Lava dome cycles reveal rise and fall of magma column at Popocatépetl volcano.

Lava domes exhibit highly unpredictable and hazardous behavior, which is why imaging their morphological evolution to decipher the underlying governing mechanisms remains a major challenge. Using high-resolution satellite radar imagery enhanced with deep-learning, we image the repetitive dome construction-subsidence cycles at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) with very high temporal and spatial resolution. We show that these cycles resemble gas-driven rise and fall of the upper magma column, where buoyant bubble-rich magma is extruded from the conduit (in ~hours-days), and successively drained back (in ~days-months) as magma degasses and crystallizes. These cycles are superimposed on a progressive decadal crater deepening, accompanied by heat and gas flux decrease, which could be partially explained by gas depletion within the magma plumbing system. Results reinforce the idea that gas retention and escape from the magma column play a key role in the short- and long-term morphological evolution of low-viscosity lava domes and their associated hazards.

Combining thermal, tri-stereo optical and bi-static InSAR satellite imagery for lava volume estimates: the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, La Palma.

Determining outline, volume and effusion rate during an effusive volcanic eruption is crucial as it is a major controlling factor of the lava flow lengths, the prospective duration and hence the associated hazards. We present for the first time a multi-sensor thermal-and-topographic satellite data analysis for estimating lava effusion rates and volume. At the 2021 lava field of Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, we combine VIIRS + MODIS thermal data-based effusion rate estimates with DSMs analysis derived from optical tri-stereo Pléiades and TanDEM-X bi-static SAR-data. This multi-sensor-approach allows to overcome limitations of single-methodology-studies and to achieve both, high-frequent observation of the relative short-term effusion rate trends and precise total volume estimates. We find a final subaerial-lava volume of [Formula: see text] with a MOR of 28.8 ± 1.4 m3/s. We identify an initially sharp eruption-rate-peak, followed by a gradually decreasing trend, interrupted by two short-lived-peaks in mid/end November. High eruption rate accompanied by weak seismicity was observed during the early stages of the eruption, while during later stage the lava effusion trend coincides with seismicity. This article demonstrates the geophysical monitoring of eruption rate fluctuations, that allows to speculate about changes of an underlying pathway during the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption.

Hidden mechanical weaknesses within lava domes provided by buried high-porosity hydrothermal alteration zones.

Catastrophic lava dome collapse is considered an unpredictable volcanic hazard because the physical properties, stress conditions, and internal structure of lava domes are not well understood and can change rapidly through time. To explain the locations of dome instabilities at Merapi volcano, Indonesia, we combined geochemical and mineralogical analyses, rock physical property measurements, drone-based photogrammetry, and geoinformatics. We show that a horseshoe-shaped alteration zone that formed in 2014 was subsequently buried by renewed lava extrusion in 2018. Drone data, as well as geomechanical, mineralogical, and oxygen isotope data suggest that this zone is characterized by high-porosity hydrothermally altered materials that are mechanically weak. We additionally show that the new lava dome is currently collapsing along this now-hidden weak alteration zone, highlighting that a detailed understanding of dome architecture, made possible using the monitoring techniques employed here, is essential for assessing hazards associated with dome and edifice failure at volcanoes worldwide.

Thermal remote sensing reveals communication between volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group.

Volcanoes are traditionally considered isolated with an activity that is mostly independent of the surrounding, with few eruptions only (< 2%) associated with a tectonic earthquake trigger. Evidence is now increasing that volcanoes forming clusters of eruptive centers may simultaneously erupt, show unrest, or even shut-down activity. Using infrared satellite data, we detail 20 years of eruptive activity (2000-2020) at Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, and Tolbachik, the three active volcanoes of the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group (KVG), Kamchatka. We show that the neighboring volcanoes exhibit multiple and reciprocal interactions on different timescales that unravel the magmatic system's complexity below the KVG. Klyuchevskoy and Bezymianny volcanoes show correlated activity with time-predictable and quasiperiodic behaviors, respectively. This is consistent with magma accumulation and discharge dynamics at both volcanoes, typical of steady-state volcanism. However, Tolbachik volcano can interrupt this steady-state regime and modify the magma output rate of its neighbors for several years. We suggest that below the KVG the transfer of magma at crustal level is modulated by the presence of three distinct but hydraulically connected plumbing systems. Similar complex interactions may occur at other volcanic groups and must be considered to evaluate the hazard of grouped volcanoes.

A decade-long silent ground subsidence hazard culminating in a metropolitan disaster in Maceió, Brazil.

