Projecting the Future Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Summary and Recommendations.

This article summarizes the findings of a Pediatrics supplement addressing the United States workforce for 15 pediatric subspecialties. It includes results from a microsimulation model projecting supply through 2040; growth is forecasted to be uneven across the subspecialties with worsening geographic maldistribution. Although each subspecialty has unique characteristics, commonalities include (1) the changing demographics and healthcare needs of children, including mental health; (2) poor outcomes for children experiencing adverse social drivers of health, including racism; and (3) dependence on other subspecialties. Common healthcare delivery challenges include (1) physician shortages for some subspecialties; (2) misalignment between locations of training programs and subspecialists and areas of projected child population growth; (3) tension between increasing subsubspecialization to address rare diseases and general subspecialty care; (4) the need to expand clinical reach through collaboration with other physicians and advanced practice providers; (5) the lack of parity between Medicare, which funds much of adult care, and Medicaid, which funds over half of pediatric subspecialty care; and (6) low compensation of pediatric subspecialists compared with adult subspecialists. Overall, subspecialists identified the lack of a central authority to monitor and inform child healthcare provided by pediatric subspecialists as a challenge. Future research on the pediatric subspecialty workforce and the children it serves will be necessary to ensure these children's needs are met. Together, these articles provide overarching and subspecialty-specific recommendations to improve training, recruitment, and retention of a diverse workforce, implement innovative models of care, drive policy changes, and advise future research.

Child Health and the Neonatal-Perinatal Medicine Workforce: 2020-2040.

In 2022, 3.7 million children were born in the United States, of whom ∼600 000 received care from a neonatologist. The dramatic growth of the neonatal-perinatal medicine (NPM) workforce from 375 in 1975 to 5250 in 2022 has paralleled exploding clinical demand. As newborn medicine continues to push the limits of gestational viability and medical complexity, the NPM workforce must advance in numbers, clinical capability, scientific discovery, and leadership. This article, as part of an American Board of Pediatrics Foundation-sponsored supplement that is designed to project the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce, features a discussion of the NPM workforce's history and current status, factors that have shaped its current profile, and some plausible scenarios of the workforce's needs and configuration in the future. In the article, we use an analytical model that forecasts the growth trajectory of the neonatologist workforce from 2020 through 2040. The model uses recent data on the number of neonatologists and clinical work equivalents per 100 000 children and projects future workforce supply under several theoretical scenarios created by modifying key baseline parameters. The predictions of this model confirm the need for a greater sustainable clinical capacity of the NPM workforce. Several future trends indicate that there may be geographic shortages of neonatologists, similar to expected shortages in other pediatric subspecialties. We do not address what an appropriate target for workforce size should be with the model or this article because the current and projected geographic variability in the NPM workforce and risk-appropriate care suggest that a uniform answer is unlikely.

Child Health and the US Pediatric Subspecialty Workforce: Planning for the Future.

This article opens a multi-article Pediatrics supplement that provides a rigorous analysis of the projected pediatric subspecialty workforce in the United States. Congenital variations, epigenetics, exposures, lifestyle, preventive care, and medical interventions from conception through young adulthood set the stage for health and wellbeing in adulthood. Although care provided by pediatric subspecialists is associated with better outcomes and lower costs compared with adult providers, the authors of recent articles in the lay and medical literature have questioned the capacity of pediatric subspecialists to meet children's health care needs. This article highlights that, despite numerous advances in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, the last decade has witnessed increasing numbers of children with acute or chronic physical and mental health disorders, including medical complexity, obesity, type 2 diabetes, anxiety, depression, and suicidality, all of which are exacerbated by poverty, racism, and other social drivers of health. In this article, we then describe the variability in the demographics, practice characteristics, and geographic distribution of the 15 core pediatric subspecialties certified by the American Board of Pediatrics. We then discuss the rationale and approach to the development of a pediatric subspecialty workforce model that forecasts subspecialist supply from 2020 to 2040 for 14 subspecialties at the national and subnational levels (not including the newest subspecialty, pediatric hospital medicine), accounting for US Census Bureau child population projections. The model does not account for the unique physical and mental needs of individual children, nor does it address the increasingly precarious commitment to, and financing of, pediatric subspecialty care in the US health care system impacting market demand.

