Implementation of AZD7442 (Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab) COVID-19 Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in the Largest Health Maintenance Organization in Israel: Real-world Uptake and Sociodemographic and Clinical Characteristics Across Immunocompromised Patient Groups.

INTRODUCTION: AZD7442 is a combination of two neutralizing antibodies (tixagevimab/cilgavimab) with demonstrated efficacy in reducing the risk of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 ≤ 6 months after administration. On February 15, 2022, the Israeli Ministry of Health (IMoH) authorized the administration of 300 mg AZD7442 as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection among immunocompromised individuals aged ≥ 12 years. This study describes the real-world uptake of AZD7442 in Israel. METHODS: This descriptive, observational study analyzed data from Israel's largest health maintenance organization, Clalit Health Services (CHS). Individuals were assessed for AZD7442 eligibility between February 13 and December 11, 2022, and were included if they were aged ≥ 12 years, had ≥ 1 year of continuous CHS membership, had ≥ 1 moderate or severe immunocompromising condition, and were eligible for AZD7442 per IMoH recommendations during this time frame. RESULTS: Overall, 19,161 AZD7442-eligible individuals with immunocompromising conditions were identified during the study period; 2829 (14.8%) received AZD7442. A higher proportion of individuals receiving AZD7442 were older (aged ≥ 65 years), male, not current smokers and residents in large cities; required more physician visits (> 50 visits); and had ≥ 1 COVID-19 hospitalization over 12 months, while uptake was lowest among ultra-orthodox Jewish individuals. AZD7442 uptake was also higher among individuals with multiple comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 5), including hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. In specific immunocompromised types, AZD7442 uptake was highest among individuals with lung transplantation (41%), primary immunodeficiency (32%), bone marrow transplantation (29%) and multiple myeloma (25%) or those receiving anti-CD20 therapy (26%) and was lowest in individuals with lymphoma (8%). CONCLUSION: These results show AZD7442 uptake among the eligible population of Israel in 2022 was relatively low, at 14.8%. Uptake was generally higher among immunocompromised individuals who may be perceived to be frail or at highest risk of COVID-19 infection and complications, although at 25-41%, further improvements in uptake would be more impactful. These results also indicate there is opportunity to expand AZD7442 uptake across immunocompromised groups and ensure more equitable uptake among some other sociodemographic groups. Overall, this study will help inform and reassess future implementation strategies for vulnerable populations.

AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations. METHODS: Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1). CONCLUSIONS: Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.

Hyperkalaemia-related reduction of RAASi treatment associates with more subsequent inpatient care.

BACKGROUND: Hyperkalaemia is a barrier to achieving optimal, guideline-directed treatment with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and/or heart failure (HF). This study describes the association between hyperkalaemia-related RAASi treatment reduction and number of hospitalized days in patients with CKD and/or HF in Sweden and Japan. METHODS: Using data from health registers and hospital medical records, patients with CKD and/or HF currently receiving RAASi who experienced an index hyperkalaemia episode were identified and categorized as having maintained or reduced RAASi treatment post-index; propensity-score matching (1:1) was applied to balance the groups in terms of baseline characteristics. Changes in the number of all-cause, CKD-, and HF-related hospitalized days per patient-year during 6 months before versus after index, and the number of days alive and out of hospital (DAOH) during 6 months post-index were described. RESULTS: Overall, 20 824 and 7789 patients were included from Sweden and Japan, respectively, 42% and 38% of whom reduced their RAASi treatment after the index hyperkalaemia episode. During the 6 months post-index, all-cause hospitalization (95% confidence intervals) increased by 18.2 (17.0-19.2) days per person-year in Sweden and 17.9 (17.4-18.5) days per person-year in Japan among patients with reduced RAASi treatment compared with increases of 9.4 (8.6-10.4) and 8.5 (8.0-9.0) days per person-year, respectively, among patients with maintained RAASi treatment. Mean (standard deviation) DAOH were 121.5 (75.0) in Sweden and 141.7 (54.5) in Japan among patients with reduced RAASi treatment compared with 154.0 (51.3) and 157.5 (31.6) days, respectively, among patients with maintained RAASi treatment. CONCLUSION: Patients whose RAASi treatment was reduced after a hyperkalaemia episode had more hospitalized days and fewer DAOH compared with patients whose RAASi treatment was maintained.

