Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic.

The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals.

Background: The ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sought to describe the infectious disease risks faced by Venezuelan nationals and assess the international mobility patterns of the migrant population. Methods: We synthesized data on recent infectious disease events in Venezuela and among international migrants from Venezuela, as well as on current country of residence among the migrant population. We used passenger-level itinerary data from the International Air Transport Association to evaluate trends in outbound air travel from Venezuela over time. We used two parameter-free mobility models, the radiation and impedance models, to estimate the expected population flows from Venezuelan cities to other major Latin American and Caribbean cities. Results: Outbreaks of measles, diphtheria and malaria have been reported across Venezuela and other diseases, such as HIV and tuberculosis, are resurgent. Changes in migration in response to the crisis are apparent, with an increase in Venezuelan nationals living abroad, despite an overall decline in the number of outbound air passengers. The two models predicted different mobility patterns, but both highlighted the importance of Colombian cities as destinations for migrants and also showed that some migrants are expected to travel large distances. Despite the large distances that migrants may travel internationally, outbreaks associated with Venezuelan migrants have occurred primarily in countries proximate to Venezuela. Conclusions: Understanding where international migrants are relocating is critical, given the association between human mobility and the spread of infectious diseases. In data-limited situations, simple models can be useful for providing insights into population mobility and may help identify areas likely to receive a large number of migrants.

Projected Zika Virus Importation and Subsequent Ongoing Transmission after Travel to the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games - Country-Specific Assessment, July 2016.

Zika virus belongs to the genus Flavivirus of the family Flaviviridae; it is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of an infected Aedes species mosquito (e.g., Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) (1). Zika virus has been identified as a cause of congenital microcephaly and other serious brain defects (2). As of June 30, 2016, CDC had issued travel notices for 49 countries and U.S. territories across much of the Western hemisphere (3), including Brazil, where the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games (Games of the XXXI Olympiad, also known as Rio 2016; Games) will be hosted in Rio de Janeiro in August and September 2016. During the Games, mosquito-borne Zika virus transmission is expected to be low because August and September are winter months in Brazil, when cooler and drier weather typically reduces mosquito populations (4). CDC conducted a risk assessment to predict those countries susceptible to ongoing Zika virus transmission resulting from introduction by a single traveler to the Games. Whereas all countries are at risk for travel-associated importation of Zika virus, CDC estimated that 19 countries currently not reporting Zika outbreaks have the environmental conditions and population susceptibility to sustain mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus if a case were imported from infection at the Games. For 15 of these 19 countries, travel to Rio de Janeiro during the Games is not estimated to increase substantially the level of risk above that incurred by the usual aviation travel baseline for these countries. The remaining four countries, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Yemen, are unique in that they do not have a substantial number of travelers to any country with local Zika virus transmission, except for anticipated travel to the Games. These four countries will be represented by a projected, combined total of 19 athletes (plus a projected delegation of about 60 persons), a tiny fraction of the 350,000-500,000 visitors expected at the Games.* Overall travel volume to the Games represents a very small fraction (<0.25%) of the total estimated 2015 travel volume to Zika-affected countries,(†) highlighting the unlikely scenario that Zika importation would be solely attributable to travel to the Games. To prevent Zika virus infection and its complications among athletes and visitors to the Games and importation of Zika virus into countries that could sustain local transmission, pregnant women should not travel to the Games, mosquito bites should be avoided while traveling and for 3 weeks after returning home, and measures should be taken to prevent sexual transmission (Box).