Cohort Profile: the European Unified Registries On Heart care Evaluation and Randomised Trials (EuroHeart) - Acute Coronary Syndrome and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

AIMS: The European Unified Registries On Heart care Evaluation And Randomized Trials (EuroHeart) aims to improve the quality of care and clinical outcomes for patients with cardiovascular disease. The collaboration of acute coronary syndrome/percutaneous coronary intervention (ACS/PCI) registries is operational in seven vanguard European Society of Cardiology member countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults admitted to hospitals with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) are included, and individual patient-level data collected and aligned according to the internationally agreed EuroHeart data standards for ACS/PCI. The registries provide up to 155 variables spanning patient demographics and clinical characteristics, in-hospital care, in-hospital outcomes, and discharge medications. After performing statistical analyses on patient data, participating countries transfer aggregated data to EuroHeart for international reporting.Between 1st January 2022 and 31st December 2022, 40 021 admissions (STEMI 46.7%, NSTEMI 53.3%) were recorded from 192 hospitals in the seven vanguard countries: Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, and Sweden. The mean age for the cohort was 67.9 (standard deviation 12.6) years, and it included 12 628 (31.6%) women. CONCLUSION: The EuroHeart collaboration of ACS/PCI registries prospectively collects and analyses individual data for ACS and PCI at a national level, after which aggregated results are transferred to the EuroHeart Data Science Centre. The collaboration will expand to other countries and provide continuous insights into the provision of clinical care and outcomes for patients with ACS and undergoing PCI. It will serve as a unique international platform for quality improvement, observational research, and registry-based clinical trials.

Repeated Measurement of the Novel Atrial Biomarker BMP10 (Bone Morphogenetic Protein 10) Refines Risk Stratification in Anticoagulated Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the ARISTOTLE Trial.

BACKGROUND: BMP10 (bone morphogenic protein 10) has emerged as a novel biomarker associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and other outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The study aimed to determine if repeated BMP10 measurements improve prognostication of cardiovascular events in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured using a prototype Elecsys immunoassay in plasma samples collected at randomization and after 2 months in patients with AF randomized to apixaban or warfarin in the ARISTOTLE (Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation) trial (n=2878). Adjusted Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between 2-month BMP10 levels and outcomes. BMP10 levels increased by 7.8% (P<0.001) over 2 months. The baseline variables most strongly associated with BMP10 levels at 2 months were baseline BMP10 levels, body mass index, sex, age, creatinine, diabetes, warfarin treatment, and AF-rhythm. During median 1.8 years follow-up, 34 ischemic strokes/systemic embolism, 155 deaths, and 99 heart failure hospitalizations occurred. Comparing the third with the first sample quartile, higher BMP10 levels at 2 months were associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 0.67-2.63], P=0.037), heart failure (HR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.17-3.12], P=0.012) and all-cause death (HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.17-2.21], P<0.001). Adding BMP10 levels at 2 months on top of established risk factors and baseline BMP10 levels improved the C-indices for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (from 0.73 to 0.75), heart failure hospitalization (0.76-0.77), and all-cause mortality (0.70-0.72), all P<0.05. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated levels of BMP10 at 2 months strengthened the associations with the risk of ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Repeated measurements of BMP10 may further refine risk stratification in patients with AF.

Optimizing warfarin dosing for patients with atrial fibrillation using machine learning.

