Radiative pumping in a strongly coupled microcavity filled with a neat molecular film showing excimer emission.

Strong light-matter interactions have attracted much attention as a means to control the physical/chemical properties of organic semiconducting materials with light-matter hybrids called polaritons. To unveil the processes under strong coupling, studies on the dynamics of polaritons are of particular importance. While highly condensed molecular materials with large dipole density are ideal to achieve strong coupling, the emission properties of such films often become a mixture of monomeric and excimeric components, making the role of excimers unclear. Here, we use amorphous neat films of a new bis(phenylethynyl anthracene) derivative showing only excimer emission and investigate the excited-state dynamics of a series of strongly coupled microcavities, with each cavity being characterised by a different exciton-photon detuning. A time-resolved photoluminescence study shows that the excimer radiatively pumps the lower polariton in the relaxation process and the decay profile reflects the density of states. The delayed emission derived from triplet-triplet annihilation is not sensitive to the cavity environment, possibly due to the rapid excimer formation. Our results highlight the importance of controlling intermolecular interactions towards rational design of organic exciton-polariton devices, whose performance depends on efficient polariton relaxation pathways.

Modulating macrophage phenotype for accelerated wound healing with chlorogenic acid-loaded nanocomposite hydrogel.

Wound healing involves distinct phases, including hemostasis, inflammation, proliferation, and remodeling, which is a complex and dynamic process. Conventional preparations often fail to meet multiple demands and provide prompt information about wound status. Here, a pH/ROS dual-responsive hydrogel (OHA-PP@Z-CA@EGF) was constructed based on oxidized hyaluronic acid (OHA), phenylboronic acid-grafted ε-polylysine (PP), chlorogenic acid (CA)-loaded ZIF-8 (Z-CA), and epidermal growth factor (EGF), which possesses intrinsic antibacterial, antioxidant, and angiogenic capacities. Due to the Schiff base and Phenylboronate ester bonds, the hydrogel exhibited excellent mechanical properties, strong adhesion, good biodegradability, high biocompatibility, stable rheological properties, and self-healing ability. Moreover, introducing Z-CA as an initiator and nanofiller led to the additional cross-linking of hydrogel through coordination bonds, which further improved the mechanical properties and antioxidant capabilities. Bleeding models of liver and tail amputations demonstrated rapid hemostatic properties of the hydrogel. Besides, the hydrogel regulated macrophage phenotypes via the NF-κB/JAK-STAT pathways, relieved oxidative stress, promoted cell migration and angiogenesis, and accelerated diabetic wound healing. The hydrogel also enabled real-time monitoring of the wound healing stages by colorimetric detection. This multifunctional hydrogel opens new avenues for the treatment and management of full-thickness diabetic wounds.

Comparison of the effectiveness four years after Homo/Hetero prime-boost with 10 µg HP and 20 µg CHO recombinant hepatitis B vaccine at 1 and 6 months in maternal HBsAg-negative children.

Introduction: Limited data were available on the effectivenessfour years after Homo or Hetero prime-boost with 10 µg Hansenulapolymorpha recombinant hepatitis B vaccine (HepB-HP) and 20 µgChinese hamster ovary cell HepB (HepB-CHO). Methods: A crosssectional study was performed in maternalhepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-negative children whoreceived one dose of 10 µg HepB-HP at birth, Homo or Heteroprime-boost with 10 µg HepB-HP and 20 µg HepB-CHO at 1 and 6months. HBsAg and hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) fouryears after immunization were quantitatively detected by achemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA). Results: A total of 359 children were included; 119 childrenreceived two doses of 10 µg HepB-HP and 120 children receivedtwo doses of 20 µg HepB-CHO, called Homo prime-boost; 120children received Hetero prime-boost with 10 µg HepB-HP and 20µg HepB-CHO. All children were HBsAg negative. The geometricmean concentration (GMC) and overall seropositivity rate (SPR) ofanti-HBs were 59.47 (95%CI: 49.00 - 72.16) mIU/ml and 85.51%(307/359). Nearly 15% of the study subjects had an anti-HBsconcentration < 10 mIU/ml and 5.01% had an anti-HBsconcentration ≤ 2.5 mIU/ml. The GMC of the 20 µg CHO Homoprime-boost group [76.05 (95%CI: 54.97 - 105.19) mIU/ml] washigher than that of the 10 µg HP Homo group [45.86 (95%CI:31.94 - 65.84) mIU/ml] (p = 0.035). The GMCs of the Heteroprime-boost groups (10 µg HP-20 µg CHO and 20 µg CHO-10 µgHP) were 75.86 (95% CI: 48.98 - 107.15) mIU/ml and 43.65(95%CI: 27.54 - 69.18) mIU/ml, respectively (p = 0.041). Aftercontrolling for sex influence, the SPR of the 20 µg CHO Homoprime-boost group was 2.087 times than that of the 10 µg HPHomo group. Discussion: The HepB booster was not necessary in the generalchildren, Homo/Hetero prime-boost with 20 µg HepB-CHO wouldincrease the anti-HBs concentration four years after immunization,timely testing and improved knowledge about the self-pay vaccinewould be good for controlling hepatitis B.

