Hydrological impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes in the Lower Mekong Basin: a case study of the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam.

This study presents hydrological impacts of future climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) for the Srepok River Basin (SRB) in the Vietnam's Central Highlands. The hydrology cycle of this basin was reproduced using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) allowing an evaluation of hydrological responses to CC and LUCC. Future climate scenarios of the 2015-2100 period under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and LUCC scenario in 2050 were developed. Compared to the reference scenario (1980-2005), future LUCC increases the streamflow (0.25%) and surface runoff (1.2%) and reduces the groundwater discharge (2.1%). Climate change may cause upward trends in streamflow (0.1 to 2.7%), surface runoff (0.4 to 4.3%), and evapotranspiration (0.8 to 3%), and a change in the groundwater discharge (- 1.7 to 0.1%). The combination of CC and LUCC increases the streamflow (0.2 to 2.8%), surface runoff (1.6 to 5.6%), and evapotranspiration (1.0 to 3.1%), and reduces the groundwater discharge (1.5 to 2.7%) with respect to the reference scenario. Moreover, the results noted that the water scarcity may happen in the dry-seasonal months.

Implications of climate change and drought on water requirements in a semi-mountainous region of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.

As the backbone of Vietnam's economy, the country has recently established a number of policies for promoting and investing in smart agriculture in the Mekong Delta, the country's largest agricultural hub, to foster overall socio-economic development. However, water remains a critical constraint for crop production, with progress being hindered by water scarcity and quality issues, and compounded by socio-economic transformation and climate change. Considering these challenges, this study used the CROPWAT model and a wide spectrum of climate change scenarios to investigate future total water demands in the 2030s and 2050s as well as drought levels in two underdeveloped semi-mountainous reservoir catchments, i.e., O Ta Soc and O Tuk Sa in An Giang province. The results suggest that the usable storage capacity of the O Ta Soc reservoir will increase to 650,000 m3 to meet water supply demands under all climate change scenarios and the medium-term, moderate drought conditions. The useable storage capacity of the O Tuk Sa reservoir will also be increased to 880,000 m3 and the irrigation area would see a marked 70% reduction compared to its design irrigation. Under these circumstances, the O Tuk Sa reservoir will continue to supply water under all climate change scenarios and medium-term droughts. As a core element for strategic planning and to ensure efficient management of water resources, the results highlight the importance of estimating potential runoff and rainfall in semi-mountainous reservoir catchments under various drought conditions in order to propose the suitable expansion of the useable water storage capacities.