Mapping spatial distribution and geographic shifts of East African highland banana (Musa spp.) in Uganda.

East African highland banana (Musa acuminata genome group AAA-EA; hereafter referred to as banana) is critical for Uganda's food supply, hence our aim to map current distribution and to understand changes in banana production areas over the past five decades. We collected banana presence/absence data through an online survey based on high-resolution satellite images and coupled this data with independent covariates as inputs for ensemble machine learning prediction of current banana distribution. We assessed geographic shifts of production areas using spatially explicit differences between the 1958 and 2016 banana distribution maps. The biophysical factors associated with banana spatial distribution and geographic shift were determined using a logistic regression model and classification and regression tree, respectively. Ensemble models were superior (AUC = 0.895; 0.907) compared to their constituent algorithms trained with 12 and 17 covariates, respectively: random forests (AUC = 0.883; 0.901), gradient boosting machines (AUC = 0.878; 0.903), and neural networks (AUC = 0.870; 0.890). The logistic regression model (AUC = 0.879) performance was similar to that for the ensemble model and its constituent algorithms. In 2016, banana cultivation was concentrated in the western (44%) and central (36%) regions, while only a small proportion was in the eastern (18%) and northern (2%) regions. About 60% of increased cultivation since 1958 was in the western region; 50% of decreased cultivation in the eastern region; and 44% of continued cultivation in the central region. Soil organic carbon, soil pH, annual precipitation, slope gradient, bulk density and blue reflectance were associated with increased banana cultivation while precipitation seasonality and mean annual temperature were associated with decreased banana cultivation over the past 50 years. The maps of spatial distribution and geographic shift of banana can support targeting of context-specific intensification options and policy advocacy to avert agriculture driven environmental degradation.

Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change.

Our understanding of the impact of climate change on global coffee production is largely based on studies focusing on temperature and precipitation, but other climate indicators could trigger critical threshold changes in productivity. Here, using generalized additive models and threshold regression, we investigate temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) effects on global Arabica coffee productivity. We show that VPD during fruit development is a key indicator of global coffee productivity, with yield declining rapidly above 0.82 kPa. The risk of exceeding this threshold rises sharply for most countries we assess, if global warming exceeds 2 °C. At 2.9 °C, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the VPD threshold. The inclusion of VPD and the identification of thresholds appear critical for understanding climate change impacts on coffee and for the design of adaptation strategies.

Micro-livestock in smallholder farming systems: the role, challenges and opportunities for cavies in South Kivu, eastern DR Congo.

Livestock play multiple roles for smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Mixed crop-livestock systems are common in South Kivu, eastern DR Congo, but herd sizes are small and numbers of large livestock (i.e. cattle) have declined, due to high population density, recent conflicts and extreme poverty. Over half of the farmers keep cavies, a type of micro-livestock fitting the circumstances of smallholders and a valuable asset especially for the poorest households. To characterize cavy husbandry practices, detailed monthly on-farm data on cavy numbers, weights, herd dynamics and feeding practices were collected over 15 months and from households in two contrasting sites in South Kivu. Cavy herds contained on average 10 animals and strongly varied in size over time and between households. The main reasons for keeping cavies were meat consumption, especially for children, and the opportunity to generate petty cash. A large difference was observed in adult cavy live weights between the sites (an average of 0.6 and 1.0 kg per animal in Kabamba and Lurhala, respectively) and attributed to differences in cavy husbandry and genetics. In both sites, quantities of fresh fodder on offer were larger than fodder demand by 50-100%, but no correlation was found between amount of fodder on offer and cavy weight. Farmers faced several constraints to cavy production, including substantial declines in cavy herd size due to predation or theft and a lack of knowledge regarding breeding and feeding. Hence, the introduction of cages to limit mortality and fodder cultivation to improve feed quality were opportunities for improving cavy production. Overall, micro-livestock present a promising entry-point for development initiatives, also outside DR Congo, because of their potential to decrease poverty and improve human nutrition.

Factors influencing participation dynamics in research for development interventions with multi-stakeholder platforms: A metric approach to studying stakeholder participation.

