Revealing the complexity of vampire bat rabies "spillover transmission".

BACKGROUND: The term virus 'spillover' embodies a highly complex phenomenon and is often used to refer to viral transmission from a primary reservoir host to a new, naïve yet susceptible and permissive host species. Spillover transmission can result in a virus becoming pathogenic, causing disease and death to the new host if successful infection and transmission takes place. MAIN TEXT: The scientific literature across diverse disciplines has used the terms virus spillover, spillover transmission, cross-species transmission, and host shift almost indistinctly to imply the complex process of establishment of a virus from an original host (source/donor) to a naïve host (recipient), which have close or distant taxonomic or evolutionary ties. Spillover transmission may result in unsuccessful onward transmission, if the virus dies off before propagation. Alternatively, successful viral establishment in the new host can occur if subsequent secondary transmission among individuals of the same novel species and among other sympatric susceptible species occurred. As such, virus spillover transmission is a common yet highly complex phenomenon that encompasses multiple subtle stages that can be deconstructed to be studied separately to better understand the drivers of disease emergence. Rabies virus (RABV) is a well-documented viral pathogen which still inflicts heavy impact on humans, companion animals, wildlife, and livestock throughout Latin America due substantial spatial temporal and ecological-natural and expansional-overlap with several virus reservoir hosts. Thereby, the rabies disease system represents a robust avenue through which the drivers and uncertainties surrounding spillover transmission can be unravel at its different subtle stages to better understand how they may be affected by coarse, medium, and fine scale variables. CONCLUSIONS: The continued study of viral spillover transmission necessitates the elucidation of its complexities to better assess the cross-scale impacts of ecological forces linked to the propensity of spillover success. Improving capacities to reconstruct and predict spillover transmission would prevent public health impacts on those most at risk populations across the globe.

A recombinant rabies vaccine that prevents viral shedding in rabid common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus).

Vampire bat transmitted rabies (VBR) is a continuing burden to public health and agricultural sectors in Latin America, despite decades-long efforts to control the disease by culling bat populations. Culling has been shown to disperse bats, leading to an increased spread of rabies. Thus, non-lethal strategies to control VBR, such as vaccination, are desired. Here, we evaluated the safety and efficacy of a viral-vectored recombinant mosaic glycoprotein rabies vaccine candidate (RCN-MoG) in vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) of unknown history of rabies exposure captured in México and transported to the United States. Vaccination with RCN-MoG was demonstrated to be safe, even in pregnant females, as no evidence of lesions or adverse effects were observed. We detected rabies neutralizing antibodies in 28% (8/29) of seronegative bats post-vaccination. Survival proportions of adult bats after rabies virus (RABV) challenge ranged from 55-100% and were not significantly different among treatments, pre- or post-vaccination serostatus, and route of vaccination, while eight pups (1-2.5 months of age) used as naïve controls all succumbed to challenge (P<0.0001). Importantly, we found that vaccination with RCN-MoG appeared to block viral shedding, even when infection proved lethal. Using real-time PCR, we did not detect RABV nucleic acid in the saliva samples of 9/10 vaccinated bats that succumbed to rabies after challenge (one was inconclusive). In contrast, RABV nucleic acid was detected in saliva samples from 71% of unvaccinated bats (10/14 sampled, plus one inconclusive) that died of the disease, including pups. Low seroconversion rates post-vaccination and high survival of non-vaccinated bats, perhaps due to earlier natural exposure, limited our conclusions regarding vaccine efficacy. However, our findings suggest a potential transmission-blocking effect of vaccination with RCN-MoG that could provide a promising strategy for controlling VBR in Latin America beyond longstanding culling programs.

Divergent Rabies Virus Variant of Probable Bat Origin in 2 Gray Foxes, New Mexico, USA.

