Reemergence of a Big Brown Bat Lyssavirus rabies Variant in Striped Skunks in Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, 2021-2023.

Background: Throughout the Americas, Lyssavirus rabies (RV) perpetuates as multiple variants among bat and mesocarnivore species. Interspecific RV spillover occurs on occasion, but clusters and viral host shifts are rare. The spillover and host shift of a big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) RV variant Ef-W1 into mesocarnivores was reported previously on several occasions during 2001-2009 in Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, and controlled through rabies vaccination of target wildlife. During autumn 2021, a new cluster of Ef-W1 RV cases infecting striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) was detected from United States Department of Agriculture enhanced rabies surveillance in Flagstaff. The number of Ef-W1 RV spillover cases within a short timeframe suggested the potential for transmission between skunks and an emerging host shift. Materials and Methods: Whole and partial RV genomic sequencing was performed to evaluate the phylogenetic relationships of the 2021-2023 Ef-W1 cases infecting striped skunks with earlier outbreaks. Additionally, real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (rtRT-PCR) was used to opportunistically compare viral RNA loads in brain and salivary gland tissues of naturally infected skunks. Results: Genomic RV sequencing revealed that the origin of the 2021-2023 epizootic of Ef-W1 RV was distinct from the multiple outbreaks detected from 2001-2009. Naturally infected skunks with the Ef-W1 RV showed greater viral RNA loads in the brain, but equivalent viral RNA loads in the mandibular salivary glands, compared to an opportunistic sample of skunks naturally infected with a South-Central skunk RV from northern Colorado, USA. Conclusion: Considering a high risk for onward transmission and spread of the Ef-W1 RV in Flagstaff, public outreach, enhanced rabies surveillance, and control efforts, focused on education, sample characterization, and vaccination, have been ongoing since 2021 to mitigate and prevent the spread and establishment of Ef-W1 RV in mesocarnivores.

From chest pain to coronary functional testing: Clinical and economic impact of coronary microvascular dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Coronary functional testing to formally diagnose coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) reduces cardiovascular events and alleviates angina. This study aims to investigate the extensive and complex journey that patients with CMD undergo, from the onset of chest pain to eventual diagnosis. METHODS: Data from the Coronary Microvascular Disease Registry (CMDR) were analyzed, including information on the date of first documentation of chest pain, number of non-invasive and invasive tests the patient underwent, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations. In addition, we estimated the total cost per patient. A total of 61 patients with CMD diagnosis were included in this analysis. RESULTS: Most patients in our cohort were older than 50 years of age. The median time from initial chest pain symptoms to diagnosis was 0.62 (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.06-2.96) years. During this period, patients visited the emergency department a median of 1.0 (IQR: 0.0-2.0) times. Diagnostic tests included 3.0 (IQR: 2.0-6.0) electrocardiograms, 3.0 (IQR: 0.0-6.0) high-sensitivity troponin tests, and 1.0 (IQR: 1.0-2.0) echocardiograms. Prior to diagnosis of CMD, 13 (21.3 %) patients had left heart catheterization without coronary functional testing. Non-invasive testing for ischemia was conducted in 43 (70.5 %) patients. Alternative non-cardiac diagnoses were given to 11 (18.0 %) patients during the diagnostic process, with referrals made to gastroenterology for 16 (26.2 %) and pulmonology for 10 (16.4 %) patients. The cost was almost $2000/patient. CONCLUSION: Timely identification of CMD offers promising opportunities for prompt symptom alleviation, accompanied by reduced visits to the emergency department, cardiovascular testing, invasive medical procedures, and consequently reduced healthcare expenses.

Coronary microvascular dysfunction assessment: A comparative analysis of procedural aspects.

