Influence of a changing wave climate on the quality and morphometry of the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes (Gmelin, 1789), along the coasts of NW Iberia.

Wave climate is shifting over the last decades along the Atlantic coasts of Europe ultimately driven by large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability forced by anthropogenic global warming. Changes in wave height and surf zone orbital currents are hypothesized to drive marked shifts in the shape of intertidal organisms such as the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes, whose quality and market price are known to decrease non linearly with the peduncle length: width ratio S. This study evaluates wave trends in NW Iberian Peninsula, using the Spanish Port System 2006-2020 SIMAR wave hindcast. On the other hand, trends in stalked barnacle morphology and quality are estimated from 26 sites at the management regions of Baiona and A Guarda between 2011 and 2020. Results show evidence of temporal changes in barnacle quality and, especially, morphometry caused by simultaneous shifts in winter wave induced orbital currents. Because of the non linear relationship between S and the high quality threshold, large increases in S are usually translated to small reductions in quality. However, we identified a tipping point around S = 2.4 that if surpassed can lead to great drops in barnacle quality. In addition, changes in wave forcing will have different effects at each extraction site, as trends in wave climate are decoupled from barnacle morphometry at steeper sites sheltered from the predominant wave direction. In conclusion, this knowledge could be applied to develop site specific barnacle harvesting strategies based on annual wave climate forecasts. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-024-09838-2.

Climate change in the coastal ocean: shifts in pelagic productivity and regionally diverging dynamics of coastal ecosystems.

Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment-stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock-recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest.

Seasonality of primary productivity affects coastal species more than its magnitude.

While the importance of extreme conditions is recognised, patterns in species' abundances are often interpreted through average environmental conditions within their distributional range. For marine species with pelagic larvae, temperature and phytoplankton concentration are key variables. Along the south coast of South Africa, conspicuous spatial patterns in recruitment rates and the abundances of different mussel species exist, with focal areas characterized by large populations. We studied 15 years of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) satellite data, using spectral analyses to partition their temporal variability over ecologically relevant time periods, including seasonal (101 to 365 days) and intra-seasonal cycles (20 to 100 days). Adult cover and mussel recruitment were measured at 10 sites along the south coast and regression models showed that about 70% of the variability in recruitment and adult cover was explained by seasonal variability in chl-a, while mean annual chl-a and SST only explained 30% of the recruitment, with no significant effect for adult cover. SST and chl-a at two upwelling centres showed less predictable seasonal cycles during the second half of the study period with a significant cooling trend during austral autumn, coinciding with one of the mussel reproductive peaks. This likely reflects recent changes in the Agulhas Current, the world's largest western boundary current, which affects coastal ecosystems by driving upwelling. Similar mechanisms probably operate in other marine systems with the potential to affect the distribution patterns of key ecosystem engineers. We propose that variability in the characteristic timescales of environmental fluctuations can explain the spatial patterns of abundance of foundational species by affecting larval recruitment. This is especially important in a context of global and pervasive climate change, as shifts in the periodicity of environmental fluctuations appear to reflect large scale climatic teleconnections driven by anthropogenic forcing.

Spatio-temporal patterns of northern gannet abundance in a migratory and wintering area.

