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OBJECTIVES: Obeticholic acid (OCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) was conditionally approved in the phase 3 POISE trial. The COBALT confirmatory trial assessed whether clinical outcomes in PBC patients improve with OCA therapy. METHODS: Patients randomized to OCA (5-10 mg) were compared with placebo (randomized controlled trial [RCT]) or external control (EC). The primary composite endpoint was time to death, liver transplant, model for end-stage liver disease score ≥15, uncontrolled ascites, or hospitalization for hepatic decompensation. A prespecified propensity score-weighted EC group was derived from a US healthcare claims database. RESULTS: In the RCT, the primary endpoint occurred in 28.6% of OCA (n=168) and 28.9% of placebo patients (n=166; intent-to-treat [ITT] analysis hazard ratio [HR]=1.01, 95% CI=0.68-1.51), but functional unblinding and crossover to commercial therapy occurred, especially in the placebo arm. Correcting for these using inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) and as-treated analyses shifted the HR to favor OCA. In the EC (n=1051), the weighted primary endpoint occurred in 10.1% of OCA and 21.5% of non-OCA patients (HR=0.39; 95% CI=0.22-0.69; P=0.001). No new safety signals were identified in the RCT. CONCLUSIONS: Functional unblinding and treatment crossover, particularly in the placebo arm, confounded the ITT estimate of outcomes associated with OCA in the RCT. Comparison with the real-world EC showed that OCA treatment significantly reduced the risk of negative clinical outcomes. These analyses demonstrate the value of EC data in confirmatory trials and suggest that treatment with OCA improves clinical outcomes in patients with PBC.
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Drug development has historically relied on phase I-III clinical trials including participants sharing the same disease. However, drug development has evolved as the discovery of mechanistic drivers of disease demonstrated that the same therapeutic target may provide benefits across different diseases. A basket trial condenses evaluation of one therapy among multiple related diseases into a single trial and presents an opportunity to borrow information across them rather than viewing each in isolation. Borrowing is a statistical tool but requires a foundation of clinical and therapeutic mechanistic justification. We review the Bayesian borrowing approach, including its assumptions, and provide a framework for how this approach can be evaluated for successful use in a basket trial for drug development.
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We propose a Cross-validated ADaptive ENrichment design (CADEN) in which a trial population is enriched with a subpopulation of patients who are predicted to benefit from the treatment more than an average patient (the sensitive group). This subpopulation is found using a risk score constructed from the baseline (potentially high-dimensional) information about patients. The design incorporates an early stopping rule for futility. Simulation studies are used to assess the properties of CADEN against the original (non-enrichment) cross-validated risk scores (CVRS) design which constructs a risk score at the end of the trial. We show that when there exists a sensitive group of patients, CADEN achieves a higher power and a reduction in the expected sample size compared to the CVRS design. We illustrate the application of the design in two real clinical trials. We conclude that the new design offers improved statistical efficiency over the existing non-enrichment method, as well as increased benefit to patients. The method has been implemented in an R package caden.
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Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Tamaño de la Muestra , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Simulación por Computador , Selección de PacienteRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: An objective, physiological measurement taken using a medical device may reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers through earlier detection of problems signs before visual signs appear. Research in this field is hampered by variations in clinical practice and patient-level confounders. AIM: The authors outline key considerations for designing a protocol for a study to assess the efficacy and safety of a prognostic medical device in reducing pressure ulcer incidence in a hospital, including comparators, randomisation, sample size, ethics and practical issues. METHOD: Key issues relating to methodology and ethics are considered alongside a theoretical protocol, which could support future researchers in wound care trials. RESULTS: A prospective, three-armed, multi-centre, stratified cluster-randomised controlled trial is proposed. The third arm is recommended as it is expected that patients will need to be moved for the medical device to be used and repositioning is a preventive strategy. A minimum of 16 200 patients in 33 wards would needed to be recruited to achieve statistical significance. Ethical considerations in terms of consent or assent need to be considered. CONCLUSION: The hypothetical study designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a diagnostic or prognostic medical device in reducing pressure ulcer incidence in secondary care, while accounting for biases, would require large sample sizes and involves risks of inter-operator and inter-device reliability, heterogeneity of users and the vague clinical interpretation of device results. Robust research in this field has the potential to influence or change policy and practice relating to the prevention of pressure ulcers in secondary care.
