A Late Devonian actinopterygian suggests high lineage survivorship across the end-Devonian mass extinction.

Many accounts of the early history of actinopterygians (ray-finned fishes) posit that the end-Devonian mass extinction had a major influence on their evolution. Existing phylogenies suggest this episode could have acted as a bottleneck, paring the early diversity of the group to a handful of survivors. This picture, coupled with increases in taxonomic and morphological diversity in the Carboniferous, contributes to a model of explosive post-extinction radiation. However, most actinopterygians from within a roughly 20-million year (Myr) window surrounding the extinction are poorly known, contributing to uncertainty about the meaning of these patterns. Here, we report an exceptionally preserved fossil from 7 Myr before the extinction that reveals unexpected anatomical features. Palaeoneiros clackorum gen. et sp. nov. nests within a clade of post-Devonian species and, in an expanded phylogenetic analysis, draws multiple lineages of Carboniferous actinopterygians into the Devonian. This suggests cryptic but extensive lineage diversification in the latest Devonian, followed by more conspicuous feeding and locomotor structure diversification in the Carboniferous. Our revised model matches more complex patterns of divergence, survival and diversification around the Devonian/Carboniferous boundary in other vertebrate clades. It also fundamentally recalibrates the onset of diversification early in the history of this major radiation.

Practical guidelines for Bayesian phylogenetic inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).

Phylogenetic estimation is, and has always been, a complex endeavor. Estimating a phylogenetic tree involves evaluating many possible solutions and possible evolutionary histories that could explain a set of observed data, typically by using a model of evolution. Modern statistical methods involve not just the estimation of a tree, but also solutions to more complex models involving fossil record information and other data sources. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a leading method for approximating the posterior distribution of parameters in a mathematical model. It is deployed in all Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation software. While many researchers use MCMC in phylogenetic analyses, interpreting results and diagnosing problems with MCMC remain vexing issues to many biologists. In this manuscript, we will offer an overview of how MCMC is used in Bayesian phylogenetic inference, with a particular emphasis on complex hierarchical models, such as the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model. We will discuss strategies to diagnose common MCMC problems and troubleshoot difficult analyses, in particular convergence issues. We will show how the study design, the choice of models and priors, but also technical features of the inference tools themselves can all be adjusted to obtain the best results. Finally, we will also discuss the unique challenges created by the incorporation of fossil information in phylogenetic inference, and present tips to address them.

Phylogenetic trees provide important information on the evolutionary relationships between organisms, as well as their diversification dynamics. Phylogenies are commonly built using Bayesian inference with MCMC, a powerful but also complex algorithm. This inference is implemented in software frameworks which propose a wide range of models and customization options. The amount of choices offered by these tools can be confusing for users, especially as many of these choices will affect the performance of the inference. This work is intended as a practical guide for preparing and troubleshooting a phylogenetic inference using the Bayesian MCMC method. First, we introduce the different components of this inference method, and how they are implemented in practice. We present the important factors which should be accounted for when designing a study using Bayesian phylogenetic inference with real data. We also list multiple issues which are frequently encountered by users when running the inference, and we provide advice on how to resolve these problems.

Where traditional extinction estimates fall flat: using novel cophylogenetic methods to estimate extinction risk in platyhelminths.

Today parasites comprise a huge proportion of living biodiversity and play a major role in shaping community structure. Given their ecological significance, parasite extinctions could result in massive cascading effects across ecosystems. It is therefore crucial that we have a way of estimating their extinction risk. Attempts to do this have often relied on information about host extinction risk, without explicitly incorporating information about the parasites. However, assuming an identical risk may be misleading. Here, we apply a novel metric to estimate the cophylogenetic extinction rate, Ec, of parasites with their hosts. This metric incorporates information about the evolutionary history of parasites and hosts that can be estimated using event-based cophylogenetic methods. To explore this metric, we investigated the use of different cophylogenetic methods to inform the Ec rate, based on the analysis of polystome parasites and their anuran hosts. We show using both parsimony- and model-based approaches that different methods can have a large effect on extinction risk estimation. Further, we demonstrate that model-based approaches offer greater potential to provide insights into cophylogenetic history and extinction risk.

The Occurrence Birth-Death Process for Combined-Evidence Analysis in Macroevolution and Epidemiology.

