Stop, in the Name of COVID! Using Social Media Data to Estimate the Effects of COVID-19-Related Travel Restrictions on Migration.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Organization for Migration has postulated that international migrant stocks fell short of their pre-pandemic projections by nearly 2 million as a result of travel restrictions. However, this decline is not testable with migration data from traditional sources. Key migration stakeholders have called for using data from alternative sources, including social media, to fill these gaps. Building on previous work using social media data to analyze migration responses to external shocks, we test the hypothesis that COVID-related travel restrictions reduced migrant stock relative to expected migration without such restrictions using estimates of migrants drawn from Facebook's advertising platform and dynamic panel models. We focus on four key origin countries in North and West Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Morocco, and Senegal) and on their 23 key destination countries. Between February and June 2020, we estimate that a destination country implementing a month-long total entry ban on arrivals from Côte d'Ivoire, Algeria, Morocco, or Senegal might have expected a 3.39% reduction in migrant stock from the restricted country compared with the counterfactual in which no travel restrictions were implemented. However, when broader societal disruptions of the pandemic are accounted for, we estimate that countries implementing travel restrictions might paradoxically have expected an increase in migrant stock. In this context, travel restrictions do not appear to have effectively curbed migration and could have resulted in outcomes opposite their intended effects.

Ten years after ImageNet: a 360° perspective on artificial intelligence.

It is 10 years since neural networks made their spectacular comeback. Prompted by this anniversary, we take a holistic perspective on artificial intelligence (AI). Supervised learning for cognitive tasks is effectively solved-provided we have enough high-quality labelled data. However, deep neural network models are not easily interpretable, and thus the debate between blackbox and whitebox modelling has come to the fore. The rise of attention networks, self-supervised learning, generative modelling and graph neural networks has widened the application space of AI. Deep learning has also propelled the return of reinforcement learning as a core building block of autonomous decision-making systems. The possible harms made possible by new AI technologies have raised socio-technical issues such as transparency, fairness and accountability. The dominance of AI by Big Tech who control talent, computing resources, and most importantly, data may lead to an extreme AI divide. Despite the recent dramatic and unexpected success in AI-driven conversational agents, progress in much-heralded flagship projects like self-driving vehicles remains elusive. Care must be taken to moderate the rhetoric surrounding the field and align engineering progress with scientific principles.

Using Facebook advertising data to describe the socio-economic situation of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

While the fighting in the Syrian civil war has mostly stopped, an estimated 5.6 million Syrians remain living in neighboring countries. Of these, an estimated 1.5 million are sheltering in Lebanon. Ongoing efforts by organizations such as UNHCR to support the refugee population are often ineffective in reaching those most in need. According to UNHCR's 2019 Vulnerability Assessment of Syrian Refugees Report (VASyR), only 44% of the Syrian refugee families eligible for multipurpose cash assistance were provided with help, as the others were not captured in the data. In this project, we are investigating the use of non-traditional data, derived from Facebook advertising data, for population level vulnerability assessment. In a nutshell, Facebook provides advertisers with an estimate of how many of its users match certain targeting criteria, e.g., how many Facebook users currently living in Beirut are "living abroad," aged 18-34, speak Arabic, and primarily use an iOS device. We evaluate the use of such audience estimates to describe the spatial variation in the socioeconomic situation of Syrian refugees across Lebanon. Using data from VASyR as ground truth, we find that iOS device usage explains 90% of the out-of-sample variance in poverty across the Lebanese governorates. However, evaluating predictions at a smaller spatial resolution also indicate limits related to sparsity, as Facebook, for privacy reasons, does not provide audience estimates for fewer than 1,000 users. Furthermore, comparing the population distribution by age and gender of Facebook users with that of the Syrian refugees from VASyR suggests an under-representation of Syrian women on the social media platform. This work adds to growing body of literature demonstrating the value of anonymous and aggregate Facebook advertising data for analysing large-scale humanitarian crises and migration events.

