Perioperative research into memory (PRiMe), part 2: Adult burns intensive care patients show altered structure and function of the default mode network.

BACKGROUND: Long-term cognitive impairment (LTCI) is experienced by up to two thirds of patients discharged from burns intensive care units (BICUs), however little is known about its neurobiological basis. This study investigated if patients previously admitted to BICU showed structural and functional MRI changes of the Default Mode Network (DMN). METHODS: Fifteen patients previously admitted to BICU with a significant burns injury, and 15 matched volunteers, underwent structural and functional MRI scans. Functional connectivity, fractional anisotropy and cortical thickness of the main DMN subdivisions (anterior DMN (aDMN), posterior DMN (pDMN) and right (rTPJ) and left (lTPJ) temporo-parietal junctions) were compared between patients and volunteers, with differences correlated against cognitive performance. RESULTS: Functional connectivity between rTPJ and pDMN (t = 2.91, p = 0.011) and between rTPJ and lTPJ (t = 3.18, p = 0.008) was lower in patients compared to volunteers. Functional connectivity between rTPJ and pDMN correlated with cognitive performance (r2 =0.33, p < 0.001). Mean fractional anisotropy of rTPJ (t = 2.70, p = 0.008) and lTPJ (T = 2.39, p = 0.015) was lower in patients but there was no difference in cortical thickness. CONCLUSIONS: Patients previously admitted to BICU show structural and functional disruption of the DMN. Since functional changes correlate with cognitive performance, this should direct further research into intensive-care-related cognitive impairment.

An international RAND/UCLA expert panel to determine the optimal diagnosis and management of burn inhalation injury.

BACKGROUND: Burn inhalation injury (BII) is a major cause of burn-related mortality and morbidity. Despite published practice guidelines, no consensus exists for the best strategies regarding diagnosis and management of BII. A modified DELPHI study using the RAND/UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) Appropriateness Method (RAM) systematically analysed the opinions of an expert panel. Expert opinion was combined with available evidence to determine what constitutes appropriate and inappropriate judgement in the diagnosis and management of BII. METHODS: A 15-person multidisciplinary panel comprised anaesthetists, intensivists and plastic surgeons involved in the clinical management of major burn patients adopted a modified Delphi approach using the RAM method. They rated the appropriateness of statements describing diagnostic and management options for BII on a Likert scale. A modified final survey comprising 140 statements was completed, subdivided into history and physical examination (20), investigations (39), airway management (5), systemic toxicity (23), invasive mechanical ventilation (29) and pharmacotherapy (24). Median appropriateness ratings and the disagreement index (DI) were calculated to classify statements as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate. RESULTS: Of 140 statements, 74 were rated as appropriate, 40 as uncertain and 26 as inappropriate. Initial intubation with ≥ 8.0 mm endotracheal tubes, lung protective ventilatory strategies, initial bronchoscopic lavage, serial bronchoscopic lavage for severe BII, nebulised heparin and salbutamol administration for moderate-severe BII and N-acetylcysteine for moderate BII were rated appropriate. Non-protective ventilatory strategies, high-frequency oscillatory ventilation, high-frequency percussive ventilation, prophylactic systemic antibiotics and corticosteroids were rated inappropriate. Experts disagreed (DI ≥ 1) on six statements, classified uncertain: the use of flexible fiberoptic bronchoscopy to guide fluid requirements (DI = 1.52), intubation with endotracheal tubes of internal diameter < 8.0 mm (DI = 1.19), use of airway pressure release ventilation modality (DI = 1.19) and nebulised 5000IU heparin, N-acetylcysteine and salbutamol for mild BII (DI = 1.52, 1.70, 1.36, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Burns experts mostly agreed on appropriate and inappropriate diagnostic and management criteria of BII as in published guidance. Uncertainty exists as to the optimal diagnosis and management of differing grades of severity of BII. Future research should investigate the accuracy of bronchoscopic grading of BII, the value of bronchial lavage in differing severity groups and the effectiveness of nebulised therapies in different severities of BII.

WHY STOP? A prospective observational vignette-based study to determine the cognitive-behavioural effects of rapid diagnostic PCR-based point-of-care test results on antibiotic cessation in ICU infections.