Child Health and the Pediatric Pulmonology Workforce: 2020-2040.

There is concern as to whether the supply of pediatric pulmonology (PULM) subspecialists will be adequate to meet future demand. As part of an American Board of Pediatrics (ABP) Foundation-sponsored supplement investigating the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce, this article assesses the current PULM clinical workforce and estimates the clinical workforce supply in the United States through 2040. The current workforce was assessed using ABP certification and Maintenance of Certification data, and a workforce supply model evaluating population growth, clinical effort, and geographic trends was developed after incorporating ABP data. Findings demonstrate that the number of pediatric pulmonologists has gradually increased over the past decade, and the ratio of subspecialists to children is likely to increase another 20% to 40% over the next 2 decades, although absolute numbers remain small. Geographic variation in access will persist in some regions. The proportion of women in the discipline has increased, but the proportion of pediatric pulmonologists from underrepresented in medicine backgrounds still lags behind the general population. Based on current trends, the PULM clinical workforce appears equipped to meet both population growth and the modest increase in demand for clinical services speculated to occur because of changes in the subspecialty's clinical portfolio. However, several factors could inhibit growth, and geographic maldistribution may continue to impact care access. Efforts to address variation in access and demographic diversity in the field are warranted. This article concludes by discussing the training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Gastroenterology Workforce: 2020-2040.

This article is part of an American Board of Pediatrics Foundation-sponsored effort to analyze and forecast the pediatric subspecialty workforce between 2020 and 2040. Herein, an overview of the current pediatric gastroenterology workforce is provided, including demographics, work characteristics, and geographic distribution of practitioners. Brief context is provided on the changing nature of current practice models and the increasing prevalence of some commonly seen disorders. On the basis of a rigorous microsimulation workforce projection model, projected changes from 2020 to 2040 in the number of pediatric gastroenterologists and clinical workforce equivalents in the United States are presented. The article closes with a brief discussion of training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research implications of the data presented. This data-driven analysis suggests that the field of pediatric gastroenterology will continue to grow in scope and complexity, propelled by scientific advances and the increasing prevalence of many disorders relevant to the discipline. The workforce is projected to double by 2040, a growth rate faster than most other pediatric subspecialties. Disparities in care related to geography, race, and ethnicity are among the most significant challenges for the years ahead. Changes to training and education, incentives to meet the needs of underserved populations, and new multidisciplinary models for health care delivery will be necessary to optimally meet the volume, diversity, and complexity of children with gastroenterological diseases in the years ahead.

Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Workforce: 2020-2040.

Pediatric infectious diseases (PID) physicians prevent and treat childhood infections through clinical care, research, public health, education, antimicrobial stewardship, and infection prevention. This article is part of an American Board of Pediatrics Foundation-sponsored supplement investigating the future of the pediatric subspecialty workforce. The article offers context to findings from a modeling analysis estimating the supply of PID subspecialists in the United States between 2020 and 2040. It provides an overview of children cared for by PID subspecialists, reviews the current state of the PID workforce, and discusses the projected headcount and clinical workforce equivalents of PID subspecialists at the national, census region, and census division levels over this 2-decade period. The article concludes by discussing the education and training, clinical practice, policy, and research implications of the data presented. Adjusting for population growth, the PID workforce is projected to grow more slowly than most other pediatric subspecialties and geographic disparities in access to PID care are expected to worsen. In models considering alternative scenarios, decreases in the number of fellows and time spent in clinical care significantly affect the PID workforce. Notably, model assumptions may not adequately account for potential threats to the PID workforce, including a declining number of fellows entering training and the unknown impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and future emerging infections on workforce attrition. Changes to education and training, clinical care, and policy are needed to ensure the PID workforce can meet the future needs of US children.

Implementing Social Risk Screening and Referral to Resources in the NICU.