In marine ecosystems, seabird populations are well monitored, thus allowing their use as indicators of system fluctuations at multiple spatio-temporal scales. Population abundance estimates are essential features of any conservation and management measures and initiatives. Population abundances can be used to delineate the distribution range and foraging grounds of species during both breeding and non-breeding periods, with multi-annual monitoring allowing for the inspection of the temporal variability within key marine areas. Taking advantage of long-term monitoring schemes, we examined the annual abundance patterns of the northern gannet Morus bassanus in its southern European migratory flyway. Here, the presence of a topographical feature (i.e. a submarine canyon system) could influence physical processes (e.g. upwelling, alongshore currents, and riverine inputs), thus oceanographically differentiating canyon and shelf ecosystems within a spatially restricted marine area. We assessed seasonal and long-term trend fluctuations of monthly northern gannet abundance using Generalized Additive Mixed Models, yielding only a strong seasonal effect. Moreover, we jointly tested the effect of the phenology and the spatial domain (canyon versus shelf) on northern gannet abundance using Generalised Linear Mixed Models, accounting for the excess of zeros. Northern gannet abundance was higher during the pre-winter and post-winter migration, corresponding to its southward and northward movements in the NE Atlantic, respectively. The effect of the canyon was only detected during the post-winter migration. By age, adult northern gannets were more abundant in some periods of the year (from October to March, including the pre-winter migration, the wintering and the post-winter migration), whereas juveniles and immatures were especially abundant during the pre-winter period. Our results could provide quantitative baseline information of northern gannet spatio-temporal patterns in a migratory and wintering area important for both research and conservation efforts, given the high conservation value of the area within the Natura 2000 network.

Contrasting environments shape thermal physiology across the spatial range of the sandhopper Talorchestia capensis.

Integrating thermal physiology and species range extent can contribute to a better understanding of the likely effects of climate change on natural populations. Generally, broadly distributed species show variation in thermal physiology between populations. Within their distributional ranges, populations at the edges are assumed to experience more challenging environments than central populations (fundamental niche breadth hypothesis). We have investigated differences in thermal tolerance and thermal sensitivity under increasing/decreasing temperatures among geographically separated populations of the sandhopper Talorchestia capensis along the South African coasts. We tested whether the thermal tolerance and thermal sensitivity of T. capensis differ between central and marginal populations using a non-parametric constraint space analysis. We linked thermal sensitivity to environmental history by using historical climatic data to evaluate whether individual responses to temperature could be related to natural long-term fluctuations in air temperatures. Our results demonstrate that there were significant differences in the thermal response of T. capensis populations to both increasing/decreasing temperatures. Thermal sensitivity (for increasing temperatures only) was negatively related to temperature variability and positively related to temperature predictability. Two different models fitted the geographical distribution of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance. Our results confirm that widespread species show differences in physiology among populations by providing evidence of contrasting thermal responses in individuals subject to different environmental conditions at the limits of the species' spatial range. When considering the complex interactions between individual physiology and species ranges, it is not sufficient to consider mean environmental temperatures, or even temperature variability; the predictability of that variability may be critical.

Role of upwelling on larval dispersal and productivity of gooseneck barnacle populations in the Cantabrian Sea: management implications.

The effect of coastal upwelling on the recruitment and connectivity of coastal marine populations has rarely been characterized to a level of detail to be included into sound fishery management strategies. The gooseneck barnacle (Pollicipes pollicipes) fishery at the Cantabrian Coast (Northern Spain) is located at the fringes of the NW Spanish Upwelling system. This fishery is being co-managed through a fine-scale, interspersed set of protected rocks where each rock receives a distinct level of protection. Such interspersion is potentially beneficial, but the extent to which such spacing is consistent with mean larval dispersal distances is as yet unknown. We have simulated the spread of gooseneck barnacle larvae in the Central Cantabrian Coast using a high-resolution time-series of current profiles measured at a nearshore location. During a year of high upwelling activity (2009), theoretical recruitment success was 94% with peak recruitment predicted 56 km west of the emission point. However, for a year of low upwelling activity (2011) theoretical recruitment success dropped to 15.4% and peak recruitment was expected 13 km east of the emission point. This is consistent with a positive correlation between catch rates and the Integrated Upwelling Index, using a 4-year lag to allow recruits to reach commercial size. Furthermore, a net long-term westward larval transport was estimated by means of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) sequences for five populations in the Cantabrian Sea. Our results call into question the role of long distance dispersal, driven by the mesoscale processes in the area, in gooseneck barnacle populations and point to the prevalent role of small-scale, asymmetric connectivity more consistent with the typical scale of the co-management process in this fishery.