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Úlcera por Presión , Proyectos de Investigación , Úlcera por Presión/prevención & control , Úlcera por Presión/diagnóstico , Humanos , Estudios Prospectivos , Pronóstico , Diagnóstico PrecozRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Severe Graves' disease is a life-changing condition with poor outcomes from currently available treatments. It is caused by directly pathogenic thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor-stimulating antibodies (TRAb), which are secreted from plasma cells. The human anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody daratumumab was developed to target plasma cells which express high levels of CD38, and is currently licensed for treatment of the plasma cell malignancy, myeloma. However, it can also deplete benign plasma cells with the potential to reduce TRAb and alter the natural history of severe Graves' disease. This study aims to establish proof of concept that daratumumab has efficacy in patients with severe Graves' disease and will provide important data to inform a choice of dosing regimen for subsequent trials. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Graves-PCD trial aims to determine if daratumumab modulates the humoral immune response in patients with severe Graves' disease, and if so, over what time period, and to find an optimal dose. It is a single-blinded, randomised, dose-finding, adaptive trial using four different doses of daratumumab or placebo in 30 adult patients. Part 1 of the trial is dose-finding and, following an interim analysis, in part 2, the remaining patients will be randomised between the chosen dose(s) from the interim analysis or placebo. The primary outcome is the percentage change in serum TRAb from baseline to 12 weeks. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial received a favourable ethical opinion from London-Hampstead Research Ethics Committee (reference 21/LO/0449). The results of this trial will be disseminated at international meetings, in the peer-reviewed literature and through partner patient group newsletters and presentations at patient education events. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN81162400.
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Anticuerpos Monoclonales , Enfermedad de Graves , Humanos , Enfermedad de Graves/tratamiento farmacológico , Anticuerpos Monoclonales/uso terapéutico , Anticuerpos Monoclonales/administración & dosificación , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Células Plasmáticas/efectos de los fármacos , Método Simple Ciego , Adulto , Masculino , Femenino , Relación Dosis-Respuesta a DrogaRESUMEN
Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases often affect individuals of childbearing age. The incidence and prevalence of rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases is rising. More pregnancies in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases are anticipated and some rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases are associated with pregnancy complications (eg, miscarriages, fetal deaths, preterm births, and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy). Despite the need to understand the use of drugs to treat rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases in pregnancy, clinical trials in pregnancy are rare, therapeutics in pregnancy are understudied, and pregnant individuals are routinely excluded as premarketing trial participants. Data on the effectiveness and safety of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs are most often based on post-marketing observational data. Observational studies assessing the bidirectional relationship between rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases and pregnancy, as well as interventional studies of treatments during pregnancy, are scarce. Historical reluctance to perform studies in what was deemed an at-risk group persists in pharmaceutical companies, regulatory bodies, and ethics boards. Additionally, patients must be engaged partners, which requires trust that the research respects the needs and interests of the patient and complies with the rules intended to protect the pregnant person and the fetus from harm. In this Series paper, we share challenges we have encountered in conducting prospective cohort studies and interventional trials of postmarketing approved medications, assessing pregnancy specific outcomes in pregnant women with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases in the EU, the UK, and the USA. We discuss the changing landscape around trials in pregnancy and present possible solutions to our challenges.
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Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Complicaciones del Embarazo , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Embarazo , Femenino , Complicaciones del Embarazo/tratamiento farmacológico , Complicaciones del Embarazo/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Enfermedades Reumáticas/tratamiento farmacológico , Enfermedades Musculoesqueléticas/tratamiento farmacológico , Enfermedades Musculoesqueléticas/terapia , Antirreumáticos/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Long-term survival after lung transplantation is limited compared with other organ transplants. The main cause is development of progressive immune-mediated damage to the lung allograft. This damage, which can develop via multiple immune pathways, is captured under the umbrella term chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). Despite the availability of powerful immunosuppressive drugs, there are presently no treatments proven to reverse or reliably halt the loss of lung function caused by CLAD. The aim of the E-CLAD UK trial is to determine whether the addition of immunomodulatory therapy, in the form of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP), to standard care is more efficacious at stabilising lung function in CLAD compared with standard care alone. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: E-CLAD UK is a Phase II clinical trial of an investigational medicinal product (Methoxsalen) delivered to a buffy coat prepared via an enclosed ECP circuit. Target recruitment is 90 bilateral lung transplant patients identified as having CLAD and being treated at one of the five UK adult lung transplant centres. Participants will be randomised 1:1 to intervention plus standard of care, or standard of care alone. Intervention will comprise nine ECP cycles spread over 20 weeks, each course involving two treatments of ECP on consecutive days. All participants will be followed up for a period of 24 weeks.The primary outcome is lung function stabilisation derived from change in forced expiratory volume in one second and forced vital capacity at 12 and 24 weeks compared with baseline at study entry. Other parameters include change in exercise capacity, health-related quality of life and safety. A mechanistic study will seek to identify molecular or cellular markers linked to treatment response and qualitative interviews will explore patient experiences of CLAD and the ECP treatment.A patient and public advisory group is integral to the trial from design to implementation, developing material to support the consent process and interview materials. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The East Midlands-Derby Research Ethics Committee has provided ethical approval (REC 22/EM/0218). Dissemination will be via publications, patient-friendly summaries and presentation at scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: EudraCT number 2022-002659-20; ISRCTN 10615985.