Ground subsidence caused by natural or anthropogenic processes affects major urban areas worldwide. Sinkhole formation and infrastructure fractures have intensified in the federal capital of Maceió (Alagoas, Brazil) since early 2018, forcing authorities to relocate affected residents and place buildings under demolition. In this study, we present a 16-year history (2004-2020) of surface displacement, which shows precursory deformations in 2004-2005, reaching a maximum cumulative subsidence of approximately 200 cm near the Mundaú Lagoon coast in November 2020. By integrating the displacement observations with numerical source modelling, we suggest that extensive subsidence can be primarily associated with the removal of localized, deep-seated material at the location and depth where salt is mined. We discuss the accelerating subsidence rates, influence of severe precipitation events on the aforementioned geological instability, and related hazards. This study suggests that feedback destabilization mechanisms may arise in evaporite systems due to anthropogenic activities, fostering enhanced and complex superficial ground deformation.

A review framework of how earthquakes trigger volcanic eruptions.

It is generally accepted that tectonic earthquakes may trigger volcanic activity, although the underlying mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here, we review current knowledge, and introduce a novel framework to help characterize earthquake-triggering processes. This framework outlines three parameters observable at volcanoes, namely magma viscosity, open- or closed-system degassing and the presence or absence of an active hydrothermal system. Our classification illustrates that most types of volcanoes may be seismically-triggered, though require different combinations of volcanic and seismic conditions, and triggering is unlikely unless the system is primed for eruption. Seismically-triggered unrest is more common, and particularly associated with hydrothermal systems.

Anatomy of the Bezymianny volcano merely before an explosive eruption on 20.12.2017.

Strong explosive eruptions of volcanoes throw out mixtures of gases and ash from high-pressure underground reservoirs. Investigating these subsurface reservoirs may help to forecast and characterize an eruption. In this study, we compare seismic tomography results with remote sensing and petrology data to identify deep and subaerial manifestations of pre-eruptive processes at Bezymianny volcano in Kamchatka shortly before its violent explosion on December 20, 2017. Based on camera networks we identify precursory rockfalls, and based on satellite radar data we find pre-eruptive summit inflation. Our seismic network recorded the P and S wave data from over 500 local earthquakes used to invert for a 3D seismic velocity distribution beneath Bezymianny illuminating its eruptive state days before the eruption. The derived tomography model, in conjunction with the presence of the high-temperature-stable SiO2 polymorph Tridymite in juvenile rock samples , allowed us to infer the coexistence of magma and gas reservoirs revealed as anomalies of low (1.5) and high (2.0) Vp/Vs ratios, respectively, located at depths of 2-3 km and only 2 km apart. The reservoirs both control the current eruptive activity: while the magma reservoir is responsible for episodic dome growth and lava flow emplacements, the spatially separated gas reservoir may control short but powerful explosive eruptions of Bezymianny.

UAS-based tracking of the Santiaguito Lava Dome, Guatemala.

Imaging growing lava domes has remained a great challenge in volcanology due to their inaccessibility and the severe hazard of collapse or explosion. Changes in surface movement, temperature, or lava viscosity are considered crucial data for hazard assessments at active lava domes and thus valuable study targets. Here, we present results from a series of repeated survey flights with both optical and thermal cameras at the Caliente lava dome, part of the Santiaguito complex at Santa Maria volcano, Guatemala, using an Unoccupied Aircraft System (UAS) to create topography data and orthophotos of the lava dome. This enabled us to track pixel-offsets and delineate the 2D displacement field, strain components, extrusion rate, and apparent lava viscosity. We find that the lava dome displays motions on two separate timescales, (i) slow radial expansion and growth of the dome and (ii) a narrow and fast-moving lava extrusion. Both processes also produced distinctive fracture sets detectable with surface motion, and high strain zones associated with thermal anomalies. Our results highlight that motion patterns at lava domes control the structural and thermal architecture, and different timescales should be considered to better characterize surface motions during dome growth to improve the assessment of volcanic hazards.

Hydrothermal alteration of andesitic lava domes can lead to explosive volcanic behaviour.

Dome-forming volcanoes are among the most hazardous volcanoes on Earth. Magmatic outgassing can be hindered if the permeability of a lava dome is reduced, promoting pore pressure augmentation and explosive behaviour. Laboratory data show that acid-sulphate alteration, common to volcanoes worldwide, can reduce the permeability on the sample lengthscale by up to four orders of magnitude and is the result of pore- and microfracture-filling mineral precipitation. Calculations using these data demonstrate that intense alteration can reduce the equivalent permeability of a dome by two orders of magnitude, which we show using numerical modelling to be sufficient to increase pore pressure. The fragmentation criterion shows that the predicted pore pressure increase is capable of fragmenting the majority of dome-forming materials, thus promoting explosive volcanism. It is crucial that hydrothermal alteration, which develops over months to years, is monitored at dome-forming volcanoes and is incorporated into real-time hazard assessments.

