Bile Acid Profiles in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Their Ability to Predict Hepatic Decompensation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Altered bile acid (BA) homeostasis is an intrinsic facet of cholestatic liver diseases, but clinical usefulness of plasma BA assessment in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) remains understudied. We performed BA profiling in a large retrospective cohort of patients with PSC and matched healthy controls, hypothesizing that plasma BA profiles vary among patients and have clinical utility. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Plasma BA profiling was performed in the Clinical Biochemical Genetics Laboratory at Mayo Clinic using a mass spectrometry based assay. Cox proportional hazard (univariate) and gradient boosting machines (multivariable) models were used to evaluate whether BA variables predict 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (HD; defined as ascites, variceal hemorrhage, or encephalopathy). There were 400 patients with PSC and 302 controls in the derivation cohort (Mayo Clinic) and 108 patients with PSC in the validation cohort (Norwegian PSC Research Center). Patients with PSC had increased BA levels, conjugated fraction, and primary-to-secondary BA ratios relative to controls. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) increased total plasma BA level while lowering cholic acid and chenodeoxycholic acid concentrations. Patients without inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) had primary-to-secondary BA ratios between those of controls and patients with ulcerative colitis. HD risk was associated with increased concentration and conjugated fraction of many BA, whereas higher G:T conjugation ratios were protective. The machine-learning model, PSC-BA profile score (concordance statistic [C-statistic], 0.95), predicted HD better than individual measures, including alkaline phosphatase, and performed well in validation (C-statistic, 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PSC demonstrated alterations of plasma BA consistent with known mechanisms of cholestasis, UDCA treatment, and IBD. Notably, BA profiles predicted future HD, establishing the clinical potential of BA profiling, which may be suited for use in clinical trials.

Factors Associated With Outcomes of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

We sought to identify factors that are predictive of liver transplantation or death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and to develop and validate a contemporaneous risk score for use in a real-world clinical setting. Analyzing data from 1,001 patients recruited to the UK-PSC research cohort, we evaluated clinical variables for their association with 2-year and 10-year outcome through Cox-proportional hazards and C-statistic analyses. We generated risk scores for short-term and long-term outcome prediction, validating their use in two independent cohorts totaling 451 patients. Thirty-six percent of the derivation cohort were transplanted or died over a cumulative follow-up of 7,904 years. Serum alkaline phosphatase of at least 2.4 × upper limit of normal at 1 year after diagnosis was predictive of 10-year outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.05; C = 0.63; median transplant-free survival 63 versus 108 months; P < 0.0001), as was the presence of extrahepatic biliary disease (HR = 1.45; P = 0.01). We developed two risk scoring systems based on age, values of bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, platelets, presence of extrahepatic biliary disease, and variceal hemorrhage, which predicted 2-year and 10-year outcomes with good discrimination (C statistic = 0.81 and 0.80, respectively). Both UK-PSC risk scores were well-validated in our external cohort and outperformed the Mayo Clinic and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores (C statistic = 0.75 and 0.63, respectively). Although heterozygosity for the previously validated human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR*03:01 risk allele predicted increased risk of adverse outcome (HR = 1.33; P = 0.001), its addition did not improve the predictive accuracy of the UK-PSC risk scores. Conclusion: Our analyses, based on a detailed clinical evaluation of a large representative cohort of participants with PSC, furthers our understanding of clinical risk markers and reports the development and validation of a real-world scoring system to identify those patients most likely to die or require liver transplantation.