Meta-analysis of age-prevalence patterns in lymphatic filariasis: no decline in microfilaraemia prevalence in older age groups as predicted by models with acquired immunity.

The role of acquired immunity in lymphatic filariasis is uncertain. Assuming that immunity against new infections develops gradually with accumulated experience of infection, models predict a decline in prevalence after teenage or early adulthood. A strong indication for acquired immunity was found in longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India, where Mf prevalence was highest around the age of 20 and declined thereafter. We reviewed published studies from India and Subsaharan Africa to investigate whether their age-prevalence patterns support the models with acquired immunity. By comparing prevalence levels in 2 adult age groups we tested whether prevalence declined at older age. For India, comparison of age groups 20-39 and 40+ revealed a significant decline in only 6 out of 53 sites, whereas a significant increase occurred more often (10 sites). Comparison of older age groups provided no indication that a decline would start at a later age. Results from Africa were even more striking, with many more significant increases than declines, irrespective of the age groups compared. The occurrence of a decline was not related to the overall Mf prevalence and seems to be a chance finding. We conclude that there is no evidence of a general age-prevalence pattern that would correspond to the acquired immunity models. The Pondicherry study is an exceptional situation that may have guided us in the wrong direction.

Vector survival and parasite infection: the effect of Wuchereria bancrofti on its vector Culex quinquefasciatus.

This paper investigates a cohort of 2187 laboratory reared Culex quinquefasciatus fed on 69 human volunteers, including 59 persons with different levels of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae and 10 without microfilaria. Mosquitoes were followed until death. Mosquito survival was analysed in relation to the level of microfilaria in the human and larval count in the dead mosquito. Vector mortality during the extrinsic incubation period (12 days post-engorgement) was significantly higher in mosquitoes fed on microfilaraemic volunteers (50%) than in those fed on amicrofilaraemics (29%). Both the percentage infected and the geometric mean parasite density was significantly higher among mosquitoes which died before 13 days (45% infected and 10 larvae per infected mosquito) than those surviving beyond 13 days (39% and 2.2), suggesting a parasite loss of more than 80% during the extrinsic incubation period. A large proportion (62%) of the mosquitoes that died during the early of phase of parasite development were infected (36% in low, 26% in medium and 90% in high human Mf-density). Survival analysis showed that the parasite load in mosquitoes and the human Mf-density for a given parasite load are independent risk factors of vector survival. Overall, the hazard of dying was found to be 11-15 times higher among mosquitoes fed on microfilaraemic volunteers than those fed on amicrofilaraemics. The hazard doubles for every increase of about 60-70 parasites in the vector. As a consequence of the parasite-induced reduction in vector survival, the transmission success of the parasite is reduced. The implication of the results on control/elimination of lymphatic filariasis using mass-drug administration is discussed.

The dynamics of Wuchereria bancrofti infection: a model-based analysis of longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India.

This paper presents a model-based analysis of longitudinal data describing the impact of integrated vector management on the intensity of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in Pondicherry, India. The aims of this analysis were (1) to gain insight into the dynamics of infection, with emphasis on the possible role of immunity, and (2) to develop a model that can be used to predict the effects of control. Using the LYMFASIM computer simulation program, two models with different types of immunity (anti-L3 larvae or anti-adult worm fecundity) were compared with a model without immunity. Parameters were estimated by fitting the models to data from 5071 individuals with microfilaria-density measurement before and after cessation of a 5-year vector management programme. A good fit, in particular of the convex shape of the age-prevalence curve, required inclusion of anti-L3 or anti-fecundity immunity in the model. An individual's immune-responsiveness was found to halve in approximately 10 years after cessation of boosting. Explanation of the large variation in Mf-density required considerable variation between individuals in exposure and immune responsiveness. The mean life-span of the parasite was estimated at about 10 years. For the post-control period, the models predict a further decline in Mf prevalence, which agrees well with observations made 3 and 6 years after cessation of the integrated vector management programme.

Assessing density dependence in the transmission of lymphatic filariasis: uptake and development of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae in the vector mosquitoes.