Using social media advertisement data to monitor the gender gap in STEM: opportunities and challenges.

Boosting the number of women and girls entering careers involving STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths) is crucial to achieving gender equality, one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Girls and women tend to gravitate away from STEM fields at multiple stages from childhood through mid-career. The leaky pipeline is a metaphor often used to describe the loss of women in STEM and arguably other fields before reaching senior roles. Do interests expressed on social media mirror the leaky pipeline phenomenon? In this article, we collected advertisement data (reach estimates) from Facebook and Instagram disaggregated by US metros, age, gender, and interests related to STEM. We computed the Gender Gap Index (GGI) for each US metro and age group. We found that on Instagram, the GGIs for interest in Science decrease as users' age increases, suggesting that relatively there is evidence that that women, compared to men, are losing interest in STEM at older ages. In particular, we find that on Instagram, there are plausible relative trends but implausible absolute levels. Nevertheless, is this enough to conclude that online data available from Instagram mirror the leaky pipeline phenomenon? To scrutinize this, we compared the GGIs for an interest in Science with the GGIs for placebo interests unrelated to STEM. We found that the GGIs for placebo interests follow similar age patterns as the GGIs for the interest in Science across US metros. Second, we attempted to control for the time spent on the platform by computing a usage intensity gender ratio based on the difference between daily and monthly active users. This analysis showed that the usage intensity gender ratio is higher among teenagers (13-17 years) than other older age groups, suggesting that teenage girls are more engaged on the platform that teenage boys. We hypothesize that usage intensity differences, rather than inherent interest changes, might create the illusion of a leaky pipeline. Despite the previously demonstrated value and huge potential of social media advertisement data to study social phenomena, we conclude that there is little evidence that this novel data source can measure the decline in interest in STEM for young women in the USA.

A Framework for Estimating Migrant Stocks Using Digital Traces and Survey Data: An Application in the United Kingdom.

An accurate estimation of international migration is hampered by a lack of timely and comprehensive data, and by the use of different definitions and measures of migration in different countries. In an effort to address this situation, we complement traditional data sources for the United Kingdom with social media data: our aim is to understand whether information from digital traces can help measure international migration. The Bayesian framework proposed is used to combine data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Facebook Advertising Platform to study the number of European migrants in the United Kingdom, with the aim of producing more accurate estimates of the numbers of European migrants. The overarching model is divided into a Theory-Based Model of migration and a Measurement Error Model. We review the quality of the LFS and Facebook data, paying particular attention to the biases of these sources. The results indicate visible yet uncertain differences between model estimates using the Bayesian framework and individual sources. Sensitivity analysis techniques are used to evaluate the quality of the model. The advantages and limitations of this approach, which can be applied in other contexts, are discussed. We cannot necessarily trust any individual source, but combining them through modeling offers valuable insights.

Correction: Precision Public Health Campaign: Delivering Persuasive Messages to Relevant Segments Through Targeted Advertisements on Social Media.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/22313.].

Precision Public Health Campaign: Delivering Persuasive Messages to Relevant Segments Through Targeted Advertisements on Social Media.

Although established marketing techniques have been applied to design more effective health campaigns, more often than not, the same message is broadcasted to large populations, irrespective of unique characteristics. As individual digital device use has increased, so have individual digital footprints, creating potential opportunities for targeted digital health interventions. We propose a novel precision public health campaign framework to structure and standardize the process of designing and delivering tailored health messages to target particular population segments using social media-targeted advertising tools. Our framework consists of five stages: defining a campaign goal, priority audience, and evaluation metrics; splitting the target audience into smaller segments; tailoring the message for each segment and conducting a pilot test; running the health campaign formally; and evaluating the performance of the campaigns. We have demonstrated how the framework works through 2 case studies. The precision public health campaign framework has the potential to support higher population uptake and engagement rates by encouraging a more standardized, concise, efficient, and targeted approach to public health campaign development.