BACKGROUND: Full adoption of coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) assessment faces challenges due to its invasive nature and concerns about prolonged procedure time and increased contrast and/or radiation exposure. We compared procedural aspects of CMD invasive assessment to diagnostic left heart catheterization (DLHC) in patients with chest pain who were not found to have obstructive coronary artery disease. METHODS: A total of 227 patients in the Coronary Microvascular Disease Registry were compared to 1592 patients who underwent DLHC from August 2021 to November 2023. The two cohorts were compared using propensity-score matching; primary outcomes were fluoroscopy time and total contrast use. RESULTS: The participants' mean age was 64.1 ± 12.6 years. CMD-assessed patients were more likely to be female (66.5% vs. 45.2%, p < 0.001) and have hypertension (80.2% vs. 44.5%, p < 0.001), history of stroke (11.9% vs. 6.3%, p = 0.002), and history of myocardial infarction (20.3% vs. 7.7%, p < 0.001). CMD assessment was safe, without any reported adverse outcomes. A propensity-matched analysis showed that patients who underwent CMD assessment had slightly higher median contrast exposure (50 vs. 40 mL, p < 0.001), and slightly longer fluoroscopy time (6.9 vs. 4.7 min, p < 0.001). However, there was no difference in radiation dose (209.3 vs. 219 mGy, p = 0.58) and overall procedure time (31 vs. 29 min, p = 0.37). CONCLUSION: Compared to DLHC, CMD assessment is safe and requires only slightly additional contrast use (10 mL) and slightly longer fluoroscopy time (2 min) without clinical implications. These findings emphasize the favorable safety and feasibility of invasive CMD assessment.

Dogs on the move: Estimating the risk of rabies in imported dogs in the United States, 2015-2022.

BACKGROUND: Dog-mediated rabies virus variant (DMRVV), a zoonotic pathogen that causes a deadly disease in animals and humans, is present in more than 100 countries worldwide but has been eliminated from the United States since 2007. In the United States, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded four instances of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries since 2015. However, it remains uncertain whether the incidence of DMRVV among imported dogs from these countries significantly surpasses that of domestically acquired variants among domestic U.S. dogs. AIM: This evaluation aimed to estimate the number of dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries and compare the risk of rabies between imported dogs and the U.S. domestic dog population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the CDC's dog import permit system (implemented during 2021 under a temporary suspension of dog importation from DMRVV-enzootic countries) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Automated Commercial Environment system, each of which records a segment of dogs entering the U.S. from DMRVV-enzootic countries, was analysed. Additionally, we estimated the incidence rate of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries and compared it to the incidence rate within the general U.S. dog population, due to domestically acquired rabies variants, over the eight-year period (2015-2022). RESULTS: An estimated 72,589 (range, 62,660-86,258) dogs were imported into the United States annually between 2015 and 2022 from DMRVV-enzootic countries. The estimated incidence rate of rabies was 16 times higher (range, 13.2-19.4) in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries than that estimated for domestically acquired rabies in the general U.S. dog population. CONCLUSIONS: Preventing human exposure to dogs with DMRVV is a public health priority. The higher risk of rabies in dogs imported from DMRVV-enzootic countries supports the need for importation requirements aimed at preventing the reintroduction of DMRVV into the United States.

Evaluation of contingency actions to control the spread of raccoon rabies in Ohio and Virginia.

The raccoon (Procyon lotor) variant of the rabies virus (RRV) is enzootic in the eastern United States and oral rabies vaccination (ORV) is the primary strategy to prevent and control landscape spread. Breaches of ORV management zones occasionally occur, and emergency "contingency" actions may be implemented to enhance local control. Contingency actions are an integral part of landscape-scale wildlife rabies management but can be very costly and routinely involve enhanced rabies surveillance (ERS) around the index case. We investigated two contingency actions in Ohio (2017-2019 and 2018-2021) and one in Virginia (2017-2019) using a dynamic, multi-method occupancy approach to examine relationships between specific management actions and RRV occurrence, including whether ERS was sufficient around the index case. The RRV occupancy was assessed seasonally at 100-km2 grids and we examined relationships across three spatial scales (regional management zone, RRV free regions, and local contingency areas). The location of a grid relative to the ORV management zone was the strongest predictor of RRV occupancy at the regional scale. In RRV free regions, the neighbor effect and temporal variability were most important in influencing RRV occupancy. Parenteral (hand) vaccination of raccoons was important across all three contingency action areas, but more influential in the Ohio contingency action areas where more raccoons were hand vaccinated. In the Virginia contingency action area, ORV strategies were as important in reducing RRV occupancy as a hand vaccination strategy. The management action to trap, euthanize, and test (TET) raccoons was an important method to increase ERS, yet the impacts of TET on RRV occupancy are not clear. The probability of detecting additional cases of RRV was exceptionally high (>0.95) during the season the index case occurred. The probability of detecting RRV through ERS declined in the seasons following initial TET efforts but remained higher after the contingency action compared to the ERS detection probabilities prior to index case incidence. Local RRV cases were contained within one year and eliminated within 2-3 years of each contingency action.