While novel oral anticoagulants are increasingly used to reduce risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin continue to be used extensively for stroke prevention across the world. While effective in reducing the risk of strokes, the complex pharmacodynamics of warfarin make it difficult to use clinically, with many patients experiencing under- and/or over- anticoagulation. In this study we employed a novel implementation of deep reinforcement learning to provide clinical decision support to optimize time in therapeutic International Normalized Ratio (INR) range. We used a novel semi-Markov decision process formulation of the Batch-Constrained deep Q-learning algorithm to develop a reinforcement learning model to dynamically recommend optimal warfarin dosing to achieve INR of 2.0-3.0 for patients with atrial fibrillation. The model was developed using data from 22,502 patients in the warfarin treated groups of the pivotal randomized clinical trials of edoxaban (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48), apixaban (ARISTOTLE) and rivaroxaban (ROCKET AF). The model was externally validated on data from 5730 warfarin-treated patients in a fourth trial of dabigatran (RE-LY) using multilevel regression models to estimate the relationship between center-level algorithm consistent dosing, time in therapeutic INR range (TTR), and a composite clinical outcome of stroke, systemic embolism or major hemorrhage. External validation showed a positive association between center-level algorithm-consistent dosing and TTR (R2 = 0.56). Each 10% increase in algorithm-consistent dosing at the center level independently predicted a 6.78% improvement in TTR (95% CI 6.29, 7.28; p < 0.001) and a 11% decrease in the composite clinical outcome (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.81, 1.00; p = 0.015). These results were comparable to those of a rules-based clinical algorithm used for benchmarking, for which each 10% increase in algorithm-consistent dosing independently predicted a 6.10% increase in TTR (95% CI 5.67, 6.54, p < 0.001) and a 10% decrease in the composite outcome (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83, 0.98, p = 0.018). Our findings suggest that a deep reinforcement learning algorithm can optimize time in therapeutic range for patients taking warfarin. A digital clinical decision support system to promote algorithm-consistent warfarin dosing could optimize time in therapeutic range and improve clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation globally.

Temporal biomarker concentration patterns during the early course of acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Biomarker concentrations and their changes during acute coronary syndrome (ACS) provide clinically useful information on pathophysiological processes, e.g. myocardial necrosis, hemodynamic stress and inflammation. However, current evidence on temporal biomarker patterns early during ACS is limited, and studies investigating multiple biomarkers are lacking. METHODS: We measured concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and I (hs-cTnI), NT-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) in plasma samples obtained at randomization in ACS patients from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial. Linear regressions with interaction analyses were used to investigate the associations of biomarker concentrations with the time from symptom onset and to model temporal biomarker concentration patterns. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 16,944 patients (median age 62 years; 71.3 % males) with 6,853 (40.3 %) having ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 10,141 (59.7 %) having non-ST-elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS). Concentrations of all biomarkers were associated with time from symptom onset (pinteraction<0.001), apart for GDF-15 (pinteraction=0.092). Concentration increases were more pronounced in STEMI compared to NSTE-ACS. Temporal biomarker patterns for hs-cTnT and hs-cTnI were different depending on sex whereas biomarker patterns for the other biomarkers were similar in cohorts defined by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Temporal concentration patterns differ for various biomarkers early during ACS, reflecting the variability in the activation and duration of different pathophysiological processes, and the amount of injured myocardium. Our data emphasize that the time elapsed from symptom onset should be considered for the interpretation of biomarker results in ACS.

Efficacy and Safety of Non-Vitamin-K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Across the Spectrum of Body Mass Index and Body Weight: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy and safety of non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) across the spectrum of body mass index (BMI) and body weight (BW) remain uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed data from COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation), which pooled patient-level data from the 4 pivotal randomized trials of NOAC versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation. The primary efficacy and safety outcomes were stroke or systemic embolic events (stroke/SEE) and major bleeding, respectively; secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke/SEE, intracranial hemorrhage, death, and the net clinical outcome (stroke/SEE, major bleeding, or death). Each outcome was examined across BMI and BW. Because few patients had a BMI <18.5 kg/m2 (n=598), the primary analyses were restricted to those with a BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2. RESULTS: Among 58 464 patients, the median BMI was 28.3 (interquartile range, 25.2-32.2) kg/m2, and the median BW was 81.0 (interquartile range, 70.0-94.3) kg. The event probability of stroke/SEE was lower at a higher BMI irrespective of treatment, whereas the probability of major bleeding was lower at a higher BMI with warfarin but relatively unchanged across BMI with NOACs. NOACs reduced stroke/SEE overall (adjusted hazard ratio [HRadj], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.73-0.88]; P<0.001), with a generally consistent effect across BMI (Ptrend across HRs, 0.48). NOACs also reduced major bleeding overall (HRadj, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82-0.94]; P<0.001), but with attenuation of the benefit at a higher BMI (trend test across BMI [Ptrend], 0.003). The overall treatment effects of NOACs versus warfarin for secondary outcomes were consistent across BMI, with the exception of the net clinical outcome and death. While these outcomes were overall reduced with NOACs (net clinical outcome, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.95]; P<0.001; death, HRadj, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.86-0.97]; P=0.003), these benefits were attenuated at higher BMI (Ptrend, 0.001 and 0.08, respectively). All findings were qualitatively similar when analyzed across BW. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment effect of NOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation is generally consistent for stroke/SEE across the spectrum of BMI and BW, whereas the reduction in major bleeding is attenuated in those with higher BMI or BW. Death and the net clinical outcome are overall reduced with NOACs over warfarin, although there remain uncertainties for these outcomes at a very high BMI and BW.