Knowledge and Anxiety about COVID-19 in the State of Qatar, and the Middle East and North Africa Region-A Cross Sectional Study.

While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic wreaked havoc across the globe, we have witnessed substantial mis- and disinformation regarding various aspects of the disease. We conducted a cross-sectional study using a self-administered questionnaire for the general public (recruited via social media) and healthcare workers (recruited via email) from the State of Qatar, and the Middle East and North Africa region to understand the knowledge of and anxiety levels around COVID-19 (April-June 2020) during the early stage of the pandemic. The final dataset used for the analysis comprised of 1658 questionnaires (53.0% of 3129 received questionnaires; 1337 [80.6%] from the general public survey and 321 [19.4%] from the healthcare survey). Knowledge about COVID-19 was significantly different across the two survey populations, with a much higher proportion of healthcare workers possessing better COVID-19 knowledge than the general public (62.9% vs. 30.0%, p < 0.0001). A reverse effect was observed for anxiety, with a higher proportion of very anxious (or really frightened) respondents among the general public compared to healthcare workers (27.5% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.0001). A higher proportion of the general public tended to overestimate their chance of dying if they become ill with COVID-19, with 251 (18.7%) reporting the chance of dying (once COVID-19 positive) to be ≥25% versus 19 (5.9%) of healthcare workers (p < 0.0001). Good knowledge about COVID-19 was associated with low levels of anxiety. Panic and unfounded anxiety, as well as casual and carefree attitudes, can propel risk taking and mistake-making, thereby increasing vulnerability. It is important that governments, public health agencies, healthcare workers, and civil society organizations keep themselves updated regarding scientific developments and that they relay messages to the community in an honest, transparent, unbiased, and timely manner.

Correction: Monitoring of the Venezuelan exodus through Facebook's advertising platform.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229175.].

Monitoring of the Venezuelan exodus through Facebook's advertising platform.

Venezuela is going through the worst economical, political and social crisis in its modern history. Basic products like food or medicine are scarce and hyperinflation is combined with economic depression. This situation is creating an unprecedented refugee and migrant crisis in the region. Governments and international agencies have not been able to consistently leverage reliable information using traditional methods. Therefore, to organize and deploy any kind of humanitarian response, it is crucial to evaluate new methodologies to measure the number and location of Venezuelan refugees and migrants across Latin America. In this paper, we propose to use Facebook's advertising platform as an additional data source for monitoring the ongoing crisis. We estimate and validate national and sub-national numbers of refugees and migrants and break-down their socio-economic profiles to further understand the complexity of the phenomenon. Although limitations exist, we believe that the presented methodology can be of value for real-time assessment of refugee and migrant crises world-wide.