Complex hazard cascade culminating in the Anak Krakatau sector collapse.

Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island's surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping décollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano's flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes.

The effect of giant lateral collapses on magma pathways and the location of volcanism.

Flank instability and lateral collapse are recurrent processes during the structural evolution of volcanic edifices, and they affect and are affected by magmatic activity. It is known that dyke intrusions have the potential to destabilise the flanks of a volcano, and that lateral collapses may change the style of volcanism and the arrangement of shallow dykes. However, the effect of a large lateral collapse on the location of a new eruptive centre remains unclear. Here, we use a numerical approach to simulate the pathways of magmatic intrusions underneath the volcanic edifice, after the stress redistribution resulting from a large lateral collapse. Our simulations are quantitatively validated against the observations at Fogo volcano, Cabo Verde. The results reveal that a lateral collapse can trigger a significant deflection of deep magma pathways in the crust, favouring the formation of a new eruptive centre within the collapse embayment. Our results have implications for the long-term evolution of intraplate volcanic ocean islands.

Effects of Host-rock Fracturing on Elastic-deformation Source Models of Volcano Deflation.

Volcanoes commonly inflate or deflate during episodes of unrest or eruption. Continuum mechanics models that assume linear elastic deformation of the Earth's crust are routinely used to invert the observed ground motions. The source(s) of deformation in such models are generally interpreted in terms of magma bodies or pathways, and thus form a basis for hazard assessment and mitigation. Using discontinuum mechanics models, we show how host-rock fracturing (i.e. non-elastic deformation) during drainage of a magma body can progressively change the shape and depth of an elastic-deformation source. We argue that this effect explains the marked spatio-temporal changes in source model attributes inferred for the March-April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Reunion. We find that pronounced deflation-related host-rock fracturing can: (1) yield inclined source model geometries for a horizontal magma body; (2) cause significant upward migration of an elastic-deformation source, leading to underestimation of the true magma body depth and potentially to a misinterpretation of ascending magma; and (3) at least partly explain underestimation by elastic-deformation sources of changes in sub-surface magma volume.

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow.

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use multiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-square-kilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, near-exponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.

Stress control of deep rift intrusion at Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii.

Mauna Loa volcano, Hawaii, deforms by a combination of shallow dike intrusions in the rift zones and earthquakes along the base of the volcano, but it is not known how the spreading is accommodated in the lower part of the volcanic edifice. We present evidence from interferometric synthetic aperture radar data for secular inflation of a dike-like magma body at intermediate depth in the southwest rift zone during 2002 to 2005. Magma accumulation occurred in a section of the rift zone that was unclamped by previous dikes and earthquakes, suggesting that stress transfer plays an important role in controlling subsurface magma accumulation.

HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors are associated with decreased serum neopterin levels in stable coronary artery disease.

Neopterin, a marker of stimulated cellular immune response, is increased in unstable angina, acute myocardial infarction and possibly stable coronary artery disease. 3-Hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) reductase inhibitors (statins) have anti-inflammatory properties, but their effect on neopterin is largely unknown. Neopterin was measured in 232 patients undergoing elective coronary angiography and compared to the degree of atherosclerosis, use of concomitant medications and demographics. Neopterin was lower in subjects using statins (n = 66) compared to those not taking statins (median (range): 6.65 (4.1-18.3) vs. 7.70 (3.6-29.1) nmol/l, p < 0.0001). This association was also found in the subgroup of patients with coronary artery disease (1-3-vessel disease, n = 164; 6.60 (4.1-18.3) vs. 7.80 (3.6-29.1) nmol/l, p = 0.0012), whereas only a slight tendency toward lower neopterin levels was found in the group without atherosclerosis (6.90 (5.1-16.0) vs. 7.60 (4.0-18.5) nmol/l, p = 0.17). In patients with coronary atherosclerosis, neopterin concentrations were lower in smokers (n = 105) compared to non-smokers (7.20 (3.6-29.1) vs. 7.90 (4.4-18.6) nmol/l, p < 0.02), confirming previous observations. However, use of statins was associated with lower neopterin levels in both non-smokers and smokers (6.70 (4.1-18.3) vs. 7.60 (3.6-29.1) nmol/l, p < 0.05, and 6.20 (5.2-16.0) vs. 7.80 (4.4-18.6) nmol/l, p < 0.05, respectively). Overall, similar serum neopterin concentrations were found in patients with coronary atherosclerosis and those without. In accordance with their anti-inflammatory effects, the use of statins is associated with lower neopterin levels in patients undergoing elective coronary angiography.