Impact of COVID-19 on immunocompromised populations during the Omicron era: insights from the observational population-based INFORM study.

Background: Immunocompromised individuals are not optimally protected by COVID-19 vaccines and potentially require additional preventive interventions to mitigate the risk of severe COVID-19. We aimed to characterise and describe the risk of severe COVID-19 across immunocompromised groups as the pandemic began to transition to an endemic phase. Methods: COVID-19-related hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths (01/01/2022-31/12/2022) were compared among different groups of immunocompromised individuals vs the general population, using a retrospective cohort design and electronic health data from a random 25% sample of the English population aged ≥12 years (Registration number: ISRCTN53375662). Findings: Overall, immunocompromised individuals accounted for 3.9% of the study population, but 22% (4585/20,910) of COVID-19 hospitalisations, 28% (125/440) of COVID-19 ICU admissions, and 24% (1145/4810) of COVID-19 deaths in 2022. Restricting to those vaccinated with ≥3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine (∼84% of immunocompromised and 51% of the general population), all immunocompromised groups remained at increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, with adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) for hospitalisation ranging from 1.3 to 13.1. At highest risk for COVID-19 hospitalisation were individuals with: solid organ transplant (aIRR 13.1, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 11.2-15.3), moderate to severe primary immunodeficiency (aIRR 9.7, 95% CI 6.3-14.9), stem cell transplant (aIRR 11.0, 95% CI 6.8-17.6), and recent treatment for haematological malignancy (aIRR 10.6, 95% CI 9.5-11.9). Results were similar for COVID-19 ICU admissions and deaths. Interpretation: Immunocompromised individuals continue to be impacted disproportionately by COVID-19 and have an urgent need for additional preventive measures beyond current vaccination programmes. These data can help determine the immunocompromised groups for which targeted prevention strategies may have the highest impact. Funding: This study was funded by AstraZeneca UK.

Treatment patterns and outcomes for patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma in England in 2013-2017: A nationwide CAS registry analysis from the I-O Optimise initiative.

OBJECTIVES: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare and aggressive cancer with a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. This study assessed the characteristics, treatment patterns, and outcomes for patients diagnosed with MPM in England. MATERIALS AND METHODS: As part of I-O Optimise, this retrospective cohort study analyzed data recorded in the Cancer Analysis System in England for all adult patients newly diagnosed with MPM between 2013 and 2017, with follow-up to March 2018 or death, whichever occurred first. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier methods. A Cox regression model was used to describe the impact of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at diagnosis on OS. RESULTS: 9458 patients diagnosed with MPM were analyzed. Median age at diagnosis was 75 years; 83.4% were male. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) was 0-1 for 44.5%; 2 for 11.5%; >2 for 9.1%; and missing for 34.9% of patients. TNM stage was missing for 60.4%. A majority of patients had epithelioid histology (36.4%) or not otherwise specified (NOS) MPM (43.3%). After diagnosis, 48.7% of all patients received best supportive care (BSC; no surgery, radiotherapy, SACT); 11.4% received palliative radiotherapy alone; 6.5% underwent surgery; 33.4% received systemic anticancer therapy (SACT) as initial treatment. Platinum plus pemetrexed was the main SACT regimen used in both first and second line. Median OS (8.3 months) varied by histopathology and ranged from 4.3 to 13.3 months for sarcomatoid and epithelioid MPM, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, and ECOG PS, sarcomatoid, biphasic, and NOS MPM remained significantly associated with worse OS than epithelioid MPM (all p < 0.001). Median OS varied from 4.6 to 17.0 months for patients receiving BSC/palliative radiotherapy, and patients receiving surgery, respectively. CONCLUSION: Outcomes for patients with MPM in England remain poor. Future studies will investigate the impact of newer therapies on the treatment patterns and survival of MPM patients.