Development and validation of a quantitative Proximity Extension Assay instrument with 21 proteins associated with cardiovascular risk (CVD-21).

BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a substantial burden to healthcare systems worldwide. New tools are needed to improve precision of treatment by optimizing the balance between efficacy, safety, and cost. We developed a high-throughput multi-marker decision support instrument which simultaneously quantifies proteins associated with CVD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Candidate proteins independently associated with different clinical outcomes were selected from clinical studies by the screening of 368 circulating biomarkers. We then custom-designed a quantitative PEA-panel with 21 proteins (CVD-21) by including recombinant antigens as calibrator samples for normalization and absolute quantification of the proteins. The utility of the CVD-21 tool was evaluated in plasma samples from a case-control cohort of 4224 patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) using multivariable Cox regression analyses and machine learning techniques. The assays in the CVD-21 tool gave good precision and high sensitivity with lower level of determination (LOD) between 0.03-0.7 pg/ml for five of the biomarkers. The dynamic range for the assays was sufficient to accurately quantify the biomarkers in the validation study except for troponin I, which in the modeling was replaced by high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT). We created seven different multimarker models, including a reference model with NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, GDF-15, IL-6, and cystatin C and one model with only clinical variables, for the comparison of the discriminative value of the CVD-21 tool. All models with biomarkers including hs-TnT provided similar discrimination for all outcomes, e.g. c-index between 0.68-0.86 and outperformed models using only clinical variables. Most important prognostic biomarkers were MMP-12, U-PAR, REN, VEGF-D, FGF-23, TFF3, ADM, and SCF. CONCLUSIONS: The CVD-21 tool is the very first instrument which with PEA simultaneously quantifies 21 proteins with associations to different CVD. Novel pathophysiologic and prognostic information beyond that of established biomarkers were identified by a number of proteins.

Genetics of circulating inflammatory proteins identifies drivers of immune-mediated disease risk and therapeutic targets.

Circulating proteins have important functions in inflammation and a broad range of diseases. To identify genetic influences on inflammation-related proteins, we conducted a genome-wide protein quantitative trait locus (pQTL) study of 91 plasma proteins measured using the Olink Target platform in 14,824 participants. We identified 180 pQTLs (59 cis, 121 trans). Integration of pQTL data with eQTL and disease genome-wide association studies provided insight into pathogenesis, implicating lymphotoxin-α in multiple sclerosis. Using Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess causality in disease etiology, we identified both shared and distinct effects of specific proteins across immune-mediated diseases, including directionally discordant effects of CD40 on risk of rheumatoid arthritis versus multiple sclerosis and inflammatory bowel disease. MR implicated CXCL5 in the etiology of ulcerative colitis (UC) and we show elevated gut CXCL5 transcript expression in patients with UC. These results identify targets of existing drugs and provide a powerful resource to facilitate future drug target prioritization.

Biomarkers and cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary disease in the ISCHEMIA Trials.