Synergistic Effects of Chemotherapy and Phototherapy on Ovarian Cancer Using Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Receptor-Mediated Liposomes Co-Loaded with SN38 and IR820.

We have developed an ovarian cancer-targeted drug delivery system based on a follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) peptide. The lipophilic chemotherapeutic drug SN38 and the photosensitizer IR820 were loaded into the phospholipid bilayer of liposomes. The combination of chemotherapy and phototherapy has become a promising strategy to improve the therapeutic effect of chemotherapy drugs on solid tumors. IR820 can be used for photodynamic therapy (PDT), effectively converting near-infrared light (NIR) into heat and producing reactive oxygen species (ROS), causing damage to intracellular components and leading to cell death. In addition, PDT generates heat in near-infrared, thereby enhancing the sensitivity of tumors to chemotherapy drugs. FSH liposomes loaded with SN38 and IR820 (SN38/IR820-Lipo@FSH) were prepared using thin-film hydration-sonication. FSH peptide binding was analyzed using 1H NMR spectrum and Maldi-Tof. The average size and zeta potential of SN38/IR820-Lipo@FSH were 105.1 ± 1.15 nm (PDI: 0.204 ± 0.03) and -27.8 ± 0.42 mV, respectively. The encapsulation efficiency of SN38 and IR820 in SN38/IR820-Lipo@FSH liposomes were 90.2% and 91.5%, respectively, and their release was slow in vitro. FSH significantly increased the uptake of liposomes, inhibited cell proliferation, and induced apoptosis in A2780 cells. Moreover, SN38/IR820-Lipo@FSH exhibited better tumor-targeting ability and anti-ovarian cancer activity in vivo when compared with non-targeted SN38/IR820-Lipo. The combination of chemotherapy and photodynamic treatment based on an FSH peptide-targeted delivery system may be an effective approach to treating ovarian cancer.

A novel non-chemically amplified resist based on polystyrene-iodonium derivatives for electron beam lithography.

To break the resolution limitation of traditional resists, more work is needed on non-chemically amplified resists (non-CARs). Non-CARs based on iodonium salt modified polystyrene (PS-I) were prepared with controllable molecular weight and structure. The properties of the resist can be adjusted by the uploading of iodonium salts on the polymer chain, the materials with a higher proportion of iodonium salts show better lithography performance. By comparing contrast curves and quality of the lithographic patterns, the optimum developing condition of 4-methyl-2-pentanone and ethyl alcohol (v:v = 1:7) was selected. The high-resolution stripes of 15 nm half-pitch (HP) can be achieved by PS-I0.58in e-beam lithography (EBL). PS-I0.58shows the advanced lithography performance in the patterns of 16 nm HP and 18 nm HP stripes with low line edge roughness (3.0 nm and 2.4 nm). The resist shows excellent potential for further pattern transfer, the etch selectivity of resist PS-I0.58to the silicon was close to 12:1. The lithographic mechanism of PS-I was investigated by experimental and theoretical calculation, which indicates the polarity of materials changes results in the solubility switch. This work provides a new option and useful guidelines for the development of high-resolution resist.

A chalcone-based ESIPT and AIE fluorophore for ß-gal imaging in living cells.