Understanding density dependence in the transmission of lymphatic filariasis is essential for assessing the prospects of elimination. This study seeks to quantify the relationship between microfilaria (Mf) density in human blood and the number of third stage (L3) larvae developing in the mosquito vectors Aedes polynesiensis Marks and Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) after blood-feeding. Two types of curves are fitted to previously published data. Fitting a linearized power curve through the data allows for correction for measurement error in human Mf counts. Ignoring measurement error leads to overestimation of the strength of density dependence; the degree of overestimation depends on the accuracy of measurement of Mf density. For use in mathematical models of transmission of lymphatic filariasis, a hyperbolic saturating function is preferable. This curve explicitly estimates the Mf uptake and development at lowest Mf densities and the average maximum number of L3 that can develop in mosquitoes. This maximum was estimated at 23 and 4 for Ae. polynesiensis and Cx. quinquefasciatus, respectively.

Regulation of anti-filarial IgE by infection pressure.

In lymphatic filariasis, specific IgG4 responses to the parasite and their relationship with infection have been studied extensively, but only a few studies have concentrated on anti-filarial and total IgE. Here we have investigated the role of filarial infection pressure on production of IgE by considering length of exposure (age), filarial endemicity and parasitological status. Antibody levels were determined in 366 individuals, who were resident in 3 villages in South-Sulawesi, Indonesia, with varying degrees of filarial transmission intensity, as indicated by the prevalence of Brugia malayi microfilaraemia (0.7%, 9% and 32%, respectively). Anti-filarial IgE levels were significantly lower in the low transmission village than in the areas with intermediate and high filarial transmission; however, in the latter village a remarkable suppression of specific IgE was found. Microfilaria-positive individuals showed elevated levels of total IgE, but suppression of specific IgE, which has been reported before. Taken together, these observations suggest that 2 opposing mechanisms regulate anti-parasite IgE expression: increasing experience of filarial infection stimulates specific IgE, but antibody levels become specifically suppressed when microfilariae or adult worms develop. Using a simple mathematical model, we illustrate how anti-filarial IgE increases with parasite antigen up to a threshold level, but levels off and becomes down-regulated after the threshold is exceeded.

Women who participate in spontaneous screening are not at higher risk for cervical cancer than women who attend programme screening.

Up to 1995, programme screening for cervical cancer in The Netherlands was targeted at women between 35 and 54 years of age at 3-yearly intervals. Spontaneous screening in addition to programme screening was common practice. Our aim was to compare the underlying risk for cervical neoplasia for women involved in both types of screening. From the national pathological database, we retrieved all primary smears (n=693318) taken in 1994 in The Netherlands. Among the smears registered for screening purposes (39%), 79% was taken within the mass screening programme and 21% was taken for spontaneous screening. The underlying risk was studied from the detection rates of histologically confirmed severe dysplasia or worse, using a multivariate loglinear model, including age and screening history. The detection rate of at least severe dysplasia, adjusted for age and screening history, was equal for women who had a spontaneous smear and for those who had a programme smear (odds ratio (OR): 0.97; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.84-1.14). In our data, women participating in spontaneous screening were not at a higher risk for cervical cancer than women who used programme screening. Therefore, all asymptomatic women in the Netherlands should follow the general guidelines for age-range and screening-interval.

Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination.

BACKGROUND: In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human use. METHODS: We used ONCHOSIM, a microsimulation mathematical model of the dynamics of onchocerciasis transmission, to explore the potentials of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug for the elimination of onchocerciasis under different epidemiological conditions, as characterized by previous intervention strategies, vectorial capacity and levels of coverage. RESULTS: With a high vector biting rate and poor coverage, a very effective macrofilaricide would appear to have a substantially higher potential for achieving elimination of the parasite than does ivermectin. CONCLUSIONS: Macrofilaricides have a substantially higher potential for achieving onchocerciasis elimination than ivermectin, but high coverage levels are still key. When these drugs become available, onchocerciasis elimination strategies should be reconsidered. In view of the impact of control efforts preceding the introduction of macrofilaricides on the success of elimination, it is important to sustain current control efforts.

Endocervical status is not predictive of the incidence of cervical cancer in the years after negative smears.