IMPORTANCE: Biomarkers may improve prediction of cardiovascular events for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), but their importance in addition to clinical tests of inducible ischemia and CAD severity is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic value of multiple biomarkers in stable outpatients with obstructive CAD and moderate or severe inducible ischemia. DESIGN AND SETTING: The ISCHEMIA and ISCHEMIA CKD trials randomized 5,956 participants with CAD to invasive or conservative management from July 2012 to January 2018; 1,064 participated in the biorepository. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular death or MI. Improvements in prediction were assessed by cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) for an interquartile increase in each biomarker, controlling for other biomarkers, in a base clinical model of risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and ischemia severity. Secondary analyses were performed among patients in whom core-lab confirmed severity of CAD was ascertained by computed cardiac tomographic angiography (CCTA). EXPOSURES: Baseline levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), high sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lipoprotein a (Lp[a]), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), Cystatin C, soluble CD 40 ligand (sCD40L), myeloperoxidase (MPO), and matrix metalloproteinase 3 (MMP3). RESULTS: Among 757 biorepository participants, median (IQR) follow-up was 3 (2-5) years, age was 67 (61-72) years, and 144 (19%) were female; 508 had severity of CAD by CCTA available. In an adjusted multimarker model with hsTnT, GDF-15, NT-proBNP and sCD40L, the adjusted HR for the primary outcome per interquartile increase in each biomarker was 1.58 (95% CI 1.22, 2.205), 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.20), 1.61 (95% 1.22, 2.14), and 1.46 (95% 1.12, 1.90), respectively. The adjusted multimarker model also improved prediction compared with the clinical model, increasing the AUC from 0.710 to 0.792 (P < .01) and 0.714 to 0.783 (P < .01) for the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. Similar findings were observed after adjusting for core-lab confirmed atherosclerosis severity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among ISCHEMIA biorepository participants, biomarkers of myocyte injury/distension, inflammation, and platelet activity improved cardiovascular event prediction in addition to risk factors, LVEF, and assessments of ischemia and atherosclerosis severity. These biomarkers may improve risk stratification for patients with stable CAD.

Heart rate and death and hospitalization for heart failure in patients with persistent or permanent atrial fibrillation: Insights from the ARISTOTLE trial.

Rate control is fundamental in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The independent association of heart rate with outcomes and range of heart rate associated with best outcomes remains uncertain. We assessed the relationship between heart rate and clinical outcomes in patients with persistent or permanent AF enrolled in the randomized, double-blind ARISTOTLE trial. In patients with persistent or permanent AF, a faster heart rate is associated with a modest, but statistically significant increase in death and heart failure hospitalizations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00412984).

Plasma angiopoietin-2 and its association with heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Several biomarkers are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but a causal relationship has not been established. This study aimed to evaluate angiopoietin-2, a novel candidate biomarker of endothelial inflammation and vascular remodelling, in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Angiopoietin-2 was measured in plasma obtained from patients with AF treated with aspirin monotherapy (exploration cohort, n = 2987) or with oral anticoagulation (validation cohort, n = 13 079). Regression models were built to assess the associations between angiopoietin-2, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. In both cohorts, plasma angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with AF on the baseline electrocardiogram and persistent/permanent AF, age, history of heart failure, female sex, tobacco use/smoking, body mass index, renal dysfunction, diabetes, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Angiopoietin-2 was independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure after adjusting for age, creatinine, and clinical characteristics in the exploration cohort [c-index 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.82; third vs. first quartile, hazard ratio (HR) 1.74, 95% CI 1.26-2.41] and in the validation cohort (c-index 0.76, 95% CI 0.74-0.78; HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.37-1.82). In both cohorts, the association persisted when also adjusting for NT-proBNP (P ≤ 0.001). In full multivariable models also adjusted for NT-proBNP, angiopoietin-2 did not show statistically significant associations with ischaemic stroke, cardiovascular and all-cause death, or major bleeding that were consistent across the two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, plasma levels of angiopoietin-2 were independently associated with subsequent hospitalization for heart failure and provided incremental prognostic value to clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP.