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Trasplante de Pulmón , Fotoféresis , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Aloinjertos , Rechazo de Injerto , Pulmón/fisiopatología , Metoxaleno/uso terapéutico , Estudios Multicéntricos como Asunto , Fotoféresis/métodos , Disfunción Primaria del Injerto/terapia , Estudios Prospectivos , Calidad de Vida , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Resultado del Tratamiento , Reino UnidoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Characterised by chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) symptoms including diarrhoea, abdominal pain and fatigue can significantly impact patient's quality of life. Therapeutic developments in the last 20 years have revolutionised treatment. However, clinical trials and real-world data show primary non-response rates up to 40%. A significant challenge is an inability to predict which treatment will benefit individual patients.Current understanding of IBD pathogenesis implicates complex interactions between host genetics and the gut microbiome. Most cohorts studying the gut microbiota to date have been underpowered, examined single treatments and produced heterogeneous results. Lack of cross-treatment comparisons and well-powered independent replication cohorts hampers the ability to infer real-world utility of predictive signatures.IBD-RESPONSE will use multi-omic data to create a predictive tool for treatment response. Future patient benefit may include development of biomarker-based treatment stratification or manipulation of intestinal microbial targets. IBD-RESPONSE and downstream studies have the potential to improve quality of life, reduce patient risk and reduce expenditure on ineffective treatments. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective, multicentre, observational study will identify and validate a predictive model for response to advanced IBD therapies, incorporating gut microbiome, metabolome, single-cell transcriptome, human genome, dietary and clinical data. 1325 participants commencing advanced therapies will be recruited from ~40 UK sites. Data will be collected at baseline, week 14 and week 54. The primary outcome is week 14 clinical response. Secondary outcomes include clinical remission, loss of response in week 14 responders, corticosteroid-free response/remission, time to treatment escalation and change in patient-reported outcome measures. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the Wales Research Ethics Committee 5 (ref: 21/WA/0228). Recruitment is ongoing. Following study completion, results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific meetings. Publications will be summarised at www.ibd-response.co.uk. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN96296121.
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Colitis Ulcerosa , Enfermedad de Crohn , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino , Humanos , Colitis Ulcerosa/terapia , Enfermedad de Crohn/tratamiento farmacológico , Enfermedades Inflamatorias del Intestino/tratamiento farmacológico , Estudios Multicéntricos como Asunto , Estudios Observacionales como Asunto , Medicina de Precisión , Estudios Prospectivos , Calidad de VidaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: International trials can be challenging to operationalise due to incompatibilities between country-specific policies and infrastructures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the operational complexities of conducting international trials and identify potential solutions for overcoming them. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase and Health Management Information Consortium were searched from 2006 to 30 January 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: All studies reporting operational challenges (eg, site selection, trial management, intervention management, data management) of conducting international trials were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Search results were independently screened by at least two reviewers and data were extracted into a proforma. RESULTS: 38 studies (35 RCTs, 2 reports and 1 qualitative study) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median sample size was 1202 (IQR 332-4056) and median number of sites was 40 (IQR 13-78). 88.6% of studies had an academic sponsor and 80% were funded through government sources. Operational complexities were particularly reported during trial set-up due to lack of harmonisation in regulatory approvals and in relation to sponsorship structure, with associated budgetary impacts. Additional challenges included site selection, staff training, lengthy contract negotiations, site monitoring, communication, trial oversight, recruitment, data management, drug procurement and distribution, pharmacy involvement and biospecimen processing and transport. CONCLUSIONS: International collaborative trials are valuable in cases where recruitment may be difficult, diversifying participation and applicability. However, multiple operational and regulatory challenges are encountered when implementing a trial in multiple countries. Careful planning and communication between trials units and investigators, with an emphasis on establishing adequately resourced cross-border sponsorship structures and regulatory approvals, may help to overcome these barriers and realise the benefits of the approach. OPEN SCIENCE FRAMEWORK REGISTRATION NUMBER: osf-registrations-yvtjb-v1.
