Understanding the response of the Western Mediterranean cephalopods to environment and fishing in a context of alleged winners of change.

Increasing impacts of both fisheries and climate change have resulted in shifts in the structure and functioning of marine communities. One recurrent observation is the rise of cephalopods as fish recede. This is generally attributed to the removal of main predators and competitors by fishing, while mechanistic evidence is still lacking. In addition, climate change may influence cephalopods due to their high environmental sensitivity. We aim to unveil the effects of different anthropogenic and environmental drivers at different scales focusing on the cephalopod community of the Western Mediterranean Sea. We investigate several ecological indicators offering a wide range of information about their ecology, and statistically relating them with environmental, biotic and fisheries drivers. Our results highlight non-linear changes of indicators along with spatial differences in their responses. Overall, the environment drivers have greater effects than biotic and local human impacts with contrasting effects of temperature across the geographic gradient. We conclude that cephalopods may be impacted by climate change in the future while not necessary through positive warming influence, which should make us cautious when referring to them as generalized winners of current changes.

Mapping the habitat refugia of Isidella elongata under climate change and trawling impacts to preserve Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the Mediterranean.

The bamboo-coral Isidella elongata is a key habitat-forming species in the deep Mediterranean Sea. This alcyonacean is listed as an indicator of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs) and as Critically Endangered due to bottom trawling impacts. In this work, a modeling approach was used to predict and map the habitat suitability of I. elongata in the Mediterranean Sea under current environmental conditions. Occurrence data were modeled as a function of environmental parameters. Using climate change scenarios and fishing effort data, the risk of climate change and fisheries impacts on habitat suitability were estimated, and climate refugia were identified. A drastic loss of habitat is predicted, and climate change scenarios suggest a loss of 60% of suitable habitats by 2100. In the central Mediterranean, climate refugia overlapped with active fishing grounds. This study represents the first attempt to identify hot spots for the protection of soft bottom Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems for the entire Mediterranean Sea, and highlights areas most at risk from trawling. This work is relevant to the objectives of the EU Marine Strategy Framework and Maritime Spatial Planning Directives, the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 regarding priority areas for conservation.

Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic.

The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0°-9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.

Process-driven and biological characterisation and mapping of seabed habitats sensitive to trawling.

The increase of anthropogenic pressures on the marine environment together with the necessity of a sustainable management of marine living resources have underlined the need to map and model coastal environments, particularly for the purposes of spatial planning and for the implementation of integrated ecosystem-based management approach. The present study compares outputs of a process-driven benthic habitat sensitivity (PDS) model to the structure, composition and distribution of benthic invertebrates in the Eastern English Channel and southern part of the North Sea. Trawl disturbance indicators (TDI) computed from species biological traits and benthic community composition were produced from samples collected with a bottom trawl. The TDI was found to be highly correlated to the PDS further validating the latter's purpose to identify natural process-driven pattern of sensitivity. PDS was found to reflect an environmental potential that may no longer be fully observable in the field and difference with in situ biological observations could be partially explained by the spatial distribution of fishery pressure on the seafloor. The management implication of these findings are discussed and we suggest that, used in conjunction with TDI approaches, PDS may help monitor management effort by evaluating the difference between the current state and the presumed optimal environmental status of marine benthic habitats.

Spatial, socio-economic, and ecological implications of incorporating minimum size constraints in marine protected area network design.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are the cornerstone of most marine conservation strategies, but the effectiveness of each one partly depends on its size and distance to other MPAs in a network. Despite this, current recommendations on ideal MPA size and spacing vary widely, and data are lacking on how these constraints might influence the overall spatial characteristics, socio-economic impacts, and connectivity of the resultant MPA networks. To address this problem, we tested the impact of applying different MPA size constraints in English waters. We used the Marxan spatial prioritization software to identify a network of MPAs that met conservation feature targets, whilst minimizing impacts on fisheries; modified the Marxan outputs with the MinPatch software to ensure each MPA met a minimum size; and used existing data on the dispersal distances of a range of species found in English waters to investigate the likely impacts of such spatial constraints on the region's biodiversity. Increasing MPA size had little effect on total network area or the location of priority areas, but as MPA size increased, fishing opportunity cost to stakeholders increased. In addition, as MPA size increased, the number of closely connected sets of MPAs in networks and the average distance between neighboring MPAs decreased, which consequently increased the proportion of the planning region that was isolated from all MPAs. These results suggest networks containing large MPAs would be more viable for the majority of the region's species that have small dispersal distances, but dispersal between MPA sets and spill-over of individuals into unprotected areas would be reduced. These findings highlight the importance of testing the impact of applying different MPA size constraints because there are clear trade-offs that result from the interaction of size, number, and distribution of MPAs in a network.