Morbidity and Mortality Associated With Heart Failure in Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Pooled Analysis of 4 Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) may complicate acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and is associated with a high burden of short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. Only limited data regarding future ischemic events and rehospitalization are available for patients who suffer HF before or during ACS. METHODS: A secondary analysis of 4 large ACS trials (PLATO, APPRAISE-2, TRACER, and TRILOGY ACS) using Cox proportional hazards models was performed to investigate the association of HF status (no HF, chronic HF, de novo HF) at presentation for ACS with all-cause and cardiovascular death, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE ), myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) by 1 year. Cumulative incidence plots are presented at 30 days and 1 year. RESULTS: A total of 11.1% of the 47,474 patients presenting with ACS presented with evidence of acute HF, 55.0% of whom presented with de novo HF. Patients with chronic HF presented with evidence of acute HF at a higher rate than those with no previous HF (40.3% vs 6.9%). Compared to those without HF, those with chronic and de novo HF had higher rates of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-2.34 and aHR 1.47, 95% CI1.15-1.88, respectively), MACE (aHR 1.47, 95% CI1.31-1-.66 and aHR 1.38, 95% CI1.12-1.69), and HHF (aHR 2.29, 95% CI2.02-2.61 and aHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.20-1.82) at 1 year. CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of patients with ACS, both prior and de novo HF complicating ACS were associated with significantly higher risk-adjusted rates of death, ischemic events and HHF at 30 days and 1 year. Further studies examining the association between HF and outcomes in this high-risk population are warranted, especially given the advent of more contemporary HF therapies.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin Across the Spectrum of Kidney Function: Patient-Level Network Meta-Analyses From COMBINE AF.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty surrounding the use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with kidney dysfunction. METHODS: Using the COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) database (data from RE-LY [Randomized Evaluation of Long-term Anticoagulation Therapy], ROCKET AF [Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], ARISTOTLE [Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation], and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 [Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48]), we performed an individual patient-level network meta-analysis to evaluate the safety and efficacy of DOACs versus warfarin across continuous creatinine clearance (CrCl). A multivariable Cox model including treatment-by-CrCl interaction with random effects was fitted to estimate hazard ratios for paired treatment strategies (standard-dose DOAC, lower-dose DOAC, and warfarin). Outcomes included stroke and systemic embolism (S/SE), major bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and death. RESULTS: Among 71 683 patients (mean age, 70.6±9.4 years; 37.3% female; median follow-up, 23.1 months), the mean CrCl was 75.5±30.5 mL/min. The incidence of S/SE, major bleeding, ICH, and death increased significantly with worsening kidney function. Across continuous CrCl values down to 25 mL/min, the hazard of major bleeding did not change for patients randomized to standard-dose DOACs compared with those randomized to warfarin (Pinteraction=0.61). Compared with warfarin, standard-dose DOAC use resulted in a significantly lower hazard of ICH at CrCl values <122 mL/min, with a trend for increased safety with DOAC as CrCl decreased (6.2% decrease in hazard ratio per 10-mL/min decrease in CrCl; Pinteraction=0.08). Compared with warfarin, standard-dose DOAC use resulted in a significantly lower hazard of S/SE with CrCl <87 mL/min, with a significant treatment-by-CrCl effect (4.8% decrease in hazard ratio per 10-mL/min decrease in CrCl; Pinteraction=0.01). The hazard of death was significantly lower with standard-dose DOACs for patients with CrCl <77 mL/min, with a trend toward increasing benefit with lower CrCl (2.1% decrease in hazard ratio per 10-mL/min decrease in CrCl; Pinteraction=0.08). Use of lower-dose rather than standard-dose DOACs was not associated with a significant difference in incident bleeding or ICH in patients with reduced kidney function but was associated with a higher incidence4 of death and S/SE. CONCLUSIONS: Standard-dose DOACs are safer and more effective than warfarin down to a CrCl of at least 25 mL/min. Lower-dose DOACs do not significantly lower the incidence of bleeding or ICH compared with standard-dose DOACs but are associated with a higher incidence of S/SE and death. These findings support the use of standard-dose DOACs over warfarin in patients with kidney dysfunction.

Outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation.

AIMS: The prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke while taking oral anticoagulation is poorly understood. This study aimed to characterize the outcomes of patients following a stroke event while on oral anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual participant data from five pivotal randomized trials of antithrombotic therapy in AF were used to assess the outcomes of patients with a post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (warfarin, standard-, or lower-dose direct oral anticoagulant regimen) during trial follow-up. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke after the first post-randomization ischemic stroke. The primary analysis included 1163 patients with a first post-randomization ischemic stroke while on study medication (median age 73 years, 39.3% female, 35.4% history of stroke before trial enrollment). During a median continued follow-up of 337 days, 74 patients had a recurrent ischemic stroke [cumulative incidence at 1 year: 7.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.2%-8.7%]. The cumulative incidence of mortality at 3 months after stroke was 12.4% (95% CI 10.5%-14.4%). Consistent results for the incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke at 1 year were obtained in an analysis accounting for the competing risk of death (6.2%, 95% CI 4.8%-7.9%) and in a landmark analysis excluding the first 2 weeks after the index stroke and only including patients without permanent study drug discontinuation since then (6.8%, 95% CI 4.6%-8.9%). CONCLUSION: Patients with AF and ischemic stroke while on oral anticoagulation are at increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke and death. These patients currently have an unmet medical need.

