Poor accuracy and sustainability of the first-step FIB4 EASL pathway for stratifying steatotic liver disease risk in the general population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The European Association for the Study of the Liver introduced a clinical pathway (EASL CP) for screening significant/advanced fibrosis in people at risk of steatotic liver disease (SLD). We assessed the performance of the first-step FIB4 EASL CP in the general population across different SLD risk groups (MASLD, Met-ALD and ALD) and various age classes. METHODS: We analysed a total of 3372 individuals at risk of SLD from the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES17-18), projected to 152.3 million U.S. adults, 300,329 from the UK Biobank (UKBB) and 57,644 from the Biobank Japan (BBJ). We assessed liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥8 kPa and liver-related events occurring within 3 and 10 years (3/10 year-LREs) as outcomes. We defined MASLD, MetALD, and ALD according to recent international recommendations. RESULTS: FIB4 sensitivity for LSM ≥ 8 kPa was low (27.7%), but it ranged approximately 80%-90% for 3-year LREs. Using FIB4, 22%-57% of subjects across the three cohorts were identified as candidates for vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), which was mostly avoidable (positive predictive value of FIB4 ≥ 1.3 for LSM ≥ 8 kPa ranging 9.5%-13% across different SLD categories). Sensitivity for LSM ≥ 8 kPa and LREs increased with increasing alcohol intake (ALD>MetALD>MASLD) and age classes. For individuals aged ≥65 years, using the recommended age-adjusted FIB4 cut-off (≥2) substantially reduced sensitivity for LSM ≥ 8 kPa and LREs. CONCLUSIONS: The first-step FIB4 EASL CP is poorly accurate and feasible for individuals at risk of SLD in the general population. It is crucial to enhance the screening strategy with a first-step approach able to reduce unnecessary VCTEs and optimise their yield.

Approaching the Sarcopenic Patient with Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis-related Cirrhosis.

Sarcopenia is a well-known complication of chronic liver disease (CLD), and it is almost always observed in patients with cirrhosis, at least in those with decompensated disease. Since nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), recently renamed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), is becoming the leading cause of end-stage liver disease, a new scenario characterized by the frequent coexistence of NAFLD, obesity, and sarcopenia is emerging. Although it is not yet resolved whether the bidirectional relationship between sarcopenia and NAFLD subtends causal determinants, it is clear that the interaction of these two conditions is associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes. Notably, during the course of CLD, deregulation of the liver-muscle-adipose tissue axis has been described. Unfortunately, owing to the lack of properly designed studies, specific therapeutic guidelines for patients with sarcopenia in the context of NAFLD-related CLD have not yet been defined. Strategies aimed to induce the loss of fat mass together with the maintenance of lean body mass seem most appropriate. This can be achieved by properly designed diets integrated with specific nutritional supplementations and accompanied by adequate physical exercise. Future studies aiming to add to the knowledge of the correct assessment and approach to sarcopenia in the context of NAFLD-related CLD are eagerly awaited.

Impact of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential on hepatocellular carcinoma in individuals with steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a global epidemic and is the most rapidly rising cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) contributes to neoplastic and cardiometabolic disorders and is considered a harbinger of tissue inflammation. CHIP was recently associated with increased risk of liver disease. The aim of this study was to examine whether CHIP is associated with HCC development in patients with SLD. METHODS: We considered individuals with MASLD-HCC (n=208) and controls with (n=414) and without (n=259) advanced fibrosis who underwent whole exome sequencing. CHIP was diagnosed when ≥2 variant callers identified a known myeloid mutation with VAF ≥2%. RESULTS: CHIP was observed in 116 participants (13.1%), most frequently in DNMT3A, TET2, TP53 and ASXL1, and correlated with age (p<0.0001) and advanced liver fibrosis (p=0.001). Higher AST levels predicted non-DNMT3A-CHIP, in particular with variant allele frequency (VAF)≥10% (OR 1.14, 1.03-1.28 and OR 1.30, 1.12-1.49, respectively, p<0.05). After adjustment for sex, diabetes and a polygenic risk score of inherited MASLD predisposition CHIP was associated with cirrhosis (2.00, 1.30-3.15, p=0.02), and with HCC even after further adjustment for cirrhosis (OR 1.81, 1.11-2.00, 1.30-3.15, p=0.002). Despite the strong collinearity among aging and development of CHIP and HCC, non-DNTM3A-CHIP and TET2 lesions remained associated with HCC after full correction for clinical/genetics covariates and age (OR 2.45, 1.35-4.53; OR 4.8, 1.60-17.0, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We observed an independent association between CHIP, particularly related to non-DNTM3A and TET2 genetic lesions, and MASLD-HCC.