OBJECTIVES: Point-of-care tests (POCTs) for infection offer accurate rapid diagnostics but do not consistently improve antibiotic stewardship (ASP) of suspected ventilator-associated pneumonia. We aimed to measure the effect of a negative PCR-POCT result on intensive care unit (ICU) clinicians' antibiotic decisions and the additional effects of patient trajectory and cognitive-behavioural factors (clinician intuition, dis/interest in POCT, risk averseness). DESIGN: Observational cohort simulation study. SETTING: ICU. PARTICIPANTS: 70 ICU consultants/trainees working in UK-based teaching hospitals. METHODS: Clinicians saw four case vignettes describing patients who had completed a course of antibiotics for respiratory infection. Vignettes comprised clinical and biological data (ie, white cell count, C reactive protein), varied to create four trajectories: clinico-biological improvement (the 'improvement' case), clinico-biological worsening ('worsening'), clinical improvement/biological worsening ('discordant clin better'), clinical worsening/biological improvement ('discordant clin worse'). Based on this, clinicians made an initial antibiotics decision (stop/continue) and rated confidence (6-point Likert scale). A PCR-based POCT was then offered, which clinicians could accept or decline. All clinicians (including those who declined) were shown the result, which was negative. Clinicians updated their antibiotics decision and confidence. MEASURES: Antibiotics decisions and confidence were compared pre-POCT versus post-POCT, per vignette. RESULTS: A negative POCT result increased the proportion of stop decisions (54% pre-POCT vs 70% post-POCT, χ2(1)=25.82, p<0.001, w=0.32) in all vignettes except improvement (already high), most notably in discordant clin worse (49% pre-POCT vs 74% post-POCT). In a linear regression, factors that significantly reduced clinicians' inclination to stop antibiotics were a worsening trajectory (b=-0.73 (-1.33, -0.14), p=0.015), initial confidence in continuing (b=0.66 (0.56, 0.76), p<0.001) and involuntary receipt of POCT results (clinicians who accepted the POCT were more inclined to stop than clinicians who declined it, b=1.30 (0.58, 2.02), p<0.001). Clinician risk averseness was not found to influence antibiotic decisions (b=-0.01 (-0.12, 0.10), p=0.872). CONCLUSIONS: A negative PCR-POCT result can encourage antibiotic cessation in ICU, notably in cases of clinical worsening (where the inclination might otherwise be to continue). This effect may be reduced by high clinician confidence to continue and/or disinterest in POCT, perhaps due to low trust/perceived utility. Such cognitive-behavioural and trajectorial factors warrant greater consideration in future ASP study design.

High daily caffeine intake is associated with lower propofol requirements for anesthetic induction.

Background and Aims: There is significant interindividual variation in the dose of propofol required for anesthetic induction. Factors dictating this are poorly described, but understanding them would be useful for anesthetic drug dosing. It has been shown in rats and recently in humans that caffeine administration accelerates recovery from anesthesia, but no study has assessed the effect on anesthetic induction. Material and Methods: Forty American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)-I, 18-65-year-old patients, undergoing day case general anesthesia with propofol and fentanyl took part in this observational study. Total daily caffeine intake (mg) was estimated using the caffeine assessment tool and caffeine content values from the US Department of Agriculture National Nutrient Database. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling was used to estimate the effect site concentration of propofol at loss of consciousness (Ce(p) LOC). Results: Median (interquartile range [IQR]) daily caffeine intake was 106 (51-193) mg. Ce(p) LOC was lower in those with caffeine intake greater than or equal to the median of 106 mg (median (IQR) = 0.64 µg/ml (0.51-0.72) vs. 0.70 µg/ml (0.57-1.10), P = 0.04). The effect was robust when controlling for weight-adjusted fentanyl dose, age, smoking status, and alcohol intake (F (1,34) = 4.66, P = 0.04). Conclusion: High daily caffeine intake is associated with lower propofol requirements for day case anesthetic induction. We propose that high daily caffeine intake may cause lower arousal levels prior to surgery due to a relative caffeine deficit caused by being nil by mouth. As such, assessment of daily caffeine intake preoperatively may aid anesthetic drug dosing.

A protocol for a pilot study to assess the feasibility of a randomised clinical trial of perioperative intravenous lidocaine on colorectal cancer outcome after surgery (FLICOR trial).