In the Western Hemisphere, bat-associated rabies viruses (RABVs) have established independent transmission cycles in multiple mammal hosts, forming genetically distinct lineages. In New Mexico, USA, skunks, bats, and gray foxes are rabies reservoir hosts and represent a public health risk because of encounters with humans. During 2015 and 2019, two previously undescribed RABVs were detected in 2 gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) in Lincoln County, New Mexico. Phylogenetic analysis of the nucleoprotein gene indicated that the isolates are a novel RABV variant. These 2 cases probably represent repeated spillover events from an unknown bat reservoir to gray foxes. Molecular analysis of rabies cases across New Mexico identified that other cross-species transmission events were the result of viral variants previously known to be enzootic to New Mexico. Despite a robust rabies public health surveillance system in the United States, advances in testing and surveillance techniques continue to identify previously unrecognized zoonotic pathogens.

The Importance of Accurate Host Species Identification in the Framework of Rabies Surveillance, Control and Elimination.

Accurate host identification is paramount to understand disease epidemiology and to apply appropriate control measures. This is especially important for multi-host pathogens such as the rabies virus, a major and almost invariably fatal zoonosis that has mobilized unanimous engagement at an international level towards the final goal of zero human deaths due to canine rabies. Currently, diagnostic laboratories implement a standardized identification using taxonomic keys. However, this method is challenged by high and undiscovered biodiversity, decomposition of carcasses and subjective misevaluation, as has been attested to by findings from a cohort of 242 archived specimens collected across Sub-Saharan Africa and submitted for rabies diagnosis. We applied two simple and cheap methods targeting the Cytochrome b and Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I to confirm the initial classification. We therefore suggest prioritizing a standardized protocol that includes, as a first step, the implementation of taxonomic keys at a family or subfamily level, followed by the molecular characterization of the host species.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in a Georgia School District-United States, December 2020-January 2021.

BACKGROUND: To inform prevention strategies, we assessed the extent of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and settings in which transmission occurred in a Georgia public school district. METHODS: During 1 December 2020-22 January 2021, SARS-CoV-2-infected index cases and their close contacts in schools were identified by school and public health officials. For in-school contacts, we assessed symptoms and offered SARS-CoV-2 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing; performed epidemiologic investigations and whole-genome sequencing to identify in-school transmission; and calculated secondary attack rate (SAR) by school setting (eg, sports, elementary school classroom), index case role (ie, staff, student), and index case symptomatic status. RESULTS: We identified 86 index cases and 1119 contacts, 688 (61.5%) of whom received testing. Fifty-nine of 679 (8.7%) contacts tested positive; 15 of 86 (17.4%) index cases resulted in ≥2 positive contacts. Among 55 persons testing positive with available symptom data, 31 (56.4%) were asymptomatic. Highest SARs were in indoor, high-contact sports settings (23.8% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 12.7%-33.3%]), staff meetings/lunches (18.2% [95% CI, 4.5%-31.8%]), and elementary school classrooms (9.5% [95% CI, 6.5%-12.5%]). The SAR was higher for staff (13.1% [95% CI, 9.0%-17.2%]) vs student index cases (5.8% [95% CI, 3.6%-8.0%]) and for symptomatic (10.9% [95% CI, 8.1%-13.9%]) vs asymptomatic index cases (3.0% [95% CI, 1.0%-5.5%]). CONCLUSIONS: Indoor sports may pose a risk to the safe operation of in-person learning. Preventing infection in staff members, through measures that include coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination, is critical to reducing in-school transmission. Because many positive contacts were asymptomatic, contact tracing should be paired with testing, regardless of symptoms.

Use of partial N-gene sequences as a tool to monitor progress on rabies control and elimination efforts in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is one of the African countries most affected by rabies. A coarse catalog of rabies viruses (RABV) was created as a benchmark to assess the impact of control and elimination activities. We evaluated a 726 bp amplicon at the end of the N-gene to infer viral lineages in circulation using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for phylogenetic reconstruction. We sequenced 228 brain samples from wild and domestic animals collected in five Ethiopian regions during 2010-2017. Results identified co-circulating RABV lineages that are causing recurrent spillover infections into wildlife and domestic animals. We found no evidence of importation of RABVs from other African countries or vaccine-induced cases in the area studied. A divergent RABV lineage might be involved in an independent rabies cycle in jackals. This investigation provides a feasible approach to assess rabies control and elimination efforts in resource-limited countries.