Micropulse cyclophotocoagulation compared to continuous wave cyclophotocoagulation for the management of refractory pediatric glaucoma.

INTRODUCTION: Micropulse cyclophotocoagulation (MPCPC) has been shown in adults to offer a favorable post-operative safety profile compared to continuous wave transscleral cyclophotocoagulation (CWCPC) in the management of glaucoma. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the long term efficacy, safety, and effectiveness of MPCPC in the management of pediatric glaucoma when compared to CWCPC. METHODS: IRB approved retrospective chart review of patients with pediatric glaucoma that underwent MPCPC and CWCPC at 2 separate institutions. Success was defined as intraocular pressure (IOP) between 5 and 21mmHg on any number of topical glaucoma medication without requiring additional surgical intervention or oral IOP lowering medication. RESULTS: Of the 48 patients in the study, 22 (26 eyes) underwent MPCPC and 26 (30 eyes) underwent CWCPC. At 1 year, 7 out of 26 eyes (26.9%) achieved success in the MPCPC group compared to 13 out of 30 eyes (43.3%) in the CWCPC group. Survival analysis unveiled a statistically significant difference in success between the two groups (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: In pediatric glaucoma patients undergoing cyclophotocoagulation procedures, CWCPC outperformed MPCPC using default settings in terms of achieving long-term IOP control. Additional studies are required to evaluated augmented MPCPC settings in pediatric glaucoma patients.

Rabies post-exposure prophylaxis delivery to ensure treatment efficacy and increase compliance.

Objectives: Since rabies is lethal once symptoms appear, its prevention including community awareness, mass dog vaccination and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is crucial. Although safe and potent rabies vaccines have long been available, the global rabies burden is still high and access to adequately-delivered PEP remains challenging. Here we offer healthcare providers up-to-date, simple, exhaustive, visual guidance on how to perform PEP steps correctly. Protocol: PEP consists of 1) washing the wound with water and soap for 15 min, 2) assessing the need for rabies biologicals based on specific criteria; 3) administering, if required, rabies immunoglobulin or monoclonal antibodies deep in and around all wounds; 4) starting, if necessary, the WHO-recommended intradermal 1-week vaccination regimen; 5) informing patients adequately throughout the PEP process to increase compliance and avoid dangerous misconceptions about animal bite treatment and rabies risk. Discussion: The intradermal 1-week vaccination regimen recommended by WHO is as safe as other regimens but carries important cost-, dose- and time-sparing benefits. As fundamental as the correct administration of rabies biologicals is clear doctor-patient communication and sharing of up-to-date knowledge among healthcare professionals. Conclusions: This resource will help ensuring that no life is lost to rabies, an incurable yet preventable disease.

Measuring the impact of an integrated bite case management program on the detection of canine rabies cases in Vietnam.

Introduction: Dog-mediated rabies is enzootic in Vietnam, resulting in at least 70 reported human deaths and 500,000 human rabies exposures annually. In 2016, an integrated bite cases management (IBCM) based surveillance program was developed to improve knowledge of the dog-mediated rabies burden in Phu Tho Province of Vietnam. Methods: The Vietnam Animal Rabies Surveillance Program (VARSP) was established in four stages: (1) Laboratory development, (2) Training of community One Health workers, (3) Paper-based-reporting (VARSP 1.0), and (4) Electronic case reporting (VARSP 2.0). Investigation and diagnostic data collected from March 2016 to December 2019 were compared with historical records of animal rabies cases dating back to January 2012. A risk analysis was conducted to evaluate the probability of a rabies exposure resulting in death after a dog bite, based on data collected over the course of an IBCM investigation. Results: Prior to the implementation of VARSP, between 2012 and 2015, there was an average of one rabies investigation per year, resulting in two confirmed and two probable animal rabies cases. During the 46 months that VARSP was operational (2016 - 2019), 1048 animal investigations were conducted, which identified 79 (8%) laboratory-confirmed rabies cases and 233 (22%) clinically-confirmed(probable) cases. VARSP produced a 78-fold increase in annual animal rabies case detection (one cases detected per year pre-VARSP vs 78 cases per year under VARSP). The risk of succumbing to rabies for bite victims of apparently healthy dogs available for home quarantine, was three deaths for every 10,000 untreated exposures. Discussion: A pilot IBCM model used in Phu Tho Province showed promising results for improving rabies surveillance, with a 26-fold increase in annual case detection after implementation of a One Health model. The risk for a person bitten by an apparently healthy dog to develop rabies in the absence of rabies PEP was very low, which supports the WHO recommendations to delay PEP for this category of bite victims, when trained animal assessors are available and routinely communicate with the medical sector. Recent adoption of an electronic IBCM system is likely to expedite adoption of VARSP 2.0 to other Provinces and improve accuracy of field decisions and data collection.