Patient characteristics associated with COVID-19 positivity and fatality in Nigeria: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the increasing disease burden, there is a dearth of context-specific evidence on the risk factors for COVID-19 positivity and subsequent death in Nigeria. Thus, the study objective was to identify context-specific factors associated with testing positive for COVID-19 and fatality in Nigeria. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: COVID-19 surveillance and laboratory centres in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory reporting data to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals who were investigated for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time PCR testing during the study period 27 February-8 June 2020. METHODS: COVID-19 positivity and subsequent mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors independently associated with both outcome variables, and findings are presented as adjusted ORs (aORs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 36 496 patients were tested for COVID-19, with 10 517 confirmed cases. Of 3215 confirmed cases with available clinical outcomes, 295 died. Factors independently associated with COVID-19 positivity were older age (p value for trend<0.0001), male sex (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.18) and the following presenting symptoms: cough (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.32), fever (aOR 1.45, 95% CI 1.45 to 1.71), loss of smell (aOR 7.78, 95% CI 5.19 to 11.66) and loss of taste (aOR 2.50, 95% CI 1.60 to 3.90). An increased risk of mortality following COVID-19 was observed in those aged ≥51 years, patients in farming occupation (aOR 7.56, 95% CI 1.70 to 33.53) and those presenting with cough (aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.41 to 3.01), breathing difficulties (aOR 5.68, 95% CI 3.77 to 8.58) and vomiting (aOR 2.54, 95% CI 1.33 to 4.84). CONCLUSION: The significant risk factors associated with COVID-19 positivity and subsequent mortality in the Nigerian population are similar to those reported in studies from other countries and should guide clinical decisions for COVID-19 testing and specialist care referrals.

Neuraminidase Inhibitors and Hospital Length of Stay: A Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data to Determine Treatment Effectiveness Among Patients Hospitalized With Nonfatal 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: The effect of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) treatment on length of stay (LoS) in patients hospitalized with influenza is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a one-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis exploring the association between NAI treatment and LoS in patients hospitalized with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) infection. Using mixed-effects negative binomial regression and adjusting for the propensity to receive NAI, antibiotic, and corticosteroid treatment, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Patients with a LoS of <1 day and those who died while hospitalized were excluded. RESULTS: We analyzed data on 18 309 patients from 70 clinical centers. After adjustment, NAI treatment initiated at hospitalization was associated with a 19% reduction in the LoS among patients with clinically suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection (IRR, 0.81; 95% CI, .78-.85), compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment. Similar statistically significant associations were seen in all clinical subgroups. NAI treatment (at any time), compared with no NAI treatment, and NAI treatment initiated <2 days after symptom onset, compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment, showed mixed patterns of association with the LoS. CONCLUSIONS: When patients hospitalized with influenza are treated with NAIs, treatment initiated on admission, regardless of time since symptom onset, is associated with a reduced LoS, compared with later or no initiation of treatment.

A novel framework for evaluating the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes and its potential application to study antiviral treatment collection during an influenza pandemic.

The importance of accounting for social and behavioural processes when studying public health emergencies has been well-recognised. For infectious disease outbreaks in particular, several methods of incorporating individual behaviour have been put forward, but very few are based on established psychological frameworks. In this paper, we develop a decision framework based on the COM-B model of behaviour change to investigate the impact of individual decision-making on public health outcomes. We demonstrate the application of our decision framework in a proof-of-concept case study based on the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic in the UK. The National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) was set up in England during the pandemic as a means to provide antiviral (AV) treatment to clinically ill patients with influenza-like illness, via telephone calls or internet screening, thereby averting the need to see a doctor. The evaluated patients based on a clinical algorithm and authorised AV drugs for collection via community collection points. We applied our behavioural framework to evaluate the influence of human behaviour on AV collection rates, and subsequently to identify interventions that could help improve AV collection rates. Our model was validated against empirically collected pandemic data from 2009 in the UK. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to identify potentially effective interventions by varying model parameters. Using our behavioural framework in a proof-of-concept case study, we found that interventions geared towards increasing people's 'Capability' and 'Opportunity' are likely to result in increased AV collection, potentially resulting in fewer influenza-related hospitalisations and deaths. We note that important behavioural data from public health emergencies are largely scarce. Insights obtained from models such as ours can, not only be very useful in designing healthcare interventions, but also inform future data collection.

