Recursive Zero-COVID model and quantitation of control efforts of the Omicron epidemic in Jilin province.

Since the beginning of March 2022, the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province. To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province, we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures, and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively. The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the dates of elimination of cases at the community level of Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17, respectively, which are consistent with the real situation. Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic. It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic. In addition, the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.

Modeling and Evaluation of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for Curbing COVID-19 in Wuhan.

The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan was successfully curbed under the strategy of "Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism." To understand how this measure stopped the epidemics in Wuhan, we establish a compartmental model with time-varying parameters over different stages. In the early stage of the epidemic, due to resource limitations, the number of daily reported cases may lower than the actual number. We employ a dynamic-based approach to calibrate the accumulated clinically diagnosed data with a sudden jump on February 12 and 13. The model simulation shows reasonably good match with the adjusted data which allows the prediction of the cumulative confirmed cases. Numerical results reveal that the "Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism" played a significant role on the containment of COVID-19. The spread of COVID-19 cannot be inhibited if any of the measures was not effectively implemented. Our analysis also illustrates that the Fangcang Shelter Hospitals are very helpful when the beds in the designated hospitals are insufficient. Comprised with Fangcang Shelter Hospitals, the designated hospitals can contain the transmission of COVID-19 more effectively. Our findings suggest that the combined multiple measures are essential to curb an ongoing epidemic if the prevention and control measures can be fully implemented.

Epidemiological study of hepatitis B and hepatitis C infections in Northeastern China and the beneficial effect of the vaccination strategy for hepatitis B: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Viral hepatitis, mainly hepatitis B and C, is a serious public health problem worldwide. In China, the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains high, while that of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is controversial. This study investigated the epidemiology of HBV and HCV infections and assessed the beneficial effect of the vaccination strategy for hepatitis B in Northeastern China. METHODS: From June 2016 to August 2016, 6541 residents of Changchun in Northeastern China were recruited for this cross-sectional study. Demographic characteristics as well as HBV and HCV serological test results were reviewed and analyzed. RESULTS: Among all study participants, 3.8% and 0.36% tested positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-HCV, respectively. The HBsAg- and anti-HCV-positive rates were significantly higher in male participants (4.58% and 0.43%) than in female individuals (3.0% and 0.33%). Notably, among all age groups, the lowest rate of HBsAg positivity (0.2%) was found in children born after the implementation of the vaccination strategy for hepatitis B. Conversely, participants aged 40-49 years had significantly greater positive rates of HBsAg (5.9%) compared with those of other age groups. Furthermore, the highest rates of anti-HCV positivity (1.1%) were observed in participants aged 50-59 years. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of HBsAg-positivity declined significantly following successful implementation of the policy on hepatitis B vaccination, indicating a beneficial impact on the control of HBV infection. However, only a slight decrease was observed in the anti-HCV-positivity rate, identifying an area in need of improvement within viral hepatitis prevention and control programs in China.