Geospatial patterns of progress towards UNAIDS '95-95-95' targets and community vulnerability in Zambia: insights from population-based HIV impact assessments.

INTRODUCTION: In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS remains a leading cause of death. The UNAIDS established the '95-95-95' targets to improve HIV care continuum outcomes. Using geospatial data from the Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA), this study aims to investigate geospatial patterns in the '95-95-95' indicators and individual-level determinants that impede HIV care continuum in vulnerable communities, providing insights into the factors associated with gaps. METHODS: This study used data from the 2016 ZAMPHIA to investigate the geospatial distribution and individual-level determinants of engagement across the HIV care continuum in Zambia. Gaussian kernel interpolation and optimised hotspot analysis were used to identify geospatial patterns in the HIV care continuum, while geospatial k-means clustering was used to partition areas into clusters. The study also assessed healthcare availability, access and social determinants of healthcare utilisation. Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine the association between selected sociodemographic and behavioural covariates and the three main outcomes of study. RESULTS: Varied progress towards the '95-95-95' targets were observed in different regions of Zambia. Each '95' displayed a unique geographical pattern, independent of HIV prevalence, resulting in four distinct geographical clusters. Factors associated with gaps in the '95s' include younger age, male sex, and low wealth, with younger individuals having higher odds of not being on antiretroviral therapy and having detectable viral loads. CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in the HIV care continuum in Zambia, with different regions exhibiting unique geographical patterns and levels of performance in the '95-95-95' targets, highlighting the need for geospatial tailored interventions to address the specific needs of different subnational regions. These findings underscore the importance of addressing differential regional gaps in HIV diagnosis, enhancing community-level factors and developing innovative strategies to improve local HIV care continuum outcomes.

Geospatial Patterns of Progress towards UNAIDS "95-95-95" Targets and Community Vulnerability in Zambia.

In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS remains a leading cause of death. The UNAIDS established the "95-95-95" targets to improve HIV care continuum outcomes. Using geospatial data from the Zambia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZAMPHIA), this study aims to investigate geospatial patterns in the "95-95-95" indicators and individual-level determinants that impede HIV care continuum in vulnerable communities, providing insights into the factors associated with gaps. This study used data from the 2016 ZAMPHIA to investigate the geospatial distribution and individual-level determinants of engagement across the HIV care continuum in Zambia. Gaussian kernel interpolation and optimized hotspot analysis were used to identify geospatial patterns in the HIV care continuum, while geospatial k-means clustering was used to partition areas into clusters. The study also assessed healthcare availability, access, and social determinants of healthcare utilization. Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine the association between selected sociodemographic and behavioral covariates and the three main outcomes of study. Varied progress towards the "95-95-95" targets were observed in different regions of Zambia. Each "95" displayed a unique geographic pattern, independent of HIV prevalence, resulting in four distinct geographic clusters. Factors associated with gaps in the "95s" include younger age, male sex, and low wealth, with younger individuals having higher odds of not being on ART and having detectable viral loads. Our study revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in the HIV care continuum in Zambia, with different regions exhibiting unique geographic patterns and levels of performance in the "95-95-95" targets, highlighting the need for geospatial tailored interventions to address the specific needs of different subnational regions. These findings underscore the importance of addressing differential regional gaps in HIV diagnosis, enhancing community-level factors, and developing innovative strategies to improve local HIV care continuum outcomes.

Measuring Oral Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Continuation Through Electronic Health Records During Program Scale-Up Among the General Population in Zambia.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is being scaled-up in Zambia, but PrEP continuation data are limited by paper-based registers and aggregate reports. Utilization of Zambia's electronic health record (EHR) system, SmartCare, may address this gap. We analyzed individuals aged ≥ 15 years who initiated PrEP between October 2020 and September 2021 in four provinces in Zambia in SmartCare versus aggregate reports. We measured PrEP continuation using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models. SmartCare captured 29% (16,791/58,010) of new PrEP clients; 49% of clients continued at one month, and 89% discontinued PrEP by February 2022. Women were less likely than men to discontinue PrEP (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92, z = - 6.99, p < 0.001), and PrEP clients aged ≥ 50 years were less likely to discontinue PrEP compared to clients 15-19 years (aHR: 0.53, 95% CI 0.48-0.58, z = - 13.04, p < 0.001). Zambia's EHR is a valuable resource for measuring individual-level PrEP continuation over time and can be used to inform HIV prevention programs.

Mitigating the effects of COVID-19 on HIV treatment and care in Lusaka, Zambia: a before-after cohort study using mixed effects regression.

