Long-term changes and effects of significant fishery closures on marine survival and biological characteristics of wild and hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Long-term data, over four decades, were analysed to examine temporal trends in survival indices and phenotypic characteristics of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar returning to the Burrishoole national salmonid monitored river in Ireland. Before 2007, the marine drift net fishery was the major capture method for salmon in Irish home waters, accounting for over 70% of the commercial catch and targeting mixed stocks from multiple rivers. The authors examined size differences in fish captured in marine and freshwater environments and the impact of closure of this fishery on long-term survival indices and fish size. Return rates to Irish home waters for wild one sea-winter (1SW) and a ranching strain of hatchery-reared 1SW Atlantic salmon stocks showed a declining trend up to the time of closure of the fishery (1985-2006). In contrast, closure of the drift net fishery resulted in the anticipated increase in return rate to fresh water in the short term. Nonetheless, the short-term upward trend was not sustained in the following years: the trend for return rate to fresh water (1985-2017) was found to be neither increasing nor decreasing. Mean return rates to fresh water 10 years pre- and post-closure of the drift net fishery increased from 7.4% to 8.5% for wild 1SW and significantly from 2.4% to 3.7% for ranched 1SW suggesting some benefit had accrued as a consequence of drift net closure. For ranched 1SW salmon, entry into fresh water was found to be occurring earlier, which is likely a phenotypical response to changing climatic conditions. A declining trend in fish length was found in the pre-closure period, followed by a more stable trend post-closure. Similar patterns were observed for fish condition and weight parameters. Significantly, a step change in fish size occurred just before the closure of the Irish drift net fishery in both marine and freshwater habitats, when the average length decreased by 3.8 and 4.6 cm, respectively, between 2005 and 2006. This suggests an environmental effect on the population, rather than a fishery closure effect. Similar trends in fish length were observed in wild 1SW salmon kelts and ranched 2SW salmon in fresh water. The stable but not increasing trends post-closure suggest that conditions at sea may not be improving. These findings show that a clear decline occurred in wild and ranched salmon populations' return rates and lengths, while the drift net fishery was still active. Closure of the fishery did not result in a rebound to pre-exploitation levels of these indicators. Nonetheless, the trends went from declining to stable, suggesting the closure helped mitigate the impact of unfavourable environmental and rearing habitat conditions. These findings, based on four decades of data, highlight the urgency of strengthening monitoring of fisheries populations in face of climate change, so as to guide precautionary management measures that, as this study suggests, may be able to mitigate its impacts.

Assessing lake ecological status across a trophic gradient through environmental and biological variables.

The Water Framework Directive was widely welcomed because it sought to integrate chemical and biological elements of aquatic ecosystems to achieve 'good ecological status', reflecting at most slight anthropogenic impact. However, implementation has been criticised because of the failure to adequately integrate these elements and assess status of the whole ecosystem. In this study, a suite of environmental and biotic variables was measured to assess their relative importance as predictors of lake status for 50 lakes in the north of the island of Ireland. Total Phosphorus (TP) had a strong effect on taxon biomasses and ecological quality ratios (EQR) for most taxa, as expected, but other environmental variables, such as pH, water colour and spatial location, were also important. Most variance in mean EQR, the average of the taxon values, was predicted by five environmental variables (chlorophyll a, TP, population density, water colour and elevation) and whether (alien) cyprinid fish were present. Oligotrophic lakes with cyprinid fish had lower mean EQRs than cyprinid-free lakes, indicating the importance of recording species introductions when assessing lake status. Strong evidence for bottom-up effects was also detected, and cyprinids probably influenced trophic structure by increasing nutrient release from the sediment rather than by top-down effects. Phytoplankton biomass, fish biomasses, and the percentage of predatory fish, increased with TP. Our results further emphasize the need to adopt a more integrated approach when assessing lake status.

The South African Tuberculosis Care Cascade: Estimated Losses and Methodological Challenges.

Background: While tuberculosis incidence and mortality are declining in South Africa, meeting the goals of the End TB Strategy requires an invigorated programmatic response informed by accurate data. Enumerating the losses at each step in the care cascade enables appropriate targeting of interventions and resources. Methods: We estimated the tuberculosis burden; the number and proportion of individuals with tuberculosis who accessed tests, had tuberculosis diagnosed, initiated treatment, and successfully completed treatment for all tuberculosis cases, for those with drug-susceptible tuberculosis (including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfected cases) and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Estimates were derived from national electronic tuberculosis register data, laboratory data, and published studies. Results: The overall tuberculosis burden was estimated to be 532005 cases (range, 333760-764480 cases), with successful completion of treatment in 53% of cases. Losses occurred at multiple steps: 5% at test access, 13% at diagnosis, 12% at treatment initiation, and 17% at successful treatment completion. Overall losses were similar among all drug-susceptible cases and those with HIV coinfection (54% and 52%, respectively, successfully completed treatment). Losses were substantially higher among rifampicin- resistant cases, with only 22% successfully completing treatment. Conclusion: Although the vast majority of individuals with tuberculosis engaged the public health system, just over half were successfully treated. Urgent efforts are required to improve implementation of existing policies and protocols to close gaps in tuberculosis diagnosis, treatment initiation, and successful treatment completion.