Non-invasive assessment of hepatic steatosis by ultrasound-derived fat fraction in individuals at high-risk for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

AIMS: Given the increasing number of individuals developing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and the low rate of those with progressive liver disease, there is a pressing need to conceive affordable biomarkers to assess MASLD in general population settings. Herein, we aimed to investigate the performance of the ultrasound-derived fat fraction (UDFF) for hepatic steatosis in high-risk individuals. METHODS: A total of 302 Europeans with obesity, type 2 diabetes, or a clinical history of hepatic steatosis were included in the analyses. Clinical, laboratory, and imaging data were collected using standardized procedures during a single screening visit in Rome, Italy. Hepatic steatosis was defined by controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) or ultrasound-based Hamaguchi's score. UDFF performance for hepatic steatosis was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Overall, median (IQR) UDFF was 12% (7-20). UDFF was positively correlated with CAP (ρ = 0.73, p < 0.0001) and Hamaguchi's score (ρ = 0.79, p < 0.0001). Independent predictors of UDFF were circulating triglycerides, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and ultrasound-measured visceral adipose tissue (VAT). UDFF AUC was 0.89 (0.85-0.93) and 0.92 (0.88-0.95) for CAP- and ultrasound-diagnosed hepatic steatosis, respectively. UDFF AUC for hepatic steatosis was higher than those of fatty liver index (FLI), hepatic steatosis index (HSI), CAP-score (CAPS), and ALT (p < 0.0001). Lower age, ALT, and VAT were associated with discordance between UDFF and ultrasound. CONCLUSIONS: UDFF may be a simple and accurate imaging biomarker to assess hepatic steatosis and monitor changes in hepatic fat content over time or in response to therapeutic interventions beyond clinical trials.

Partitioned polygenic risk scores identify distinct types of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) encompasses an excess of triglycerides in the liver, which can lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer. While there is solid epidemiological evidence of MASLD coexisting with cardiometabolic disease, several leading genetic risk factors for MASLD do not increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, suggesting no causal relationship between MASLD and cardiometabolic derangement. In this work, we leveraged measurements of visceral adiposity and identified 27 novel genetic loci associated with MASLD. Among these loci, we replicated 6 in several independent cohorts. Next, we generated two partitioned polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on the mechanism of genetic association with MASLD encompassing intra-hepatic lipoprotein retention. The two PRS suggest the presence of at least two distinct types of MASLD, one confined to the liver resulting in a more aggressive liver disease and one that is systemic and results in a higher risk of cardiometabolic disease.

IL32 downregulation lowers triglycerides and type I collagen in di-lineage human primary liver organoids.

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) prevails as the most common chronic liver disease yet lack approved treatments due to incomplete understanding of pathogenesis. Recently, elevated hepatic and circulating interleukin 32 (IL-32) levels were found in individuals with severe SLD. However, the mechanistic link between IL-32 and intracellular triglyceride metabolism remains to be elucidated. We demonstrate in vitro that incubation with IL-32ß protein leads to an increase in intracellular triglyceride synthesis, while downregulation of IL32 by small interfering RNA leads to lower triglyceride synthesis and secretion in organoids from human primary hepatocytes. This reduction requires the upregulation of Phospholipase A2 group IIA (PLA2G2A). Furthermore, downregulation of IL32 results in lower intracellular type I collagen levels in di-lineage human primary hepatic organoids. Finally, we identify a genetic variant of IL32 (rs76580947) associated with lower circulating IL-32 and protection against SLD measured by non-invasive tests. These data suggest that IL32 downregulation may be beneficial against SLD.