Preoperative chronic beta-blocker prescription in elderly patients as a risk factor for postoperative mortality stratified by preoperative blood pressure: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that beta blockers are associated with increased perioperative risk in hypertensive patients. We investigated whether beta blockers were associated with an increased risk in elderly patients with raised preoperative arterial blood pressure. METHODS: We conducted a propensity-score-matched cohort study of primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2004-13), including 84 633 patients aged 65 yr or over. Conditional logistic regression models, including factors that were significantly associated with the outcome, were constructed for 30-day mortality after elective noncardiac surgery. The effects of beta blockers (primary outcome), renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors, calcium-channel blockers, thiazides, loop diuretics, and statins were investigated at systolic and diastolic arterial pressure thresholds. RESULTS: Beta blockers were associated with increased odds of postoperative 30-day mortality in patients with systolic hypertension (defined as systolic BP >140 mm Hg; adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-3.51). After excluding patients for whom prior data suggest benefit from perioperative beta blockade (patients with prior myocardial infarction or heart failure), rather than adjusting for them, the point estimate shifted slightly (aOR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.09-3.89). Compared with no use, statins (aOR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.17-0.75) and thiazides (aOR: 0.28; 95% CI: 0.10-0.78) were associated with lower mortality in patients with systolic hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the safety of perioperative beta blockers may be influenced by preoperative blood pressure thresholds. A randomised controlled trial of beta-blocker withdrawal, in select populations, is required to identify a causal relationship.

Antiviral treatment for outpatient use during an influenza pandemic: a decision tree model of outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have acquired antiviral stockpiles for pandemic influenza mitigation and a significant part of the stockpile may be focussed towards community-based treatment. METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet-based, decision tree model to assess outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment for outpatient use from the perspective of the healthcare payer in the UK. We defined five pandemic scenarios-one based on the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic and four hypothetical scenarios varying in measures of transmissibility and severity. RESULTS: Community-based antiviral treatment was estimated to avert 14-23% of hospitalizations in an overall population of 62.28 million. Higher proportions of averted outcomes were seen in patients with high-risk conditions, when compared to non-high-risk patients. We found that antiviral treatment was cost-saving across pandemic scenarios for high-risk population groups, and cost-saving for the overall population in higher severity influenza pandemics. Antiviral effectiveness had the greatest influence on both the number of hospitalizations averted and on cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that across pandemic scenarios, antiviral treatment can be cost-saving for population groups at high risk of influenza-related complications.

Impact of Outpatient Neuraminidase Inhibitor Treatment in Patients Infected With Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 at High Risk of Hospitalization: An Individual Participant Data Metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: While evidence exists to support the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) in reducing mortality when given to hospitalized patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, the impact of outpatient treatment on hospitalization has not been clearly established. We investigated the impact of outpatient NAI treatment on subsequent hospitalization in patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: We assembled general community and outpatient data from 9 clinical centers in different countries collected between January 2009 and December 2010. We standardized data from each study center to create a pooled dataset and then used mixed-effects logistic regression modeling to determine the effect of NAI treatment on hospitalization. We adjusted for NAI treatment propensity and preadmission antibiotic use, including "study center" as a random intercept to account for differences in baseline hospitalization rate between centers. RESULTS: We included 3376 patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, of whom 3085 (91.4%) had laboratory-confirmed infection. Eight hundred seventy-three patients (25.8%) received outpatient or community-based NAI treatment, 928 of 2395 (38.8%) with available data had dyspnea or respiratory distress, and hospitalizations occurred in 1705 (50.5%). After adjustment for preadmission antibiotics and NAI treatment propensity, preadmission NAI treatment was associated with decreased odds of hospital admission compared to no NAI treatment (adjusted odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.30). CONCLUSIONS: In a population with confirmed or suspected A(H1N1)pdm09 and at high risk of hospitalization, outpatient or community-based NAI treatment significantly reduced the likelihood of requiring hospital admission. These data suggest that community patients with severe influenza should receive NAI treatment.

A UK general practice population cohort study investigating the association between lipid lowering drugs and 30-day mortality following medically attended acute respiratory illness.