Phylodynamic models generally aim at jointly inferring phylogenetic relationships, model parameters, and more recently, the number of lineages through time, based on molecular sequence data. In the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution, these models can be used to estimate, respectively, the past number of infected individuals (prevalence) or the past number of species (paleodiversity) through time. Recent years have seen the development of "total-evidence" analyses, which combine molecular and morphological data from extant and past sampled individuals in a unified Bayesian inference framework. Even sampled individuals characterized only by their sampling time, that is, lacking morphological and molecular data, which we call occurrences, provide invaluable information to estimate the past number of lineages. Here, we present new methodological developments around the fossilized birth-death process enabling us to (i) incorporate occurrence data in the likelihood function; (ii) consider piecewise-constant birth, death, and sampling rates; and (iii) estimate the past number of lineages, with or without knowledge of the underlying tree. We implement our method in the RevBayes software environment, enabling its use along with a large set of models of molecular and morphological evolution, and validate the inference workflow using simulations under a wide range of conditions. We finally illustrate our new implementation using two empirical data sets stemming from the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution. In epidemiology, we infer the prevalence of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship, by taking into account jointly the case count record (occurrences) along with viral sequences for a fraction of infected individuals. In macroevolution, we infer the diversity trajectory of cetaceans using molecular and morphological data from extant taxa, morphological data from fossils, as well as numerous fossil occurrences. The joint modeling of occurrences and trees holds the promise to further bridge the gap between traditional epidemiology and pathogen genomics, as well as paleontology and molecular phylogenetics. [Birth-death model; epidemiology; fossils; macroevolution; occurrences; phylogenetics; skyline.].

Early cephalopod evolution clarified through Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

BACKGROUND: Despite the excellent fossil record of cephalopods, their early evolution is poorly understood. Different, partly incompatible phylogenetic hypotheses have been proposed in the past, which reflected individual author's opinions on the importance of certain characters but were not based on thorough cladistic analyses. At the same time, methods of phylogenetic inference have undergone substantial improvements. For fossil datasets, which typically only include morphological data, Bayesian inference and in particular the introduction of the fossilized birth-death model have opened new possibilities. Nevertheless, many tree topologies recovered from these new methods reflect large uncertainties, which have led to discussions on how to best summarize the information contained in the posterior set of trees. RESULTS: We present a large, newly compiled morphological character matrix of Cambrian and Ordovician cephalopods to conduct a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis and resolve existing controversies. Our results recover three major monophyletic groups, which correspond to the previously recognized Endoceratoidea, Multiceratoidea, and Orthoceratoidea, though comprising slightly different taxa. In addition, many Cambrian and Early Ordovician representatives of the Ellesmerocerida and Plectronocerida were recovered near the root. The Ellesmerocerida is para- and polyphyletic, with some of its members recovered among the Multiceratoidea and early Endoceratoidea. These relationships are robust against modifications of the dataset. While our trees initially seem to reflect large uncertainties, these are mainly a consequence of the way clade support is measured. We show that clade posterior probabilities and tree similarity metrics often underestimate congruence between trees, especially if wildcard taxa are involved. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide important insights into the earliest evolution of cephalopods and clarify evolutionary pathways. We provide a classification scheme that is based on a robust phylogenetic analysis. Moreover, we provide some general insights on the application of Bayesian phylogenetic inference on morphological datasets. We support earlier findings that quartet similarity metrics should be preferred over the Robinson-Foulds distance when higher-level phylogenetic relationships are of interest and propose that using a posteriori pruned maximum clade credibility trees help in assessing support for phylogenetic relationships among a set of relevant taxa, because they provide clade support values that better reflect the phylogenetic signal.

Paleozoic origins of cheilostome bryozoans and their parental care inferred by a new genome-skimmed phylogeny.

Phylogenetic relationships and the timing of evolutionary events are essential for understanding evolution on longer time scales. Cheilostome bryozoans are a group of ubiquitous, species-rich, marine colonial organisms with an excellent fossil record but lack phylogenetic relationships inferred from molecular data. We present genome-skimmed data for 395 cheilostomes and combine these with 315 published sequences to infer relationships and the timing of key events among c. 500 cheilostome species. We find that named cheilostome genera and species are phylogenetically coherent, rendering fossil or contemporary specimens readily delimited using only skeletal morphology. Our phylogeny shows that parental care in the form of brooding evolved several times independently but was never lost in cheilostomes. Our fossil calibration, robust to varied assumptions, indicates that the cheilostome lineage and parental care therein could have Paleozoic origins, much older than the first known fossil record of cheilostomes in the Late Jurassic.