The clinical relevance of the lack of endocervical cells was never well established in a longitudinal study with histologically proven cervical cancer as an end point. From the Dutch Network and National Database for Pathology, results for all negative smears obtained in 1990 and 1991 in the Netherlands were retrieved, as were data for all cytologic and histologic examinations performed after the negative smears before April 1998. There were no significant differences between the proportion of preinvasive lesions (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 1, 2, and 3) detected after negative smears without endocervical cells compared with negative smears with endocervical cells. The proportion of women in whom invasive cancer developed was the same in both groups. These data suggest there is no reason to advise women with negative smears without endocervical cells to undergo an additional smear.

Impact of systematic false-negative test results on the performance of faecal occult blood screening.

The impact of systematic false-negative test results on mortality reduction and on programme sensitivity of annual faecal occult blood testing in ages 50-84 years is explored using a microsimulation model. We made calculations for test sensitivities of 80, 50 and 30%. In order to reproduce a cancer detection rate of 2.2 per 1000 at the first screening, the corresponding mean preclinical sojourn times had to be 1.42, 2.30 and 3.84 years, respectively. The fraction systematic results among the false-negative results is varied between 0 and 100%. With 80% test sensitivity, the reduction in mortality due to screening decreases from 25% without systematic results to 23% when all false-negative results are systematic and the programme sensitivity decreases from 63 to 58%. With 30% test sensitivity, mortality reduction decreases from 21 to 11% and programme sensitivity decreases from 52 to 27%. The impact of systematic false-negative test results is important if annual FOBT screening is considered.

Effectiveness of annual ivermectin treatment for Wuchereria bancrofti infection.

Using estimates for the anthelmintic efficacy of a single dose of ivermectin in the treatment of lymphatic filariasis patients, Anton Plaisier, Wilma Stolk, Gerrit van Oortmarssen and Dik Habbema here present and discuss model predictions of the impact of a five-year programme of annual community treatment on the intensity of infection. They show that the effectiveness of such programmes in terms of reductions in the microfilarial density depends critically on the treatment coverage and the pattern of attendance at repeated mass administrations. Improving these factors will possibly be more important than improving the efficacy of ivermectin by increasing its dosage or by adding other drugs.

Endoscopic colorectal cancer screening: a cost-saving analysis.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive analyses have shown that screening for cancer usually induces net costs. In this study, the possible costs and savings of endoscopic colorectal cancer screening are explored to investigate whether the induced savings may compensate for the costs of screening. METHODS: A simulation model for evaluation of colorectal cancer screening, MISCAN-COLON, is used to predict costs and savings for the U.S. population, assuming that screening is performed during a period of 30 years. Plausible baseline parameter values of epidemiology, natural history, screening test characteristics, and unit costs are based on available data and expert opinion. Important parameters are varied to extreme but plausible values. RESULTS: Given the expert opinion-based assumptions, a program based on every 5-year sigmoidoscopy screenings could result in a net savings of direct health care costs due to prevention of cancer treatment costs that compensate for the costs of screening, diagnostic follow-up, and surveillance. This result persists when costs and health effects are discounted at 3%. The "break-even" point, the time required before savings exceed costs, is 35 years for a screening program that terminates after 30 years and 44 years for a screening program that continues on indefinitely. However, net savings increase or turn into net costs when alternative assumptions about natural history of colorectal cancer, costs of screening, surveillance, and diagnostics are considered. CONCLUSIONS: Given the present, limited knowledge of the disease process of colorectal cancer, test characteristics, and costs, it may well be that the induced savings by endoscopic colorectal cancer screening completely compensate for the costs.

Efficacy of ivermectin in the treatment of Wuchereria bancrofti infection: a model-based analysis of trial results.

Ivermectin is a promising drug for the treatment of lymphatic filariasis. A meta-analysis of trials investigating the effects of a single treatment suggested a dose-dependent effect on the production of microfilariae (mf) by adult Wuchereria bancrofti parasites. A mathematical model that describes the parasite dynamics in the human host and the impact of ivermectin treatment is presented and its outputs compared with these trials. The calculated trend in mf density after treatment appears to be particularly sensitive to the assumption about the mean life-span of mf. Adopting 0.5-2 years as a range of plausible values for this mf life-span, the model is used to estimate the impact of treatment on the parasite. It is found that irrespective of dosage, ivermectin eliminates 100% of the blood mf from a patient. Furthermore, at a dosage level of 400 micrograms/kg a single treatment irreversibly reduces the mf production of the adult parasites by at least 65%. For a dosage of 200 micrograms/kg this reduction is at least 35%. No such effect can be concluded from the results of trials using lower dosages.