ß-Galactosidase (ß-gal), which is responsible for the hydrolysis of the glycosidic bond of lactose to galactose, has been recognized as an important biomarker of cell or organism status, especially cell senescence and primary ovarian cancer. Extensive efforts have been devoted to develop probes for detecting and visualizing ß-gal in cells. Herein, a fluorescent probe gal-HCA which possesses both excited-state intramolecular proton transfer (ESIPT) and aggregation-induced emission (AIE) properties was prepared to monitor ß-gal in living cells. The probe consists of 2-hydroxy-4'-dimethylamino-chalcone (HCA) capped with a D-galactose group. The cleavage of the glycosidic bond in gal-HCA triggered by ß-gal releases HCA, which results in a significant bathochromic shift in fluorescence from 532 to 615 nm. The probe exhibited high selectivity and sensitivity toward ß-gal with a detection limit as low as 0.0122 U mL-1. The confocal imaging investigation demonstrated the potential of gal-HCA in monitoring the endocellular overexpressed ß-gal in senescent cells and ovarian cancer cells. This study provides a straightforward approach for the development of fluorescent probes to monitor ß-gal and detection of ß-gal-associated diseases.

An organic state trace element solution for rheumatoid arthritis treatment by modulating macrophage phenotypic from M1 to M2.

Trace elements (TEs) are essential for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This study aimed to prepare a TEs solution enriched with various organic states to evaluate its preventive, therapeutic effects, and mechanism of action in RA and to provide a treatment method for RA treatment. The TEs in natural ore were extracted and added to 0.5% (W/V) L-alanyl-L-glutamine (LG) to obtain a TEs solution (LG-WLYS), which was examined for its concentration and quality. The antioxidant properties and effects of LG-WLYS on cell behavior were evaluated at the cellular level. The preventive and therapeutic effects and mechanism of action of LG-WLYS in rats with RA were explored. The LG-WLYS solution was clear, free from visible foreign matter, and had a pH of 5.33 and an osmolality of 305.67 mOsmol/kg. LG-WLYS inhibited cell migration and angiogenesis. LG-WLYS solution induced macrophages to change from M1-type to M2-type, increased the content of antioxidant enzymes (glutathione, superoxide dismutase, and IL-10), decreased the levels of nitric oxide, malondialdehyde, TNF-α, IL-1ß, IL-6, COX-2, and iNOs, scavenging reactive oxygen species from the lesion site, inhibiting the apoptosis of chondrocytes, regulating inflammatory microenvironment, and decreasing inflammation response to exert the therapeutic effect for RA. In conclusion, LG-WLYS has outstanding therapeutic and preventive effects against RA and has enormous potential for further development.

Triple Cross-linked Dynamic Responsive Hydrogel Loaded with Selenium Nanoparticles for Modulating the Inflammatory Microenvironment via PI3K/Akt/NF-κB and MAPK Signaling Pathways.

Modulating the inflammatory microenvironment can inhibit the process of inflammatory diseases (IDs). A tri-cross-linked inflammatory microenvironment-responsive hydrogel with ideal mechanical properties achieves triggerable and sustained drug delivery and regulates the inflammatory microenvironment. Here, this study develops an inflammatory microenvironment-responsive hydrogel (OD-PP@SeNPs) composed of phenylboronic acid grafted polylysine (PP), oxidized dextran (OD), and selenium nanoparticles (SeNPs). The introduction of SeNPs as initiators and nano-fillers into the hydrogel results in extra cross-linking of the polymer network through hydrogen bonding. Based on Schiff base bonds, Phenylboronate ester bonds, and hydrogen bonds, a reactive oxygen species (ROS)/pH dual responsive hydrogel with a triple-network is achieved. The hydrogel has injectable, self-healing, adhesion, outstanding flexibility, suitable swelling capacity, optimal biodegradability, excellent stimuli-responsive active substance release performance, and prominent biocompatibility. Most importantly, the hydrogel with ROS scavenging and pH-regulating ability protects cells from oxidative stress and induces macrophages into M2 polarization to reduce inflammatory cytokines through PI3K/AKT/NF-κB and MAPK pathways, exerting anti-inflammatory effects and reshaping the inflammatory microenvironment, thereby effectively treating typical IDs, including S. aureus infected wound and rheumatoid arthritis in rats. In conclusion, this dynamically responsive injectable hydrogel with a triple-network structure provides an effective strategy to treat IDs, holding great promise in clinical application.

LA67 Liposome-Loaded Thermo-Sensitive Hydrogel with Active Targeting for Efficient Treatment of Keloid via Peritumoral Injection.

