Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: a scoping review and future directions.

BACKGROUND: Travel-related strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 evolved rapidly in response to changes in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and newly available tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Modeling is an important methodology to investigate the range of outcomes that could occur from different disease containment strategies. METHODS: We examined 43 articles published from December 2019 through September 2022 that used modeling to evaluate travel-related COVID-19 containment strategies. We extracted and synthesized data regarding study objectives, methods, outcomes, populations, settings, strategies, and costs. We used a standardized approach to evaluate each analysis according to 26 criteria for modeling quality and rigor. RESULTS: The most frequent approaches included compartmental modeling to examine quarantine, isolation, or testing. Early in the pandemic, the goal was to prevent travel-related COVID-19 cases with a focus on individual-level outcomes and assessing strategies such as travel restrictions, quarantine without testing, social distancing, and on-arrival PCR testing. After the development of diagnostic tests and vaccines, modeling studies projected population-level outcomes and investigated these tools to limit COVID-19 spread. Very few published studies included rapid antigen screening strategies, costs, explicit model calibration, or critical evaluation of the modeling approaches. CONCLUSION: Future modeling analyses should leverage open-source data, improve the transparency of modeling methods, incorporate newly available prevention, diagnostics, and treatments, and include costs and cost-effectiveness so that modeling analyses can be informative to address future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and other emerging infectious diseases (e.g., mpox and Ebola) for travel-related health policies.

High-risk US International Travelers Seeking Pretravel Consultation During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: To assess the implications of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related travel disruptions, we compared demographics and travel-related circumstances of US travelers seeking pretravel consultation regarding international travel at US Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) sites before and after the initiation of COVID-19 travel warnings. Methods: We analyzed data in the GTEN database regarding traveler demographics and travel-related circumstances with standard questionnaires in the pre-COVID-19 period (January-December 2019) and the COVID-19 period (April 2020-March 2021), excluding travelers from January to March 2020. We conducted descriptive analyses of differences in demographics, travel-related circumstances, routine and travel-related vaccinations, and medications. Results: Compared with 16 903 consultations in the pre-COVID-19 period, only 1564 consultations were recorded at GTEN sites during the COVID-19 period (90% reduction), with a greater proportion of travelers visiting friends and relatives (501/1564 [32%] vs 1525/16 903 [9%]), individuals traveling for >28 days (824/1564 [53%] vs 2522/16 903 [15%]), young children (6 mo-<6 y: 168/1564 [11%] vs 500/16 903 [3%]), and individuals traveling to Africa (1084/1564 [69%] vs 8049/16 903 [48%]). A smaller percentage of vaccine-eligible travelers received vaccines at pretravel consultations during the COVID-19 period than before, except for yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis vaccinations. Conclusions: Compared with the pre-COVID-19 period, a greater proportion of travelers during the COVID-19 period were young children, were planning to visit friends and relatives, were traveling for >28 days, or were traveling to Africa, which are circumstances that contribute to high risk for travel-related infections. Fewer vaccine-eligible travelers were administered travel-related vaccines at pretravel consultations. Counseling and vaccination focused on high-risk international travelers must be prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population-based surveillance of medical tourism among US residents from 11 states and territories: Findings from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

OBJECTIVE: To describe medical tourism among a subset of US residents; identify possible indicators for medical tourism. METHODS: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with 11 states and territories to ask 6 questions about medical tourism, using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Data collected from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2016, included whether respondents traveled internationally for preplanned care, travel reasons and destinations, procedures received, and occurrence and treatment of complications. A descriptive analysis of demographics, socioeconomic status and health access variables was performed, and a regression model with a log-link function and Poisson distribution was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) for medical tourism. RESULTS: Of 93,492 respondents, 517 (0.55%) traveled internationally during the previous year for care. Mexico was the most common destination (41% of trips). Dentistry accounted for 55% of treatments. Complications from care received abroad were reported by 5% of medical tourists; 67% sought care upon returning to the United States. The prevalence of medical tourism was 1.32% (95% CI, 1.00-1.64). The prevalence of medical tourism was higher in Hispanics and non-whites (PR, 3.97; 95% CI, 2.48-6.32) and higher among those without current health insurance (PR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.69-4.34). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest collection of population-based surveillance data describing medical tourism among US residents from multiple states and territories. Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with medical tourism can inform evidence-based recommendations for travelers and clinicians who may advise or care for these individuals before, during, or after travel.

Putting Guidance into Practice: Interpretation of the Oral Cholera Vaccine Recommendations for U.S. Travelers.

The American Committee on Immunization Practices recommends the use of the oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in international travelers aged 18-64 years who visit areas of active cholera transmission. CDC Travelers' Health Branch currently tracks areas of active cholera transmission and posts this information on their country-specific destination web pages at https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/list. Lessons learned from a webinar conducted among health care providers have led to improvements in how CDC shares information on the OCV. Here, we summarize the major considerations for providers offering the OCV to U.S. travelers and indicate where they can find more information.

Spread of Measles in Europe and Implications for US Travelers.