A Cross Sectional Sampling Reveals Novel Coronaviruses in Bat Populations of Georgia.

Mammal-associated coronaviruses have a long evolutionary history across global bat populations, which makes them prone to be the most likely ancestral origins of coronavirus-associated epidemics and pandemics globally. Limited coronavirus research has occurred at the junction of Europe and Asia, thereby investigations in Georgia are critical to complete the coronavirus diversity map in the region. We conducted a cross-sectional coronavirus survey in bat populations at eight locations of Georgia, from July to October of 2014. We tested 188 anal swab samples, remains of previous pathogen discovery studies, for the presence of coronaviruses using end-point pan-coronavirus RT-PCR assays. Samples positive for a 440 bp amplicon were Sanger sequenced to infer coronavirus subgenus or species through phylogenetic reconstructions. Overall, we found a 24.5% positive rate, with 10.1% for Alphacoronavirus and 14.4% for Betacoronavirus. Albeit R. euryale, R. ferrumequinum, M. blythii and M. emarginatus were found infected with both CoV genera, we could not rule out CoV co-infection due to limitation of the sequencing method used and sample availability. Based on phylogenetic inferences and genetic distances at nucleotide and amino acid levels, we found one putative new subgenus and three new species of Alphacoronavirus, and two new species of Betacoronavirus.

Defining New Pathways to Manage the Ongoing Emergence of Bat Rabies in Latin America.

Rabies transmitted by common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) has been known since the early 1900s but continues to expand geographically and in the range of species and environments affected. In this review, we present current knowledge of the epidemiology and management of rabies in D. rotundus and argue that it can be reasonably considered an emerging public health threat. We identify knowledge gaps related to the landscape determinants of the bat reservoir, reduction in bites on humans and livestock, and social barriers to prevention. We discuss how new technologies including autonomously-spreading vaccines and reproductive suppressants targeting bats might manage both rabies and undesirable growth of D. rotundus populations. Finally, we highlight widespread under-reporting of human and animal mortality and the scarcity of studies that quantify the efficacy of control measures such as bat culling. Collaborations between researchers and managers will be crucial to implement the next generation of rabies management in Latin America.

Abortive vampire bat rabies infections in Peruvian peridomestic livestock.

Rabies virus infections normally cause universally lethal encephalitis across mammals. However, 'abortive infections' which are resolved prior to the onset of lethal disease have been described in bats and a variety of non-reservoir species. Here, we surveyed rabies virus neutralizing antibody titers in 332 unvaccinated livestock of 5 species from a vampire bat rabies endemic region of southern Peru where livestock are the main food source for bats. We detected rabies virus neutralizing antibody titers in 11, 5 and 3.6% of cows, goats and sheep respectively and seropositive animals did not die from rabies within two years after sampling. Seroprevalence was correlated with the number of local livestock rabies mortalities reported one year prior but also one year after sample collection. This suggests that serological status of livestock can indicate the past and future levels of rabies risk to non-reservoir hosts. To our knowledge, this is the first report of anti-rabies antibodies among goats and sheep, suggesting widespread abortive infections among livestock in vampire bat rabies endemic areas. Future research should resolve the within-host biology underlying clearance of rabies infections. Cost-effectiveness analyses are also needed to evaluate whether serological monitoring of livestock can be a viable complement to current monitoring of vampire bat rabies risk based on animal mortalities alone.

Unexpected rabies variant identified in kinkajou (Potos flavus), Mato Grosso, Brazil.