A keloid is a benign tumor manifested as abnormal fibroplasia on the surface of the skin. Curing keloids has become a major clinical challenge, and searching for new treatments and medications has become critical. In this study, we developed a LA67 liposome-loaded thermo-sensitive hydrogel (LA67-RL-Gel) with active targeting for treating keloids via peritumoral injection and explored the anti-keloid mechanism. Firstly, Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) peptide-modified liposomes (LA67-RL) loaded with LA67 were prepared with a particle size of 105.9 nm and a Zeta potential of -27.4 mV, and an encapsulation efficiency of 89.6 ± 3.7%. We then constructed a thermo-sensitive hydrogel loaded with LA67-RL by poloxamer 407 and 188. The formulation was optimized through the Box-Behnken design, where the impact of the proportion of the ingredients on the quality of the hydrogel was evaluated entirely. The optimal formulation was 20.7% P407 and 2.1% P188, and the gelation time at 37 °C was 9.5 s. LA67-RL-Gel slowly released 92.2 ± 0.8% of LA67 at pH 6.5 PBS for 72 h. LA67-RL-Gel increased adhesion with KF cells; increased uptake; promoted KF cells apoptosis; inhibited cell proliferation; reduced α-SMA content; decreased collagen I, collagen III, and fibronectin deposition; inhibited angiogenesis; and modulated the keloid microenvironment, ultimately exerting anti-keloid effects. In summary, this simple, low-cost, and highly effective anti-keloid liposome hydrogel provides a novel approach for treating keloids and deserves further development.

Chemically Amplified Molecular Glass Photoresist Regulated by 2-Aminoanthracene Additive for Electron Beam Lithography and Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography.

2-Aminoanthracene was used as a nucleophilic additive in a molecular glass photoresist, bisphenol A derivative (BPA-6-epoxy), to improve advanced lithography performance. The effect of 2-aminoanthracene on BPA-6-epoxy was studied by electron beam lithography (EBL) and extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL). The result indicates that the additive can optimize the pattern outline by regulating epoxy cross-linking reaction, avoiding photoresist footing effectively in EBL. The EUVL result demonstrates that 2-aminoanthracene can significantly reduce line width roughness (LWR) for HP (Half-Pitch) 25 nm (from 4.9 to 3.8 nm) and HP 22 nm (from 6.9 to 3.0 nm). The power spectrum density (PSD) curve further confirms the reduction of roughness at medium and high frequency for HP 25 nm and the whole range of frequency for HP 22 nm, respectively. The study offers useful guidelines to improve the roughness of a chemically amplified molecular glass photoresist with epoxy groups for electron beam lithography and extreme ultraviolet lithography.

Insights into the kinetics and self-assembly order of small-molecule organic semiconductor/quantum dot blends during blade coating.

Organic-inorganic nanocomposite films formed from blends of small-molecule organic semiconductors and colloidal quantum dots are attractive candidates for high efficiency, low-cost solar energy harvesting devices. Understanding and controlling the self-assembly of the resulting organic-inorganic nanocomposite films is crucial in optimising device performance, not only at a lab-scale but for large-scale, high-throughput printing and coating methods. Here, in situ grazing incidence X-ray scattering (GIXS) gives direct insights into how small-molecule organic semiconductors and colloidal quantum dots self-assemble during blade coating. Results show that for two blends separated only by a small difference in the structure of the small molecule forming the organic phase, crystallisation may proceed down two distinct routes. It either occurs spontaneously or is mediated by the formation of quantum dot aggregates. Irrespective of the initial crystallisation route, the small-molecule crystallisation acts to exclude the quantum dot inclusions from the growing crystalline matrix phase. These results provide important fundamental understanding of structure formation in nanocomposite films of organic small molecules and colloidal quantum dots prepared via solution processing routes. It highlights the fundamental difference to structural evolution which can be made by seemingly small changes in system composition. It provides routes for the structural design and optimisation of solution-processed nanocomposites that are compatible with the large-scale deposition manufacturing techniques that are crucial in driving their wider adoption in energy harvesting applications.

Twisted Carotenoids Do Not Support Efficient Intramolecular Singlet Fission in the Orange Carotenoid Protein.

Singlet exciton fission is the spin-allowed generation of two triplet electronic excited states from a singlet state. Intramolecular singlet fission has been suggested to occur on individual carotenoid molecules within protein complexes provided that the conjugated backbone is twisted out of plane. However, this hypothesis has been forwarded only in protein complexes containing multiple carotenoids and bacteriochlorophylls in close contact. To test the hypothesis on twisted carotenoids in a "minimal" one-carotenoid system, we study the orange carotenoid protein (OCP). OCP exists in two forms: in its orange form (OCPo), the single bound carotenoid is twisted, whereas in its red form (OCPr), the carotenoid is planar. To enable room-temperature spectroscopy on canthaxanthin-binding OCPo and OCPr without laser-induced photoconversion, we trap them in a trehalose glass. Using transient absorption spectroscopy, we show that there is no evidence of long-lived triplet generation through intramolecular singlet fission despite the canthaxanthin twist in OCPo.