RABIES IN RODENTS AND LAGOMORPHS IN THE USA, 2011-20.

Rabies is an acute progressive encephalitis caused by infection with rabies viruses, with reservoirs among bats and mesocarnivores, but all mammals are susceptible. Despite its distribution and abundance, cases of rabies are much less common in rodents and lagomorphs. Familiarity with current rabies prevalence data is important for informed decisions on human postexposure prophylaxis after rodent and lagomorph bites. This study is an update of rabies cases reported in rodents and lagomorphs in the US from 2011 to 2020. Rabies reports were collected passively from laboratory testing agencies in the US and Puerto Rico from 2011 to 2020. Descriptive analysis was conducted to determine the percent positivity of rabies cases by species. A total of 401 cases of rabies in rodents and lagomorphs were reported from 2011 to 2020. Most reported cases were in groundhogs (Marmota monax), representing >90% of cases, and the trend closely aligned with rabies in raccoons (Procyon lotor). In any given year, the percent positivity of rabies in rodents and lagomorphs was <2.5%, and the trend of percent positivity from 2011 to 2020 was stable. Groundhog and North American beaver (Castor canadensis) percent positivity was significantly higher than the rest of the rodents and lagomorphs. Most rabies cases occurred during the months of May-September. Documented cases of rabies in rodents and lagomorphs are generally rare, but with variation between species. Groundhogs and North American beavers had rabies percent positivity similar to high-risk species, such as bats and raccoons, and constituted 97% of all rodent and lagomorph positive cases. Since 1993, the trend in rabies cases in groundhogs has significantly declined. These results can be used to help inform public health officials on rodent and lagomorph prevention and control efforts, as well as rabies postexposure prophylaxis.

Risk of Rabies and Implications for Postexposure Prophylaxis Administration in the US.

Importance: In the US, rabies postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) is often administered without a comprehensive and regionally appropriate rabies risk assessment. For low-risk exposures, this can result in patients incurring out-of-pocket expenses or experiencing adverse effects of PEP unnecessarily. Objective: To use a model to estimate (1) the probability that an animal would test positive for rabies virus (RABV) given that a person was exposed, and (2) the probability that a person would die from rabies given that they were exposed to a suspect rabid animal and did not receive PEP, and to propose a risk threshold for recommending PEP according to model estimates and a survey. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical modeling study, positivity rates were calculated using more than 900 000 animal samples tested for RABV between 2011 and 2020. Other parameters were estimated from a subset of the surveillance data and the literature. Probabilities were estimated using Bayes' rule. A survey was administered among a convenience sample of state public health officials in all US states (excluding Hawaii) plus Washington, DC and Puerto Rico to determine a risk threshold for PEP recommendation. Respondents were asked whether they would recommend PEP given 24 standardized exposure scenarios while accounting for local rabies epidemiology. Main Outcomes and Measures: A quantitative and regionally appropriate approach for helping health care practitioners and public health professionals determine whether to recommend and/or administer rabies PEP. Results: A total of 1728 unique observations were obtained from the model for the probability that an animal would test positive for RABV given that a person was exposed, and 41 472 for ) the probability that a person would die from rabies given that they were exposed to a suspect rabid animal and did not receive PEP. The median probability that an animal would test positive for RABV given that a person was exposed ranged from 3 × 10-7 to 0.97, while the probability that a person would die from rabies given that they were exposed to a suspect rabid animal and did not receive PEP ranged from 1 × 10-10 to 0.55. Fifty public health officials out of a target sample size of 102 responded to the survey. Using logistic regression, a risk threshold was estimated for PEP recommendation of 0.0004; PEP may not be recommended for exposures with probabilities below this threshold. Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of rabies in the US, the risk of death|exposure was quantified and a risk threshold was estimated. These results could be used to inform the decision-making process as to the appropriateness of recommending rabies PEP.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Integrated Bite Case Management and Sustained Dog Vaccination for Rabies Control.

