RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Nearly half of the world's population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010-2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010-2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0%-65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-17.7). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics.
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Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/sangre , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Perú/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Estudios Prospectivos , Recurrencia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. METHODS: We studied 10 years (2000-2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. FINDINGS: Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007) then DENV-4 (2008-2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of â¼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. CONCLUSIONS: Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.
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Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Dengue/virología , Animales , Culicidae , Virus del Dengue , Humanos , Incidencia , Perú/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año , Tiempo (Meteorología)RESUMEN
Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes vexans Meigen are two of the most abundant mosquitoes in Bernalillo County, New Mexico, USA. In this study, a polymerase chain reaction based methodology was used to identify the sources of blood meals taken by these two species. Ae. vexans was found to take a large proportion of its meals from mammals. Although less specific in terms of its blood meal preferences, Cx. quinquefasciatus was found to feed more commonly on birds. The results for Ae. vexans are similar to those reported for this species in other parts of their geographic range. Cx. quinquefasciatus appears to be more variable in terms of its host feeding under different environmental or seasonal circumstances. The implications of these results for arbovirus transmission are discussed.