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Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Humanos , Proyectos de Investigación , Cooperación InternacionalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The nature of the pathway from conduct disorder (CD) in adolescence to antisocial behavior in adulthood has been debated and the role of certain mediators remains unclear. One perspective is that CD forms part of a general psychopathology dimension, playing a central role in the developmental trajectory. Impairment in reflective functioning (RF), i.e., the capacity to understand one's own and others' mental states, may relate to CD, psychopathology, and aggression. Here, we characterized the structure of psychopathology in adult male-offenders and its role, along with RF, in mediating the relationship between CD in their adolescence and current aggression. METHODS: A secondary analysis of pre-treatment data from 313 probation-supervised offenders was conducted, and measures of CD symptoms, general and specific psychopathology factors, RF, and aggression were evaluated through clinical interviews and questionnaires. RESULTS: Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a bifactor model best fitted the sample's psychopathology structure, including a general psychopathology factor (p factor) and five specific factors: internalizing, disinhibition, detachment, antagonism, and psychoticism. The structure of RF was fitted to the data using a one-factor model. According to our mediation model, CD significantly predicted the p factor, which was positively linked to RF impairments, resulting in increased aggression. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the critical role of a transdiagnostic approach provided by RF and general psychopathology in explaining the link between CD and aggression. Furthermore, they underscore the potential utility of treatments focusing on RF, such as mentalization-based treatment, in mitigating aggression in offenders with diverse psychopathologies.
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Approved therapies for the treatment of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) mediate pulmonary vascular vasodilatation by targeting distinct biological pathways. International guidelines recommend that patients with an inadequate response to dual therapy with a phosphodiesterase type-5 inhibitor (PDE5i) and endothelin receptor antagonist (ERA), are recommended to either intensify oral therapy by adding a selective prostacyclin receptor (IP) agonist (selexipag), or switching from PDE5i to a soluble guanylate-cyclase stimulator (sGCS; riociguat). The clinical equipoise between these therapeutic choices provides the opportunity for evaluation of individualized therapeutic effects. Traditionally, invasive/hospital-based investigations are required to comprehensively assess disease severity and demonstrate treatment benefits. Regulatory-approved, minimally invasive monitors enable equivalent measurements to be obtained while patients are at home. In this 2 × 2 randomized crossover trial, patients with PAH established on guideline-recommended dual therapy and implanted with CardioMEMS™ (a wireless pulmonary artery sensor) and ConfirmRx™ (an insertable cardiac rhythm monitor), will receive ERA + sGCS, or PDEi + ERA + IP agonist. The study will evaluate clinical efficacy via established clinical investigations and remote monitoring technologies, with remote data relayed through regulatory-approved online clinical portals. The primary aim will be the change in right ventricular systolic volume measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from baseline to maximal tolerated dose with each therapy. Using data from MRI and other outcomes, including hemodynamics, physical activity, physiological measurements, quality of life, and side effect reporting, we will determine whether remote technology facilitates early evaluation of clinical efficacy, and investigate intra-patient efficacy of the two treatment approaches.
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In the UK, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency consulted on proposals "to improve and strengthen the UK clinical trials legislation to help us make the UK the best place to research and develop safe and innovative medicines". The purpose of the consultation was to help finalise the proposals and contribute to the drafting of secondary legislation. We discussed these proposals as members of the Trials Methodology Research Partnership Adaptive Designs Working Group, which is jointly funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health and Care Research. Two topics arose frequently in the discussion: the emphasis on legislation, and the absence of questions on data sharing. It is our opinion that the proposals rely heavily on legislation to change practice. However, clinical trials are heterogeneous, and as a result some trials will struggle to comply with all of the proposed legislation. Furthermore, adaptive design clinical trials are even more heterogeneous than their non-adaptive counterparts, and face more challenges. Consequently, it is possible that increased legislation could have a greater negative impact on adaptive designs than non-adaptive designs. Overall, we are sceptical that the introduction of legislation will achieve the desired outcomes, with some exceptions. Meanwhile the topic of data sharing - making anonymised individual-level clinical trial data available to other investigators for further use - is entirely absent from the proposals and the consultation in general. However, as an aspect of the wider concept of open science and reproducible research, data sharing is an increasingly important aspect of clinical trials. The benefits of data sharing include faster innovation, improved surveillance of drug safety and effectiveness and decreasing participant exposure to unnecessary risk. There are already a number of UK-focused documents that discuss and encourage data sharing, for example, the Concordat on Open Research Data and the Medical Research Council's Data Sharing Policy. We strongly suggest that data sharing should be the norm rather than the exception, and hope that the forthcoming proposals on clinical trials invite discussion on this important topic.