The successful prevention, control, and elimination of dog-mediated rabies is challenging due to insufficient resource availability and inadequate placement. An integrated dog bite case management (IBCM) system plus dog vaccination can help address these challenges. Based on data from the IBCM system in Haiti, we conducted a cost-effectiveness evaluation of a newly established IBCM system plus sustained vaccination and compared it with 1) a no bite-case management (NBCM) and 2) a non-risk-based (NRB) program, where bite victims presenting at a health clinic would receive post-exposure prophylaxis regardless of risk assessment. We also provide cost-effectiveness guidance for an ongoing IBCM system and for sub-optimal dog vaccination coverages, considering that not all cost-effective interventions are affordable. Cost-effectiveness outcomes included average cost per human death averted (USD/death averted) and per life-year gained (LYG). The analysis used a governmental perspective. Considering a sustained 5-year implementation with 70% dog vaccination coverage, IBCM had a lower average cost per death averted (IBCM: $7,528, NBCM: $7,797, NRB: $15,244) and cost per LYG (IBCM: $152, NBCM: $158, NRB: $308) than NBCM and NRB programs. As sensitivity analysis, we estimated cost-effectiveness for alternative scenarios with lower dog-vaccination coverages (30%, 55%) and lower implementation costs. Our results suggest that better health and cost-effectiveness outcomes are achieved with the continued implementation of an IBCM program ($118 per life-year saved) compared with a newly established IBCM program ($152 per life-year saved). Our results suggest that IBCM is more cost-effective than non-integrated programs to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies.

Evaluation of country infrastructure as an indirect measure of dog-mediated human rabies deaths.

Background: Rabies is a neglected disease, primarily due to poor detection stemming from limited surveillance and diagnostic capabilities in most countries. As a result, there is limited ability to monitor and evaluate country, regional, and global progress towards the WHO goal of eliminating human rabies deaths by 2030. There is a need for a low-cost, readily reproducible method of estimating rabies burden and elimination capacity in endemic countries. Methods: Publicly available economic, environmental, political, social, public health, and One Health indicators were evaluated to identify variables with strong correlation to country-level rabies burden estimates. A novel index was developed to estimate infrastructural rabies elimination capacity and annual case-burden for dog-mediated rabies virus variant (DMRVV) endemic countries. Findings: Five country-level indicators with superior explanatory value represent the novel "STOP-R index:" (1) literacy rate, (2) infant mortality rate, (3) electricity access, (4) political stability, and (5) presence/severity of natural hazards. Based on the STOP-R index, 40,111 (95% CI 25,854-74,344) global human rabies deaths are estimated to occur in 2022 among DMRVV-endemic countries and are projected to decrease to 32,349 (95% CI 21,110-57,019) in 2030. Interpretation: The STOP-R index offers a unique means of addressing the data gap and monitoring progress towards eliminating dog-mediated human rabies deaths. Results presented here suggest that factors external to rabies programs influence the successes of rabies elimination, and it is now possible to identify countries exceeding or lagging in expected rabies control and elimination progress based on country infrastructure.

Corrigendum: Electronic application for rabies management improves surveillance, data quality, and investigator experience in Haiti.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1052349.].

Electronic application for rabies management improves surveillance, data quality, and investigator experience in Haiti.