Multi-stakeholder platforms have become mainstream in projects, programmes and policy interventions aiming to improve innovation and livelihoods systems, i.e. research for development interventions in low- and middle-income contexts. However, the evidence for multi-stakeholder platforms' contribution to the performance of research for development interventions and their added value is not compelling. This paper focuses on stakeholder participation as one of the channels for multi-stakeholder platforms' contribution to the performance of research for development interventions, i.e. stakeholder participation. It uses a quantitative approach and utilizes descriptive statistics and ARIMA models. It shows that, in three Ugandan multi-stakeholder platform cases studied, participation increased both in nominal and in unique terms. Moreover, participation was rather cyclical and fluctuated during the implementation of the research for development interventions. The study also shows that, in addition to locational and intervention factors such as type of the area along a rural-urban gradient targeted by the intervention and human resources provided for multi-stakeholder platform implementation, temporal elements such as phases of research for development intervention objectives and the innovation development process play significant roles in influencing participation. The study concludes that contribution of multi-stakeholder platforms to the performance of research for development projects, programs, policies and other initiatives is constrained by locational and temporal context and conditional on the participation requirements of the objectives pursued by research for development intervention.

Using household survey data to identify large-scale food security patterns across Uganda.

To target food security interventions for smallholder households, decision makers need large-scale information, such as maps on poverty, food security and key livelihood activities. Such information is often based on expert knowledge or aggregated data, despite the fact that food security and poverty are driven largely by processes at the household level. At present, it is unclear if and how household level information can contribute to the spatial prediction of such welfare indicators or to what extent local variability is ignored by current mapping efforts. A combination of geo-referenced household level information with spatially continuous information is an underused approach to quantify local and large-scale variation, while it can provide a direct estimate of the variability of welfare indicators at the most relevant scale. We applied a stepwise regression kriging procedure to translate point information to spatially explicit patterns and create country-wide predictions with associated uncertainty estimates for indicators on food availability and related livelihood activities using household survey data from Uganda. With few exceptions, predictions of the indicators were weak, highlighting the difficulty in capturing variability at larger scale. Household explanatory variables identified little additional variation compared to environmental explanatory variables alone. Spatial predictability was strongest for indicators whose distribution was determined by environmental gradients. In contrast, indicators of crops that were more ubiquitously present across agroecological zones showed large local variation, which often overruled large-scale patterns. Our procedure adds to existing approaches that often only show large-scale patterns by revealing that local variation in welfare is large. Interventions that aim to target the poor must recognise that diversity in livelihood activities for income generation within any given area often overrides the variability of livelihood activities between distant regions in the country.

Characterization of cocoa production, income diversification and shade tree management along a climate gradient in Ghana.

Reduced climatic suitability due to climate change in cocoa growing regions of Ghana is expected in the coming decades. This threatens farmers' livelihood and the cocoa sector. Climate change adaptation requires an improved understanding of existing cocoa production systems and farmers' coping strategies. This study characterized current cocoa production, income diversification and shade tree management along a climate gradient within the cocoa belt of Ghana. The objectives were to 1) compare existing production and income diversification between dry, mid and wet climatic regions, and 2) identify shade trees in cocoa agroforestry systems and their distribution along the climatic gradient. Our results showed that current mean cocoa yield level of 288kg ha-1yr-1 in the dry region was significantly lower than in the mid and wet regions with mean yields of 712 and 849 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively. In the dry region, farmers diversified their income sources with non-cocoa crops and off-farm activities while farmers at the mid and wet regions mainly depended on cocoa (over 80% of annual income). Two shade systems classified as medium and low shade cocoa agroforestry systems were identified across the studied regions. The medium shade system was more abundant in the dry region and associated to adaptation to marginal climatic conditions. The low shade system showed significantly higher yield in the wet region but no difference was observed between the mid and dry regions. This study highlights the need for optimum shade level recommendation to be climatic region specific.

Cocoa agroforestry is less resilient to sub-optimal and extreme climate than cocoa in full sun.

