339 patients who developed MDD (263 916 women and 141 423 men; median age, 36.7 years [interquartile range, 26.6-50.5 years]) and 5 738 596 patients who did not develop MDD (2 912 201 women and 2 826 395 men; median age, 35.8 years [interquartile range, 25.3-52.6 years]) were followed up for 26 years. After adjustment for covariates, MDD was found to increase the risk of subsequently developing AA by 90% (hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.67-2.15; P < .001). Antidepressants demonstrated a protective effect on the risk of AA (hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.53-0.62; P < .001). In the analysis of the risk of MDD, 6861 patients who developed AA (3846 women and 3015 men; median age, 31.5 years [interquartile range, 18.2 years]) and 6 137 342 patients who did not develop AA (3 172 371 women and 2 964 971 men; median age, 35.9 years [interquartile range, 27.0 years]) were followed up for 26 years. After adjustment for covariates, AA was found to increase the risk of subsequently developing MDD by 34% (hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.23-1.46; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: These temporal analyses suggest that, while patients with AA are at risk for subsequently developing MDD, having MDD also appears to be a significant risk factor for development of AA, with antidepressant use confounding this risk.

Vitiligo and major depressive disorder: A bidirectional population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vitiligo patients often report their mental health has an effect on their skin. However, it is unknown as to whether a common mental disorder, such as major depressive disorder (MDD), can also precipitate the onset of vitiligo. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate a bidirectional relationship between MDD and vitiligo using The Health Improvement Network database. METHODS: Incident MDD and referent cohorts were followed until the development of vitiligo. Also, incident vitiligo and referent cohorts were followed until the development of MDD. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and numerous covariates were adjusted for. RESULTS: In adjusted models, MDD patients (n = 405,397) were at a 64% increased risk for vitiligo (hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43-1.87, P < .0001) compared with the referent cohort (n = 5,739,048). This risk was decreased in patients using antidepressants. Compared with the referent cohort (n = 6,137,696), patients with vitiligo (n = 7104) that were <30 years of age at diagnosis had a higher risk of developing MDD than patients ≥30 years of age (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.14-1.50, P < .0001 vs 1.22, 95% CI 1.08-1.37, P = .001, respectively). LIMITATIONS: This study did not evaluate the severity of MDD or vitiligo on outcome development. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the burden of depression in patients with vitiligo and support the possible existence of pathophysiological connections between these 2 conditions.

Depression increases the risk of inflammatory bowel disease, which may be mitigated by the use of antidepressants in the treatment of depression.

OBJECTIVE: Depression is associated with IBD, but the effect of antidepressants on IBD has been sparsely studied. We assessed the impact of depression and antidepressant therapies on the development of IBD. DESIGN: The Health Improvement Network (THIN) was used to identify a cohort of patients with new-onset depression from 1986 to 2012. THIN patients who did not meet the defining criteria for depression were part of the referent group. The outcome was incident Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). Cox proportional hazards modelling was performed to evaluate the rate of Crohn's disease or UC development among patients with an exposure of depression after controlling for age, sex, socioeconomic status, comorbid conditions, smoking, anxiety and antidepressant use including atypical antidepressants, mirtazapine, monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOI), serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRI), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI), serotonin modulators; and tricyclic antidepressants (TCA). RESULTS: We identified 403 665 (7.05%) patients with incident depression. Individuals with depression had a significantly greater risk of developing CD (adjusted HR=2.11, 95% CI 1.65 to 2.70) and UC (adjusted HR=2.23, 95% CI 1.92 to 2.60) after controlling for demographic and clinical covariates. SSRI and TCA were protective against CD, whereas mirtazapine, SNRI, SSRI, serotonin modulators and TCA were protective for UC. CONCLUSION: Patients with a history of depression were more likely to be diagnosed with IBD. In contrast, antidepressant treatments were selectively protective for Crohn's disease and UC. These results may impact counselling and management of depression and IBD.

Increasing Rates of Arthroplasty for Psoriatic Arthritis in the United Kingdom Between 1995 and 2010.

OBJECTIVE: Arthroplasty requirements among patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are not well known. This information is important to clinical and policy stakeholders for health-system planning and may serve as a surrogate for estimation of the efficacy of disease-modifying therapy. METHODS: We utilized The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large general practice medical records database in the UK, to assess rates of primary total arthroplasty among patients with PsA and the general population between the years 1995 and 2010. Linear regression was used to estimate arthroplasty rates for the 2 cohorts during the study period, and Poisson regression was used to determine age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) between the PsA and general population cohorts. RESULTS: We identified 5,619 patients with incident PsA and 5,090,814 eligible patients from the general population between 1995 and 2010. In total, 187 primary total arthroplasties were documented in patients with PsA, and 80,163 primary total arthroplasties were documented in the general population. A trend of increasing arthroplasty rates was observed for both the PsA (R2 = 0.809; P < 0.0001) and general population (R2 = 0.890; P < 0.0001) cohorts during the study period. After adjustment for age and sex, patients with PsA had a first arthroplasty incidence rate that was twice that of the general population (IRR 2.01 [95% confidence interval 1.73-2.34]; P < 0.0001), notably beyond the year 2003 when biologic therapies were introduced. CONCLUSION: Both the general population and patients with PsA have experienced increasing rates of first arthroplasty from 1995 to 2010, although the overall incidence rate was significantly higher for those with PsA.

