Global prediction for mpox epidemic.

The mpox epidemic had spread worldwide and become an epidemic of international concern. Before the emergence of targeted vaccines and specific drugs, it is necessary to numerically simulate and predict the epidemic. In order to better understand and grasp its transmission situation, and take some countermeasures accordingly when necessary, we predicted and simulated mpox transmission, vaccination and control scenarios using model developed for COVID-19 predictions. The results show that the prediction model can also achieve good results in predicting the mpox epidemic based on modified SEIR model. The total number of people infected with mpox on Dec 31, 2022 reached 83878, while the prediction of the model was 96456 with a relative error of 15%. The United States, Brazil, Spain, France, the United Kingdom and Germany are six countries with serve mpox epidemic. The predictions of their epidemic are 30543, 11191, 7447, 5945, 5606 and 4291 cases respectively, with an average relative error of 20%. If 30% of the population is vaccinated using a vaccine that is 78% effective, the number of infected people will drop by 29%. This shows that the system can be practically applied to the prediction of mpox epidemic and provide corresponding decision-making reference.

The Chemical Composition of Brazilian Green Propolis and Its Protective Effects on Mouse Aortic Endothelial Cells against Inflammatory Injury.

Propolis has a very complex composition, with antibacterial, anti-inflammatory and other properties. To determine the composition of ethanol extracts of Brazilian green propolis (EEP-B) and their protective effect on mouse aortic endothelial cells (MAECs), the chemical composition of EEP-B was analysed by UPLC/Q-TOF-MS/MS, and the protective effect of EEP-B on the proliferation of lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced MAECs was determined by Cell Counting Kit-8 (CCK-8) assays. The protein levels of inflammatory cytokines tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin- 6 (IL-6) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and ICAM-1, VCAM-1 and MCP-1 expressions were analysed by western blotting. The results showed that a total of 24 compounds belonging to cinnamic acids and flavonoids, including 3,5-diisopentenyl-4-hydroxycinnamic acid (artepillin C), kaempferide, 3-isoprenyl p-coumaric acid, pinocembrin and 4'-methoxy pinobanksin, were identified in EEP-B. Among them, a new component, suggested to be 5-isoprenyl caffeic acid p-coumaric acid ester, was reported for the first time. The LPS-induced levels of TNF-α, IL-6, ICAM-1, VCAM-1 and MCP-1 were downregulated in response to 5, 10 and 20 µg/mL EEP-B. This study revealed that EEP-B could reduce LPS-induced inflammatory reactions, improve cell survival, and protect MAECs by regulating ICAM-1, VCAM-1 and MCP-1 expression. These findings could provide a theoretical basis for MAEC treatment using EEP-B.