Cocoa agroforestry is perceived as potential adaptation strategy to sub-optimal or adverse environmental conditions such as drought. We tested this strategy over wet, dry and extremely dry periods comparing cocoa in full sun with agroforestry systems: shaded by (i) a leguminous tree species, Albizia ferruginea and (ii) Antiaris toxicaria, the most common shade tree species in the region. We monitored micro-climate, sap flux density, throughfall, and soil water content from November 2014 to March 2016 at the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana with climate and drought events during the study period serving as proxy for projected future climatic conditions in marginal cocoa cultivation areas of West Africa. Combined transpiration of cocoa and shade trees was significantly higher than cocoa in full sun during wet and dry periods. During wet period, transpiration rate of cocoa plants shaded by A. ferruginea was significantly lower than cocoa under A. toxicaria and full sun. During the extreme drought of 2015/16, all cocoa plants under A. ferruginea died. Cocoa plants under A. toxicaria suffered 77% mortality and massive stress with significantly reduced sap flux density of 115 g cm-2  day-1 , whereas cocoa in full sun maintained higher sap flux density of 170 g cm-2  day-1 . Moreover, cocoa sap flux recovery after the extreme drought was significantly higher in full sun (163 g cm-2  day-1 ) than under A. toxicaria (37 g cm-2  day-1 ). Soil water content in full sun was higher than in shaded systems suggesting that cocoa mortality in the shaded systems was linked to strong competition for soil water. The present results have major implications for cocoa cultivation under climate change. Promoting shade cocoa agroforestry as drought resilient system especially under climate change needs to be carefully reconsidered as shade tree species such as the recommended leguminous A. ferruginea constitute major risk to cocoa functioning under extended severe drought.

Social network analysis of multi-stakeholder platforms in agricultural research for development: Opportunities and constraints for innovation and scaling.

Multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) are seen as a promising vehicle to achieve agricultural development impacts. By increasing collaboration, exchange of knowledge and influence mediation among farmers, researchers and other stakeholders, MSPs supposedly enhance their 'capacity to innovate' and contribute to the 'scaling of innovations'. The objective of this paper is to explore the capacity to innovate and scaling potential of three MSPs in Burundi, Rwanda and the South Kivu province located in the eastern part of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In order to do this, we apply Social Network Analysis and Exponential Random Graph Modelling (ERGM) to investigate the structural properties of the collaborative, knowledge exchange and influence networks of these MSPs and compared them against value propositions derived from the innovation network literature. Results demonstrate a number of mismatches between collaboration, knowledge exchange and influence networks for effective innovation and scaling processes in all three countries: NGOs and private sector are respectively over- and under-represented in the MSP networks. Linkages between local and higher levels are weak, and influential organisations (e.g., high-level government actors) are often not part of the MSP or are not actively linked to by other organisations. Organisations with a central position in the knowledge network are more sought out for collaboration. The scaling of innovations is primarily between the same type of organisations across different administrative levels, but not between different types of organisations. The results illustrate the potential of Social Network Analysis and ERGMs to identify the strengths and limitations of MSPs in terms of achieving development impacts.

Agricultural Extension Messages Using Video on Portable Devices Increased Knowledge about Seed Selection, Storage and Handling among Smallholder Potato Farmers in Southwestern Uganda.

To feed a growing population, agricultural productivity needs to increase dramatically. Agricultural extension information, with its public, non-rival nature, is generally undersupplied, and public provision remains challenging. In this study, simple agricultural extension video messages, delivered through Android tablets, were tested in the field to determine if they increased farmers' knowledge of recommended practices on (i) potato seed selection and (ii) seed storage and handling among a sample of potato farmers in southwestern Uganda. Using a field experiment with ex ante matching in a factorial design, it was established that showing agricultural extension videos significantly increased farmers' knowledge. However, results suggested impact pathways that went beyond simply replicating what was shown in the video. Video messages may have triggered a process of abstraction, whereby farmers applied insights gained in one context to a different context.

Towards a Collaborative Research: A Case Study on Linking Science to Farmers' Perceptions and Knowledge on Arabica Coffee Pests and Diseases and Its Management.