A Single-Component Molecular Glass Resist Based on Tetraphenylsilane Derivatives for Electron Beam Lithography.

A novel molecular glass (TPSiS) with photoacid generator (sulfonium salt group) binding to tetraphenylsilane derivatives was synthesized and characterized. The physical properties such as solubility, film-forming ability, and thermal stability of TPSiS were examined to assess the suitability for application as a candidate for photoresist materials. The sulfonium salt unit underwent photolysis to effectively generate photoacid on UV irradiation, which catalyzed the deprotection of the t-butyloxycarbonyl groups. It demonstrates that the TPSiS can be used as a 'single-component' molecular resist without any additives. The lithographic performance of the TPSiS resist was evaluated by electron beam lithography. The TPSiS resist can resolve 25 nm dense line/space patterns and 16 nm L/4S semidense line/space patterns at a dose of 45 and 85 µC/cm2 for negative-tone development (NTD). The etching selectivity of the TPSiS resist to Si substrate is 8.6 under SF6/O2 plasma, indicating a potential application. Contrast analysis suggests that the significant solubility switch within a narrow exposure dose range (18-47 µC/cm2) by NTD is favorable for high-resolution patterns. This study supplies useful guidelines for the optimization and development of single-component molecular glass resists with high lithographic performance.

An EGCG-mediated self-assembled micellar complex acts as a bioactive drug carrier.

Epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG) has attracted the increasing attention of many researchers, especially in the field of tumor therapy. However, EGCG has poor fat solubility, low stability, low bioavailability, and a high effective dose in vivo. Traditional drug delivery methods are difficult to deliver the water-soluble EGCG efficiently and in high doses to tumor sites. To address these issues, a new type of strategy has been tried in this study to transform EGCG from a "Bioactive natural ingredient" into a "Bioactive drug carrier". Briefly, the EGCG was modified with a fat-soluble 9-fluorene methoxy carbonyl (Fmoc) motif, and the obtained EGCG-Fmoc showed a considerable improvement in lipid solubility and stability. Interestingly, EGCG-Fmoc obtained the characteristic of self-assembly in water, making it easier to take up by tumor cells. Furthermore, the self-assembled nanocomplex exhibited paclitaxel encapsulation performance and could achieve the dual delivery of EGCG and paclitaxel.

pH-Responsive and Mucoadhesive Nanoparticles for Enhanced Oral Insulin Delivery: The Effect of Hyaluronic Acid with Different Molecular Weights.

Drug degradation at low pH and rapid clearance from intestinal absorption sites are the main factors limiting the development of oral macromolecular delivery systems. Based on the pH responsiveness and mucosal adhesion of hyaluronic acid (HA) and poly[2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate] (PDM), we prepared three HA-PDM nano-delivery systems loaded with insulin (INS) using three different molecular weights (MW) of HA (L, M, H), respectively. The three types of nanoparticles (L/H/M-HA-PDM-INS) had uniform particle sizes and negatively charged surfaces. The optimal drug loadings of the L-HA-PDM-INS, M-HA-PDM-INS, H-HA-PDM-INS were 8.69 ± 0.94%, 9.11 ± 1.03%, and 10.61 ± 1.16% (w/w), respectively. The structural characteristics of HA-PDM-INS were determined using FT-IR, and the effect of the MW of HA on the properties of HA-PDM-INS was investigated. The release of INS from H-HA-PDM-INS was 22.01 ± 3.84% at pH 1.2 and 63.23 ± 4.10% at pH 7.4. The protective ability of HA-PDM-INS with different MW against INS was verified by circular dichroism spectroscopy and protease resistance experiments. H-HA-PDM-INS retained 45.67 ± 5.03% INS at pH 1.2 at 2 h. The biocompatibility of HA-PDM-INS, regardless of the MW of HA, was demonstrated using CCK-8 and live-dead cell staining. Compared with the INS solution, the transport efficiencies of L-HA-PDM-INS, M-HA-PDM-INS, and H-HA-PDM-INS increased 4.16, 3.81, and 3.10 times, respectively. In vivo pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic studies were performed in diabetic rats following oral administration. H-HA-PDM-INS exhibited an effective hypoglycemic effect over a long period, with relative bioavailability of 14.62%. In conclusion, these simple, environmentally friendly, pH-responsive, and mucoadhesive nanoparticles have the potential for industrial development. This study provides preliminary data support for oral INS delivery.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during two outbreaks from March to May 2022 in Quzhou, China.