Predictors of controlled attenuation parameter in metabolic dysfunction.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatic fat content can be non-invasively estimated by controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) during transient elastography. The aim of this study was to examine the determinants and predictors of CAP values in individuals with metabolic dysfunction. METHODS: We enrolled 1230 consecutive apparently healthy individuals (Liver-Bible-2022 cohort) with ≥3 metabolic dysfunction features. CAP was measured by Fibroscan. CAP determinants and predictors were identified using backward stepwise analysis and introduced in generalized linear models. RESULTS: Participants were predominantly males (82.9%), mean age was 53.8 ± 6.4 years, 600 (48.8%) had steatosis (CAP ≥ 275 dB/m), and 27 had liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 8 kPa. CAP values correlated with LSM (p < 10-22). In multivariable analysis, fasting insulin and abdominal circumference (AC) were the main determinants of CAP (p < 10-6), together with body mass index (BMI; p < 10-4), age, diabetes, triglycerides, ferritin, and lower HDL and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH; p < 0.05 for all). In a subset of 592 participants with thyroid hormone measurement, we found an association between higher free triiodothyronine levels, correlating with lower TSH, and CAP values, independent of TSH and of levothyroxine treatment (p = 0.0025). A clinical CAP score based on age, BMI, AC, HbA1c, ALT, and HDL predicted CAP ≥ 275 dB/m with moderate accuracy (AUROC = 0.73), which was better than that of the Fatty Liver Index and of ALT (AUROC = 0.70/0.61, respectively) and validated it in multiple cohorts. CONCLUSION: Abdominal adiposity and insulin resistance severity were the main determinants of CAP in individuals with metabolic dysfunction and may improve steatotic liver disease risk stratification. CAP values were modulated by the hypophysis-thyroid axis.

Fibroblast Growth Factor 21 in Chronic Hepatitis C: A Potential Non-Invasive Biomarker of Liver Status upon Viral Eradication.

Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF-21), previously recognized as a marker of liver damage and a potential drug target in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), has unclear implications in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between FGF-21 levels and liver health in patients with HCV undergoing direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. Forty-five patients were assessed for liver stiffness, blood chemistry, and other relevant metrics before and after achieving sustained viral response (SVR), defined as the absence of detectable HCV-RNA after 24 weeks of treatment. Post-treatment, all patients showed a decrease in liver stiffness and improved liver enzyme levels (AST and ALT), alongside an increase in FGF-21 levels. Interestingly, the increase in FGF-21 correlated negatively with liver stiffness but showed no correlation with hepatic steatosis. The observed elevation in FGF-21 levels at SVR following DAA therapy for chronic HCV infection can be attributed to the restoration of hepatic function, including its synthetic capabilities. Specifically, the mitigation of liver fibrosis post-HCV eradication is expected to lead to improvements in liver function, such as enhanced albumin and FGF-21 production. This improvement in synthetic function likely drives the increase in FGF-21 levels, rather than changes in liver fat content. We suggest a potential role of FGF-21 as a marker of fibrosis and hepatic cytotoxicity and as a drug target beyond NAFLD, to be confirmed by additional studies.

Prognostication in NAFLD: physiological bases, clinical indicators, and newer biomarkers

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming an epidemic in Western countries. Notably, while the majority of NAFLD patients will not evolve until advanced liver disease, a minority of them will progress towards liver-related events. Therefore, risk stratification and prognostication are emerging as fundamental in order to optimize human and economic resources for the care of these patients. Liver fibrosis has been clearly recognized as the main predictor of poor hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes. However, a prediction based only on the stage of fibrosis is near-sighted and static, as it does not capture the propensity of disease to further progress, the speed of progression and their changes over time. These determinants, which result from the interaction between genetic predisposition and acquired risk factors (obesity, diabetes, etc.), express themselves in disease activity, and can be synthesized by biomarkers of hepatic inflammation and fibrogenesis. In this review, we present the currently available clinical tools for risk stratification and prognostication in NAFLD specifically with respect to the risk of progression towards hard hepatic outcomes, i.e., liver-related events and death. We also discuss about the genetic and acquired drivers of disease progression, together with the physiopathological bases of their come into action. Finally, we introduce the most promising biomarkers in the direction of repeatedly assessing disease activity over time, mainly in response to future therapeutic interventions. (AU)