The scientific community has recognized the importance of integrating farmer's perceptions and knowledge (FPK) for the development of sustainable pest and disease management strategies. However, the knowledge gap between indigenous and scientific knowledge still contributes to misidentification of plant health constraints and poor adoption of management solutions. This is particularly the case in the context of smallholder farming in developing countries. In this paper, we present a case study on coffee production in Uganda, a sector depending mostly on smallholder farming facing a simultaneous and increasing number of socio-ecological pressures. The objectives of this study were (i) to examine and relate FPK on Arabica Coffee Pests and Diseases (CPaD) to altitude and the vegetation structure of the production systems; (ii) to contrast results with perceptions from experts and (iii) to compare results with field observations, in order to identify constraints for improving the information flow between scientists and farmers. Data were acquired by means of interviews and workshops. One hundred and fifty farmer households managing coffee either at sun exposure, under shade trees or inter-cropped with bananas and spread across an altitudinal gradient were selected. Field sampling of the two most important CPaD was conducted on a subset of 34 plots. The study revealed the following findings: (i) Perceptions on CPaD with respect to their distribution across altitudes and perceived impact are partially concordant among farmers, experts and field observations (ii) There are discrepancies among farmers and experts regarding management practices and the development of CPaD issues of the previous years. (iii) Field observations comparing CPaD in different altitudes and production systems indicate ambiguity of the role of shade trees. According to the locality-specific variability in CPaD pressure as well as in FPK, the importance of developing spatially variable and relevant CPaD control practices is proposed.

Drivers of household food availability in sub-Saharan Africa based on big data from small farms.

We calculated a simple indicator of food availability using data from 93 sites in 17 countries across contrasted agroecologies in sub-Saharan Africa (>13,000 farm households) and analyzed the drivers of variations in food availability. Crop production was the major source of energy, contributing 60% of food availability. The off-farm income contribution to food availability ranged from 12% for households without enough food available (18% of the total sample) to 27% for the 58% of households with sufficient food available. Using only three explanatory variables (household size, number of livestock, and land area), we were able to predict correctly the agricultural determined status of food availability for 72% of the households, but the relationships were strongly influenced by the degree of market access. Our analyses suggest that targeting poverty through improving market access and off-farm opportunities is a better strategy to increase food security than focusing on agricultural production and closing yield gaps. This calls for multisectoral policy harmonization, incentives, and diversification of employment sources rather than a singular focus on agricultural development. Recognizing and understanding diversity among smallholder farm households in sub-Saharan Africa is key for the design of policies that aim to improve food security.

High Potassium, Calcium, and Nitrogen Application Reduce Susceptibility to Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. musacearum.

The effect of exogenous applications of potassium (K), calcium (Ca), and nitrogen (N) on the susceptibility of four banana cultivars to Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) was studied. Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium with normal concentrations of K at 783 mg/liter, Ca at 121 mg/liter, and N at 841 mg/liter was modified to contain various concentrations of K, Ca, and N. Each nutrient was varied singly, each with three replicate experiments. The concentrations were K at 78, 157, 391, 783, 1,565, and 3,913 mg/liter; Ca at 12, 24, 60, 121, 241, and 603 mg/liter; and N at 84, 168, 420, 841, and 1,682 mg/liter. Plantlets were generated in vitro on normal MS medium and later exposed to the nutrient concentrations for a total of 8 weeks. Thereafter, they were artificially inoculated with Xanthomonas campestris pv. musacearum using an insulin syringe. In each nutrient, plantlets exposed to higher nutrient concentrations significantly (P < 0.0001) accumulated more nutrient in their tissues compared with those exposed to lesser nutrient concentrations. Wilt incidences were significantly reduced, and incubation periods (time from inoculation to appearance of first disease symptoms) increased, with increasing nutrient application. The study lays a background for in vivo studies aimed at management of BXW using nutrients, such as fertilizer application.

The impact of HIV on agricultural livelihoods in southern Uganda and the challenges of attribution.

Changes in agriculture and rural livelihoods in Africa are often attributed to the HIV epidemic. While acknowledging that the epidemic has devastated many families and communities because of excess morbidity and mortality, this review explores other causes of change in agriculture practices and production in southern Uganda. Over the past 20 years labour shortages, because of labour migration and changing aspirations (as well as HIV), crop and livestock pests and diseases, declining soil fertility, changes in commodity markets and a growing off-farm sector have contributed to the changes seen in rural southern Uganda. Policy interventions outside agriculture and health have also had an impact on households. The HIV epidemic has not happened in isolation. The perceived impacts of the epidemic cannot be addressed in isolation from these other drivers of change.