Effects of medical scribes on physician productivity in a Canadian emergency department: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency department efficiency is a priority across Canada. In the United States, scribes may increase the number of patients seen per hour per physician; however, Canadian data are lacking. We sought to implement scribes in a Canadian emergency department with the hypothesis that scribes would increase the number of patients seen per hour per physician. METHODS: We conducted a 4-month quality improvement pilot study in a community emergency department in Ottawa, Ontario. Data collection began January 2015 after scribe training. Physicians received shifts with and without a scribe for a period of 4 months. Across the study, the mean number of patients seen per hour was determined for each physician during shifts with and without a scribe. We compared mean (± standard deviation [SD]) number of patients seen per hour based on presence or absence of a scribe by 2-tailed paired-samples t test. RESULTS: Eleven scribes participated and ranged in age from 18 to 23 years. Twenty-two full- or part-time emergency physicians were followed. We documented 463 physician-hours without use of a scribe and 693.75 physician-hours with use of a scribe. Across all 22 physicians, 18 (81.8%) saw more patients per hour with use of a scribe. Overall, the number of patients seen per hour per physician was significantly greater (+12.9%) during shifts with a scribe (mean [± SD] 2.81 [± 0.78]) than during shifts without a scribe (mean [± SD] 2.49 [± 0.60]; p = 0.006). INTERPRETATION: In this pilot study, the use of scribes resulted in an increased number of patients seen per hour per physician. Because this was a small study at a single centre, further research on the effects of scribes in Canada is warranted.

Depression as a risk factor for the development of rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with increased levels of systemic proinflammatory cytokines, including tumour necrosis factor alpha. As these cytokines are pathogenic in autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), our aim was to explore on a population-level whether MDD increases the risk of developing RA. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database (from 1986 to 2012). Observation time was recorded for both the MDD and referent cohorts until patients developed RA or were censored. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the risk of developing RA among patients with MDD, accounting for age, sex, medical comorbidities, smoking, body mass index and antidepressant use. RESULTS: A cohort of 403 932 patients with MDD and a referent cohort of 5 339 399 patients without MDD were identified in THIN. Cox proportional hazards models revealed a 31% increased risk of developing RA among those with MDD in an unadjusted model (HR=1.31, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.36, p<0.0001). When adjusting for all covariates, the risk remained significantly increased among those with MDD (HR=1.38, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.46, p<0.0001). Antidepressant use demonstrated a confounding effect that was protective on the association between MDD and RA. CONCLUSION: MDD increased the risk of developing RA by 38%, and antidepressants may decrease this risk in these patients. Future research is necessary to confirm the underlying mechanism of MDD on the pathogenesis of RA.

Psoriasis and the risk of foot and ankle tendinopathy or enthesopathy in the absence of psoriatic arthritis: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Imaging studies in patients with cutaneous psoriasis have demonstrated asymptomatic bone and tendon changes, commonly of the foot and ankle. We sought to determine if patients with cutaneous psoriasis have an increased risk of clinically significant foot and ankle tendinopathy or enthesopathy compared with the general population. METHODS: Patients with cutaneous psoriasis and a general population cohort were identified in The Health Improvement Network, a general practice medical records database from the UK. All patients with psoriatic arthritis were excluded. Cox proportional-hazards models (α=0.05) estimated the HR for development of foot and ankle tendinopathy or enthesopathy among patients with psoriasis, with adjustment for numerous covariates. RESULTS: In total, 78 630 patients with cutaneous psoriasis and 5 983 338 persons from the general population were identified. In an unadjusted model, patients with cutaneous psoriasis had a 25% increased risk of developing foot and ankle tendinopathy or enthesopathy compared with the general population (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.30, p<0.0001). The HR remained unchanged and statistically significant after adjusting for covariates, and in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that patients with psoriasis can have foot and ankle tendinopathy or enthesopathy without having psoriatic arthritis, presenting a diagnostic challenge to physicians. Further research is needed to elucidate mechanisms contributing to this increased risk.

Depression Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Psoriatic Arthritis among Patients with Psoriasis: A Population-Based Study.

The factors that contribute to the development of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) among patients with psoriasis are not well known; however, systemic inflammation is believed to be important. On the basis of recent laboratory work demonstrating that major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with increased systemic inflammation, we hypothesized that patients with psoriasis who develop MDD are at increased risk of subsequently developing PsA. We utilized The Health Improvement Network, a primary care medical records database, to identify 73,447 individuals with psoriasis. Patients were followed up to 25 years until the development of the primary outcome of PsA or the censor date. The exposure of interest was the development of MDD. Cox proportional-hazards models showed that patients with psoriasis who developed MDD were at significantly increased risk of subsequently developing PsA compared with patients who did not develop MDD, even after accounting for numerous covariates (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.80, P = 0.021). This result was maintained through numerous sensitivity analyses. These data support the hypothesis that MDD increases the risk of developing PsA among patients with psoriasis, suggesting a need for heightened prevention and management of MDD in patients with psoriasis.