Background: Cancer recurrence after curative cancer surgery significantly impacts patients and healthcare services. Before surgery, a small number of clinically undetectable circulating tumour cells are often present. The surgical stress response promotes the distribution and proliferation of circulating tumour cells leading to cancer recurrence and metastasis. Preclinical evidence suggests that lidocaine may exert 'anti-cancer' effects and alleviate pro-metastatic environments. The Feasibility Study of Lidocaine Infusion During Bowel Cancer Surgery for Cancer Outcome (FLICOR) will assess the feasibility of conducting a clinical trial on perioperative intravenous lidocaine infusion for postoperative colorectal cancer outcomes. Methods: The study is a double-blinded, randomised, controlled pilot study for a full trial comparing intravenous lidocaine administration at 1.5 mg kg-1 bolus followed by 1.5 mg kg-1 h-1 infusion for 24 h with placebo in patients undergoing minimally invasive (laparoscopy or robotic) colorectal cancer surgery. The feasibility of data collection instruments will be measured, including those for future economic evaluation and clinical and patient-reported outcomes. For the exploratory outcomes, blood samples will be collected before and after surgery on days 0, 1, and 3. Recruitment is planned for two NHS Trusts over 6 months with a 12-month follow-up. Patients and clinicians will be asked for their feedback on the study process. Dissemination plan: Study data will be disseminated to trial participants, the public, and academic communities. The work will be presented at national and international conferences to stimulate interest and enthusiasm for centres to participate in the future definitive trial. This research will also be published in peer-reviewed open-access journals. Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN29594895 (ISRCTN), NCT05250791 (ClinicalTrials.gov). Protocol version number and date: 3.0, February 8, 2023.

Elevated 18:0 lysophosphatidylcholine contributes to the development of pain in tissue injury.

ABSTRACT: Tissue injuries, including burns, are major causes of death and morbidity worldwide. These injuries result in the release of intracellular molecules and subsequent inflammatory reactions, changing the tissues' chemical milieu and leading to the development of persistent pain through activating pain-sensing primary sensory neurons. However, the majority of pain-inducing agents in injured tissues are unknown. Here, we report that, amongst other important metabolite changes, lysophosphatidylcholines (LPCs) including 18:0 LPC exhibit significant and consistent local burn injury-induced changes in concentration. 18:0 LPC induces immediate pain and the development of hypersensitivities to mechanical and heat stimuli through molecules including the transient receptor potential ion channel, vanilloid subfamily, member 1, and member 2 at least partly via increasing lateral pressure in the membrane. As levels of LPCs including 18:0 LPC increase in other tissue injuries, our data reveal a novel role for these lipids in injury-associated pain. These findings have high potential to improve patient care.

Inflammation Disrupts the Brain Network of Executive Function after Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate postoperative functional connectivity (FC) alterations across impaired cognitive domains and their causal relationships with systemic inflammation. BACKGROUND: Postoperative cognitive dysfunction commonly occurs after cardiac surgery, and both systemic and neuroinflammation may trigger its development. Whether FC alterations underlying deficits in specific cognitive domains after cardiac surgery are affected by inflammation remains unclear. METHODS: Seventeen patients, who underwent cardiac valve replacement, completed a neuropsychological test battery and brain MRI scan before surgery and on days 7 and 30 after surgery compared to age-matched healthy controls. Blood samples were taken for tumor necrosis factor-a and interleukin-6 measurements. Seed-to-voxel FC of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) was examined. Bivariate correlation and linear regression models were used to determine the relationships among cognitive function, FC alterations, and cytokines. RESULTS: Executive function was significantly impaired after cardiac surgery. At day 7 follow-up, the surgical patients, compared to the controls, demonstrated significantly decreased DLPFC FC with the superior parietal lobe and attenuated negative connectivity in the default mode network, including the angular gyrus and posterior cingulate cortex. The left DLPFC enhanced the connectivity in the right DLPFC and posterior cingulate cortex, all of which were related to the increased tumor necrosis factor-a and decreased executive function up to day 7 after cardiac surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The decreased FC of executive control network and its anticorrelation with the default mode network may contribute to executive function deficits after cardiac surgery. Systemic inflammation may trigger these transient FC changes and executive function impairments.

Robots in Healthcare: a Scoping Review.