Sex-Biased Dispersal Obscures Species Boundaries in Integrative Species Delimitation Approaches.

Accurate delimitation of species is crucial for a stable taxonomy, which provides the foundation for the study of evolutionary biology, ecology, and essentially all biological disciplines. Several approaches toward impartial and repeatable taxonomic practices are available but all existing methods have potentially unacceptable shortcomings. In particular, problems can arise when the underlying model assumptions are violated, for instance, in the presence of reduced gene flow. This is observed in the context of sex-biased dispersal, which is a common but underappreciated feature in many groups of organisms. Previously, simulations have indicated that sex-biased dispersal may lead to erroneous estimations of the true species numbers. However, this phenomenon has never been examined using empirical data. We evaluate the bias introduced by extreme female philopatry on a range of de novo [GMYC, PTP, ABGD, statistical parsimony, trinomial distribution of triplets model (tr2)] and validation (STACEY, iBPP) approaches to species delimitation in the scarab beetle genus Pachypus. Since female philopatry exhibited in this genus in particular can affect mitochondrial gene flow, we compared the results from analyses of single loci, mitochondrial loci, nuclear loci and combined data, as well as the performance of morphometric data as a secondary data source in a fully integrative Bayesian framework. Large overestimation of species numbers was observed across all analyses of combined and mitochondrial DNA data sets, suggesting specimens from nearly every sampling location as separate species. The use of nuclear data resulted in more reasonable estimations of species boundaries, which were largely supported by morphometrics of linear measurements, while geometric morphometrics of body outlines resulted in stronger splitting. Simulations of population divergence with migration, corresponding to the biology of Pachypus, showed that female philopatry strongly increases reciprocal monophyly of mitochondrial markers and may substantially contribute to over-splitting in species delimitation. Robust results recovered using nuclear DNA and morphological data nevertheless enabled us to reach novel conclusions about species boundaries in Pachypus. Our findings suggest that mitochondrial DNA will be less suited to species delimitation in many cases, in particular in the presence of sex-biased dispersal.

Closing the gap between palaeontological and neontological speciation and extinction rate estimates.

Measuring the pace at which speciation and extinction occur is fundamental to understanding the origin and evolution of biodiversity. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies of living species can provide independent estimates of speciation and extinction rates, but often produce strikingly divergent results. Despite its implications, the theoretical reasons for this discrepancy remain unknown. Here, we reveal a conceptual and methodological basis able to reconcile palaeontological and molecular evidence: discrepancies are driven by different implicit assumptions about the processes of speciation and species evolution in palaeontological and neontological analyses. We present the "birth-death chronospecies" model that clarifies the definition of speciation and extinction processes allowing for a coherent joint analysis of fossil and phylogenetic data. Using simulations and empirical analyses we demonstrate not only that this model explains much of the apparent incongruence between fossils and phylogenies, but that differences in rate estimates are actually informative about the prevalence of different speciation modes.

The fossilized birth-death model for the analysis of stratigraphic range data under different speciation modes.

A birth-death-sampling model gives rise to phylogenetic trees with samples from the past and the present. Interpreting "birth" as branching speciation, "death" as extinction, and "sampling" as fossil preservation and recovery, this model - also referred to as the fossilized birth-death (FBD) model - gives rise to phylogenetic trees on extant and fossil samples. The model has been mathematically analyzed and successfully applied to a range of datasets on different taxonomic levels, such as penguins, plants, and insects. However, the current mathematical treatment of this model does not allow for a group of temporally distinct fossil specimens to be assigned to the same species. In this paper, we provide a general mathematical FBD modeling framework that explicitly takes "stratigraphic ranges" into account, with a stratigraphic range being defined as the lineage interval associated with a single species, ranging through time from the first to the last fossil appearance of the species. To assign a sequence of fossil samples in the phylogenetic tree to the same species, i.e., to specify a stratigraphic range, we need to define the mode of speciation. We provide expressions to account for three common speciation modes: budding (or asymmetric) speciation, bifurcating (or symmetric) speciation, and anagenetic speciation. Our equations allow for flexible joint Bayesian analysis of paleontological and neontological data. Furthermore, our framework is directly applicable to epidemiology, where a stratigraphic range is the observed duration of infection of a single patient, "birth" via budding is transmission, "death" is recovery, and "sampling" is sequencing the pathogen of a patient. Thus, we present a model that allows for incorporation of multiple observations through time from a single patient.

Testing the molecular clock using mechanistic models of fossil preservation and molecular evolution.