A second case of a novel rabies variant described once in a capuchin monkey from Mato Grosso, Brazil, was discovered in a rabid wild kinkajou from the same region, indicating a public health risk following exposure to either of the two animals.

Clinical Presentation and Serologic Response during a Rabies Epizootic in Captive Common Vampire Bats (Desmodus rotundus).

We report mortality events in a group of 123 common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) captured in México and housed for a rabies vaccine efficacy study in Madison, Wisconsin. Bat mortalities occurred in México and Wisconsin, but rabies cases reported herein are only those that occurred after arrival in Madison (n = 15). Bats were confirmed positive for rabies virus (RABV) by the direct fluorescent antibody test. In accordance with previous reports, we observed long incubation periods (more than 100 days), variability in clinical signs prior to death, excretion of virus in saliva, and changes in rabies neutralizing antibody (rVNA) titers post-infection. We observed that the furious form of rabies (aggression, hyper-salivation, and hyper-excitability) manifested in three bats, which has not been reported in vampire bat studies since 1936. RABV was detected in saliva of 5/9 bats, 2-5 days prior to death, but was not detected in four of those bats that had been vaccinated shortly after exposure. Bats from different capture sites were involved in two separate outbreaks, and phylogenetic analysis revealed differences in the glycoprotein gene sequences of RABV isolated from each event, indicating that two different lineages were circulating separately during capture at each site.

Evaluation of rabies virus characterization to enhance early detection of important rabies epizootic events in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate rabies virus (RABV) characterization data obtained from animal specimens submitted to the US public health rabies surveillance system and propose a standardized approach to sample selection for RABV characterization that could enhance early detection of important rabies epizootic events in the United States. SAMPLE: United States public health rabies surveillance system data collected from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2015. PROCEDURES: Data were reviewed to identify RABV-positive specimens for which virus characterization would likely provide information regarding any of 4 overarching events (discovery of novel variants, translocation of RABV variants, host-shift events, and any unusual rabies-related event) that could substantially alter animal rabies epizootiology in the United States. These specimens were designated as specimens of epizootiological importance (SEIs). Estimates of the additional number of specimens that public health laboratories could expect to process each year if all SEIs underwent RABV characterization were calculated. RESULTS: During the 6-year period, the mean annual number of SEIs was 855 (95% CI, 739 to 971); the mean number of SEIs that underwent virus characterization was 270 (95% CI, 187 to 353). Virus characterization of all SEIs would be expected to increase the public health laboratories' test load by approximately 585 (95% CI, 543 to 625) specimens/y. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Prioritization of RABV characterization of SEIs may improve early detection of rabies events associated with RABV host shifts, variant translocations, and importation. Characterization of SEIs may help refine wildlife rabies management practices. Each public health laboratory should evaluate testing of SEIs to ensure diagnostic laboratory capacity is not overstretched.

Evaluation of species identification and rabies virus characterization among bat rabies cases in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate species identification and rabies virus (RABV) characterization among samples from bats submitted for rabies testing in the United States and assess whether a standardized approach to specimen selection for RABV characterization could enhance detection of a sentinel event in virus dissemination among bats. SAMPLE: United States public health rabies surveillance system data collected in January 2010 through December 2015. PROCEDURES: The number of rabies-tested bats for which species was reported and the number of RABV-positive samples for which virus characterization would likely provide information regarding introduction of novel RABV variants and translocation and host-shift events were calculated. These specimens were designated as specimens of epizootiological importance (SEIs). Additionally, the estimated test load that public health laboratories could expect if all SEIs underwent RABV characterization was determined. RESULTS: Species was reported for 74,928 of 160,017 (47%) bats submitted for rabies testing. Identified SEIs were grouped in 3 subcategories, namely nonindigenous bats; bats in southern border states, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands; and bats of species that are not commonly found to be inflected with RABV. Annually, 692 (95% CI, 600 to 784) SEIs were identified, of which only 295 (95% CI, 148 to 442) underwent virus characterization. Virus characterization of all SEIs would be expected to increase public health laboratories' overall test load by 397 (95% CI, 287 to 506) samples each year. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Species identification and RABV characterization may aid detection of a sentinel event in bat RABV dissemination. With additional resources, RABV characterization of all SEIs as a standardized approach to testing could contribute to knowledge of circulating bat RABV variants.