Lifestyle Disease Surveillance Using Population Search Behavior: Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: As the process of producing official health statistics for lifestyle diseases is slow, researchers have explored using Web search data as a proxy for lifestyle disease surveillance. Existing studies, however, are prone to at least one of the following issues: ad-hoc keyword selection, overfitting, insufficient predictive evaluation, lack of generalization, and failure to compare against trivial baselines. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to (1) employ a corrective approach improving previous methods; (2) study the key limitations in using Google Trends for lifestyle disease surveillance; and (3) test the generalizability of our methodology to other countries beyond the United States. METHODS: For each of the target variables (diabetes, obesity, and exercise), prevalence rates were collected. After a rigorous keyword selection process, data from Google Trends were collected. These data were denormalized to form spatio-temporal indices. L1-regularized regression models were trained to predict prevalence rates from denormalized Google Trends indices. Models were tested on a held-out set and compared against baselines from the literature as well as a trivial last year equals this year baseline. A similar analysis was done using a multivariate spatio-temporal model where the previous year's prevalence was included as a covariate. This model was modified to create a time-lagged regression analysis framework. Finally, a hierarchical time-lagged multivariate spatio-temporal model was created to account for subnational trends in the data. The model trained on US data was, then, applied in a transfer learning framework to Canada. RESULTS: In the US context, our proposed models beat the performances of the prior work, as well as the trivial baselines. In terms of the mean absolute error (MAE), the best of our proposed models yields 24% improvement (0.72-0.55; P<.001) for diabetes; 18% improvement (1.20-0.99; P=.001) for obesity, and 34% improvement (2.89-1.95; P<.001) for exercise. Our proposed across-country transfer learning framework also shows promising results with an average Spearman and Pearson correlation of 0.70 for diabetes and 0.90 and 0.91 for obesity, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although our proposed models beat the baselines, we find the modeling of lifestyle diseases to be a challenging problem, one that requires an abundance of data as well as creative modeling strategies. In doing so, this study shows a low-to-moderate validity of Google Trends in the context of lifestyle disease surveillance, even when applying novel corrective approaches, including a proposed denormalization scheme. We envision qualitative analyses to be a more practical use of Google Trends in the context of lifestyle disease surveillance. For the quantitative analyses, the highest utility of using Google Trends is in the context of transfer learning where low-resource countries could benefit from high-resource countries by using proxy models.

Quantifying international human mobility patterns using Facebook Network data.

Quantifying global international mobility patterns can improve migration governance. Despite decades of calls by the international community to improve international migration statistics, the availability of timely and disaggregated data about long-term and short-term migration at the global level is still very limited. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of using non-traditional data sources to fill existing gaps in migration statistics. To this end, we use anonymised and publicly available data provided by Facebook's advertising platform. Facebook's advertising platform classifies its users as "lived in country X" if they previously lived in country X, and now live in a different country. Drawing on statistics about Facebook Network users (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and the Audience Network) who have lived abroad and applying a sample bias correction method, we estimate the number of Facebook Network (FN) "migrants" in 119 countries of residence and in two time periods by age, gender, and country of previous residence. The correction method estimates the probability of a person being a FN user based on age, sex, and country of current and previous residence. We further estimate the correlation between FN-derived migration estimates and reference official migration statistics. By comparing FN-derived migration estimates in two different time periods, January-February and August-September 2018, we successfully capture the increase in Venezuelan migrants in Colombia and Spain in 2018. FN-derived migration estimates cannot replace official migration statistics, as they are not representative, and the exact methods the FN uses for classifying its users are not known, and might change over time. However, after carefully assessing the validity of the FN-derived estimates by comparing them with data from reliable sources, we conclude that these estimates can be used for trend analysis and early-warning purposes.

Recipe1M+: A Dataset for Learning Cross-Modal Embeddings for Cooking Recipes and Food Images.

In this paper, we introduce Recipe1M+, a new large-scale, structured corpus of over one million cooking recipes and 13 million food images. As the largest publicly available collection of recipe data, Recipe1M+ affords the ability to train high-capacity models on aligned, multi-modal data. Using these data, we train a neural network to learn a joint embedding of recipes and images that yields impressive results on an image-recipe retrieval task. Moreover, we demonstrate that regularization via the addition of a high-level classification objective both improves retrieval performance to rival that of humans and enables semantic vector arithmetic. We postulate that these embeddings will provide a basis for further exploration of the Recipe1M+ dataset and food and cooking in general. Code, data and models are publicly available.