Molecular sequence data provide information about relative times only, and fossil-based age constraints are the ultimate source of information about absolute times in molecular clock dating analyses. Thus, fossil calibrations are critical to molecular clock dating, but competing methods are difficult to evaluate empirically because the true evolutionary time scale is never known. Here, we combine mechanistic models of fossil preservation and sequence evolution in simulations to evaluate different approaches to constructing fossil calibrations and their impact on Bayesian molecular clock dating, and the relative impact of fossil versus molecular sampling. We show that divergence time estimation is impacted by the model of fossil preservation, sampling intensity and tree shape. The addition of sequence data may improve molecular clock estimates, but accuracy and precision is dominated by the quality of the fossil calibrations. Posterior means and medians are poor representatives of true divergence times; posterior intervals provide a much more accurate estimate of divergence times, though they may be wide and often do not have high coverage probability. Our results highlight the importance of increased fossil sampling and improved statistical approaches to generating calibrations, which should incorporate the non-uniform nature of ecological and temporal fossil species distributions.

Bayesian species delimitation in Pleophylla chafers (Coleoptera) - the importance of prior choice and morphology.

BACKGROUND: Defining species units can be challenging, especially during the earliest stages of speciation, when phylogenetic inference and delimitation methods may be compromised by incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or secondary gene flow. Integrative approaches to taxonomy, which combine molecular and morphological evidence, have the potential to be valuable in such cases. In this study we investigated the South African scarab beetle genus Pleophylla using data collected from 110 individuals of eight putative morphospecies. The dataset included four molecular markers (cox1, 16S, rrnL, ITS1) and morphometric data based on male genital morphology. We applied a suite of molecular and morphological approaches to species delimitation, and implemented a novel Bayesian approach in the software iBPP, which enables continuous morphological trait and molecular data to be combined. RESULTS: Traditional morphology-based species assignments were supported quantitatively by morphometric analyses of the male genitalia (eigenshape analysis, CVA, LDA). While the ITS1-based delineation was also broadly congruent with the morphospecies, the cox1 data resulted in over-splitting (GMYC modelling, haplotype networks, PTP, ABGD). In the most extreme case morphospecies shared identical haplotypes, which may be attributable to ILS based on statistical tests performed using the software JML. We found the strongest support for putative morphospecies based on phylogenetic evidence using the combined approach implemented in iBPP. However, support for putative species was sensitive to the use of alternative guide trees and alternative combinations of priors on the population size (θ) and rootage (τ 0 ) parameters, especially when the analysis was based on molecular or morphological data alone. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that continuous morphological trait data can be extremely valuable in assessing competing hypotheses to species delimitation. In particular, we show that the inclusion of morphological data in an integrative Bayesian framework can improve the resolution of inferred species units. However, we also demonstrate that this approach is extremely sensitive to guide tree and prior parameter choice. These parameters should be chosen with caution - if possible - based on independent empirical evidence, or careful sensitivity analyses should be performed to assess the robustness of results. Young species provide exemplars for investigating the mechanisms of speciation and for assessing the performance of tools used to delimit species on the basis of molecular and/or morphological evidence.

The Fossil Calibration Database-A New Resource for Divergence Dating.

Fossils provide the principal basis for temporal calibrations, which are critical to the accuracy of divergence dating analyses. Translating fossil data into minimum and maximum bounds for calibrations is the most important-often least appreciated-step of divergence dating. Properly justified calibrations require the synthesis of phylogenetic, paleontological, and geological evidence and can be difficult for nonspecialists to formulate. The dynamic nature of the fossil record (e.g., new discoveries, taxonomic revisions, updates of global or local stratigraphy) requires that calibration data be updated continually lest they become obsolete. Here, we announce the Fossil Calibration Database (http://fossilcalibrations.org), a new open-access resource providing vetted fossil calibrations to the scientific community. Calibrations accessioned into this database are based on individual fossil specimens and follow best practices for phylogenetic justification and geochronological constraint. The associated Fossil Calibration Series, a calibration-themed publication series at Palaeontologia Electronica, will serve as a key pipeline for peer-reviewed calibrations to enter the database.

Calibration uncertainty in molecular dating analyses: there is no substitute for the prior evaluation of time priors.