Purpose of Review: Robots are increasingly being adopted in healthcare to carry out various tasks that enhance patient care. This scoping review aims to establish the types of robots being used in healthcare and identify where they are deployed. Recent Findings: Technological advancements have enabled robots to conduct increasingly varied and complex roles in healthcare. For instance, precision tasks such as improving dexterity following stroke or assisting with percutaneous coronary intervention. Summary: This review found that robots have played 10 main roles across a variety of clinical environments. The two predominant roles were surgical and rehabilitation and mobility. Although robots were mainly studied in the surgical theatre and rehabilitation unit, other settings ranged from the hospital ward to inpatient pharmacy. Healthcare needs are constantly evolving, as demonstrated by COVID-19, and robots may assist in adapting to these changes. The future will involve increased telepresence and infrastructure systems will have to improve to allow for this. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43154-022-00095-4.

Prognosis and antibody profiles in survivors of critical illness from COVID-19: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to assess the long-term outcomes of survivors of critical illness from COVID-19. METHODS: Ninety-two survivors of critical illness from COVID-19 from four hospitals in Hubei Province, China participated in this prospective cohort study. Multiple characteristics, including lung function (lung volumes, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide, chest computed tomography scores, and walking capacity); immune status (SARS-CoV-2-neutralising antibody and all subtypes of immunoglobulin (Ig) G against SARS-CoV-2, immune cells in response to ex vivo antigen peptide stimuli, and lymphocyte count and its subtypes); liver, coagulation, and kidney functions; quality of life; cognitive function; and mental status, were assessed after 3, 6, and 12 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Amongst the 92 enrolled survivors, 72 (78%) patients required mechanical ventilation. At 12 months, the predicted percentage diffusing capacity of lung for carbon monoxide was 82% (inter-quartile range [IQR]: 76-97%) with a residual volume of 77 (64-88)%. Other lung function parameters and the 6-min walk test improved gradually over time and were almost back to normal by 12 months. The titres of IgG and neutralising antibody to COVID-19 remained high at 12 months compared with those of controls who were not infected with COVID-19, although IgG titres decreased significantly from 34.0 (IQR: 23.8-74.3) to 15.0 (5.8-24.3) AU ml-1 (P<0.001), whereas neutralising antibodies decreased from 29.99 (IQR: 19.43-53.93) AU ml-1 at 6 months to 19.75 (13.1-29.8) AU ml-1 (P<0.001) at 12 months. In general, liver, kidney, physical, and mental functions also improved over time. CONCLUSIONS: Survivors of critical illness from COVID-19 show some persistent long-term impairments in lung function. However, a majority of these tests were normal by 12 months. These patients still had detectable levels of neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and all types of IgG at 12 months, but the levels had declined over this time period. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: None.

Continuous Non-Invasive Eye Tracking In Intensive Care.

Delirium, an acute confusional state, is a common occurrence in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Patients who develop delirium have globally worse outcomes than those who do not and thus the diagnosis of delirium is of importance. Current diagnostic methods have several limitations leading to the suggestion of eye-tracking for its diagnosis through in-attention. To ascertain the requirements for an eye-tracking system in an adult ICU, measurements were carried out at Chelsea & Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. Clinical criteria guided empirical requirements of invasiveness and calibration methods while accuracy and precision were measured. A non-invasive system was then developed utilising a patient-facing RGB camera and a scene-facing RGBD camera. The system's performance was measured in a replicated laboratory environment with healthy volunteers revealing an accuracy and precision that outperforms what is required while simultaneously being non-invasive and calibration-free The system was then deployed as part of CONfuSED, a clinical feasibility study where we report aggregated data from 5 patients as well as the acceptability of the system to bedside nursing staff. To the best of our knowledge, the system is the first eye-tracking systems to be deployed in an ICU for delirium monitoring.

Vitamin C Intervention for Critical COVID-19: A Pragmatic Review of the Current Level of Evidence.

Severe respiratory infections are characterized by elevated inflammation and generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) which may lead to a decrease in antioxidants such as vitamin C and a higher requirement for the vitamin. Administration of intravenous vitamin C to patients with pneumonia and sepsis appears to decrease the severity of the disease and potentially improve survival rate. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection causes pneumonia, sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in severe cases, and is referred to as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Patients with COVID-19 infection also appear to have depleted vitamin C status and require additional supplementation of vitamin C during the acute phase of the disease. To date there have been 12 vitamin C and COVID-19 trials published, including five randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and seven retrospective cohort studies. The current level of evidence from the RCTs suggests that intravenous vitamin C intervention may improve oxygenation parameters, reduce inflammatory markers, decrease days in hospital and reduce mortality, particularly in the more severely ill patients. High doses of oral vitamin C supplementation may also improve the rate of recovery in less severe cases. No adverse events have been reported in published vitamin C clinical trials in COVID-19 patients. Upcoming findings from larger RCTs will provide additional evidence on vitamin supplementation in COVID-19 patients.