Limited data are available on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines used in China in real-world outbreaks - especially against Omicron variants in vaccinated individuals. Two outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants - the first involving the sub-lineage BA.2 and the second the BA.1 variant - occurred in Quzhou. Infected people and their close contacts were divided according to vaccination status: unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated, and boosted. The Cox proportional-hazard regression model was used to estimate the evolving hazard for vaccinated individuals after their first immunization. 138 people had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant and 13 with the BA.1 variant. Of the 151 infections, 99.34% (150/151) were mild or asymptomatic and 90.07% (136/151) were vaccine breakthrough cases. The total vaccine effectiveness (VE) of partial, full, and booster vaccinations during the two outbreaks was 47.4% (95%CI: 0-93.1%), 28.9% (95%CI: 0-60.2%), and 27.5% (95%CI: 0-58.3%). The VE of booster vaccination against the Omicron BA.1 variant was higher than that for the BA.2 variant. The cumulative hazard began to increase 220 days after the first immunization. The transmissibility of the Omicron BA.2 variant as for BA.1 did not increase in vaccinated individuals; booster vaccination after a primary course substantially increased protection. Our study found that the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant caused less severe illness and that the VE of boosters against the Omicron variant was less than 30%. Timely administration of the booster dose was important, especially for individuals aged over 80 years old.

Sulfonium-Functionalized Polystyrene-Based Nonchemically Amplified Resists Enabling Sub-13 nm Nanolithography.

Nonchemically amplified resists based on triphenyl sulfonium triflate-modified polystyrene (PSTS) were prepared by a facile method of modification of polystyrene with sulfonium groups. The uploading of the sulfonium group can be well-controlled by changing the feed ratio of raw materials, resulting in PSTS0.5 and PSTS0.7 resists with sulfonium ratios of 50 and 70%, respectively. The optimum developer (methyl isobutyl ketone/ethanol = 1:7) is obtained by analyzing contrast curves of electron beam lithography (EBL). PSTS0.7 exhibits a better resolution (18 nm half-pitch (HP)) than the PSTS0.5 resist (20 nm HP) at the same developing conditions for EBL. This novel resist platform was further evaluated by extreme ultraviolet lithography, and patterning performance down to 13 nm HP at a dose of 186 mJ cm-2 with a line edge roughness of 2.8 nm was achieved. Our detailed study of the reaction and patterning mechanism suggests that the decomposition of the polar triflate and triphenyl sulfonium groups into nonpolar sulfide or polystyrene plays an important role in the solubility switch.

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Quzhou City, China, 2005-2022.

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is one of the 10 major infectious diseases that jeopardize human health and is distributed in more than 30 countries around the world. China is the country with the highest number of reported HFRS cases worldwide, accounting for 90% of global cases. The incidence level of HFRS in Quzhou is at the forefront of Zhejiang Province, and there is no specific treatment for it yet. Therefore, it is crucial to grasp the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in Quzhou and establish a prediction model for HFRS to lay the foundation for early warning of HFRS. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic characteristics of HFRS, the incidence map was drawn by ArcGIS software, the Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Prophet model were established by R software. Then, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the fitting and prediction performances of the model. Results: A total of 843 HFRS cases were reported in Quzhou City from 2005 to 2022, with the highest annual incidence rate in 2007 (3.93/100,000) and the lowest in 2022 (1.05/100,000) (P trend<0.001). The incidence is distributed in a seasonal double-peak distribution, with the first peak from October to January and the second peak from May to July. The incidence rate in males (2.87/100,000) was significantly higher than in females (1.32/100,000). Farmers had the highest number of cases, accounting for 79.95% of the total number of cases. The incidence is high in the northwest of Quzhou City, with cases concentrated on cultivated land and artificial land. The RMSE and MAE values of the Prophet model are smaller than those of the SARIMA (1,0,1) (2,1,0)12 model. Conclusion: From 2005 to 2022, the incidence of HFRS in Quzhou City showed an overall downward trend, but the epidemic in high-incidence areas was still serious. In the future, the dynamics of HFRS outbreaks and host animal surveillance should be continuously strengthened in combination with the Prophet model. During the peak season, HFRS vaccination and health education are promoted with farmers as the key groups.