Rabies surveillance in the United States during 2015.

OBJECTIVE To describe rabies and rabies-related events occurring during 2015 in the United States. DESIGN Observational study based on passive surveillance data. ANIMALS All animals submitted for rabies testing in the United States during 2015. PROCEDURES State and territorial public health programs provided data on animals submitted for rabies testing in 2015. Data were analyzed temporally and geographically to assess trends in domestic and sylvatic animal rabies cases. RESULTS During 2015, 50 states and Puerto Rico reported 5,508 rabid animals to the CDC, representing an 8.7% decrease from the 6,033 rabid animals reported in 2014. Of the 5,508 cases of animal rabies, 5,088 (92.4%) involved wildlife. Relative contributions by the major animal groups were as follows: 1,704 (30.9%) bats, 1,619 (29.4%) raccoons, 1,365 (24.8%) skunks, 325 (5.9%) foxes, 244 (4.4%) cats, 85 (1.5%) cattle, and 67 (1.2%) dogs. There was a 4.1% decrease in the number of samples submitted for testing in 2015, compared with the number submitted in 2014. Three human rabies deaths were reported in 2015, compared with only 1 in 2014. A 65-year-old man in Massachusetts was bitten by a rabid dog while abroad. A 77-year-old woman in Wyoming had contact with a bat. A 54-year-old man in Puerto Rico was bitten by a mongoose. The only connection among these 3 cases was that none received postexposure prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Laboratory testing of animals suspected to be rabid remains a critical public health function and continues to be a cost-effective method to directly influence human rabies postexposure prophylaxis recommendations. (J Am Vet Med Assoc 2017;250:1117-1130).

An inter- laboratory proficiency testing exercise for rabies diagnosis in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The direct fluorescent antibody test (DFA), is performed in all rabies reference laboratories across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Despite DFA being a critical capacity in the control of rabies, there is not a standardized protocol in the region. We describe the results of the first inter-laboratory proficiency exercise of national rabies laboratories in LAC countries as part of the regional efforts towards dog-maintained rabies elimination in the American region. Twenty three laboratories affiliated to the Ministries of Health and Ministries of Agriculture participated in this exercise. In addition, the laboratories completed an online questionnaire to assess laboratory practices. Answers to the online questionnaire indicated large variability in the laboratories throughput, equipment used, protocols availability, quality control standards and biosafety requirements. Our results will inform actions to improve and harmonize laboratory rabies capacities across LAC in support for the regional efforts towards elimination of dog-maintained rabies.

Successful strategies implemented towards the elimination of canine rabies in the Western Hemisphere.

Almost all cases of human rabies result from dog bites, making the elimination of canine rabies a global priority. During recent decades, many countries in the Western Hemisphere have carried out large-scale dog vaccination campaigns, controlled their free-ranging dog populations and enforced legislation for responsible pet ownership. This article reviews progress in eliminating canine rabies from the Western Hemisphere. After briefly summarizing the history of control efforts and describing the approaches listed above, we note that programs in some countries have been hindered by societal attitudes and severe economic disparities, which underlines the need to discuss measures that will be required to complete the elimination of canine rabies throughout the region. We also note that there is a constant threat for dog-maintained epizootics to re-occur, so as long as dog-maintained rabies "hot spots" are still present, free-roaming dog populations remain large, herd immunity becomes low and dog-derived rabies lyssavirus (RABLV) variants continue to circulate in close proximity to rabies-naïve dog populations. The elimination of dog-maintained rabies will be only feasible if both dog-maintained and dog-derived RABLV lineages and variants are permanently eliminated. This may be possible by keeping dog herd immunity above 70% at all times, fostering sustained laboratory-based surveillance through reliable rabies diagnosis and RABLV genetic typing in dogs, domestic animals and wildlife, as well as continuing to educate the population on the risk of rabies transmission, prevention and responsible pet ownership. Complete elimination of canine rabies requires permanent funding, with governments and people committed to make it a reality. An accompanying article reviews the history and epidemiology of canine rabies in the Western Hemisphere, beginning with its introduction during the period of European colonization, and discusses how spillovers of viruses between dogs and various wild carnivores will affect future eradication efforts (Velasco-Villa et al., 2017).