From January 2018 to June 2018, World Health Organization (WHO) European Region countries reported >41 000 measles cases, including 37 deaths, a record high since the 1990s. Low vaccination coverage in previous years is the biggest contributing factor to the increase in cases. The Ukraine reported the majority of cases, but France, Georgia, Greece, Italy, the Russian Federation, and Serbia also reported high case counts. Europe is the most common travel destination worldwide and is widely perceived as being without substantial infectious disease risks. For this reason, travelers may not consider the relevance of a pretravel health consultation, including vaccination, in their predeparture plans. Measles is highly contagious, and the record number of measles cases in the WHO European Region not only puts unvaccinated and inadequately vaccinated travelers at risk but also increases the risk for nontraveling US residents who come into close contact with returned travelers who are ill. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention encourage US travelers to be aware of measles virus transmission in Europe and receive all recommended vaccinations, including for measles, before traveling abroad. Health care providers must maintain a high degree of suspicion for measles among travelers returning from Europe or people with close contact with international travelers who present with a febrile rash illness. The current WHO European Region outbreak should serve to remind health care providers to stay current with the epidemiology of highly transmissible diseases, such as measles, through media, WHO, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports and encourage measles vaccination for international travelers.

Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Salmonella Typhi Infections Among Travelers to or from Pakistan - United States, 2016-2018.

In February 2018, a typhoid fever outbreak caused by Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (Typhi), resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, fluoroquinolones, and third-generation cephalosporins, was reported in Pakistan. During November 2016-September 2017, 339 cases of this extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Typhi strain were reported in Pakistan, mostly in Karachi and Hyderabad; one travel-associated case was also reported from the United Kingdom (1). More cases have been detected in Karachi and Hyderabad as surveillance efforts have been strengthened, with recent reports increasing the number of cases to 5,372 (2). In the United States, in response to the reports from Pakistan, enhanced surveillance identified 29 patients with typhoid fever who had traveled to or from Pakistan during 2016-2018, including five with XDR Typhi. Travelers to areas with endemic disease, such as South Asia, should be vaccinated against typhoid fever before traveling and follow safe food and water practices. Clinicians should be aware that most typhoid fever infections in the United States are fluoroquinolone nonsusceptible and that the XDR Typhi outbreak strain associated with travel to Pakistan is only susceptible to azithromycin and carbapenems.

Update: Interim Guidance for Preconception Counseling and Prevention of Sexual Transmission of Zika Virus for Men with Possible Zika Virus Exposure - United States, August 2018.

Zika virus infection can occur as a result of mosquitoborne or sexual transmission of the virus. Infection during pregnancy is a cause of fetal brain abnormalities and other serious birth defects (1,2). CDC has updated the interim guidance for men with possible Zika virus exposure who 1) are planning to conceive with their partner, or 2) want to prevent sexual transmission of Zika virus at any time (3). CDC now recommends that men with possible Zika virus exposure who are planning to conceive with their partner wait for at least 3 months after symptom onset (if symptomatic) or their last possible Zika virus exposure (if asymptomatic) before engaging in unprotected sex. CDC now also recommends that for couples who are not trying to conceive, men can consider using condoms or abstaining from sex for at least 3 months after symptom onset (if symptomatic) or their last possible Zika virus exposure (if asymptomatic) to minimize their risk for sexual transmission of Zika virus. All other guidance for Zika virus remains unchanged. The definition of possible Zika virus exposure remains unchanged and includes travel to or residence in an area with risk for Zika virus transmission (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/world-map-areas-with-zika) or sex without a condom with a partner who traveled to or lives in an area with risk for Zika virus transmission. CDC will continue to update recommendations as new information becomes available.

Travel Characteristics and Pretravel Health Care Among Pregnant or Breastfeeding U.S. Women Preparing for International Travel.

OBJECTIVE: To study characteristics and preventive interventions of adult pregnant and breastfeeding travelers seeking pretravel health care in the United States. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed data (2009-2014) of pregnant and breastfeeding travelers seen at U.S. travel clinics participating in Global TravEpiNet. Nonpregnant, nonbreastfeeding adult female travelers of childbearing age were used for comparison. We evaluated the prescription of malaria chemoprophylaxis and antibiotics for this population as well as the administration of three travel-related vaccines: hepatitis A, typhoid, and yellow fever. We also evaluated use of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis and influenza vaccines, because these are widely recommended in pregnancy. RESULTS: Of 21,138 female travelers of childbearing age in Global TravEpiNet, 170 (0.8%) were pregnant and 139 (0.7%) were breastfeeding. Many traveled to destinations endemic for mosquito-borne illnesses, including malaria (pregnant: 95%; breastfeeding: 94%), dengue (pregnant: 87%; breastfeeding: 81%), or yellow fever (pregnant: 35%; breastfeeding: 50%). Compared with nonpregnant, nonbreastfeeding adult female travelers, eligible pregnant travelers were less likely to be vaccinated against hepatitis A (28% compared with 51%, P<.001) and typhoid (35% compared with 74%, P<.001). More than 20% of eligible pregnant travelers did not receive influenza vaccination. Yellow fever vaccine was occasionally provided to pregnant and breastfeeding travelers traveling to countries entirely endemic for yellow fever (6 [20%] of 30 pregnant travelers and 18 [46%] of 39 breastfeeding travelers). Half of pregnant travelers and two thirds of breastfeeding travelers preparing to travel to malaria-holoendemic countries received a prescription for malaria prophylaxis. CONCLUSION: Most pregnant and breastfeeding travelers seen for pretravel health consultations traveled to destinations with high risk for vector-borne or other travel-related diseases. Destination-specific preventive interventions were frequently underused.