Programmed cell death 1 genetic variant and liver damage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Programmed cell death 1/programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-1/PDL-1) axis has been reported to modulate liver inflammation and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Here, we examined whether the PDCD1 variation is associated with NAFLD severity in individuals with liver biopsy. METHODS: We examined the impact of PDCD1 gene variants on HCC, as robust severe liver disease phenotype in UK Biobank participants. The strongest genetic association with the rs13023138 G>C variation was subsequently tested for association with liver damage in 2889 individuals who underwent liver biopsy for suspected nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Hepatic transcriptome was examined by RNA-Seq in a subset of NAFLD individuals (n = 121). Transcriptomic and deconvolution analyses were performed to identify biological pathways modulated by the risk allele. RESULTS: The rs13023138 C>G showed the most robust association with HCC in UK Biobank (p = 5.28E-4, OR = 1.32, 95% CI [1.1, 1.5]). In the liver biopsy cohort, rs13023138 G allele was independently associated with severe steatosis (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34; p = .01), NASH (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.37; p < .001) and advanced fibrosis (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.50; p = .007). At deconvolution analysis, rs13023138 G>C allele was linked to higher hepatic representation of M1 macrophages, paralleled by upregulation of pathways related to inflammation and higher expression of CXCR6. CONCLUSIONS: The PDCD1 rs13023138 G allele was associated with HCC development in the general population and with liver disease severity in patients at high risk of NASH.

Prognostication in NAFLD: physiological bases, clinical indicators, and newer biomarkers.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming an epidemic in Western countries. Notably, while the majority of NAFLD patients will not evolve until advanced liver disease, a minority of them will progress towards liver-related events. Therefore, risk stratification and prognostication are emerging as fundamental in order to optimize human and economic resources for the care of these patients.Liver fibrosis has been clearly recognized as the main predictor of poor hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes. However, a prediction based only on the stage of fibrosis is near-sighted and static, as it does not capture the propensity of disease to further progress, the speed of progression and their changes over time. These determinants, which result from the interaction between genetic predisposition and acquired risk factors (obesity, diabetes, etc.), express themselves in disease activity, and can be synthesized by biomarkers of hepatic inflammation and fibrogenesis.In this review, we present the currently available clinical tools for risk stratification and prognostication in NAFLD specifically with respect to the risk of progression towards hard hepatic outcomes, i.e., liver-related events and death. We also discuss about the genetic and acquired drivers of disease progression, together with the physiopathological bases of their come into action. Finally, we introduce the most promising biomarkers in the direction of repeatedly assessing disease activity over time, mainly in response to future therapeutic interventions.

Development and Validation of a Score for Fibrotic Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive assessment of histological features of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been an intensive research area over the last decade. Herein, we aimed to develop a simple noninvasive score using routine laboratory tests to identify, among individuals at high risk for NAFLD, those with fibrotic nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) defined as NASH, NAFLD activity score ≥4, and fibrosis stage ≥2. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 264 morbidly obese individuals undergoing intraoperative liver biopsy in Rome, Italy. The best predictive model was developed and internally validated using a bootstrapping stepwise logistic regression analysis (2000 bootstrap samples). Performance was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was assessed in 3 independent European cohorts (Finland, n = 370; Italy, n = 947; England, n = 5368) of individuals at high risk for NAFLD. RESULTS: The final predictive model, designated as Fibrotic NASH Index (FNI), combined aspartate aminotransferase, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and hemoglobin A1c. The performance of FNI for fibrotic NASH was satisfactory in both derivation and external validation cohorts (AUROC = 0.78 and AUROC = 0.80-0.95, respectively). In the derivation cohort, rule-out and rule-in cutoffs were 0.10 for sensitivity ≥0.89 (negative predictive value, 0.93) and 0.33 for specificity ≥0.90 (positive predictive value, 0.57), respectively. In the external validation cohorts, sensitivity ranged from 0.87 to 1 (negative predictive value, 0.99-1) and specificity from 0.73 to 0.94 (positive predictive value, 0.12-0.49) for rule-out and rule-in cutoff, respectively. CONCLUSION: FNI is an accurate, simple, and affordable noninvasive score which can be used to screen for fibrotic NASH in individuals with dysmetabolism in primary health care.