Lactate dehydrogenase activity staining demonstrates time-dependent immune cell infiltration in human ex-vivo burn-injured skin.

Burn injuries constitute one of the most serious accidental injuries. Increased metabolic rate is a hallmark feature of burn injury. Visualising lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity has been previously used to identify metabolic activity differences, hence cell viability and burn depth in burn skin. LDH activity was visualised in injured and uninjured skin from 38 sub-acute burn patients. LDH activity aided the identification of spatially correlating immunocompetent cells in a sub-group of six patients. Desorption Electrospray Ionisation Mass Spectrometry Imaging (DESI MSI) was used to describe relative lactate and pyruvate abundance in burned and uninjured tissue. LDH activity was significantly increased in the middle and deep regions of burnt skin compared with superficial areas in burnt skin and uninjured tissue and positively correlated with post-burn time. Regions of increased LDH activity showed high pyruvate and low lactate abundance when examined with DESI-MSI. Areas of increased LDH activity exhibited cellular infiltration, including CD3 + and CD4 + T-lymphocytes and CD68 + macrophages. Our data demonstrate a steady increase in functional LDH activity in sub-acute burn wounds linked to cellular infiltration. The cell types associated are related to tissue restructuring and inflammation. This region in burn wounds is likely the focus of dysregulated inflammation and hypermetabolism.

Early risk assessment for COVID-19 patients from emergency department data using machine learning.

Since its emergence in late 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a pandemic with more than 55 million reported cases and 1.3 million estimated deaths worldwide. While epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 have been reported, risk factors underlying the transition from mild to severe disease among patients remain poorly understood. In this retrospective study, we analysed data of 879 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a two-site NHS Trust hospital in London, England, between January 1st and May 26th, 2020, with a majority of cases occurring in March and April. We extracted anonymised demographic data, physiological clinical variables and laboratory results from electronic healthcare records (EHR) and applied multivariate logistic regression, random forest and extreme gradient boosted trees. To evaluate the potential for early risk assessment, we used data available during patients' initial presentation at the emergency department (ED) to predict deterioration to one of three clinical endpoints in the remainder of the hospital stay: admission to intensive care, need for invasive mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. Based on the trained models, we extracted the most informative clinical features in determining these patient trajectories. Considering our inclusion criteria, we have identified 129 of 879 (15%) patients that required intensive care, 62 of 878 (7%) patients needing mechanical ventilation, and 193 of 619 (31%) cases of in-hospital mortality. Our models learned successfully from early clinical data and predicted clinical endpoints with high accuracy, the best model achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) scores of 0.76 to 0.87 (F1 scores of 0.42-0.60). Younger patient age was associated with an increased risk of receiving intensive care and ventilation, but lower risk of mortality. Clinical indicators of a patient's oxygen supply and selected laboratory results, such as blood lactate and creatinine levels, were most predictive of COVID-19 patient trajectories. Among COVID-19 patients machine learning can aid in the early identification of those with a poor prognosis, using EHR data collected during a patient's first presentation at ED. Patient age and measures of oxygenation status during ED stay are primary indicators of poor patient outcomes.

Surgical Tracheostomy Outcomes in COVID-19-Positive Patients.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this case series was to demonstrate that surgical tracheostomy can be undertaken safely in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and that it is an effective weaning tool. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case series. SETTING: Single academic teaching hospital in London. METHODS: All adult patients admitted to the adult intensive care unit (AICU), diagnosed with severe COVID-19 infection and requiring surgical tracheostomy between the March 10, 2020, and May 1, 2020, were included. Data collection focused upon patient demographics, AICU admission data, tracheostomy-specific data, and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Twenty patients with COVID-19 underwent surgical tracheostomy. The main indication for tracheostomy was to assist in respiratory weaning. Patients had undergone mechanical ventilation for a median of 16.5 days prior to surgical tracheostomy. Tracheostomy remained in situ for a median of 12.5 days. Sixty percent of patients were decannulated at the end of the data collection period. There were no serious immediate or short-term complications. Surgical tracheostomy facilitated significant reduction in intravenous sedation at 48 hours after tracheostomy formation. There was no confirmed COVID-19 infection or reported sickness in the operating surgical or anesthetic teams. CONCLUSION: Surgical tracheostomy has been demonstrated to be an effective weaning tool in patients with severe COVID-19 infection.

