How researchers can translate health evidence into books for children.

The health promotion literature that considers how scientific evidence can be effectively communicated tends to focus on evaluating the effectiveness of communication materials. This has resulted in a knowledge gap regarding effective knowledge translation processes. This study explores the process, reasoning and practices for developing books for children that incorporate evidence-based information to aid understanding of scientific evidence about health and environmental or natural disasters. This study is informed by a systematic review of the literature combined with responses to an email interview with authors of books for children. Nine published studies were included in the systematic review. Twenty-two authors responded to the email survey (25% response rate, following 86 invitations). We report seven key findings to guide the development of health-promoting books for children: (i) understand the needs and expectations of the audience, (ii) articulate the topic and research evidence, (iii) assemble a team with a mix of content knowledge and creative expertise, (iv) format should be chosen to suit the user group and guided by the creative team, (v) early testing with children and their support system is crucial, (vi) develop a dissemination strategy to reach the user group and (vii) engage in reflexivity through evaluation of effectiveness of messaging. The current investigation can guide the process, reasoning and practice of developing books for children that incorporate evidence about health and environmental disasters.

The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.

Towards development of functional climate-driven early warning systems for climate-sensitive infectious diseases: Statistical models and recommendations.

Climate, weather and environmental change have significantly influenced patterns of infectious disease transmission, necessitating the development of early warning systems to anticipate potential impacts and respond in a timely and effective way. Statistical modelling plays a pivotal role in understanding the intricate relationships between climatic factors and infectious disease transmission. For example, time series regression modelling and spatial cluster analysis have been employed to identify risk factors and predict spatial and temporal patterns of infectious diseases. Recently advanced spatio-temporal models and machine learning offer an increasingly robust framework for modelling uncertainty, which is essential in climate-driven disease surveillance due to the dynamic and multifaceted nature of the data. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, including deep learning and neural networks, excel in capturing intricate patterns and hidden relationships within climate and environmental data sets. Web-based data has emerged as a powerful complement to other datasets encompassing climate variables and disease occurrences. However, given the complexity and non-linearity of climate-disease interactions, advanced techniques are required to integrate and analyse these diverse data to obtain more accurate predictions of impending outbreaks, epidemics or pandemics. This article presents an overview of an approach to creating climate-driven early warning systems with a focus on statistical model suitability and selection, along with recommendations for utilizing spatio-temporal and machine learning techniques. By addressing the limitations and embracing the recommendations for future research, we could enhance preparedness and response strategies, ultimately contributing to the safeguarding of public health in the face of evolving climate challenges.

Mortality burden attributable to exceptional PM2.5 air pollution events in Australian cities: A health impact assessment.

Background: People living in Australian cities face increased mortality risks from exposure to extreme air pollution events due to bushfires and dust storms. However, the burden of mortality attributable to exceptional PM2.5 levels has not been well characterised. We assessed the burden of mortality due to PM2.5 pollution events in Australian capital cities between 2001 and 2020. Methods: For this health impact assessment, we obtained data on daily counts of deaths for all non-accidental causes and ages from the Australian National Vital Statistics Register. Daily concentrations of PM2.5 were estimated at a 5 km grid cell, using a Random Forest statistical model of data from air pollution monitoring sites combined with a range of satellite and land use-related data. We calculated the exceptional PM2.5 levels for each extreme pollution exposure day using the deviation from a seasonal and trend loess decomposition model. The burden of mortality was examined using a relative risk concentration-response function suggested in the literature. Findings: Over the 20-year study period, we estimated 1454 (95 % CI 987, 1920) deaths in the major Australian cities attributable to exceptional PM2.5 exposure levels. The mortality burden due to PM2.5 exposure on extreme pollution days was considerable. Variations were observed across Australia. Despite relatively low daily PM2.5 levels compared to global averages, all Australian cities have extreme pollution exposure days, with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guideline standard for 24-h exposure. Our analysis results indicate that nearly one-third of deaths from extreme air pollution exposure can be prevented with a 5 % reduction in PM2.5 levels on days with exceptional pollution. Interpretation: Exposure to exceptional PM2.5 events was associated with an increased mortality burden in Australia's cities. Policies and coordinated action are needed to manage the health risks of extreme air pollution events due to bushfires and dust storms under climate change.