Incidence and Outcome of Pneumomediastinum in Non-ICU Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

OBJECTIVES: Pneumomediastinum (PNM) is a rare complication of mechanical ventilation, but its reported occurrence in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome secondary to COVID-19 is significant. The objective is to determine the incidence, risk factors, and outcome of PNM in non-ICU hospitalized patients with severe-to-critical COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Population-based, single-setting, tertiary-care level COVID treatment center. PATIENTS: Individuals hospitalized with a diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia and severe to critical illness were included. Those hospitalized without respiratory failure, observed for less than 24 hours, or admitted from an ICU were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: All patients underwent a complete clinical assessment and chest CT scan, and were followed up from hospitalization to discharge or death. The outcome was the number of cases of PNM, defined as the presence of free air in the mediastinal tissues diagnosed by chest CT scan, in non-ICU hospitalized patients and the subsequent risk of intubation and mortality. PNM occurred in 48 out of 331 participants. The incidence was 14.5% (95% CI, 10.9-18.8%). A CT-Scan Severity score greater than 15 was positively associated with PNM (odds ratio [OR], 4.09; p = 0.002) and was observed in 35.2% of the participants (95% CI, 26.2-44.9%). Noninvasive ventilation was also positively associated with PNM (OR, 4.46; p = 0.005), but there was no positive association with airway pressures. Fifty patients (15%) were intubated, and 88 (27%) died. Both the risk for intubation and mortality were higher in patients with PNM, with a hazard ratio of 3.72 ( p < 0.001) and 3.27 ( p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Non-ICU hospitalized patients with COVID-19 have a high incidence of PNM, increasing the risk for intubation and mortality three- to four-fold, particularly in those with extensive lung damage. These findings help define the risk and outcome of PNM in severe-to-critical COVID-19 pneumonia in a non-ICU setting.

Thrombocytopenia in chronic liver disease: Physiopathology and new therapeutic strategies before invasive procedures.

Chronic liver disease is characterized by several hematological derangements resulting in a complex and barely rebalanced haemostatic environment. Thrombocytopenia is the most common abnormality observed in these patients and recent advances have led to researchers focus the attention on the multifactorial origin of thrombocytopenia and on the key role of thrombopoietin (TPO) in its physiopathology. Severe thrombocytopenia (platelet count < 50000/µL) complicates the management of patients with chronic liver disease by increasing the potential risk of bleeding for invasive procedures, which may be therefore delayed or canceled even if lifesaving. In the very last years, the development of new drugs which exceed the limits of the current standard of care (platelet transfusions, either immediately before or during the procedure) paves the way to a new scenario in the management of this population of patients. Novel agents, such as the TPO-receptor agonists avatrombopag and lusutrombopag, have been developed in order to increase platelet production as an alternative to platelet transfusions. These agents have demonstrated a good profile in terms of efficacy and safety and will hopefully allow reducing limitations and risks associated with platelet transfusion, without any delay in scheduled interventions. Altogether, it is expected that patients with chronic liver disease will be able to face invasive procedures with one more string in their bow.