Vascular endothelial growth factor-D plasma levels and VEGFD genetic variants are independently associated with outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family is involved in pathophysiological mechanisms underlying cardiovascular (CV) diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between circulating VEGF ligands and/or soluble receptors and CV outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). METHODS AND RESULTS: Levels of VEGF biomarkers, including bFGF, Flt-1, KDR (VEGFR2), PlGF, Tie-2, VEGF-A, VEGF-C, and VEGF-D, were measured in the PLATO ACS cohort (n = 2091, discovery cohort). Subsequently, VEGF-D was also measured in the STABILITY CCS cohort (n = 4015, confirmation cohort) to verify associations with CV outcomes. Associations between plasma VEGF-D and outcomes were analysed by multiple Cox regression models with hazard ratios (HR [95% CI]) comparing the upper vs. the lower quartile of VEGF-D. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) of VEGF-D in PLATO identified SNPs that were used as genetic instruments in Mendelian randomization (MR) meta-analyses vs. clinical endpoints. GWAS and MR were performed in patients with ACS from PLATO (n = 10 013) and FRISC-II (n = 2952), and with CCS from the STABILITY trial (n = 10 786). VEGF-D, KDR, Flt-1, and PlGF showed significant association with CV outcomes. VEGF-D was most strongly associated with CV death (P = 3.73e-05, HR 1.892 [1.419, 2.522]). Genome-wide significant associations with VEGF-D levels were identified at the VEGFD locus on chromosome Xp22. MR analyses of the combined top ranked SNPs (GWAS P-values; rs192812042, P = 5.82e-20; rs234500, P = 1.97e-14) demonstrated a significant effect on CV mortality [P = 0.0257, HR 1.81 (1.07, 3.04) per increase of one unit in log VEGF-D]. CONCLUSION: This is the first large-scale cohort study to demonstrate that both VEGF-D plasma levels and VEGFD genetic variants are independently associated with CV outcomes in patients with ACS and CCS. Measurements of VEGF-D levels and/or VEGFD genetic variants may provide incremental prognostic information in patients with ACS and CCS.

Individual net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation using the ABC-AF risk scores.

BACKGROUND: Decisions on stroke prevention strategies in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) depend on the perceived risks of stroke and bleeding with different antithrombotic treatment strategies. The study objectives were to evaluate net clinical outcome with oral anticoagulation (OAC) for the individual patient with AF and to identify clinically relevant thresholds for OAC treatment. METHODS: Patients with AF receiving OAC treatment in the randomized ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials, with available biomarkers for calculation of ABC-AF scores at baseline, were included (n = 23,121). Observed 1-year risk on OAC was compared with predicted 1-year risk if the same patients would not have received OAC using the ABC-AF scores calibrated for aspirin. Net clinical outcome was defined as the sum of stroke and major bleeding risks. RESULTS: The ratio between the 1-year incidence of major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism events ranged from 1.4 to 10.6 according to different ABC-AF risk profiles. Net clinical outcome analyses showed that in patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk >1% per year on OAC (>3% without OAC), treatment with OAC consistently provides larger net clinical benefit than no-OAC treatment. In patients with an ABC-AF-stroke risk <1.0% per year on OAC (<3% without OAC) an individualized balancing of risks regarding OAC or no-OAC treatment is needed. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF, the ABC-AF risk scores allow an individual and continuous estimate of the balance between benefits and risks with OAC treatment. This precision medicine tool therefore seems useful as decision support and visualizes the net clinical benefit or harm with OAC treatment (http://www.abc-score.com/abcaf/). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00412984 (ARISTOTLE) and NCT00262600 (RE-LY).

Real world evidence: Perspectives from a European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Round Table with contribution from the European Medicines Agency.