OBJECTIVE: Social risk screening is recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics, but this practice is underutilized in NICUs. To address this gap in social care, we aimed to increase rates of: (1) systematic social risk screening and (2) connection with community resources, each to ≥50% over a 14-month period. METHODS: We conducted a quality improvement initiative from November 2020 to January 2022. We adapted a screening tool and used Plan-Do-Study-Act cycles to integrate screening and referral to resources into clinical workflow. Primary outcome measures included the percentage of (1) families screened and (2) connection with resources. We examined screening by maternal race/ethnicity and primary language. Process measures were (1) time from admission to screening and (2) percentage of referrals provided to families reporting unmet needs and requesting assistance. We used statistical process control to assess change over time and χ2 tests to compare screening by race/ethnicity and language. RESULTS: The rates of systematic screening increased from 0% to 49%. Among 103 families screened, 84% had ≥1, and 64% had ≥2 unmet needs, with a total of 221 needs reported. Education, employment, transportation, and food were the most common needs. Screening rates did not vary by race/ethnicity or language. Among families requesting assistance, 98% received referrals. The iterative improvement of a written resource guide and community partnerships led to increased rates of connection with resources from 21% to 52%. CONCLUSION: Leveraging existing staff, our social risk screening and referral intervention built the capacity to address the high burden of unmet needs among NICU families.

Anti-Poverty Medicine Through Medical-Financial Partnerships: A New Approach to Child Poverty.

Poverty threatens child health. In the United States, financial strain, which encompasses income and asset poverty, is common with many complex etiologies. Even relatively successful antipoverty programs and policies fall short of serving all families in need, endangering health. We describe a new approach to address this pervasive health problem: antipoverty medicine. Historically, medicine has viewed poverty as a social problem outside of its scope. Increasingly, health care has addressed poverty's downstream effects, such as food and housing insecurity. However, strong evidence now shows that poverty affects biology, and thus, merits treatment as a medical problem. A new approach uses Medical-Financial Partnerships (MFPs), in which healthcare systems and financial service organizations collaborate to improve health by reducing family financial strain. MFPs help families grow assets by increasing savings, decreasing debt, and improving credit and economic opportunity while building a solid foundation for lifelong financial, physical, and mental health. We review evidence-based approaches to poverty alleviation, including conditional and unconditional cash transfers, savings vehicles, debt relief, credit repair, financial coaching, and employment assistance. We describe current national MFPs and highlight different applications of these evidence-based clinical financial interventions. Current MFP models reveal implementation opportunities and challenges, including time and space constraints, time-sensitive processes, lack of familiarity among patients and communities served, and sustainability in traditional medical settings. We conclude that pediatric health care practices can intervene upon poverty and should consider embracing antipoverty medicine as an essential part of the future of pediatric care.

National Pediatric Experience With Virtual Interviews: Lessons Learned and Future Recommendations.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic significantly impacted undergraduate and graduate medical education and created challenges that prevented a traditional approach to residency and fellowship recruitment and interviews. Early in the pandemic, the pediatric education community came together to support applicants and training programs and to foster an equitable recruitment process. We describe many of our community's innovations, including the use of virtual cafés to educate programs and highlight best practices for virtual recruitment and the use of regional webinars to highlight residency programs and provide information to applicants. Surveys of applicants and programs suggest that the virtual interview process worked well overall, with applicants and programs saving both time and money and programs maintaining a high rate of filling their positions. On the basis of this experience, we highlight the strengths and weaknesses of 3 potential models for future interview seasons. We close with a series of questions that need further investigation to create an effective and equitable recruitment process for the future.

The Pediatric Workforce: Recent Data Trends, Questions, and Challenges for the Future.

The future of the pediatric workforce has been the subject of significant dialogue in the pediatric community and generated much discussion in the academic literature. There are significant concerns regarding the ability of pediatricians to meet the growing demands of our pediatric population. Over the past 5 years, there has been a decline in the percentage of doctor of osteopathic medicine students who pursue a career in pediatrics but an equally important increase in the number of pediatric positions that are filled by doctor of osteopathic medicine students and international medical graduates. Although there has been an increase in the number of pediatric positions offered in the National Resident Matching Program, the last 4 years have seen a significant increase in the number of unfilled pediatric positions. A number of pediatric subspecialties struggle to fill their training positions, and those with low match rates may have 20% to 40% fewer applicants than positions. The pediatric vision for the future must include a commitment to a comprehensive strategic planning process with the many organizations involved across the multiple stages of the educational continuum. It is time to elucidate and address the questions raised by the workforce data. Developing solutions to these questions will require a careful planning process and a thoughtful analysis of the pediatric workforce data. Establishing this as an important priority will require a major collaborative effort between pediatric academic and professional organizations, but the future benefit to the nation's children will be significant.