Rare ATG7 genetic variants predispose patients to severe fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the leading cause of liver disorders and has a strong heritable component. The aim of this study was to identify new loci that contribute to severe NAFLD by examining rare variants. METHODS: We performed whole-exome sequencing in individuals with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 301) and examined the enrichment of likely pathogenic rare variants vs. the general population. This was followed by validation at the gene level. RESULTS: In patients with severe NAFLD, we observed an enrichment of the p.P426L variant (rs143545741 C>T; odds ratio [OR] 5.26, 95% CI 2.1-12.6; p = 0.003) of autophagy-related 7 (ATG7), which we characterized as a loss-of-function, vs. the general population, and an enrichment in rare variants affecting the catalytic domain (OR 13.9; 95% CI 1.9-612; p = 0.002). In the UK Biobank cohort, loss-of-function ATG7 variants increased the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (OR 3.30; 95% CI 1.1-7.5 and OR 12.30, 95% CI 2.6-36, respectively; p <0.001 for both). The low-frequency loss-of-function p.V471A variant (rs36117895 T>C) was also associated with severe NAFLD in the clinical cohort (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.5; p = 0.003), predisposed to hepatocellular ballooning (p = 0.007) evolving to fibrosis in the Liver biopsy cohort (n = 2,268), and was associated with liver injury in the UK Biobank (aspartate aminotransferase levels, p <0.001), with a larger effect in severely obese individuals in whom it was linked to hepatocellular carcinoma (p = 0.009). ATG7 protein localized to periportal hepatocytes, particularly in the presence of ballooning. In the Liver Transcriptomic cohort (n = 125), ATG7 expression correlated with suppression of the TNFα pathway, which was conversely upregulated in p.V471A carriers. CONCLUSIONS: We identified rare and low-frequency ATG7 loss-of-function variants that promote NAFLD progression by impairing autophagy and facilitating ballooning and inflammation. LAY SUMMARY: We found that rare mutations in a gene called autophagy-related 7 (ATG7) increase the risk of developing severe liver disease in individuals with dysmetabolism. These mutations cause an alteration in protein function and impairment of self-renewal of cellular content, leading to liver damage and inflammation.

The Origins of NAFLD: The Potential Implication of Intrauterine Life and Early Postnatal Period.

Fetal life and the first few months after birth represent a plastic age, defined as a "window of opportunity", as the organism is particularly susceptible to environmental pressures and has to adapt to environmental conditions. Several perturbations in pregnancy, such as excessive weight gain, obesity, gestational diabetes mellitus and an inadequate or high-fat diet, have been associated with long-term metabolic consequences in offspring, even without affecting birth weight. Moreover, great interest has also been focused on the relationship between the gut microbiome of early infants and health status in later life. Consistently, in various epidemiological studies, a condition of dysbiosis has been associated with an increased inflammatory response and metabolic alterations in the host, with important consequences on the intestinal and systemic health of the unborn child. This review aims to summarize the current knowledge on the origins of NAFLD, with particular attention to the potential implications of intrauterine life and the early postnatal period. Due to the well-known association between gut microbiota and the risk of NAFLD, a specific focus will be devoted to factors affecting early microbiota formation/composition.

A Genetic and Metabolic Staging System for Predicting the Outcome of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging cause of liver-related events (LREs). Here, we have assessed the ability of a composite score based on clinical features, metabolic comorbidities, and genetic variants to predict LREs. A total of 546 consecutive patients with NAFLD were recruited and stratified according to the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. LREs were defined as occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation. Cox regression multivariate analysis was used to identify baseline variables associated with LREs. The UK Biobank was used as the validation cohort, and severe liver disease (incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or liver transplantation) was used as the outcome. LREs were experienced by 58 patients, only one of whom was in the cohort of patients with a FIB-4 score < 1.3. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of 229 patients with a FIB-4 score ≥ 1.3 highlighted clinical variables independently associated with the development of LREs, including older age, low platelet count, low albumin, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, certain genetic factors, and interactions between genetic factors and sex or diabetes. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.87 at 1, 3, and 5 years. Our novel Genetic and Metabolic Staging (GEMS) scoring system was derived from the Cox model linear predictor, ranked from 0 to 10, and categorized into five classes (0-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, and 8-10). The risk of LREs increased from 4% in patients in the best class (GEMS score 0-5) to 91% in the worst (GEMS score 8-10). GEMS score was associated with incident severe liver disease in the study population (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-1.65; P < 0.001) as well as in the UK Biobank cohort where AUCs for prediction of severe liver disease at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.70, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. Conclusion: The novel GEMS scoring system has an adequate ability to predict the outcome of patients with NAFLD.