Update: Interim Guidance for Health Care Providers Caring for Pregnant Women with Possible Zika Virus Exposure - United States (Including U.S. Territories), July 2017.

CDC has updated the interim guidance for U.S. health care providers caring for pregnant women with possible Zika virus exposure in response to 1) declining prevalence of Zika virus disease in the World Health Organization's Region of the Americas (Americas) and 2) emerging evidence indicating prolonged detection of Zika virus immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies. Zika virus cases were first reported in the Americas during 2015-2016; however, the incidence of Zika virus disease has since declined. As the prevalence of Zika virus disease declines, the likelihood of false-positive test results increases. In addition, emerging epidemiologic and laboratory data indicate that, as is the case with other flaviviruses, Zika virus IgM antibodies can persist beyond 12 weeks after infection. Therefore, IgM test results cannot always reliably distinguish between an infection that occurred during the current pregnancy and one that occurred before the current pregnancy, particularly for women with possible Zika virus exposure before the current pregnancy. These limitations should be considered when counseling pregnant women about the risks and benefits of testing for Zika virus infection during pregnancy. This updated guidance emphasizes a shared decision-making model for testing and screening pregnant women, one in which patients and providers work together to make decisions about testing and care plans based on patient preferences and values, clinical judgment, and a balanced assessment of risks and expected outcomes.

Refusal of recommended travel-related vaccines among U.S. international travellers in Global TravEpiNet.

BACKGROUND: International travellers are at risk of travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases. More data are needed on the proportion of travellers who refuse vaccines during a pre-travel health consultation and their reasons for refusing vaccines. METHODS: We analyzed data on travellers seen for a pre-travel health consultation from July 2012 through June 2014 in the Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) consortium. Providers were required to indicate one of three reasons for a traveller refusing a recommended vaccine: (1) cost concerns, (2) safety concerns or (3) not concerned with the illness. We calculated refusal rates among travellers eligible for each vaccine based on CDC recommendations current at the time of travel. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine the effect of individual variables on the likelihood of accepting all recommended vaccines. RESULTS: Of 24 478 travellers, 23 768 (97%) were eligible for at least one vaccine. Travellers were most frequently eligible for typhoid (N = 20 092), hepatitis A (N = 12 990) and influenza vaccines (N = 10 539). Of 23 768 eligible travellers, 6573 (25%) refused one or more recommended vaccine(s). Of those eligible, more than one-third refused the following vaccines: meningococcal: 2232 (44%) of 5029; rabies: 1155 (44%) of 2650; Japanese encephalitis: 761 (41%) of 1846; and influenza: 3527 (33%) of 10 539. The most common reason for declining vaccines was that the traveller was not concerned about the illness. In multivariable analysis, travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) in low or medium human development countries were less likely to accept all recommended vaccines, compared with non-VFR travellers (OR = 0.74 (0.59-0.95)). CONCLUSIONS: Travellers who sought pre-travel health care refused recommended vaccines at varying rates. A lack of concern about the associated illness was the most commonly cited reason for all refused vaccines. Our data suggest more effective education about disease risk is needed for international travellers, even those who seek pre-travel advice.

Reduction of racial/ethnic disparities in vaccination coverage, 1995-2011.

The Presidential Childhood Immunization Initiative was developed in 1993 to address major gaps in childhood vaccination coverage in the United States. Eliminating the cost of vaccines as a barrier to vaccination was one strategy of the Childhood Immunization Initiative; it led to Congressional legislation that authorized creation of the Vaccines for Children program (VFC) in 1994. CDC analyzed National Immunization Survey data for 1995-2011 to evaluate trends in disparities in vaccination coverage rates between non-Hispanic white children and children of other racial/ethnic groups. VFC has been effective in ireducing disparities in vaccination coverage among U.S. children. CDC's Office of Minority Health and Health Equity selected the intervention analysis and discussion that follows to provide an example of a program that has been effective in reducing childhood vaccination coverage-related disparities in the United States. At its inception in 1994, VFC was implemented in 78 Immunization Action Plan areas that covered the entire United States; within each area, concerted efforts were made to improve childhood vaccination coverage. The findings in this report demonstrate that there have been no racial/ethnic disparities in vaccine coverage for measles-mumps-rubella and poliovirus in the United States since 2005. Disparities in coverage for the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis/diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine were absent, declining, or inconsistent during this period, depending on the racial/ethnic group examined. The results in this report highlight the effectiveness of VFC.