Background. Cholesterol lowering drugs HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) and PPARα activators (fibrates) have been shown to reduce host inflammation via non-disease specific immunomodulatory mechanisms. Recent studies suggest that commonly prescribed drugs in general practice, statins and fibrates, may be beneficial in influenza-like illness related mortality. This retrospective cohort study examines the association between two lipid lowering drugs, statins and fibrates, and all-cause 30-day mortality following a medically attended acute respiratory illness (MAARI). Methods. Primary care patient data were retrospectively extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database. The sample comprised 201,179 adults aged 30 years or older experiencing a MAARI episode. Patient exposure to statins or fibrates was coded as separate dichotomous variables and deemed current if the most recent GP prescription was issued in the 30 days prior to MAARI diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression were used for analyses. Adjustment was carried out for chronic lung disease, heart failure, metformin and glitazones, comorbidity burden, socio-demographic and lifestyle variables such as smoking status and body mass index (BMI). Statistical interaction tests were carried out to check for effect modification by gender, body mass index, smoking status and comorbidity. Results. A total of 1,096 (5%) patients died within the 30-day follow up period. Of this group, 213 (19.4%) were statin users and 4 (0.4%) were fibrate users. After adjustment, a significant 35% reduction in odds [adj OR; 0.65 (95% CI [0.52-0.80])] and a 33% reduction in the hazard [adj HR: 0.67 (95% CI [0.55-0.83])] of all-cause 30-day mortality following MAARI was observed in statin users. A significant effect modification by comorbidity burden was observed for the association between statin use and MAARI-related mortality. Fibrate use was associated with a non-significant reduction in 30-day MAARI-related mortality. Conclusion. This study suggests that statin use may be associated with a reduction in 30-day mortality following acute respiratory illness that is severe enough to merit medical consultation. Findings from this study support and strengthen similar observational research while providing a strong rationale for a randomised controlled trial investigating the potential role of statins in acute respiratory infections.

Effects of five preoperative cardiovascular drugs on mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery: A retrospective analysis of an observational study of 16, 192 patients.

BACKGROUND: Statins reduce risk from coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, but the influence of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, alpha-2 adrenergic agonists, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers is less clear. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the association of each of these drugs with perioperative risk, accounting for different confounders, and evaluated the class, dose-response and long-term protective effect of statins. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of observational data. SETTING: United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Sixteen thousand one hundred and ninety-two patients who underwent CABG surgery during the period 01 January 2004 to 31 December 2013 and contributed data to Primary Care Clinical Practice Research Datalink. EXPOSURE VARIABLES: Cardiovascular drugs. OUTCOME MEASURE: Perioperative mortality within 30 days of surgery. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Five multivariable logistic regression models and a further Cox regression model were used to account for preexisting cardiovascular and other comorbidities along with lifestyle factors such as BMI, smoking and alcohol use. RESULTS: Exposure to statins was most prevalent (85.1% of patients), followed by beta-blockers (72.8%), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (60.5%), calcium channel blockers (42.8%) and alpha-2 adrenergic agonists (1.2%). The mortality rate was 0.8% in patients not prescribed statins and 0.4% in those on statins. Statins were associated with a statistically significant reduced perioperative mortality in all five logistic regression models with adjusted odds ratios (OR) (95% confidence interval, 95% CI) ranging from 0.26 (0.13 to 0.54) to 0.35 (0.18 to 0.67). Cox regression for perioperative mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.40 (0.20 to 0.80)] and 6-month mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.63 (0.42 to 0.92)] produced similar results. Of the statin doses tested, only simvastatin 40 mg exerted protective effects. The other cardiovascular drugs lacked consistent effects across models. CONCLUSION: Statins appear consistently protective against perioperative mortality from CABG surgery in multiple models, an effect not shared by the other cardiovascular drugs. Further data are needed on whether statins exert class and dose-response effects.