Adult intensive care unit admissions with severe COVID-19 infection following emergency Caesarean section deliveries: A case series.

BACKGROUND: UK data suggest 6% of COVID-19 hospital admissions are either currently pregnant or immediately post-partum. However, the current literature suggests that if COVID-19 occurs in pregnancy, or post-partum, symptoms are mostly mild. METHODS: All COVID-19 admissions to one acute London National Health Service Foundation trust were reviewed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to 1 May 2020 to establish whether there were any pregnant or immediately post-partum admissions. Data were extracted from hospital electronic records and anonymised. Any patients admitted to adult intensive care unit had their case notes reviewed in detail and comparison made to a local risk-assessment guideline identifying patients at-risk of thromboembolic events or cytokine storms. Local hospital guidelines were followed. Patients admitted to adult intensive care unit gave written consent. RESULTS: A total of 24 pregnant or immediately post-partum patients with COVID-19 were admitted. Three patients required long adult intensive care unit admissions for severe single-organ respiratory failure after emergency C-sections. Two of these patients required proning (three times and eight times, respectively). All were considered medium risk for thromboembolic events but had rising D-dimers following adult intensive care unit admission, resulting in increased dosing of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis throughout their admission. All were considered low risk for a cytokine storm, and none had any significant cardiovascular or renal involvement. One patient developed a super-imposed fungal lung infection. All three patients developed delirium following cessation of sedation. CONCLUSION: Pregnant or immediately post-partum women can develop severe COVID-19 symptoms requiring prolonged adult intensive care unit admission. It is likely to be single-organ failure, but patients are at a high risk of a thromboembolic event and delirium.

Increase in COVID-19 inpatient survival following detection of Thromboembolic and Cytokine storm risk from the point of admission to hospital by a near real time Traffic-light System (TraCe-Tic)

Abstract Introduction Our goal was to evaluate if traffic-light driven personalized care for COVID-19 was associated with improved survival in acute hospital settings. Methods Discharge outcomes were evaluated before and after prospective implementation of a real-time dashboard with feedback to ward-based clinicians. Thromboembolism categories were "medium-risk" (D-dimer >1000 ng/mL or CRP >200 mg/L); "high-risk" (D-dimer >3000 ng/mL or CRP >250 mg/L) or "suspected" (D-dimer >5000 ng/mL). Cytokine storm risk was categorized by ferritin. Results 939/1039 COVID-19 positive patients (median age 67 years, 563/939 (60%) male) completed hospital encounters to death or discharge by 21st May 2020. Thromboembolism flag criteria were reached by 568/939 (60.5%), including 238/275 (86.6%) of the patients who died, and 330/664 (49.7%) of the patients who survived to discharge, p < 0.0001. Cytokine storm flag criteria were reached by 212 (22.6%) of admissions, including 80/275 (29.1%) of the patients who died, and 132/664 (19.9%) of the patients who survived, p < 0.0001. The maximum thromboembolism flag discriminated completed encounter mortality (no flag: 37/371 [9.97%] died; medium-risk: 68/239 [28.5%]; high-risk: 105/205 [51.2%]; and suspected thromboembolism: 65/124 [52.4%], p < 0.0001). Flag criteria were reached by 535 consecutive COVID-19 positive patients whose hospital encounter completed before traffic-light introduction: 173/535 (32.3% [95% confidence intervals 28.0, 36.0]) died. For the 200 consecutive admissions after implementation of real-time traffic light flags, 46/200 (23.0% [95% confidence intervals 17.1, 28.9]) died, p = 0.013. Adjusted for age and sex, the probability of death was 0.33 (95% confidence intervals 0.30, 0.37) before traffic light implementation, 0.22 (0.17, 0.27) after implementation, p < 0.001. In subgroup analyses, older patients, males, and patients with hypertension (p ≤ 0.01), and/or diabetes (p = 0.05) derived the greatest benefit from admission under the traffic light system. Conclusion Personalized early interventions were associated with a 33% reduction in early mortality. We suggest benefit predominantly resulted from early triggers to review/enhance anticoagulation management, without exposing lower-risk patients to potential risks of full anticoagulation therapy.