SIMLEP: a simulation model for leprosy transmission and control.

SIMLEP is a computer program for modeling the transmission and control of leprosy which can be used to project epidemiologic trends over time, producing output on indicators such as prevalence, incidence and case-detection rates of leprosy. In SIMLEP, health states have been defined that represent immunologic conditions and stages of leprosy infection and disease. Three types of interventions are incorporated: vaccination, case detection and chemotherapy treatment. Uncertainties about leprosy have led to a flexible design in which the user chooses which of many aspects should be included in the model. These aspects include natural immunity, asymptomatic infection, type distribution of new cases, delay between onset of disease and start of chemotherapy, and mechanisms for leprosy transmission. An example run illustrates input and output of the program. The output produced by SIMLEP can be readily compared with observed data, which allows for validation studies. The support that SIMLEP can give to health policy research and actual decision making will depend upon the extent of validation that has been achieved. SIMLEP can be used to improve the understanding of observed leprosy trends, for example, in relation to early detection campaigns and the use of multidrug therapy, by exploring which combinations of assumptions can explain these trends. In addition, SIMLEP allows for scenario analysis in which the effects of control strategies combining different interventions can be simulated and evaluated.

Factors associated with impairments in new leprosy patients: the AMFES cohort.

Data on the importance of the delay between onset of symptoms and registration as a risk factor for impairment are sparse. This study investigates the quantitative relationship between this delay, other risk factors and the impairment status in new leprosy patients. It reports on 592 new leprosy patients enrolled in 1988-1992 in the prospective ALERT MDT Field Evaluation Study in central Ethiopia (AMFES). The influence of the risk factors sex, age, delay, PB/MB classification in relation to BI, and prior dapsone treatment on the impairment status at intake is analysed. Estimates for the delay are based on patient recall. For the risk factors, odds ratios on impairment and on severity of impairment were calculated using both univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The registration delay was 2 years or more for 44% of new patients. The prevalence of impairment (WHO impairment grades 1 and 2 combined) increased continuously from 36% for new patients with a delay of 0-1 year to 81% for new patients with delays of 4 years or more. This prevalence also increased continuously with age; it rose from 26% in children to 80% for the age group 60 and over. In the multivariate regression, the odds ratios for new patients to be impaired were statistically significant for all delay categories (baseline 1-2 years) and age groups (baseline 15-29 years). No statistically significant differences in odds ratios were observed with respect to sex and PB/MB classification in relation to BI. Overall, 31% of new patients presented with WHO impairment grade 1 and 23% with grade 2. The risk on grade 2 also increased with the registration delay amongst the impaired new patients. Relatively few impaired males and relatively few impaired MB patients with a BI value of 3 or higher had grade 2 impairment. Registration delay and age are the main risk factors for presentation with impairment. Reduction of delay in central Ethiopia requires re-thinking of control methodologies. The search for ways to reduce delays in diagnosis and treatment should receive high priority in leprosy research and in leprosy control programmes.

The MISCAN-COLON simulation model for the evaluation of colorectal cancer screening.

A general model for evaluation of colorectal cancer screening has been implemented in the microsimulation program MISCAN-COLON. A large number of fictitious individual life histories are simulated in each of which several colorectal lesions can emerge. Next, screening for colorectal cancer is simulated, which will change some of the life histories. The demographic characteristics, the epidemiology and natural history of the disease, and the characteristics of screening are defined in the input. All kinds of assumptions on the natural history of colorectal cancer and screening and surveillance strategies can easily be incorporated in the model. MISCAN-COLON gives detailed output of incidence, prevalence and mortality, and the results and effects of screening. It can be used to test hypotheses about the natural history of colorectal cancer, such as the duration of progressive adenomas, and screening characteristics, such as sensitivity of tests, against empirical data. In decision making about screening, the model can be used for evaluation of screening policies, and for choosing between competing policies by comparing their simulated incremental costs and effectiveness outcomes.

The LYMFASIM simulation program for modeling lymphatic filariasis and its control.