Internet Searches for Medical Symptoms Before Seeking Information on 12-Step Addiction Treatment Programs: A Web-Search Log Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Brief intervention is a critical method for identifying patients with problematic substance use in primary care settings and for motivating them to consider treatment options. However, despite considerable evidence of delay discounting in patients with substance use disorders, most brief advice by physicians focuses on the long-term negative medical consequences, which may not be the best way to motivate patients to seek treatment information. OBJECTIVE: Identification of the specific symptoms that most motivate individuals to seek treatment information may offer insights for further improving brief interventions. To this end, we used anonymized internet search engine data to investigate which medical conditions and symptoms preceded searches for 12-step meeting locators and general 12-step information. METHODS: We extracted all queries made by people in the United States on the Bing search engine from November 2016 to July 2017. These queries were filtered for those who mentioned seeking Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) or Narcotics Anonymous (NA); in addition, queries that contained a medical symptom or condition or a synonym thereof were analyzed. We identified medical symptoms and conditions that predicted searches for seeking treatment at different time lags. Specifically, symptom queries were first determined to be significantly predictive of subsequent 12-step queries if the probability of querying a medical symptom by those who later sought information about the 12-step program exceeded the probability of that same query being made by a comparison group of all other Bing users in the United States. Second, we examined symptom queries preceding queries on the 12-step program at time lags of 0-7 days, 7-14 days, and 14-30 days, where the probability of asking about a medical symptom was greater in the 30-day time window preceding 12-step program information-seeking as compared to all previous times that the symptom was queried. RESULTS: In our sample of 11,784 persons, we found 10 medical symptoms that predicted AA information seeking and 9 symptoms that predicted NA information seeking. Of these symptoms, a substantial number could be categorized as nonsevere in nature. Moreover, when medical symptom persistence was examined across a 1-month time period, a substantial number of nonsevere, yet persistent, symptoms were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that many common or nonsevere medical symptoms and conditions motivate subsequent interest in AA and NA programs. In addition to highlighting severe long-term consequences, brief interventions could be restructured to highlight how increasing substance misuse can worsen discomfort from common medical symptoms in the short term, as well as how these worsening symptoms could exacerbate social embarrassment or decrease physical attractiveness.

Correlated impulses: Using Facebook interests to improve predictions of crime rates in urban areas.

Much research has examined how crime rates vary across urban neighborhoods, focusing particularly on community-level demographic and social characteristics. A parallel line of work has treated crime at the individual level as an expression of certain behavioral patterns (e.g., impulsivity). Little work has considered, however, whether the prevalence of such behavioral patterns in a neighborhood might be predictive of local crime, in large part because such measures are hard to come by and often subjective. The Facebook Advertising API offers a special opportunity to examine this question as it provides an extensive list of "interests" that can be tabulated at various geographic scales. Here we conduct an analysis of the association between the prevalence of interests among the Facebook population of a ZIP code and the local rate of assaults, burglaries, and robberies across 9 highly populated cities in the US. We fit various regression models to predict crime rates as a function of the Facebook and census demographic variables. In general, models using the variables for the interests of the whole adult population on Facebook perform better than those using data on specific demographic groups (such as Males 18-34). In terms of predictive performance, models combining Facebook data with demographic data generally have lower error rates than models using only demographic data. We find that interests associated with media consumption and mating competition are predictive of crime rates above and beyond demographic factors. We discuss how this might integrate with existing criminological theory.

A Social Media Based Examination of the Effects of Counseling Recommendations After Student Deaths on College Campuses.

Student deaths on college campuses, whether brought about by a suicide or an uncontrollable incident, have serious repercussions for the mental wellbeing of students. Consequently, many campus administrators implement post-crisis intervention measures to promote student-centric mental health support. Information about these measures, which we refer to as "counseling recommendations", are often shared via electronic channels, including social media. However, the current ability to assess the effects of these recommendations on post-crisis psychological states is limited. We propose a causal analysis framework to examine the effects of these counseling recommendations after student deaths. We leverage a dataset from 174 Reddit campus communities and ~400M posts of ~350K users. Then we employ statistical modeling and natural language analysis to quantify the psychosocial shifts in behavioral, cognitive, and affective expression of grief in individuals who are "exposed" to (comment on) the counseling recommendations, compared to that in a matched control cohort. Drawing on crisis and psychology research, we find that the exposed individuals show greater grief, psycholinguistic, and social expressiveness, providing evidence of a healing response to crisis and thereby positive psychological effects of the counseling recommendations. We discuss the implications of our work in supporting post-crisis rehabilitation and intervention efforts on college campuses.