Development and implementation of a COVID-19 near real-time traffic light system in an acute hospital setting.

Common causes of death in COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 include thromboembolic disease, cytokine storm and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Our aim was to develop a system for early detection of disease pattern in the emergency department (ED) that would enhance opportunities for personalised accelerated care to prevent disease progression. A single Trust's COVID-19 response control command was established, and a reporting team with bioinformaticians was deployed to develop a real-time traffic light system to support clinical and operational teams. An attempt was made to identify predictive elements for thromboembolism, cytokine storm and ARDS based on physiological measurements and blood tests, and to communicate to clinicians managing the patient, initially via single consultants. The input variables were age, sex, and first recorded blood pressure, respiratory rate, temperature, heart rate, indices of oxygenation and C-reactive protein. Early admissions were used to refine the predictors used in the traffic lights. Of 923 consecutive patients who tested COVID-19 positive, 592 (64%) flagged at risk for thromboembolism, 241/923 (26%) for cytokine storm and 361/923 (39%) for ARDS. Thromboembolism and cytokine storm flags were met in the ED for 342 (37.1%) patients. Of the 318 (34.5%) patients receiving thromboembolism flags, 49 (5.3% of all patients) were for suspected thromboembolism, 103 (11.1%) were high-risk and 166 (18.0%) were medium-risk. Of the 89 (9.6%) who received a cytokine storm flag from the ED, 18 (2.0% of all patients) were for suspected cytokine storm, 13 (1.4%) were high-risk and 58 (6.3%) were medium-risk. Males were more likely to receive a specific traffic light flag. In conclusion, ED predictors were used to identify high proportions of COVID-19 admissions at risk of clinical deterioration due to severity of disease, enabling accelerated care targeted to those more likely to benefit. Larger prospective studies are encouraged.

Increase in COVID-19 inpatient survival following detection of Thromboembolic and Cytokine storm risk from the point of admission to hospital by a near real time Traffic-light System (TraCe-Tic).

INTRODUCTION: Our goal was to evaluate if traffic-light driven personalized care for COVID-19 was associated with improved survival in acute hospital settings. METHODS: Discharge outcomes were evaluated before and after prospective implementation of a real-time dashboard with feedback to ward-based clinicians. Thromboembolism categories were "medium-risk" (D-dimer >1000ng/mL or CRP >200mg/L); "high-risk" (D-dimer >3000ng/mL or CRP >250mg/L) or "suspected" (D-dimer >5000ng/mL). Cytokine storm risk was categorized by ferritin. RESULTS: 939/1039 COVID-19 positive patients (median age 67 years, 563/939 (60%) male) completed hospital encounters to death or discharge by 21st May 2020. Thromboembolism flag criteria were reached by 568/939 (60.5%), including 238/275 (86.6%) of the patients who died, and 330/664 (49.7%) of the patients who survived to discharge, p<0.0001. Cytokine storm flag criteria were reached by 212 (22.6%) of admissions, including 80/275 (29.1%) of the patients who died, and 132/664 (19.9%) of the patients who survived, p<0.0001. The maximum thromboembolism flag discriminated completed encounter mortality (no flag: 37/371 [9.97%] died; medium-risk: 68/239 [28.5%]; high-risk: 105/205 [51.2%]; and suspected thromboembolism: 65/124 [52.4%], p<0.0001). Flag criteria were reached by 535 consecutive COVID-19 positive patients whose hospital encounter completed before traffic-light introduction: 173/535 (32.3% [95% confidence intervals 28.0, 36.0]) died. For the 200 consecutive admissions after implementation of real-time traffic light flags, 46/200 (23.0% [95% confidence intervals 17.1, 28.9]) died, p=0.013. Adjusted for age and sex, the probability of death was 0.33 (95% confidence intervals 0.30, 0.37) before traffic light implementation, 0.22 (0.17, 0.27) after implementation, p<0.001. In subgroup analyses, older patients, males, and patients with hypertension (p≤0.01), and/or diabetes (p=0.05) derived the greatest benefit from admission under the traffic light system. CONCLUSION: Personalized early interventions were associated with a 33% reduction in early mortality. We suggest benefit predominantly resulted from early triggers to review/enhance anticoagulation management, without exposing lower-risk patients to potential risks of full anticoagulation therapy.