Impact of neuraminidase inhibitors on influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-related pneumonia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) on influenza-related pneumonia (IRP) is not established. Our objective was to investigate the association between NAI treatment and IRP incidence and outcomes in patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: A worldwide meta-analysis of individual participant data from 20 634 hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 20 021) or clinically diagnosed (n = 613) 'pandemic influenza'. The primary outcome was radiologically confirmed IRP. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using generalised linear mixed modelling, adjusting for NAI treatment propensity, antibiotics and corticosteroids. RESULTS: Of 20 634 included participants, 5978 (29·0%) had IRP; conversely, 3349 (16·2%) had confirmed the absence of radiographic pneumonia (the comparator). Early NAI treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) versus no NAI was not significantly associated with IRP [adj. OR 0·83 (95% CI 0·64-1·06; P = 0·136)]. Among the 5978 patients with IRP, early NAI treatment versus none did not impact on mortality [adj. OR = 0·72 (0·44-1·17; P = 0·180)] or likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 1·17 (0·71-1·92; P = 0·537)], but early treatment versus later significantly reduced mortality [adj. OR = 0·70 (0·55-0·88; P = 0·003)] and likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 0·68 (0·54-0·85; P = 0·001)]. CONCLUSIONS: Early NAI treatment of patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection versus no treatment did not reduce the likelihood of IRP. However, in patients who developed IRP, early NAI treatment versus later reduced the likelihood of mortality and needing ventilatory support.

Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage.

Objectives: The stockpiling of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antivirals as a defence against pandemic influenza is a significant public health policy decision that must be made despite a lack of conclusive evidence from randomised controlled trials regarding the effectiveness of NAIs on important clinical end points such as mortality. The objective of this study was to determine whether NAIs should be stockpiled for treatment of pandemic influenza on the basis of current evidence. Methods: A decision model for stockpiling was designed. Data on previous pandemic influenza epidemiology was combined with data on the effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality obtained from a recent individual participant meta-analysis using observational data. Evidence synthesis techniques and a bias modelling method for observational data were used to incorporate the evidence into the model. The stockpiling decision was modelled for adults (≥16 years old) and the United Kingdom was used as an example. The main outcome was the expected net benefits of stockpiling in monetary terms. Health benefits were estimated from deaths averted through stockpiling. Results: After adjusting for biases in the estimated effectiveness of NAIs, the expected net benefit of stockpiling in the baseline analysis was £444 million, assuming a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY ($31,000/QALY). The decision would therefore be to stockpile NAIs. There was a greater probability that the stockpile would not be utilised than utilised. However, the rare but catastrophic losses from a severe pandemic justified the decision to stockpile. Conclusions: Taking into account the available epidemiological data and evidence of effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality, including potential biases, a decision maker should stockpile anti-influenza medication in keeping with the postulated decision rule.

Development of processes allowing near real-time refinement and validation of triage tools during the early stage of an outbreak in readiness for surge: the FLU-CATs Study.

BACKGROUND: During pandemics of novel influenza and outbreaks of emerging infections, surge in health-care demand can exceed capacity to provide normal standards of care. In such exceptional circumstances, triage tools may aid decisions in identifying people who are most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. Rapid research during the early phase of an outbreak should allow refinement and validation of triage tools so that in the event of surge a valid tool is available. The overarching study aim is to conduct a prospective near real-time analysis of structured clinical assessments of influenza-like illness (ILI) using primary care electronic health records (EHRs) during a pandemic. This abstract summarises the preparatory work, infrastructure development, user testing and proof-of-concept study. OBJECTIVES: (1) In preparation for conducting rapid research in the early phase of a future outbreak, to develop processes that allow near real-time analysis of general practitioner (GP) assessments of people presenting with ILI, management decisions and patient outcomes. (2) As proof of concept: conduct a pilot study evaluating the performance of the triage tools 'Community Assessment Tools' and 'Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score' to predict hospital admission and death in patients presenting with ILI to GPs during inter-pandemic winter seasons. DESIGN: Prospective near real-time analysis of structured clinical assessments and anonymised linkage to data from EHRs. User experience was evaluated by semistructured interviews with participating GPs. SETTING: Thirty GPs in England, Wales and Scotland, participating in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PARTICIPANTS: All people presenting with ILI. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Study outcome is proof of concept through demonstration of data capture and near real-time analysis. Primary patient outcomes were hospital admission within 24 hours and death (all causes) within 30 days of GP assessment. Secondary patient outcomes included GP decision to prescribe antibiotics and/or influenza-specific antiviral drugs and/or refer to hospital - if admitted, the need for higher levels of care and length of hospital stay. DATA SOURCES: Linked anonymised data from a web-based structured clinical assessment and primary care EHRs. RESULTS: In the 24 months to April 2015, data from 704 adult and 159 child consultations by 30 GPs were captured. GPs referred 11 (1.6%) adults and six (3.8%) children to hospital. There were 13 (1.8%) deaths of adults and two (1.3%) of children. There were too few outcome events to draw any conclusions regarding the performance of the triage tools. GP interviews showed that although there were some difficulties with installation, the web-based data collection tool was quick and easy to use. Some GPs felt that a minimal monetary incentive would promote participation. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed processes that allow capture and near real-time automated analysis of GP's clinical assessments and management decisions of people presenting with ILI. FUTURE WORK: We will develop processes to include other EHR systems, attempt linkage to data on influenza surveillance and maintain processes in readiness for a future outbreak. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as ISRCTN87130712 and UK Clinical Research Network 12827. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. MGS is supported by the UK NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections.

