Prognostic factors and prediction model for 1-year mortality after proximal humeral fracture.

The goal was to investigate if patient characteristics can be used to predict 1-year post-fracture mortality after proximal humeral fracture (PHF). A clinical prediction model showed that the combination of 6 pre-fracture characteristics demonstrated good predictive properties for mortality within 1 year of PHF. INTRODUCTION: Proximal humeral fractures (PFH) are the third most common major non-vertebral osteoporotic fractures in older persons and result in an increased mortality risk. The aim of this study was to investigate if patient characteristics can be used to predict 1-year post-fracture mortality. METHODS: Retrospective study with 261 patients aged 65 and older who were treated for a PHF in University Hospitals Leuven between 2016 and 2018. Baseline variables including demographics, residential status, and comorbidities were collected. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. A clinical prediction model was developed using LASSO regression and validated using split sample and bootstrapping methods. The discrimination and calibration were evaluated. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (10.3%) participants died within 1-year post-PHF. Pre-fracture independent ambulation (p < 0.001), living at home at time of fracture (p < 0.001), younger age (p = 0.006), higher BMI (p = 0.012), female gender (p = 0.014), and low number of comorbidities (p < 0.001) were predictors for 1-year survival. LASSO regression identified 6 stable predictors for a prediction model: age, gender, Charlson comorbidity score, BMI, cognitive impairment, and pre-fracture nursing home residency. The discrimination was 0.891 (95% CI, 0.833 to 0.949) in the training sample, 0.878 (0.792 to 0.963) in the validation sample and 0.756 (0.636 to 0.876) in the bootstrapping samples. A similar performance was observed for patients with and without surgery. The developed model demonstrated good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of 6 pre-fracture characteristics demonstrated good predictive properties for mortality within 1 year of PHF. These findings can guide PHF treatment decisions.

Cervical squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary: Oncological outcomes and prognostic factors.

Background/Objectives: Cervical squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary (SCCUP) is a rare entity within head and neck cancer and both treatment regimens as well as identified potential predictors for oncological outcomes vary between published series. In this study, we evaluated oncological outcomes and identified potential prognostic factors for outcome. Patients and methods: This retrospective monocentric cohort study includes 82 SCCUP patients diagnosed and treated between January 2000 and June 2021. Overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival (DSS), disease-free survival (DFS) and locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) were evaluated. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the prognostic effect of patient and tumor characteristics on oncological outcomes. Results: Five year OS, DSS, DFS and LRFS were respectively 53.9%, 72.2%, 68.9% and 67.3%. The p16 status was evaluated in 55 patients with 40% being p16 positive. On univariable analysis, p16 negative SCCUPs had significantly worse survival and recurrence rates in the presence of clinical extranodal extension (cENE) (OS: p=0.0013, DSS: p=0.0099, DFS: p=0.0164, LRFS: p=0.0099) and radiological extranodal extension (rENE) (OS: p=0.0034, DSS: p=0.0137, DFS: p=0.0167, LRFS: p=0.0100). In p16 positive SCCUP patients, rENE had a significantly negative prognostic effect on DFS (p=0.0345) and LRFS (p=0.0367). Total group multivariate analysis identified rENE as an independent negative predictor for all oncological outcomes. The "number of positive lymph nodes" was a second independent predictor for DSS (p=0.0257) and DFS (p=0.0435). Conclusions: We report favorable oncological outcomes, comparable to previously published results. Although the presence of rENE seems associated with poor oncological outcomes, the differential effect of clinical, radiological and pathological ENE in both p16 positive and negative subgroups remain to be elucidated by further prospective research.