Real world data (RWD) refers to healthcare information that is routinely collected in electronic healthcare records (EHR), hospital and pharmacy records, patient and disease registries, and health insurance databases. The collection and analysis of this vast amount of data is an important complement to that obtained from conventional randomised controlled trials (RCT). Real world data has been used for healthcare quality improvements, to conduct clinical trials, to support drug and device development, and to inform medical guidelines. The utility of RWD may be facilitated by common data models, which standardise format and content, and allow data from different health systems to be analysed together. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) supports the use of RWD in collaboration with national cardiac societies, regulatory authorities, and industry to encourage continuous quality of care improvements at the hospital and country level, to conduct registry-based randomised clinical trials (R-RCT) and to facilitate safety surveillance of novel drugs and devices. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is developing systems and processes to enable the use of RWD that can help in trial planning, defining clinical contexts, and enhancing outcome assessments. RWD can also contribute to the measurement of the impact of regulatory actions, such as contraindications or restriction of indications by looking at medicines use patterns over time across European Member States. A number of other initiatives from the European Commission and the EMA are underway to strengthen the EU's health security framework, and foster the collection and utilisation of RWD.

Biomarker Concentrations and Their Temporal Changes in Patients With Myocardial Infarction and Nonobstructive Compared With Obstructive Coronary Arteries: Results From the PLATO Trial.

Background The pathobiology of myocardial infarction (MI) with nonobstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is often uncertain. Investigating biomarker concentrations and their changes may offer novel pathophysiological insights. Methods and Results In this post hoc study of the PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) trial, concentrations of hs-cTnT (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), and GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor 15) were measured in patients with MINOCA at baseline (n=554) and at 1-month follow-up (n=107). For comparisons, biomarkers were also measured in patients with MI with obstructive (stenosis ≥50%) coronary artery disease (baseline: n=11 106; follow-up: n=2755]). Adjusted linear regression models were used to compare concentrations and their short- and long-term changes. The adjusted geometric mean ratios (GMRs) in patients with MINOCA (median age, 61 years; 50.4% women) indicated lower hs-cTnT (GMR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.68-0.88]) but higher hs-CRP (GMR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.08-1.37]) and GDF-15 concentrations (GMR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.11]) at baseline compared with patients with MI with obstructive coronary artery disease, whereas NT-proBNP concentrations were similar. Temporal decreases in hs-cTnT, NT-proBNP, and hs-CRP concentrations until 1-month follow-up were more pronounced in patients with MINOCA. At follow-up, patients with MINOCA had lower concentrations of hs-cTnT (GMR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.60-0.84]), NT-proBNP (GMR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.36-0.56]), and hs-CRP (GMR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.53-0.86]). One-month GDF-15 concentrations were similar between both groups with MI. Conclusions Biomarker concentrations suggest greater initial inflammatory activity, similar degree of myocardial dysfunction, and less pronounced myocardial injury during the acute phase of MINOCA compared with MI with obstructive coronary artery disease but also faster myocardial recovery. Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00391872.

Bone morphogenetic protein 10: a novel risk marker of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Biomarkers specifically related to atrial tissue may increase the understanding of the pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) and further improve risk prediction in this setting. Bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10) is a protein expressed in the atrial myocardium. We evaluated the association between BMP10 and the risk of ischaemic stroke and other cardiovascular events in large cohorts of patients with AF, treated with and without oral anticoagulation (OAC). METHODS AND RESULTS: BMP10 was measured in plasma samples collected at randomisation in patients with AF without OAC in the ACTIVE A and AVERROES trials (n = 2974), and with OAC in the ARISTOTLE trial (n = 13 079). BMP10 was analysed with a prototype Elecsys immunoassay. Associations with outcomes were evaluated by Cox-regression models adjusted for clinical characteristics, kidney function, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Median concentrations of BMP10 were 2.47 and 2.44 ng/mL, in the non-OAC and OAC cohort, respectively. Increasing BMP10 was associated with lower body mass index, older age, female sex, kidney dysfunction, and AF rhythm. BMP10 was consistently associated with ischaemic stroke. In the non-OAC cohort, BMP10 increased the concordance index of the multivariable model from 0.713 to 0.733 (P = 0.004) and in the OAC cohort from 0.673 to 0.694 (P < 0.001). Additionally, BMP10 maintained a significant prognostic value after additionally adjusting for NT-proBNP. BMP10 was not independently associated with bleeding or with death. CONCLUSION: The novel atrial biomarker BMP10 was independently associated with ischaemic stroke in patients with AF irrespective of OAC treatment. BMP10 seems to be more specifically related to the risk of ischaemic stroke in AF. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: In this study, BMP10 may be a novel specific biomarker of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, irrespective of oral anticoagulation.