Physician and patient concordance of report of tobacco cessation intervention in primary care in India.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco cessation interventions by physicians hold promise in improving quit rates. The 5As intervention ('Ask', 'Advise', 'Assess', 'Assist' and 'Arrange') is an evidence-based approach for tobacco cessation. However, little is known about adherence with the tobacco cessation interventions in primary care in India. In the present study we assessed physicians' adherence with the 5As intervention and explored physician and patient concordance on the report of 5As intervention for tobacco cessation. METHODS: We used data from two cross-sectional surveys conducted in 12 districts of Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat in India. The surveys were administered simultaneously to both patients attending, and physicians working in health facilities providing primary care. Health facilities were selected by systematic random sampling and patients were recruited by simple random sampling. Common health facilities where both surveys were performed were identified, and individual patients were matched to their physicians through a unique matching code to obtain the two study samples. RESULTS: Slight agreement was observed between the physician and patient responses on 'Ask' and 'Arrange' component of the 5As intervention. The 'Advise', 'Assess' and 'Assist' components showed low agreement. Slightly higher levels of agreement were seen on all components of the 5As, except 'Advise', for those patients who had made an attempt to quit. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests an urgent need for revising current strategies in order to strengthen the 'Advise', 'Assess', and 'Assist' interventions in tobacco cessation in primary care settings. Patient surveys should be used routinely in assessing fidelity and provider adherence for large scale behavioral health programs.

Missed opportunities for brief intervention in tobacco control in primary care: patients' perspectives from primary health care settings in India.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization has called for tobacco cessation to be integrated into primary care. Primary Health Centres (PHC) offer opportunities for tobacco-use screening and brief cessation advice but data on such activities in developing countries such as India are limited. The aim of this study was to investigate screening and brief intervention practices of health service providers in primary care. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2012 among 1,549 patients aged over 18 years visiting PHCs in 12 districts of two Indian states- Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. Responses were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Information was obtained on participants' tobacco use status, reason(s) for seeking medical care, whether participants had been screened for and advised to quit tobacco use. The primary outcome was whether patients were screened during their visit to the PHC. Data analysis was performed using multi-level logistic regression. RESULTS: Less than one-third (447) of patients were screened for tobacco use during their visit to the PHC. People presenting with respiratory complaints were 84% more likely (OR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.62) to be screened for tobacco use when compared to those with general ailments. Number of quit attempts in the past 12 months was strongly associated with the outcome of being screened for tobacco use, indicating that people who had more than 5 quit attempts were two times more likely to be screened for tobacco use than those who had never attempted to quit tobacco (OR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.03 to 3.8). Among the 447 patients who were screened for tobacco use, only 136 reported to have been counselled and merely 67 patients received suggestions on ways to quit tobacco. CONCLUSION: Our results show that opportunities for screening and providing tobacco use cessation advice were largely missed by the health service providers. Our study suggests that there is an urgent need to incorporate tobacco cessation interventions as part of standard practice so that all patients are given an opportunity to be asked about their tobacco use and to be given advice and counselling to quit tobacco.