A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales.

Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.

Wood heater smoke and mortality in the Australian Capital Territory: a rapid health impact assessment.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number of deaths and the cost of deaths attributable to wood heater smoke in the Australian Capital Territory. STUDY DESIGN: Rapid health impact assessment, based on fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) data from three outdoor air pollution monitors and published exposure-response functions for natural cause mortality attributed to PM2.5 exposure. SETTING: Australian Capital Territory (population, 2021: 454 000), 2016-2018, 2021, and 2022 (2019 and 2020 excluded because of the impact of extreme bushfires on air quality). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of PM2.5 exposure attributable to wood heaters; numbers of deaths and associated cost of deaths (based on the value of statistical life: $5.3 million) attributable to wood heater smoke. RESULTS: Wood heater emissions contributed an estimated 1.16-1.73 µg/m3 to the annual mean PM2.5 concentration during the three colder years (2017, 2018, 2021), or 17-25% of annual mean exposure, and 0.72 µg/m3 (15%) or 0.89 µg/m3 (13%) during the two milder years (2016, 2022). Using the most conservative exposure-response function, the estimated annual number of deaths attributable to wood heater smoke was 17-26 during the colder three years and 11-15 deaths during the milder two years. Using the least conservative exposure-response function, an estimated 43-63 deaths per year (colder years) and 26-36 deaths per year (milder years) were attributable to wood heater smoke. The estimated annual equivalent cost of deaths was $57-136 million (most conservative exposure-response function) and $140-333 million (least conservative exposure-response function). CONCLUSIONS: The estimated annual number of deaths in the ACT attributable to wood heater PM2.5 pollution is similar to that attributed to the extreme smoke of the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires. The number of wood heaters should be reduced by banning new installations and phasing out existing units in urban and suburban areas.

Five Years of Accurate PM2.5 Measurements Demonstrate the Value of Low-Cost PurpleAir Monitors in Areas Affected by Woodsmoke.

Low-cost optical sensors are used in many countries to monitor fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution, especially in cities and towns with large spatial and temporal variation due to woodsmoke pollution. Previous peer-reviewed research derived calibration equations for PurpleAir (PA) sensors by co-locating PA units at a government regulatory air pollution monitoring site in Armidale, NSW, Australia, a town where woodsmoke is the main source of PM2.5 pollution. The calibrations enabled the PA sensors to provide accurate estimates of PM2.5 that were almost identical to those from the NSW Government reference equipment and allowed the high levels of wintertime PM2.5 pollution and the substantial spatial and temporal variation from wood heaters to be quantified, as well as the estimated costs of premature mortality exceeding $10,000 per wood heater per year. This follow-up study evaluates eight PA sensors co-located at the same government site to check their accuracy over the following four years, using either the original calibrations, the default woodsmoke equation on the PA website for uncalibrated sensors, or the ALT-34 conversion equation (see text). Minimal calibration drift was observed, with year-round correlations, r = 0.98 ± 0.01, and root mean square error (RMSE) = 2.0 µg/m3 for daily average PA PM2.5 vs. reference equipment. The utitilty of the PA sensors without prior calibration at locations affected by woodsmoke was also demonstrated by the year-round correlations of 0.94 and low RMSE between PA (woodsmoke and ALT-34 conversions) and reference PM2.5 at the NSW Government monitoring sites in Orange and Gunnedah. To ensure the reliability of the PA data, basic quality checks are recommended, including the agreement of the two laser sensors in each PA unit and removing any transient spikes affecting only one sensor. In Armidale, from 2019 to 2022, the continuing high spatial variation in the PM2.5 levels observed during the colder months was many times higher than any discrepancies between the PA and reference measurements. Particularly unhealthy PM2.5 levels were noted in southern and eastern central Armidale. The measurements inside two older weatherboard houses in Armidale showed that high outdoor pollution resulted in high pollution inside the houses within 1-2 h. Daily average PM2.5 concentrations available on the PA website allow air pollution at different sites across regions (and countries) to be compared. Such comparisons revealed major elevations in PA PM2.5 at Gunnedah, Orange, Monash (Australian Capital Territory), and Christchurch (New Zealand) during the wood heating season. The data for Gunnedah and Muswellbrook suggest a slight underestimation of PM2.5 at other times of the year when there are proportionately more dust and other larger particles. A network of appropriately calibrated PA sensors can provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal variation in the air pollution that can be used to identify pollution hotspots, improve estimates of population exposure and health costs, and inform public policy.

Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia: challenges, adaptation strategies, and policy gaps.

Climate change presents a major public health concern in Australia, marked by unprecedented wildfires, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Despite these challenges, Australia's response to the climate crisis has been inadequate and subject to change by politics, public sentiment, and global developments. This study illustrates the spatiotemporal patterns of selected climate-related environmental extremes (heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts) across Australia during the past two decades, and summarizes climate adaptation measures and actions that have been taken by the national, state/territory, and local governments. Our findings reveal significant impacts of climate-related environmental extremes on the health and well-being of Australians. While governments have implemented various adaptation strategies, these plans must be further developed to yield concrete actions. Moreover, Indigenous Australians should not be left out in these adaptation efforts. A collaborative, comprehensive approach involving all levels of government is urgently needed to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to the health impacts of climate change.

Trees, Climate Change, and Health: An Urban Planning, Greening and Implementation Perspective.

The In Conversation: Boundary, Spanners, Thinkers and Policy Actors Round Table Series provides a platform for researchers, policy actors, and implementation experts to elevate discussion on emerging issues, present new and upcoming research, and facilitate conversations around impacts and possible solutions. This brief report, on trees, climate change, and health, reflects a conversation between the authors of this paper, along with supporting literature. It explores the potential of green spaces and trees as a viable strategy to address climate change challenges and simultaneously improve population health, well-being, and health equity. In particular, it highlights the public health benefits of trees and green space, the challenges faced in urban areas, and opportunities for the protection, maintenance and regeneration of urban green space.

Justice, culture, and relationships: Australian Indigenous prescription for planetary health.

Indigenous communities shoulder a disproportionate burden of ill health compounded by climate change. In Australia, the oldest surviving cultures have adapted their ecological knowledge over millennia and across climatic ages. However, European colonization has severely curtailed Indigenous peoples' ability to adjust to climate change. An effective response to the climate crisis requires decolonizing processes to reform our relationship with the planet. From an Australian Indigenous perspective, precursors for a self-determined and healthier future are justice, culture, and relationships. We review existing studies on Indigenous-led contemporary climate and health initiatives to assess these precursors. There are examples that highlight the need to attend to issues of restorative justice as the basis for respectful valuing of culture and genuine collaboration to address the climate crisis.

Heatwaves and wildfires suffocate our healthy start to life: time to assess impact and take action.

Adverse environmental exposures in utero and early childhood are known to programme long-term health. Climate change, by contributing to severe heatwaves, wildfires, and other natural disasters, is plausibly associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and an increase in the future burden of chronic diseases in both mothers and their babies. In this Personal View, we highlight the limitations of existing evidence, specifically on the effects of severe heatwave and wildfire events, and compounding syndemic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, on the short-term and long-term physical and mental health of pregnant women and their babies, taking into account the interactions with individual and community vulnerabilities. We highlight a need for an international, interdisciplinary collaborative effort to systematically study the effects of severe climate-related environmental crises on maternal and child health. This will enable informed changes to public health policy and clinical practice necessary to safeguard the health and wellbeing of current and future generations.

A Research Translation, Implementation and Impact Strategy for the Australian Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) Research Network.