Background: Integrated bite case management (IBCM) is a multi-sectoral response to animal-bites which reduces human and canine rabies mortality through animal quarantine, bite-victim counseling, and vaccination tracking. Haiti's national rabies surveillance program was established in 2013 using paper-based IBCM (pIBCM) with adoption of an electronic smartphone application (eIBCM) in 2018. Methods: We evaluated the feasibility of implementing the electronic app in Haiti and compared pIBCM and eIBCM data quality collected January 2013-August 2019. Deaths prevented, cost-per-death averted, and cost-per-investigation during use of pIBCM and eIBCM were estimated using a previously validated rabies cost-effectiveness tool that accounted for bite-victim demographics; probability of acquiring rabies; post-exposure prophylaxis; and costs including training, supplies, and salaries. We compared pIBCM and eIBCM based on data comprehensiveness, completeness, and reporting efficiency. Surveys were administered to IBCM staff to evaluate the usefulness, simplicity, flexibility, and acceptability of eIBCM. Results: Of 15,526 investigations, 79% were paper-based and 21% electronic. IBCM prevented 241 (estimated) human rabies deaths. Using pIBCM, cost-per-death averted was $2,692 and the cost-per-investigation was $21.02; up to 55 data variables were collected per investigation; data transmission took 26 days to reach national staff, and 180 days until analysis. Using eIBCM, the cost-per-death averted was $1,247 and the cost-per-investigation was $22.70; up to 174 data variables were collected per investigation; data transmission took 3 days to reach national staff, and 30 days until analysis. Among 12,194 pIBCM investigations, 55% were mappable by commune, compared to 100% of eIBCM investigations mappable by GPS. Animal case definitions were incorrectly ascribed by investigators in 5.5% of pIBCM investigations and zero for eIBCM; typically, errors were in determining probable vs. suspect case assignments. Overall, eIBCM was well-accepted by staff, who reported the app is easy-to-use, facilitates investigations, and compared to pIBCM hastens data reporting. Discussion: In Haiti, eIBCM showed improved data completeness, data quality, and shorter notification times with minimal increase in operational cost. The electronic app is simple-to-use and facilitates IBCM investigations. Rabies endemic countries could refer to eIBCM in Haiti as a cost-effective means to reduce human rabies mortality and improve surveillance capacity.

Defining County-Level Terrestrial Rabies Freedom Using the US National Rabies Surveillance System: Surveillance Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a deadly zoonotic disease with nearly 100% fatality rate. In the United States, rabies virus persists in wildlife reservoirs, with occasional spillover into humans and domestic animals. The distribution of reservoir hosts in US counties plays an important role in public health decision-making, including the recommendation of lifesaving postexposure prophylaxis upon suspected rabies exposures. Furthermore, in surveillance data, it is difficult to discern whether counties have no cases reported because rabies was not present or because counties have an unreported rabies presence. These epizootics are monitored by the National Rabies Surveillance System (NRSS), to which approximately 130 state public health, agriculture, and academic laboratories report animal rabies testing statistics. Historically, the NRSS classifies US counties as free from terrestrial rabies if, over the previous 5 years, they and any adjacent counties did not report any rabies cases and they tested ≥15 reservoir animals or 30 domestic animals. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe and evaluate the historical NRSS rabies-free county definition, review possibilities for improving this definition, and develop a model to achieve more precise estimates of the probability of terrestrial rabies freedom and the number of reported county-level terrestrial rabies cases. METHODS: Data submitted to the NRSS by state and territorial public health departments and the US Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services were analyzed to evaluate the historical rabies-free definition. A zero-inflated negative binomial model created county-level predictions of the probability of rabies freedom and the expected number of rabies cases reported. Data analyzed were from all animals submitted for laboratory diagnosis of rabies in the United States from 1995 to 2020 in skunk and raccoon reservoir territories, excluding bats and bat variants. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 14,642 and 30,120 county-years in the raccoon and skunk reservoir territories, respectively. Only 0.85% (9/1065) raccoon county-years and 0.79% (27/3411) skunk county-years that met the historical rabies-free criteria reported a case in the following year (99.2% negative predictive value for each), of which 2 were attributed to unreported bat variants. County-level model predictions displayed excellent discrimination for detecting zero cases and good estimates of reported cases in the following year. Counties classified as rabies free rarely (36/4476, 0.8%) detected cases in the following year. CONCLUSIONS: This study concludes that the historical rabies freedom definition is a reasonable approach for identifying counties that are truly free from terrestrial raccoon and skunk rabies virus transmission. Gradations of risk can be measured using the rabies prediction model presented in this study. However, even counties with a high probability of rabies freedom should maintain rabies testing capacity, as there are numerous examples of translocations of rabies-infected animals that can cause major changes in the epidemiology of rabies.

United Against Rabies Forum: The first 2 years.

Rabies continues to kill an estimated 59,000 people annually, with up to 99% of human cases transmitted by domestic dogs. The elimination of human deaths from dog-mediated rabies is achievable by applying a One Health approach, and the framework to do this is outlined in Zero by 30: the Global Strategic Plan to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. To build on this global goal, and implement the approaches set out in Zero by 30, the United Against Rabies Forum was launched in 2020. This paper gives a review of the objectives, governance, activities and achievements of the United Against Rabies Forum to date. It also outlines ongoing work, and next steps as the United Against Rabies Forum reviews its first 2 years of activities and identifies priority areas for the coming 12 months.