The LYMFASIM modeling framework for the transmission and control of the tropical parasitic disease lymphatic filariasis is described and its use in the context of an endemic community in north-eastern Brazil is illustrated. Lymphatic filariasis is a disease with a complex natural history with many unknowns. This complicates decision making with respect to control strategies. With LYMFASIM, a variety of hypotheses can be tested about the life history of the parasite Wuchereria bancrofti, its transmission from man to man through mosquitoes, the role of the immune system in regulating parasite numbers, the development of disease symptoms, and the effects of control measures (drug treatment or mosquito control). The implications of alternative assumptions and uncertainty about the quantification of parameters for the effectiveness of control strategies can be investigated. Thanks to the use of stochastic microsimulation, LYMFASIM is highly flexible and can be adapted and extended as new knowledge emerges.

Screening for congenital heart malformation in child health centres.

BACKGROUND: Although screening for congenital heart malformations is part of the child health care programme in several countries, there are very few published evaluations of these activities. This report is concerned with the evaluation of this screening at the Dutch Child Health Centres (CHC). METHODS: All consecutive patients, aged between 32 days and 4 years, presented at the Sophia Children's Hospital Rotterdam throughout a period of 2 years, with a congenital heart malformation were included in this study. Paediatric cardiologists established whether or not these patients were diagnosed after haemodynamic complications had already developed (diagnosed 'too late'). Parents and CHC-physicians were interviewed in order to establish the screening and detection history. Test properties were established for all patients with a congenital heart malformation (n = 290), intended effects of screening were established in patients with clinically significant malformations (n = 82). RESULTS: The sensitivity of the actual screening programme was 0.57 (95% CI : 0.51-0.62), the specificity 0.985 (95% CI : 0.981-0.990) and the predictive value of a positive test result 0.13 (95% CI: 0.10-0.19). Sensitivity in a subpopulation of patients adequately screened was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.74-0.96). Adequately screened patients were less likely to be diagnosed 'too late' than inadequately screened patients (odds ratio [OR] = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.04-1.05). The actual risk of being diagnosed 'too late' in the study-population (48%) was only slightly less than the estimated risk for patients not exposed to CHC-screening (58%, 95% CI: 43%-72%). Adequately screened patients however were at considerably less risk (17%, 95% CI: 4%-48%). CONCLUSION: Screening for congenital heart malformations in CHC contributes to the timely detection of these disorders. The actual yield, however, is far from optimal, and the screening programme should be improved.

Coping with multiple morbidity in a life table.

PIP: "We present the proportional multi-state life table method, that makes the inclusion of multiple diseases better manageable and allows for comorbidity implicitly, without the need to define additional states. We implement the method for heart disease and stroke [among Dutch males in 1988], and look at the effect of hypothetical but not unrealistic changes in incidence and survival on disease prevalence and comorbidity. Finally we discuss limitations and extensions of the method." (EXCERPT)^ieng

Trends in leprosy case detection rates.

BACKGROUND: A systematic review of the trends in leprosy incidence is lacking. The question of whether leprosy transmission has declined remains, therefore, unanswered. This study investigates trends in new case detection rates (NCDRs) in selected leprosy-endemic areas from different continents. METHODS: A literature search using specific inclusion criteria was performed. Average annual rates of change in NCDRs were obtained by exponential curve fitting. The variation in trends within individual areas was investigated using direct and indirect information on leprosy control activities. RESULTS: This review covers 16 areas in the Pacific, Asia, Africa and Latin America. For 10 out of the 16 areas, the trend was seen to be declining consistently over the last 10 years or longer. Near stabilization or stabilization after decline was observed for two areas. For three areas, interpretation of recent NCDRs was difficult due to changes in control, but two of them showed a decline over the study period. A consistently increasing trend was observed over the last 20 years in the one remaining area. The observed downward trends could not be attributed to reduced control activities or changed diagnostic criteria. A general acceleration of downward trends in the NCDR after the introduction of multidrug therapy (MDT) has not so far occurred. CONCLUSION: Our main conclusion is that despite many differences between the studies and study areas, the review demonstrates a considerable tendency of downward NCDR trends. Lack of information and changing control conditions necessitate caution in interpreting NCDR trends in individual areas. A general impact of MDT on NCDR trends is so far not visible. The coming years will be crucial for MDT-based control to prove its ability to reduce leprosy incidence.