Healthy Environments And Lives (HEAL) is the Australian national research network established to support improvements to health, the Australian health system, and the environment in response to the unfolding climate crisis. The HEAL Network comprises researchers, community members and organisations, policymakers, practitioners, service providers, and other stakeholders from diverse backgrounds and sectors. HEAL seeks to protect and improve public health, reduce health inequities and inequalities, and strengthen health system sustainability and resilience in the face of environmental and climate change, all with a commitment to building on the strengths, knowledge, wisdom, and experience of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, culture, and communities. Supporting applied research that can inform policy and practice, and effective research translation, implementation, and impact are important goals across the HEAL Network and essential to achieve its intended outcomes. To aid translation approaches, a research translation, implementation, and impact strategy for the HEAL Network was developed. The strategy has been created to inform and guide research translation across HEAL, emphasising communication, trust, partnerships, and co-design with communities and community organisations as well as the decision-makers responsible for public policies and programs. Development of the strategy was guided by research translation theory and practice and the Health in All Policies and Environment in All Policies frameworks. As described in this paper, the strategy is underpinned by a set of principles and outlines preliminary actions which will be further expanded over the course of the HEAL Network's activities. Through these actions, the HEAL Network is well-positioned to ensure successful research translation and implementation across its program of work.

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Health Services in Northern New South Wales, Australia: A Rapid Review.

Climate change is exposing populations to increasing temperatures and extreme weather events in many parts of Australia. To prepare for climate challenges, there is a growing need for Local Health Districts (LHDs) to identify potential health impacts in their region and strengthen the capacity of the health system to respond accordingly. This rapid review summarised existing evidence and research gaps on the impact of climate change on health and health services in Northern New South Wales (NSW)-a 'hotspot' for climate disaster declarations. We systematically searched online databases and selected 11 peer-reviewed studies published between 2012-2022 for the Northern NSW region. The most explored health outcome was mental health in the aftermath of floods and droughts, followed by increased healthcare utilisation due to respiratory, cardiovascular and mortality outcomes associated with bushfire smoke or heat waves. Future research directions were recommended to understand: the compounding impacts of extreme events on health and the health system, local data needs that can better inform models that predict future health risks and healthcare utilisation for the region, and the needs of vulnerable populations that require a whole-of-system response during the different phases of disasters. In conclusion, the review provided climate change and health research directions the LHD may undertake to inform future adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies relevant to their region.

A comparative study of life-years lost attributable to air particulate matter in Asia-Pacific and European countries.

Air particulate matter (PM) and its harmful effects on human health are of great concern globally due to all-cause and cause-specific mortality impacts across different population groups. While Europe has made significant progress in reducing particulate air pollution-related mortality through innovative technologies and policies, many countries in Asia-Pacific region still rely on high-polluting technologies and have yet to implement effective policies to address this issue, resulting in higher levels of mortality due to air pollution in the region. This study has three aims related to quantifying life-years lost (LYL) attributable to PM, and further separated into ambient PM and household air pollution (HAP): (1) to investigate LYL by causes of death; (2) to compare LYL between Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Europe; and (3) to assess LYL across different socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. The data used come from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and Health Effects Institute (HEI). Our results show that average LYL due to PM in APAC was greater than in Europe, with some Pacific island countries particularly affected by the exposure to HAP. Three quarters of LYL came from premature deaths by ischemic heart disease and stroke, in both continents. There were significant differences between SDI groups for causes of death due to ambient PM and HAP. Our findings call for urgent improvement of clean air to reduce indoor and outdoor air pollution-related mortality in the APAC region.

Epidemic Features of COVID-19 and Potential Impact of Hospital Strain During the Omicron Wave - Australia, 2022.