Online Health Monitoring using Facebook Advertisement Audience Estimates in the United States: Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: Facebook, the most popular social network with over one billion daily users, provides rich opportunities for its use in the health domain. Though much of Facebook's data are not available to outsiders, the company provides a tool for estimating the audience of Facebook advertisements, which includes aggregated information on the demographics and interests, such as weight loss or dieting, of Facebook users. This paper explores the potential uses of Facebook ad audience estimates for eHealth by studying the following: (1) for what type of health conditions prevalence estimates can be obtained via social media and (2) what type of marker interests are useful in obtaining such estimates, which can then be used for recruitment within online health interventions. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to understand the limitations and capabilities of using Facebook ad audience estimates for public health monitoring and as a recruitment tool for eHealth interventions. METHODS: We use the Facebook Marketing application programming interface to correlate estimated sizes of audiences having health-related interests with public health data. Using several study cases, we identify both potential benefits and challenges in using this tool. RESULTS: We find several limitations in using Facebook ad audience estimates, for example, using placebo interest estimates to control for background level of user activity on the platform. Some Facebook interests such as plus-size clothing show encouraging levels of correlation (r=.74) across the 50 US states; however, we also sometimes find substantial correlations with the placebo interests such as r=.68 between interest in Technology and Obesity prevalence. Furthermore, we find demographic-specific peculiarities in the interests on health-related topics. CONCLUSIONS: Facebook's advertising platform provides aggregate data for more than 190 million US adults. We show how disease-specific marker interests can be used to model prevalence rates in a simple and intuitive manner. However, we also illustrate that building effective marker interests involves some trial-and-error, as many details about Facebook's black box remain opaque.

Computational Approaches Toward Integrating Quantified Self Sensing and Social Media.

The growing amount of data collected by quantified self tools and social media hold great potential for applications in personalized medicine. Whereas the first includes health-related physiological signals, the latter provides insights into a user's behavior. However, the two sources of data have largely been studied in isolation. We analyze public data from users who have chosen to connect their MyFitnessPal and Twitter accounts. We show that a user's diet compliance success, measured via their self-logged food diaries, can be predicted using features derived from social media: linguistic, activity, and social capital. We find that users with more positive affect and a larger social network are more successful in succeeding in their dietary goals. Using a Granger causality methodology, we also show that social media can help predict daily changes in diet compliance success or failure with an accuracy of 77%, that improves over baseline techniques by 17%. We discuss the implications of our work in the design of improved health interventions for behavior change.

Knowledge and perceptions about Zika virus in a Middle East country.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus, an emerging serious infectious disease, is a threat to persons living or travelling to regions where it is currently endemic, and also to contacts of infected individuals. The aim of this study was to assess knowledge about this new public health threat to persons residing in a Middle Eastern country. METHODS: We conducted a survey at several international universities in Qatar to assess knowledge and awareness about this disease. An adapted version of the survey was also conducted using online channels from Qatar. RESULTS: The median age of the 446 participants, was 25 years, 280 (63%) were females, and 32% were from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) or other Middle East countries. Based upon their knowledge about availability of a vaccine, role of mosquitoes and other modes of transmission, and disease complications, we classified respondent's knowledge as "poor" (66%), "basic" (27%) or "broad" (7%). Forty-five (16%) persons with poor knowledge considered themselves to be well-informed. CONCLUSIONS: This report from a sample of persons associated with Middle East educational complex, reveals inadequate knowledge about Zika virus, a serious emerging infectious disease. Although few cases have been reported from the region, future cases are possible, since this area is a transit hub connecting currently infected regions to North America, Europe and Asia. As a preventive measure, an educational program about Zika virus would be valuable, especially for individuals or family members travelling to afflicted regions.