INTRODUCTION: The Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) issued COVID-19 mitigation guidance for HIV care immediately after the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Zambia on 18 March 2020. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia implemented MoH guidance by: 1) extending antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill duration to 6 multi-month dispensation (6MMD) and 2) task-shifting communication and mobilisation of those in HIV care to collect their next ART refill early. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 mitigation guidance on HIV care 3 months before and after guidance implementation. METHODS: We reviewed all ART pharmacy visit data in the national HIV medical record for PLHIV in care having ≥1 visit between 1 January-30 June 2020 at 59 HIV care facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. We undertook a before-after evaluation using mixed-effects Poisson regression to examine predictors and marginal probability of early clinic return (pharmacy visit >7 days before next appointment), proportion of late visit (>7 days late for next appointment) and probability of receiving a 6MMD ART refill. RESULTS: A total of 101 371 individuals (64% female, median age 39) with 130 486 pharmacy visits were included in the analysis. We observed a significant increase in the adjusted prevalence ratio (4.63; 95% CI 4.45 to 4.82) of early return before compared with after guidance implementation. Receipt of 6MMD increased from a weekly mean of 47.9% (95% CI 46.6% to 49.2%) before to 73.4% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.9%) after guidance implementation. The proportion of late visits (8-89 days late) was significantly higher before (18.8%, 95% CI17.2%to20.2%) compared with after (15.1%, 95% CI13.8%to16.4%) guidance implementation . CONCLUSIONS: Timely issuance and implementation of COVID-19 mitigation guidance involving task-shifted patient communication and mobilisation alongside 6MMD significantly increased early return to ART clinic, potentially reducing interruptions in HIV care during a global public health emergency.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of switching from d4T or AZT to a TDF-based first-line regimen in a resource-limited setting in rural Lesotho.

BACKGROUND: Latest World Health Organization guidelines recommend shifting away from Stavudine (d4T)-based regimens due to severe side effects. However, widespread replacement of d4T by Tenofovir (TDF) or Zidovudine (AZT) is hampered by cost concerns. METHODS: We established the cost-effectiveness of alternative first-line regimens using primary utilization, cost, and outcome data from a program in a rural district in Lesotho. We calculated cost per patient-year, incremental costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per life year, and per Quality Adjusted Life Year gained. Uncertainty was assessed using multiway and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Our study included 1260 patients representing 1635 patient-years on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Six hundred eight patients were on TDF, 290 were on AZT, and 362 were on d4T. Patients on d4T experienced more toxicities; toxicities with the biggest impact on quality of life were moderate neuropathy and severe lipodystrophy. The cost per patient-year ranged from US $266 on d4T to US $353 on TDF. Inpatient care and essential drug costs were higher for patients on d4T than on AZT or TDF. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio results suggest that AZT-based ART is weakly dominated by a combination of d4T- and TDF-based ART. DISCUSSION: This is one of the first analyses to investigate the cost-effectiveness of TDF using primary data in a resource-poor setting. Although TDF-based first-line ART is more costly than d4T, it is also more effective. Political pressure should be exerted to encourage further price reductions and additional generic manufacturing for TDF and partner drugs such as Efavirenz. This should be met by a commitment from donors and implementers to ensure that supply is met by a clear demand.

Antiretroviral treatment outcomes from a nurse-driven, community-supported HIV/AIDS treatment programme in rural Lesotho: observational cohort assessment at two years.

INTRODUCTION: Lesotho has the third highest HIV prevalence in the world (an adult prevalence of 23.2%). Despite a lack of resources for health, the country has implemented state-of-the-art antiretroviral treatment guidelines, including early initiation of treatment (<350 cells/mm3), tenofovir in first line, and nurse-initiated and managed HIV care, including antiretroviral therapy (ART), at primary health care level. PROGRAMME APPROACH: We describe two-year outcomes of a decentralized HIV/AIDS care programme run by Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, and the Christian Health Association of Lesotho in Scott catchment area, a rural health zone covering 14 clinics and one district hospital. Outcome data are described through a retrospective cohort analysis of adults and children initiated on ART between 2006 and 2008. DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION: Overall, 13,243 people have been enrolled in HIV care (5% children), and 5376 initiated on ART (6.5% children), 80% at primary care level. Between 2006 and 2008, annual enrolment more than doubled for adults and children, with no major external increase in human resources. The proportion of adults arriving sick (CD4 <50 cells/mm3) decreased from 22.2% in 2006 to 11.9% in 2008. Twelve-month outcomes are satisfactory in terms of mortality (11% for adults; 9% for children) and loss to follow up (8.8%). At 12 months, 80% of adults and 89% of children were alive and in care, meaning they were still taking their treatment; at 24 months, 77% of adults remained in care. CONCLUSION: Despite major resource constraints, Lesotho is comparing favourably with its better resourced neighbour, using the latest international ART recommendations. The successful two-year outcomes are further evidence that HIV/AIDS care and treatment can be provided effectively at the primary care level. The programme highlights how improving HIV care strengthened the primary health care system, and validates several critical areas for task shifting that are being considered by other countries in the region, including nurse-driven ART for adults and children, and lay counsellor-supported testing and counselling, adherence and case management.