What is already known about this topic?: Hospitals have experienced a surge in admissions due to the increasing number of Omicron cases. Understanding the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the strain it places on hospitals will provide scientific evidence to help policymakers better prepare for and respond to future outbreaks. What is added by this report?: The case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 1.4 per 1,000 persons during the Omicron wave. Over 90% of COVID-19-related deaths occurred in individuals aged 60 years or older, with pre-existing chronic conditions such as cardiac conditions and dementia, particularly among males aged 80 years or older. What are the implications for public health practice?: Public health policy is essential for preparing and preserving medical resource capacity, as well as recruiting additional clinicians and front-line staff in hospitals to address the increased demand. High-risk individuals should be prioritized for healthcare, vaccines, and targeted interventions.

Bushfires and Mothers' Mental Health in Pregnancy and Recent Post-Partum.

BACKGROUND: The compounding effects of climate change catastrophes such as bushfires and pandemics impose significant burden on individuals, societies, and their economies. The enduring effects of such syndemics on mental health remain poorly understood, particularly for at-risk populations (e.g., pregnant women and newborns). The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of direct and indirect exposure to the 2019/20 Australian Capital Territory and South-Eastern New South Wales bushfires followed by COVID-19 on the mental health and wellbeing of pregnant women and mothers with newborn babies. METHODS: All women who were pregnant, had given birth, or were within three months of conceiving during the 2019/2020 bushfires, lived within the catchment area, and provided consent were invited to participate. Those who consented were asked to complete three online surveys. Mental health was assessed with the DASS-21 and the WHO-5. Bushfire, smoke, and COVID-19 exposures were assessed by self-report. Cross-sectional associations between exposures and mental health measures were tested with hierarchical regression models. RESULTS: Of the women who participated, and had minimum data (n = 919), most (>75%) reported at least one acute bushfire exposure and 63% reported severe smoke exposure. Compared to Australian norms, participants had higher depression (+12%), anxiety (+35%), and stress (+43%) scores. Women with greater exposure to bushfires/smoke but not COVID-19 had poorer scores on all mental health measures. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide novel evidence that the mental health of pregnant women and mothers of newborn babies is vulnerable to major climate catastrophes such as bushfires.

Bushfire Smoke and Children's Health-Exploring a Communication Gap.

The "Black Summer" bushfires of 2019/2020 in Australia generated smoke that persisted for over three months, mainly affecting Eastern Australia. Most communication strategies focused on the fire itself, revealing a knowledge gap in effective communication of the impact of bushfire smoke on health, especially for children and those living in non-English speaking minority groups. To address this, semi-structured qualitative interviews were undertaken with sixteen adults with caring (n = 11) or educational (n = 5) responsibilities for primary-school aged children (5-12 years, with some also having children up to 16 years) who had direct experience of the "Black Summer" bushfires. Overall, 43% (n = 7) of the sample spoke English as a first language, 25% (n = 4) spoke Turkish, with the remainder speaking Persian, Arabic, and Spanish. Thematic inductive qualitative content analysis revealed predominant themes of the role of parents and caregivers as conduits and curators of information. Air quality apps were the most common source of information. Language barriers and the lack of child-friendly methods of communication were highlighted as particular challenges. This qualitative study provides evidence for future development of communication strategies to better serve culturally and linguistically diverse individuals and the children in their care.

The 2022 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia unprepared and paying the price.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020 and 2021. It examines five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the fifth year of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Within just two years, Australia has experienced two unprecedented national catastrophes - the 2019-2020 summer heatwaves and bushfires and the 2021-2022 torrential rains and flooding. Such events are costing lives and displacing tens of thousands of people. Further, our analysis shows that there are clear signs that Australia's health emergency management capacity substantially decreased in 2021. We find some signs of progress with respect to health and climate change. The states continue to lead the way in health and climate change adaptation planning, with the Victorian plan being published in early 2022. At the national level, we note progress in health and climate change research funding by the National Health and Medical Research Council. We now also see an acceleration in the uptake of electric vehicles and continued uptake of and employment in renewable energy. However, we also find Australia's transition to renewables and zero carbon remains unacceptably slow, and the Australian Government's continuing failure to produce a national climate change and health adaptation plan places the health and lives of Australians at unnecessary risk today, which does not bode well for the future.