Calibration is the rate-determining step in every molecular clock analysis and, hence, considerable effort has been expended in the development of approaches to distinguish good from bad calibrations. These can be categorized into a priori evaluation of the intrinsic fossil evidence, and a posteriori evaluation of congruence through cross-validation. We contrasted these competing approaches and explored the impact of different interpretations of the fossil evidence upon Bayesian divergence time estimation. The results demonstrate that a posteriori approaches can lead to the selection of erroneous calibrations. Bayesian posterior estimates are also shown to be extremely sensitive to the probabilistic interpretation of temporal constraints. Furthermore, the effective time priors implemented within an analysis differ for individual calibrations when employed alone and in differing combination with others. This compromises the implicit assumption of all calibration consistency methods, that the impact of an individual calibration is the same when used alone or in unison with others. Thus, the most effective means of establishing the quality of fossil-based calibrations is through a priori evaluation of the intrinsic palaeontological, stratigraphic, geochronological and phylogenetic data. However, effort expended in establishing calibrations will not be rewarded unless they are implemented faithfully in divergence time analyses.

Exploring uncertainty in the calibration of the molecular clock.

Calibration is a critical step in every molecular clock analysis but it has been the least considered. Bayesian approaches to divergence time estimation make it possible to incorporate the uncertainty in the degree to which fossil evidence approximates the true time of divergence. We explored the impact of different approaches in expressing this relationship, using arthropod phylogeny as an example for which we established novel calibrations. We demonstrate that the parameters distinguishing calibration densities have a major impact upon the prior and posterior of the divergence times, and it is critically important that users evaluate the joint prior distribution of divergence times used by their dating programmes. We illustrate a procedure for deriving calibration densities in Bayesian divergence dating through the use of soft maximum constraints.

Synthesizing and databasing fossilcalibrations: divergencedating and beyond

Divergence dating studies, which combine temporal data from the fossil record with branch length data from molecular phylogenetic trees, represent a rapidly expanding approach to understanding the history of life. National Evolutionary Synthesis Center hosted the first Fossil Calibrations Working Group (3–6 March, 2011, Durham, NC, USA), bringing together palaeontologists, molecular evolutionists and bioinformatics experts to present perspectives from disciplines that generate, model and use fossil calibration data. Presentations and discussions focused on channels for interdisciplinary collaboration, best practices for justifying, reporting and using fossil calibrations and roadblocks to synthesis of palaeontological and molecular data. Bioinformatics solutions were proposed, with the primary objective being a new database for vetted fossil calibrations with linkages to existing resources, targeted for a 2012 launch.

Establishing a time-scale for plant evolution.

• Plants have utterly transformed the planet, but testing hypotheses of causality requires a reliable time-scale for plant evolution. While clock methods have been extensively developed, less attention has been paid to the correct interpretation and appropriate implementation of fossil data. • We constructed 17 calibrations, consisting of minimum constraints and soft maximum constraints, for divergences between model representatives of the major land plant lineages. Using a data set of seven plastid genes, we performed a cross-validation analysis to determine the consistency of the calibrations. Six molecular clock analyses were then conducted, one with the original calibrations, and others exploring the impact on divergence estimates of changing maxima at basal nodes, and prior probability densities within calibrations. • Cross-validation highlighted Tracheophyta and Euphyllophyta calibrations as inconsistent, either because their soft maxima were overly conservative or because of undetected rate variation. Molecular clock analyses yielded estimates ranging from 568-815 million yr before present (Ma) for crown embryophytes and from 175-240 Ma for crown angiosperms. • We reject both a post-Jurassic origin of angiosperms and a post-Cambrian origin of land plants. Our analyses also suggest that the establishment of the major embryophyte lineages occurred at a much slower tempo than suggested in most previous studies. These conclusions are entirely compatible with current palaeobotanical data, although not necessarily with their interpretation by palaeobotanists.

Synthesizing and databasing fossil calibrations: divergence dating and beyond.

Divergence dating studies, which combine temporal data from the fossil record with branch length data from molecular phylogenetic trees, represent a rapidly expanding approach to understanding the history of life. National Evolutionary Synthesis Center hosted the first Fossil Calibrations Working Group (3-6 March, 2011, Durham, NC, USA), bringing together palaeontologists, molecular evolutionists and bioinformatics experts to present perspectives from disciplines that generate, model and use fossil calibration data. Presentations and discussions focused on channels for interdisciplinary collaboration, best practices for justifying, reporting and using fossil calibrations and roadblocks to synthesis of palaeontological and molecular data. Bioinformatics solutions were proposed, with the primary objective being a new database for vetted fossil calibrations with linkages to existing resources, targeted for a 2012 launch.