Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk.

Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%-24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%-0.2% annual probability). We simulated various "what-if" scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.

Landscape-scale hydrologic response of plant invasion relative to native vegetation in urban forests.

Large-scale invasion modifies watershed hydrology by changing surface runoff and lowering the seasonal availability of water to native plants. Due to costly field-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements, which are highly localized and occasionally subject to instrument failure, landscape-scale water use assessments of invasive plants are infrequent. Therefore, the extent to which plant invaders alter water allocation between native and non-native vegetation in a given landscape is rarely assessed. We used a remote sensing-based ET modeling approach to measure the hydrologic response of an invasive shrub, Ligustrum sinense, across forests of the Charlotte Metropolitan Area, North Carolina. We hypothesized that this invader's widespread occurrence and dominant plant physiology significantly competes with native forests for water resources. We tested this hypothesis by comparing inter- and intra-annual variations in ET from invaded and uninvaded sites estimated using the surface-energy-balance system (SEBS) model and cloud-free Landsat images for the wettest (2003), driest (2007), and normal (2005 and 2011) water years. Our findings suggest that the water demand of L. sinense is higher than native forests (deciduous and evergreen) for most of the year except during the early spring and after high precipitation events. The daily ET flux of L. sinense was significantly different than evergreen vegetation during the driest year (2007) that, five years later (2011 - normal water year), was significantly different than both deciduous and evergreen vegetation types. This suggests that L. sinense consumes more water than native forest types, particularly during dry and normal precipitation years with increasing canopy cover over time making it a strong competitor with native vegetation for water resources in urban forests. Therefore, accounting for the hydrologic response of invasive plants and potential water savings from their removal from forests, particularly in water-scarce regions, may enable land managers and decision-makers to prioritize areas for monitoring and control efforts.

Sensory pollutants alter bird phenology and fitness across a continent.

Expansion of anthropogenic noise and night lighting across our planet1,2 is of increasing conservation concern3-6. Despite growing knowledge of physiological and behavioural responses to these stimuli from single-species and local-scale studies, whether these pollutants affect fitness is less clear, as is how and why species vary in their sensitivity to these anthropic stressors. Here we leverage a large citizen science dataset paired with high-resolution noise and light data from across the contiguous United States to assess how these stimuli affect reproductive success in 142 bird species. We find responses to both sensory pollutants linked to the functional traits and habitat affiliations of species. For example, overall nest success was negatively correlated with noise among birds in closed environments. Species-specific changes in reproductive timing and hatching success in response to noise exposure were explained by vocalization frequency, nesting location and diet. Additionally, increased light-gathering ability of species' eyes was associated with stronger advancements in reproductive timing in response to light exposure, potentially creating phenological mismatches7. Unexpectedly, better light-gathering ability was linked to reduced clutch failure and increased overall nest success in response to light exposure, raising important questions about how responses to sensory pollutants counteract or exacerbate responses to other aspects of global change, such as climate warming. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic noise and light can substantially affect breeding bird phenology and fitness, and underscore the need to consider sensory pollutants alongside traditional dimensions of the environment that typically inform biodiversity conservation.