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Difusión de la Información , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Atención a la SaludRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Bronchiectasis is a long-term lung condition, with dilated bronchi, chronic inflammation, chronic infection and acute exacerbations. Recurrent exacerbations are associated with poorer clinical outcomes such as increased severity of lung disease, further exacerbations, hospitalisations, reduced quality of life and increased risk of death. Despite an increasing prevalence of bronchiectasis, there is a critical lack of high-quality studies into the disease and no treatments specifically approved for its treatment. This trial aims to establish whether inhaled dual bronchodilators (long acting beta agonist (LABA) and long acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)) taken as either a stand-alone therapy or in combination with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) reduce the number of exacerbations of bronchiectasis requiring treatment with antibiotics during a 12 month treatment period. METHODS: This is a multicentre, pragmatic, double-blind, randomised controlled trial, incorporating an internal pilot and embedded economic evaluation. 600 adult patients (≥18 years) with CT confirmed bronchiectasis will be recruited and randomised to either inhaled dual therapy (LABA+LAMA), triple therapy (LABA+LAMA+ICS) or matched placebo, in a 2:2:1 ratio (respectively). The primary outcome is the number of protocol defined exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics during the 12 month treatment period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Favourable ethical opinion was received from the North East-Newcastle and North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 21/NE/0020). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications, at national and international conferences, in the NIHR Health Technology Assessments journal and to participants and the public (using lay language). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15988757.
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Bronquiectasia , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica , Adulto , Humanos , Broncodilatadores/uso terapéutico , Calidad de Vida , Agonistas de Receptores Adrenérgicos beta 2 , Antagonistas Muscarínicos , Bronquiectasia/tratamiento farmacológico , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/tratamiento farmacológico , Administración por Inhalación , Quimioterapia Combinada , Corticoesteroides/uso terapéutico , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Estudios Multicéntricos como AsuntoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Observational studies represent an alternative to estimate real-world causal effects in the absence of available randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Target trial emulation is a framework for the application of RCT design principles to emulate a hypothetical open-label RCT (the hypothetical target trial) using existing observational data as the primary data source as opposed to the prospective recruitment and measurement of randomised units. The aim of this systematic review is to investigate the practices of studies applying the target trial emulation framework to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will systematically search in Medline (via Ovid), Embase (via Ovid, entries from medRxiv are included), PsycINFO (via Ovid), SCOPUS, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, the ISRCTN registry and ClinicalTrials.gov for all study reports and protocols which used the trial emulation framework (without time restriction). We will extract information concerning study design, data source, analysis, results, interpretation and dissemination. Two reviewers will perform study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Disagreements between reviewers will be resolved by a third reviewer. A narrative approach will be used to synthesise and report qualitative and quantitative data. Reporting of the review will be informed by Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidance (PRISMA). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required as it is a protocol for a systematic review. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.
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Narración , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Revisiones Sistemáticas como Asunto , Metaanálisis como AsuntoRESUMEN
Basket trials are a novel clinical trial design in which a single intervention is investigated in multiple patient subgroups, or "baskets." They offer the opportunity to share information between subgroups, potentially increasing power to detect treatment effects. Basket trials offer several advantages over running a series of separate trials, including reduced sample sizes, increased efficiency, and reduced costs. Primarily, basket trials have been undertaken in Phase II oncology settings, but could be a promising design in other areas where a shared underlying biological mechanism drives different diseases. One such area is chronic aging-related diseases. However, trials in this area frequently have longitudinal outcomes, and therefore suitable methods are needed to share information in this setting. In this paper, we extend three Bayesian borrowing methods for a basket design with continuous longitudinal endpoints. We demonstrate our methods on a real-world dataset and in a simulation study where the aim is to detect positive basketwise treatment effects. Methods are compared with standalone analysis of each basket without borrowing. Our results confirm that methods that share information can improve power to detect positive treatment effects and increase precision over independent analysis in many scenarios. In highly heterogeneous scenarios, there is a trade-off between increased power and increased risk of type I errors. Our proposed methods for basket trials with continuous longitudinal outcomes aim to facilitate their applicability in the area of aging related diseases. Choice of method should be made based on trial priorities and the expected basketwise distribution of treatment effects.