The history of rabies in the Western Hemisphere.

Before the introduction of control programs in the 20th century, rabies in domestic dogs occurred throughout the Western Hemisphere. However, historical records and phylogenetic analysis of multiple virus isolates indicate that, before the arrival of the first European colonizers, rabies virus was likely present only in bats and skunks. Canine rabies was either rare or absent among domestic dogs of Native Americans, and first arrived when many new dog breeds were imported during the period of European colonization. The introduction of the cosmopolitan dog rabies lyssavirus variant and the marked expansion of the dog population provided ideal conditions for the flourishing of enzootic canine rabies. The shift of dog-maintained viruses into gray foxes, coyotes, skunks and other wild mesocarnivores throughout the Americas and to mongooses in the Caribbean has augmented the risk of human rabies exposures and has complicated control efforts. At the same time, the continued presence of bat rabies poses novel challenges in the absolute elimination of canine and human rabies. This article compiles existing historical and phylogenetic evidence of the origins and subsequent dynamics of rabies in the Western Hemisphere, from the era preceding the arrival of the first European colonizers through the present day. A companion article reviews the current status of canine rabies control throughout the Western Hemisphere and steps that will be required to achieve and maintain its complete elimination (Velasco-Villa et al., 2017).

A Pan-Lyssavirus Taqman Real-Time RT-PCR Assay for the Detection of Highly Variable Rabies virus and Other Lyssaviruses.

Rabies, resulting from infection by Rabies virus (RABV) and related lyssaviruses, is one of the most deadly zoonotic diseases and is responsible for up to 70,000 estimated human deaths worldwide each year. Rapid and accurate laboratory diagnosis of rabies is essential for timely administration of post-exposure prophylaxis in humans and control of the disease in animals. Currently, only the direct fluorescent antibody (DFA) test is recommended for routine rabies diagnosis. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) based diagnostic methods have been widely adapted for the diagnosis of other viral pathogens, but there is currently no widely accepted rapid real-time RT-PCR assay for the detection of all lyssaviruses. In this study, we demonstrate the validation of a newly developed multiplex real-time RT-PCR assay named LN34, which uses a combination of degenerate primers and probes along with probe modifications to achieve superior coverage of the Lyssavirus genus while maintaining sensitivity and specificity. The primers and probes of the LN34 assay target the highly conserved non-coding leader region and part of the nucleoprotein (N) coding sequence of the Lyssavirus genome to maintain assay robustness. The probes were further modified by locked nucleotides to increase their melting temperature to meet the requirements for an optimal real-time RT-PCR assay. The LN34 assay was able to detect all RABV variants and other lyssaviruses in a validation panel that included representative RABV isolates from most regions of the world as well as representatives of 13 additional Lyssavirus species. The LN34 assay was successfully used for both ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnosis of over 200 clinical samples as well as field derived surveillance samples. This assay represents a major improvement over previously published rabies specific RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR assays because of its ability to universally detect RABV and other lyssaviruses, its high throughput capability and its simplicity of use, which can be quickly adapted in a laboratory to enhance the capacity of rabies molecular diagnostics. The LN34 assay provides an alternative approach for rabies diagnostics, especially in rural areas and rabies endemic regions that lack the conditions and broad experience required to run the standard DFA assay.

Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies.

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.