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Oncología Médica , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Simulación por Computador , Oncología Médica/métodos , Tamaño de la MuestraRESUMEN
Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments under a single master protocol, where new treatment arms are added to the trial over time. Given the multiple treatment comparisons, there is the potential for inflation of the overall type I error rate, which is complicated by the fact that the hypotheses are tested at different times and are not necessarily pre-specified. Online error rate control methodology provides a possible solution to the problem of multiplicity for platform trials where a relatively large number of hypotheses are expected to be tested over time. In the online multiple hypothesis testing framework, hypotheses are tested one-by-one over time, where at each time-step an analyst decides whether to reject the current null hypothesis without knowledge of future tests but based solely on past decisions. Methodology has recently been developed for online control of the false discovery rate as well as the familywise error rate (FWER). In this article, we describe how to apply online error rate control to the platform trial setting, present extensive simulation results, and give some recommendations for the use of this new methodology in practice. We show that the algorithms for online error rate control can have a substantially lower FWER than uncorrected testing, while still achieving noticeable gains in power when compared with the use of a Bonferroni correction. We also illustrate how online error rate control would have impacted a currently ongoing platform trial.
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Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Simulación por ComputadorRESUMEN
Background: Iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is the leading cause of years lost to disability in most sub-Saharan African countries and is especially common in young children. The IHAT-GUT trial assessed the efficacy and safety of a novel nano iron supplement, which is a dietary ferritin analogue termed iron hydroxide adipate tartrate (IHAT), for the treatment of IDA in children under 3 years of age. Methods: In this single-country, randomised, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled, non-inferiority Phase II study in The Gambia, children 6-35 months with IDA (7≤Hb < 11 g/dL and ferritin<30 µg/L) were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive either IHAT, ferrous sulphate (FeSO4) or placebo daily for 3 months (85 days). The daily iron dose was 12.5 mg Fe equivalent for FeSO4 and the estimated dose with comparable iron-bioavailability for IHAT (20 mg Fe). The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of haemoglobin response at day 85 and correction of iron deficiency. The non-inferiority margin was 0.1 absolute difference in response probability. The primary safety endpoint was moderate-severe diarrhoea analysed as incidence density and prevalence over the 3 months intervention. Secondary endpoints reported herein include hospitalisation, acute respiratory infection, malaria, treatment failures, iron handling markers, inflammatory markers, longitudinal prevalence of diarrhoea and incidence density of bloody diarrhoea. Main analyses were per-protocol (PP) and intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses. This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02941081). Findings: Between Nov 2017 and Nov 2018, 642 children were randomised into the study (214 per group) and included in the ITT analysis, the PP population included 582 children. A total of 50/177 (28.2%) children in the IHAT group achieved the primary efficacy endpoint, as compared with 42/190 (22.1%) in the FeSO4 group (OR 1.39, 80% CI 1.01-1.91, PP population) and with 2/186 (1.1%) in the placebo group. Diarrhoea prevalence was similar between groups, with 40/189 (21.2%) children in the IHAT group developing at least one episode of moderate-severe diarrhoea over the 85 days intervention, compared with 47/198 (23.7%) in the FeSO4 group (OR 1.18, 80% CI 0.86-1.62) and 40/195 (20.5%) in the placebo group (OR 0.96, 80% CI 0.7-1.33, PP population). Incidence density of moderate-severe diarrhoea was 2.66 in the IHAT group and 3.42 in the FeSO4 group (RR 0.76, 80% CI 0.59-0.99, CC-ITT population).There were 143/211 (67.8%) children with adverse events (AEs) in the IHAT group, 146/212 (68.9%) in the FeSO4 group and 143/214 (66.8%) in the placebo group. There were overall 213 diarrhoea-related AEs; 35 (28.5%) cases reported in the IHAT group compared with 51 (41.5%) cases in the FeSO4 group and 37 (30.1%) cases in the placebo group. Interpretation: In this first Phase II study conducted in young children with IDA, IHAT showed sufficient non-inferiority compared to standard-of-care FeSO4, in terms of ID correction and haemoglobin response, to warrant a definitive Phase III trial. In addition, IHAT had lower incidence of moderate-severe diarrhoea than FeSO4, with no increased adverse events in comparison with placebo. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1140952).